Dow Intraday Charts 15 Nov - 19 Nov

[Bill]

Hi

You know this is a silly game......

First trade after I got home at 5:00 after seeing another of my phantom triangles with target at about 540. It got nowhere near but at least I put in a BE stop which saved any embarrassment. The next was more successful with a bounce from the ema100 -15 line and an exit, a little too soon, from a touch on the +15 line for +10. I did take a chance on the last nd entry which insisted on teasing me by moving in and out of profit. I finally gave in and closed it for BE.

I'm sure there's someone out there watching.....
"That's it ,Ok, Bill's taken a trade.... Now make sure we keep the price at his BE for the next hour or so.... Really P him off..."

Still +10 on such a naff day is just fine by me )

Bill

+-15 ema Rules are

1. Short if price crosses 100ema and touches/crosses 100ema+15.
2. Long if price crosses 100ema and touches 100ema-15.
3. Short if nd and price is 100ema +15 [or v close]
4. Long if pd and price is 100ema -15 [or v close]
5. Don't trade in the 1st hour
6. Stop losses above/below obvious SR
7. Don't open a trade in the last hour

+ a few more under development

 

[frugi]

Don't worry Bill I think it was a tough day (no doubt Cman saw an easy 50!)
I made, erm, +2 - another week's data feed paid for, yay

 

[ChartMan]

Are my eyes deceiving me or is this a bull triangle? Of course, I'd like to see 664 for tomorrow's close, but I'm not a gambling man.Upternd support is 532 and that could be tested tomorow.Could be a H&S and heading for 350/400...

 

[ChartMan]

Frugi, I might be good on the odd occasion, but I can't make a silk purse out of a Sow's ear. I can't believe anyone on SB could have made money today, so well done Bill with +10. I wonder what TT got?.... Short of taking the triple low at 555 ( Chinese Luck?) I can't really see anything worth taking for the rest of the session. It's the sort of day where you toss a coin for long/short and pick a time and then sit and wait it out until you lose patience, or you steal a lucky 10 points. I'm not saying Bill's 10 was luck either by that reference.
By the way Bill, you obviously haven't heard about the "Stop Goblins" that are employed by all SB's.....Their sole purpose in life is to Gobble your stops..... :cheesy:

 

[TraderTony]

Thursday 18th November 2004

Down to earth with a bang. Too many trades in a direction less market. Specifically, I was looking for with-the-trend continuation trades when there was no trend. I should have been looking for divergences back into the 100 ema, not continuations away from it...

10:17 1) S 10568. After bounce following gap close. Back to LOD where it bounces sharply for possible double bottom with PD. Not good.
10:21 EXIT: +2. Choppy action with no clear break of previous low. This could run back up.

10:33 2) S 10566. Possible pull back down again but it seems to have got stuck in a range here so probably not a sensible trade. Not looking good at all. Flat market = stay out.
10:35 EXIT: -10. How stupid was that.

10:42 3) L 10577. Try the long side this time.
10:42 EXIT: -5.

Perhaps today will be pay back day?

10:44 4) L 10577. Try once more but this is going horribly wrong. Makes some upside but not really any strength behind the move yet. Soon back to entry and looking weak. Tries another push but cannot break up beyond 585 (+7). Then breaks up. Needs to hold now, take out HOD, push to 600 and take a run at yesterday's high (yeah right). Instead ugly reversal bar at 10:58 from HOD sends it crashing back down. This is brutal. Down, down, down.
11:02 EXIT: b/e. That was painful. The exit was the reversal bar from the double top at HOD for +10. +15 to b/e is not very good when you are already down for the day.

11:10 5) L 10584. Chasing a long bar in choppy conditions - very risky.
11:18 EXIT: -9.

I need to walk away for a bit here - this is turning into a kamikaze mission.

12:56 6) S 10579. On possible breakdown on range. Moves down then goes flat at pivot. Then down again but possible PD forming on double bottom.
13:21 EXIT: +8. Not going to give it all back this time.

13:32 7) S 10572. Try again. Down sharply to 10565 then bounces hard with more possible PD. Just not getting any follow through. And all the way back to entry and loss. What a mess I'm making of this. On such a tight day I should have exited as soon as the PD formed.
13:41 EXIT: -1

14:01 8) S 10580. Try on the ND from above the 100 ema this time with tight stop. Going no where still though. Then breaks down. But another ugly reversal bar as it breaks previous swing low. Arghh it's coming all the way back up.
14:23 EXIT +10. No exit signal, just nervous of giving points back on a day with no follow through when the price has stalled.

14:50 Huge up bar - maybe this will be the break. It was a good move but I didn't get an entry.

-5 from 8
-13 for the day after commissions
+166 for November so far after commissions (10 days of trading)

 

[powderhound]

Hi all, i have read your posts with a lot of interest recently and will continue to do so. I dont have a lot to contribute as many of you clearly have a great deal more insight into trading than i do. I am curious about a couple of things,

i use finspreds i know that the spreads are better with some other providers, i dont want to use capital as thay seem to new for now,, would anybody care to offewr some advice in this ?

also what real time price and chart packages do you find the most reliable and cost effective

regards

 

[ChartMan]

I'm going to McDonalds in Paris tonight on business so no reports tonight. Nice work if you can get it I suppose.
Oddly enough, I'm taking them a chip.........no joke... :cheesy:

 

[wasp]

I'm just glad I'm stuck behind a bar on some of the days of the week!

well, I was yesterday anyhow, not too happy about it today though! Just got home and seem to have missed all the fun, think I might leave it till after 7 now...

 

[TraderTony]

Friday 19th November 2004

I just sat by and watched that beautiful opening drop. Will it eventually go down to close the gap at 500 from 2 days ago?

10:08 1) S 10530. Eventually get in but have missed so much now. Dropping beautifully though. Nice. Will target 500.
10:14 EXIT: +30 on 500 target. Wow - that's the way to start the day. Actually, I may have got out too soon but 500 is a big number so I won't feel bad about that exit.

10:21 2) L 10499. Going for a quick 10 point counter trend on the PD from the reversal bar.
10:23 EXIT: +10. May have got out far too quickly but I'm wary of a counter trend trade after such a strong move and looking back, 10 seems a good target for CT plays.

10:35 3) S 10491. For another move down. Some movement.
10:37 EXIT: b/e on indicator hook with PD.

10:37 4) L 10491. Stop and reverse for an attempt at another quick 10.
10:39 EXIT: +10. This one could run up further though.

Missed next two short entries but the strength of the down move seems to have gone now. OK, I've done no where near as well as anyone who got short on the break down from the 100 ema at the open and stayed short, but I'm off with the family this evening so will take my 50 points and run there.

+50 from 4
+46 for the day after commissions
+212 for November so far after commissions (11 days of trading)

Will posts charts over the weekend.

Good luck for the rest of the day to all.

 

[tradesmart]

Nice one TTony..!

Couldn’t believe that the Dow Futs were holding up at around 590 at lunchtime with the European markets heading south led by the big pharmas, so took a small short – wish I’d taken a big one now…….!........

The triangle that predicted the fall has met its target, but the buyers aren’t exactly rushing in are they….?

Will be interested to see if they attack 600 again soon or let it drift south for a bit…...

Thanksgiving next week, so turkey stocks should do well......

edit - 21.19 (2nd chart attached) is that a bull flag I see going into the close..?

 

[Bill]

Hi

....Turkey stocks TS? So! Bernard Matthews it is then... Bootiful

I'm well aware there will be some mega success stories today but look at it from my point of view. I can't trade until about 5:15 so if you can just blank out everything before that you will see that for me today was not unlike yesterday with a 30 point trading range.

Initially it looked like a down day so I was looking for shorting opportunities and the approach to 100ema looked a likely candidate. Again the Dow forces were against me and the trade went in and out of profit. I saw what appeared to be another dodgey tri [see chart] with target circa 440 so I hung onto the trade for a while, well several hours to be precise and when I decided the tri was just another figment of my imagination I was very happy to close it at BE. Whaddya know, it then went down to 440 as predicted !!
I decided to take a dec long [after 8:00pm btw] when the price touched ema100 -15 which delivered me 3 points just before the bell. So all was not lost after all.

+ 3 today and not a Stop Goblin in sight. :cheesy:

Regards

Bill

 

[wasp]

well, stayed out all day in the end, couldn't see much more after 7, so decided to stick with the no trades = no losses idea. hope everyone else had a good day?

Just a quick query though...

What is everyones/anyones suggestion for days like these? When it goes nowhere near the 100ema like today tuesday and wenesday, do you just give it half hour and follow the gap or wait for it to draew back near the ema for more definite indication? Just jumping on and following seems a bit of a gamble to me?

 

[ChartMan]

Bit of a no brainer as support and 100MA went. Do we need to wait until we get 3 days' divergence to get a bottom? At the least I'd wnat to wait till CCI came up through zero....

 

[ChartMan]

"What are these"... they should be bear flags, but they have the form of bull flags....Bizarre. Strange day, to say the least.

 

[ChartMan]

There's an old saying, jump on a short, wait for a long..... I'd be happier taking a gamble on a short rather than a long as generally shorts go down quick whilst longs take their time. As you can see from the action, it takes ages to bottom out... Gambling on a long can rapidly get you into big trouble if the price decides to dive, as it has a habit of doing so faster than a whor*** draws coming down. :cheesy: