Dow Intraday Charts 29 Nov - 03 Dec

[ChartMan]

I'm sure your Butt-in is very nice and I don't mind at all.That's how I got out of the starting blocks many years ago, butting in and giving my opionion and waiting for others to correct me.Good way to learn.Sort of puts your neck on the block, or, in my case, B***s on the line and when you get it wrong, you think a bit harder next time. :cheesy:
Tough day so far.

 

[gollum]

Hi, just thought i would stick my neck in here.. Not able to contribute much to these threads at present but just wanted to say it makes very good reading in between chart watching. For what its worth I myself have called it a day after 1) -13 2) +23 incl. fees.
Looking forward to more posts as I am picking up an awful lot from these...... Rgds...G

 

[TraderTony]

Tuesday 30th November 2004

9:45 1) L 10480. Late entry for a quick CT up to 100 ema before the numbers. Movung up but very jumpy here.
9:48 EXIT: +10 on target.

Passed on the reversal back down just ahead of the numbers at 10 but it would have been a beauty. I'm really not sure it isn't better just to ignore releases and trade straight through. Soon right back at the 100 ema once numbers out though so who knows. Big swings at the moment.

10:21 2) S 10460. Ok, let's see if it's going keep down now. No!
10:22 EXIT: -10. Oh dear - that wasn't very friendly. That's the one I dread when looking for trend trades - entry at the end of a biggest bar with an immediate complete reversal the next bar. Ugly. But it soon came back down again off the 100.

Jumpy prices all day so far. I'm not seeing any clean set ups, but clearly should be short below the 100 ema!!

12:13 3) L 10462. Finally an entry, assuming it is now breaking above the 100 ema after flip flopping around for a good while. Moving nicely. Struggling to get through pivot at 483. Pops through but smashes back down. I'm out.
12:22 EXIT: +16. Probably too soon as it could easily make a run on 500 level now but the pivot really seemed to be holding it back.

This could be a flag for a second leg up but to date it is falling quite convincingly. Stalls back at 100 ema. And slipping below.

13:00 4) L 10465. On possible pull back to upside from just below 100 ema. Going no where. 3 ticks up then slams down. Very nervous in this trade without much profit in the bank so far today. Then finally moves up. Needs to hold and follow through. Nope. Coming down again. Stop to b/e +1. Just held first test. Desperately slow here.
13:20 EXIT: +5. Stopped out on swing low but market going no where at the moment so happy to take 5.

It's coming down.

13:53 5) L 10453. CT on PD for 10. Not looking good. Rollercoaster. This is taking far too long for a quick counter trend trade.
14:16: EXIT: +1. Scratched out.

Looks like the big triangle on the 10m could be about to break down here. Or not. I can't make head nor tail of this action. At least I knew I was getting it wrong yesterday - today I'm clueless. Too tough for me.

+22 from 5
+17 for the day after commissions
+309 for November after commissions (16 trading days)

 

[debs]

Gollum: Welcome to the thread. I can’t contribute anything or offer any insights as I am just a novice as well. But I have to thank Trader Tony for encouraging me to post my trades online. I am finding this very helpful. Like CM says, sometimes you have to put your ‘neck’ (or whatever) on the line, in order to make progress. I really appreciate any feedback I receive. So best of luck to you.

TUE 30 NOV

9:49 ENTER short at 10476 (ema-10482, sl-10502). Entry on first PB to ema.

12:02 EXIT at 10442 for a gain of 34 pts. I should have got out earlier (see below). I’m exiting now as it looks as if the DOW, after crossing up thru the ema, has done a PB and may move higher.

12:16 –Dow has now pushed up to 10470 – so I have no regrets about exiting early at 12:02. I often get confused about whether I should be using my judgement or sticking with a more mechanical approach. In this case, using judgement paid off.

Only one trade today. I had 2 further opportunities, but I was too indecisive, (which probably turned out for the best). But at least I came away with 34 points (excl fees) and if I was doing this for real, I would be very happy with that result.

NOTE: I did consider exiting my first trade at 11:08 (10434) for a gain of 42 pts. As far as I can see, there were 4 signals.

1. There is a TLB (sorry, I don’t have a chart to show you where I drew my TL)
2. The CCI has just moved up above zero.
3. The magic ‘32’ level has been reached. I still find it amazing how 32 and 64 do have some significance. (Thank-you CM for pointing this out to us).
4. Finally, anything over 30 points is a good profit for me and even tho it is nice to have a long run like yesterday, there is something to be said for ‘grabbing it while you can’.

Debs

 

[ChartMan]

I'd say 17 for the day was a result and a good tally for the month TT
Still unsure about this but CCI is basing and several days divergence on RSI might just be the key.Could it be a rolling top? Not seen one for a long. long time...so no jumping in on a wild guess.

 

[TraderTony]

Debs - you go girl - you're on a roll!

CM - thanks, I'm pleased with the monthly total and feel I'm making progress (albeit of a rather eratic nature). Just need to convert it into ££ with bigger contract sizes now.

Thanks as always to all who post results, ideas, feedback, sympathy etc - it is much appreciated.

 

[ChartMan]

Debs, you did well, but I see your entry as a gamble , which sometimes pays off, sometimes it doesn't.You're right about the TLB. It's not something I've paid too much attention to, but could be worthy of further investigation along the lines of "how long should it be in force before you can assume it's going to be a decision point"? i.e. the 3 pk divergences should be over 25 mins minimum. Maybe 60 mins? It needs back analysis. I think the only safe trade today would have been a long off the TLB at 432. But what about an exit? The peak at 12:20 looked like it may have developed into a bull flag but the D. top an hour later on 464 would have killed that and called for a swift exit.
Not an easy day at all.

 

[sall]

Only one trade today, CM could you explain the term D top when you get a chance, Thanks

 

[jackjones]

Only one trade today, CM could you explain the term D top when you get a chance, Thanks

hi, was the 29/11 considered a choppy day for the dow?

 

[ChartMan]

D top = double top.

29/11 I'd say was a good range, not choppy.

 

[debs]

Debs, you did well, but I see your entry as a gamble , which sometimes pays off, sometimes it doesn't..

Hi CM...I need help. I often feel that my trades are ‘gambles’, so I think I will be ‘paper-trading’ for a long time to come.

Could you give me a few pointers as to why you thought my entry point yesterday was a gamble. I based the entry on 3 things:
1. after the rise back to the ema and failure to cross it, the Dow clearly fell back down.
2. I had a resistance line marked in at 10480 (from previous days).
3. the upper DOW had hit (and turned down from) the upper AIQ band. (I know you are familiar with AIQ, and the upper band often signifies an overbought position).

(At the end of this, I will try to attach a chart....if I succeed, the red line is the 100 ema and the blue lines are the AIQ bands).

Was it a ‘gamble’ because it was too early in the session to identify a trend? Or was the move back up to the ema too large to be considered a ‘pullback’?
I see on TTs post that there was some news out about this time. This was a complete oversight on my part – I hadn’t checked for any economic announcements – is this another reason why the entry was a gamble?

However, if I hadn’t entered at 9:49, I would have gone short at 10:06, or failing that, at 10:27. At both these times, the DOW moved up to and fell back from the ema.

Also, I can see why it would be good to go long at 432, but I have been working on the basis that if the price is under the 100ema, I should be short. I have only been entering a trade if the DOW crosses the ema and is confirmed by a PB. As a beginner, I thought I should be ‘trading with the trend’, rather than doing counter-trend trades. Therefore my earlier entry seemed more correct.

I'm sorry if these are really stupid questions........Debs

 

[tradesmart]

Seems to me that the most notable current feature on the charts just now is the 140 point triangle that has been painstakingly constructed over the last two sessions, and ‘decision time’ is definitely approaching as it winds-up towards the sharp end.

It looks bearish, but sentiment has been generally bullish despite the last two down days, so will be looking to trade the break as it occurs and it could be a nice move….first day of the month is often ‘up’, but watch the break imho

ISM data at 15.00gmt could be the catalyst……

Traders warned the markets were at a vital juncture that would decide the fate of the current rally. Arthur Cashin, managing director at UBS, said it was "time to put up or shut up, resume the rally by starting a new up-leg or risk rolling over and giving back all the gains".

So what's new.......

 

[ChartMan]

600 anyone?

 

[ChartMan]

600 anyone?

maybe, but closing on 3pk nd

 

[ChartMan]

maybe, but closing on 3pk nd

looking for an entry at 32/ 100ema

 

[tradesmart]

Thought it might be your kind of day CM.....!....... :cheesy:

I've closed for a ton +++ and I'll be back for the rest later......

I've taken note of that 'gap up' out of the triangle, but maybe not to be closed today....

(but you never know...... )

 

[debs]

WED 1 DEC

10:23 ENTER long at 10498. The market seems quite bullish and the DOW is still 20 pts above the ema, but I don’t want to miss out, so I’m taking a chance.

I can see a small DB (double bottom), but it might be too small to have any significance. As the ema is so far away, I can’t set the sl at ema-20 as I normally do, as that would give a potential loss of 40 pts, so I will place it just under the ema at 10475 (23 pts away).

Should have been at 485, the low of the mini pullback....


This entry is a ‘gamble’. I have to ask myself if I would take this risk if I wasn’t paper-trading. Well, if I had actually banked the profits recorded on the previous 2 days, then YES, I would give this a go. But I reluctantly admit that I shouldn’t let previous results influence my decisions on the current trade.

11:58: Oh dear...I have realised too late that the Dow hit resistance at the ‘64’ level. I am very annoyed that I didn’t exit. If it moves down thru the ema, I’m out.

Good decision after an error...

12:23 EXIT at 10563 for gain of 65 pts. Patience was rewarded and I got a second chance to exit at 10563. I’m out quickly this time, even tho it looks like it may be going higher.

You missed the 3 pk ND...

One trade for 65 pts (excl costs). The Dow pulled back to the ema a few times after this, but it looked like the PBs were accompanied with NDs. Or maybe I was just too scared to give back any of my earlier gains! This week has been so good that I wouldn’t be surprised if you don’t believe my results. I’m having trouble believing it myself...I’ve been very lucky.

D.

italics by CM

 

[ChartMan]

Debs and others..... taking a big slice out of the market in one hit tends to make people think they are invincible and carry on trying to whip the market. Sadly , it's the punter that gets whipped!! Take a big win and take the rest of the day off!. So what if you miss another 50 points? Chances are you missed losing 50! Taking 65 in one hit is a big one.Have a cuppa and pat yourself on the back.But don't trade any more.Or if you must, make it a small one. :cheesy:
The expanding triangle has come good with another big move out of the starting gate.Debs, you seem to be getting the gambles right..... so I'm promoting you the chief traderess.I think I'm just too cautious.Or is it that I just don't like getting it wrong ?
I think there is a bit of room for upside, taking CCI up to 200 and RSI to 80.Pullback to 64 and another 100 up would do nicely.
I forgot..... I've painted in the rounded top that I mentioned yesterday. Clearly it's failed.But you should take note of where the price was going to go if it had delivered! Track it as it went under 400 and below the 100EMA.

 

[ChartMan]

Self explanatory, I hope. From my comments during the day, I was looking for 600 then saw the 3pk ND across 60 + 55 mins so time to exit.
Note how I built the targets as the day progressed. starting with T1from the first pullback at 464. Then T2 from that tiny pullback at 490. Third one from the big pullback ( still just 20 points!!) gave me 570. My 600 came from the consolidation around 550 that I thought might turn into a bull flag but didn't. Anyway, the out at 564 on the third peak was good for an easy 100+. Why bother about what comes next.? You need to be razor sharp to carry on and most are still punch drunk from their success. Another one of those up only days. :cheesy:
I marked up Debs post in italics with some comments- It keeps it more readable that way....hope you don'dt mind.

 

[yourf16]

My technical analysis is giving a warning signal, as this was quite unexpected. But i might be wrong as i have been recently. Seems to me the last burst before the fall. The falling RSI and the new high is noticeable.

The oil fall was seen even yesterday, technically todays fall was clear at yesterdays close of crude. So i don't see todays rise has anything to do with falling oil.

my stop at 580 closed me out so if it goes down from here i'll be pretty disappointed. anybody else in the same situation ?