Dow Intraday Charts 20 Jan - 23 Jan

[bonsai]

of course.

its blowing in the wind ?

 

[tradesmart]

wind and 'doggy' breath - best left alone...........


(the Atkins diet that is )

700 was the target - we may have got close enough for now......

just the width of a badly drawn trendline away........?

Regards..

Mystic Meg

 

[jsd]

hmmm, looking at the charts i feel we are due for a pull back today 10560 downside target at least, we nudged the long term weekly resistance and retraced ending the day flat, doji.... indecision although we have the bull triangle and the dow has been resistant to the downside over last few days managing to hold the 10600 for 3 closes i think its a con . so going short.

jd

 

[tradesmart]

Well it’s still within the triangle – going long at the small PD bottoms and short at the ND tops has delivered a few points in the narrow range.

I suspect it wants to test 10660+ again – every new high recently has been retested pronto…

The Nasdaq and S&P are +ve and MSFT is steaming…….

 

[jsd]

still not convinced i'd need to see the cash trading above 10622, its having another look at 10600

jd

 

[tradesmart]

Hmmm - long triangle that, but the writing was on the wall when resistance held at 10645 on the third test of the top line with ND (1 min chart)........and yesterdays southerly target is likely to be met today.....

 

[anmolway]

Gone long at dow 10min support line - not confident though
571

 

[tradesmart]

The 60min chart gives a different take on the action, and it looks like it'll test the lower trendline to be generally in line with the 10min chart triangle target.....

I'll speculate that we may have another touch of the upper line to retest the highs.....by no means a dead cert though...

edit - anmolway - good luck with your long - I won't enter any new trades until 19.30 ish - it tends to be a bit slow about this time and there could be more downside..still short

 

[jsd]

closed short @ 10546, on spikey action development

jd

 

[TheBramble]

I went long at 10639. You should see MY spikey development!!!

 

[tradesmart]

5-waves down on the 10min chart/small PD - long at 545......(stoploss engaged/no dead certs )

575 min on the cards?!

edit - well done TheBramble - good entry - was putting some shandys in the fridge and missed the best of the 'spike'..... :cheesy:

well they do move very fast........!!!!!

nice short cover jsd - got out at a similar level myself...

 

[mombasa]

Nice call on the 60 min TS.

 

[tradesmart]

Mom - my trendlines are getting straighter - CM's influence!....

 

[tradesmart]

oooooer!! - It seems have wanted to test the lower trendline from the 10min chart that OES posted the other day - pulled long for b/e when it baulked at the 64...

If this is the bottom, there is PD developing on the 10min......but not many buyers about on a Friday night in a falling market......

edit - well defined 3-peak PD bottoms on the Nasdaq Comp and S&P - a brave few buyers are diving in..........but I'll leave it until Monday now......!

 

[ChartMan]

A combination of mine and TS's trend lines. Notice the earlier support got cancelled by a drop through. Sensible line though, at the time. Just goes to show one needs to have an adaptive system. It's no good drawing in a line and saying that's it.... I think we're inthe right ball park now, but the question remaining is which drop is the false one? 10,400 or tonight's 527? That will define the lower support line. The two resistance lines are converging, so they'll end up right either way... (maybe).
One thing is for sure- if this channel stays open the daily trading range/channel width has expanded to 150 points.

 

[One Eyed Shark]

:cheesy: :cheesy: Wish I had placed a bit more money on the back of the 10 min channel I posted earlier in the week, perfect bounce !.

I still find it harder to get as many points in these trending days compared to what I draw in more rangebound sessions, tend to call tops and bottoms too early and take a smaller profit, then watch it run on for another bundle of points.

I was short YM @ 10612 , closed for 40 pts then sat and watched as it blew off another 60 points, couldnt get back in till 20:15 as I was constantly looking for the reversal.

Wish there was an easy fix for the psycology of this game, very easy to say "trade what you see" , but switching the guessing games off that go on in your head is not as easy as it sounds.

Anybody know a fix ?

 

[ChartMan]

Nice ride down... with targets all the way. The entry was fairly easy, taking the eventual triangle break and the pullback to support, minimising stop distance. Taking the pullback, as opposed to the drop through avoids being caught by a "false break". Never worth the few extra points.... If you can get a look at ES vol, 1 min, every trough was accompanied by an ever increasing volume bar, right down to T3. Whatever happened to 764?

 

[mombasa]

OES - same here m8 - wasn't trading today for various reasons but have been looking at the charts since abt 5.00 PM and thinking abt what I would have done - and the answer is the same a u. Would have got out on the potential 'V' at 10,600 and kept on looking for a bottom - would have found it too with all that RSI divergence with disastrous results !

These last few day's seem to have been full of 'V' and inv h&s bounces of support and that's what I would have been looking for again - I've gone thru it over and over again and can't see the answer to this one. The only way to have avoided it today would have been to wait for it to develop and then fail (whilst watching the RSI/Price ratio). But, on other days that would have been the wrong thing to do since it would have risen fast and u'd have missed the boat.

Maybe one should only count on a V bottom on a long, sharp drop or at the end of 5 waves - not that that would have worked today

Any thoughts anyone - all I know is that I would have been lucky to break even today

 

[tradesmart]

Nice post OES and thanks to yourself and CM for the trendlines ......

The only fix is patience, patience, and more patience.....

We must stalk our prey.......

Its a Mammoth problem, but we will win.....

CM - 764 (and 700!!) coming soon - we got the numbers right - just the wrong week.....

Mom - the 5 waves up/down seem to be calling the tops/ bottoms reliably - you just have to be patient enough to let the 'extremity' pattern develop - thus my own problem with the late long this evening.....

but you can't win them all.......

 

[mombasa]

CM, isn't that PD between 16.00 and 1800 - time to close no?