Dow Intraday Charts 19 Jul - 23 Jul

Hi CM

Please Please Please don't take my post's as criticism, far from it, if it wasn't for your trading rules i'd still be doing the day job. because of your methods i make much better trading decisions than i have for the past 2 and a bit years. I know you say "you shouldn't" take 3 pk or 25 min diversion as entry trades, but generally i do tend to swing trade them intraday (if they occur) and profit relatively well from them, all thanks to you...

Carry on the excellent work, i , and i'm sure many people on the board value your nightly reports as extremely valuable and a very good learning curve. :idea:

maybe it's just me getting annoyed with the market behaviour (as it on the 10K area)

Sorry if i caused offence :(

Best Regards

Spencer :cheesy:
 
No , you didn't cause offense at all. It's nice to see you can take the hits...... There are a lot of people out there that act like "bears with a sore head" when they take some losses, and then take it out on our members by 'slagging them off' at the slightest opportunity. I don't know why, but they never seem to appear on this thread..... :cheesy:
As the 3rd peak came in 10 mins early, I held for a little longer and too the 4th at 45.And now to look for an entry, but time is moving on... and there may not be much on offer. Time to take a smaller stake then.
 
"help you preserve your capital for a little while longer than you otherwise might have"
Click to expand...

aw, shucks CM - you know very well that we can all make a fortune trading the Dow to your t/a rules, and I am personally very grateful........

we just have to remember that no system works perfectly in volatile markets and that we have to face being wrong every now and again, but a tight stop (20 points max..!) prevents us from being too wrong...

just cut the losers very quickly and let the winners run for a bit , that's all we have to do......! :cheesy:
 
Take a look at RSI V price right now.... it's perfectly ballanced. That means a trade either was is not going to "catch you out". It also means it's a waste of time guessing!
 
From the 10 min chart, the next long looks to be on a break of 50...
TS - I always run stops of 200.... That must be where I'm going wrong... :(
 
Looking good, but there's that 64 not far away and ES is trying for 1100.... A long may be short lived, but a break and pull back to 64 will stimulate thoughts of an overnight "tickler" :cheesy:
 
OK this move has 25 in it from the pullback, if it happens, but still be wary of heading into the close if you're going to be flat at the end.]
 
Thought that it might make it to the 50% fib retracement level of the down move at around 10090 ish, but maybe tomorrow…….

Bottom geometry doesn’t look complete though – a bit of backtracking likely soon imho……

speculation......speculation........ :rolleyes:
 
Just to recap my thoughts from 7pm.... No perfect 3pk out, looked for a 4th at the target time but that din't happen either.The ensuing bull flag down to 32 gave a target of 70.The bounce on 32 with the third trough was a gift.( but I didn't take it 'cos I was waffling on here...The break and pullback at 60 from 64 gave a target of 85. On the way to 85, a 3 pk ND to developed at T1 ( 70). T2 (85) is not going to happen.It's not black and white for me either. Right or wrong, the overnight flutter is off.
 
One step at a time TS if it didn't make 85, T2, it won't make 90. :cheesy:
Actually, 73 is close enough to the 50% fib to be "valid". Near enough is almost always good enough.
 
smarwood said:
Hi Chartman.

I've been following your excellent daily thread for a while now and seem to have grasped most of your explanations. :idea:

I Picked up the ND at 10232 (over 25 mins) and went short. :LOL:

However, could you explain why the 2 points i've marked on the attached chart "a" and "b" where not classed as a PD, as both where divergences of over 25 mins. as a result i closed out at point "a". then did a "gamble" trade at point "b". :eek:

Thanks in advance

Spencer
Click to expand...

Hi Chartman / Smarwood...On your post I cannot see any chart attachment. Nothing is appearing in the 'thumbnail' boxes on my screen. Can you tell me how I can access the charts please? many thanks, debs
 
Hi CM. My trading and my confidence has improved a lot since taking account of divergences, S/R, and the 100ma, Its a pity though that its not possible to daytrade with D.A. sometimes I miss opp. because of the S.B. price being a long way away from cash. Anyway that apart I am very happy I found this thread, wish I had found it earlier., many thanks.

Eddy.
 
Thanks to TS for showing me the "real " 10 min picture. Now it all fits. Just goes to prove that I can forget things too. ... Now I can clearly see the regular 3 channels.
 

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Opening triangle target failed at 48, producing a PD bottom with 'promise' over 45 mins and the break through 64. I've already discussed the rest above. Take note about the Weak RSI. This is taken relative to each up move. From my earlier comments, you can see that sometimes it's just not that easy to decide and things are far from cut and dried. I hope I have given you some insight as to the sort of things you need to be thinking about as things move on .If you're tempted to go one way, just try and think of a good excuse as to why you shouldn't. If you're stuck in the middle, stay out. It's not hard, trust me.Even my temptation to have an overnight flutter was scuppered. So what if it gaps up over night? By the time you wake up, it's history and that's where it should be consigned to. :cheesy:
Finally, please understand I don't have all the answers. It would be nice if I did..... I still learn from others on this BB.
 

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Great analysis CM. Looking back now and also looking at your analysis of the day i would of said for me personally i would have found up till where you have T1 marked at around 9990 better to trade. After that it all seems a bit blurred. Can see it looking back but not at the time.

Went short from 10013 but got out late at 9995 to make 18 points. I saw the long at T1 but didn't take it, acted too slow and was a bit cautious. However i went short a couple of time after at around T2 and T3 with confirmation of ND but got burnt as it kept going for another wave up.

I had to stop at 8 and missed the shorting opportunity that i was looking for, prob wouldn't have taken it anyway due to uncertainty installed by the last 2 failed short trades before it! :(

In total im 40 points down on the day. Could ave maybe broken even if was around to trade before 4. Oh well a loss i would say the price of learning quite alot today.

See you all tmro

hammer :cheesy:
 
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