Dow Intraday charts 15 Dec - 19 Dec

[ChartMan]

I agree, OneEye, a horrid day. Looks good as a chart,until you read the numbers on the side. A day for taking note of the RSI ratios, the first RSI downtrend break being a case in point. A 20 point rise in RSI for a 5 point rise in the price dictateda non starter. You could have taken the PD bottom, and got out at 35, maybe... Some comfort in closing at HOD....

 

[sidinuk]

With triple witching on Friday we might not see much movement until Monday now. It might break before then but really it's most likely to remain range bound until next week. Even then with the holiday and thin volumes it's not likely to do much.

Roll on January which normally brings some bigger ranges to trade.

This has been the worst year since 1998 for average trading ranges on the indexes so if it hasn't been as profitable as previous years thats why, unless your a buy and hold (hope!) investor that is.

 

[jaichopra]

Chart Man
a question if i may?i read this somewhere and since you have a lot of knowledge with the TA, i was wondering if you could shed any light on this.
i have read that when a price is playing at bollinger top and the rsi reading is near/above 70 then it is time to sell.
on dailyand weekly dow chart i see just that. your guidance on this kindly please. many thanks jai

 

[ChartMan]

That sounds right, but I have no experience of Bollinger bands, or daily timescales. Do your homework and research these facts over the last 3 years before you throw money at something that looks good at a first glance.....What works today will probably work a bit different tomorrow....

 

[rossored]

Strictly speaking, its not triple witching tomorrow in the US because futures contracts rolled over last week from 200312 to 200403.

 

[sidinuk]

oh there's always one isn't there! Actually it's technically quadruple witching with the new single stock futures expiring as well.

The dec futures are still tradable until tomorrow (when they do expire), even though daytraders will be using the march one now.

 

[rossored]

Ooooh, you *****! (female dog)

 

[Skimbleshanks]

You called? :cheesy: :cheesy: :cheesy:

Although the futures did roll over last Thursday, tomorrow is the last day that they can be traded - so there will always be a lot of jostling as the big boys get out of their positions. And there are always those who like to leave things to the very last minute ... A morning to be avoided, unless you like being whipped and taking small profits here and there.

 

[sidinuk]

there will always be a lot of jostling as the big boys get out of their positions,... a morning to be avoided, unless you like being whipped

Are you still talking about trading, Skimbleshanks?

 

[tradesmart]

UBS provided an encouraging outlook for stocks, setting an 11,000 12-month target for the Dow. Strategist Gary Gordon, who is forecasting 1,150 for the S&P 500 said he expects the Dow to outperform because it contains more defensive names and he believes defensive stocks to outperform cyclical issues in 2004.

These kind of comments are driving the market today.....

However, markets never go up in a straight line......

(10215!! - anyone for a short........?!? )

 

[tradesmart]

Such is the power of this renewed bull-run that the crossing of the 10k barrier seems to have unleashed, that we're breaking out from the long established uptrend channel on the daily chart.....

Anyone still talking about it being "just a rally in the overall bear market" now...?

 

[bgold]

What kinda day is this? I have just returned from copius Xmas lunch and all I see is a 50 pt rush after the open, and no reason to be long anymore after 16:00 top 10212. Certainly no reason to be short either!

What's next? (ok, with so much booz in body, rest assured that broker screen remains untouched).

 

[rossored]

Nice call on 10232 earlier in the c/room CM....lucky guess I suppose but nice lucky call

 

[cj12]

can someone send me a link to get in to the chat room

CJ

 

[rossored]

Go to the front page on T2W - there is a link in the top right to the chatroom.

 

[tradesmart]

Bulls rool ok?!

covered short from 10215 for b/e...plainly going the wrong way.....reversed to long with happier results.........now short from 10255.........have I blown it?.......will have a rare overnight hold but could easily get stopped out by a futs spike imho.......

but no one said it was gonna be easy........

60min chart says we're about a short term top imho and the fib retracement possibilities are interesting.......

any views?

 

[ChartMan]

The channel rules! ok! I think the bottom line can be discounted for now... I've put in a new top line.......Could resistance be at 64?
As TS wrote about Fibs, Ive put in the major Fib line- 32% = 10K.
9600, 9850 10K 10,100,10,250. All major support/res points. Uncanny. I'm not sure about the holding a short overnight, tho. ES finished strong, and both closing at HOD would makae me a bit nervous, to say the least. Best prey they don't find Santa Laden tonight. As I said above, we could bounce down off 64....

 

[ChartMan]

Nice easy day, with a long on the pullback to 164 for a relatively safe entry close to the open. I know it's a tad risky taking a trade in the first 30 mins, but sometimes the numbers and TA just make sense. Now a straight ride to the top at 250... Patience is a virtue. The price bounced off the 100MA all the way up, with a final push into the close. Out either on the D/top at 250, or picking the" bump top" ND.
Not quite a ton, but not far off....

 

[anmolway]

hi everyone i tried to get into the chatroom from the t2win homepage but when getting there it just says connecting to server, please wait. it doesn't seem to do anything else - am i missing something?

cheers

 

[ChartMan]

If you have a firewall running, temporarily disable it until you are in the room..... maybe?