Dow Intraday Charts 04 Oct - 08 Oct

[Bill]

I do like a happy ending...​

I was very relieved to see the last long come back to break even otherwise all my hard won points would have been down the drain. I could have picked up a little profit from the last trade but I wasn't about to gamble that late in the day. Mr D Jones must have had a hand in that I think. As I've always said, what a nice bloke he must have been

+22 ta very much!

Bill

+-15 ema Rules are

1. Short if price crosses 100ema and touches/crosses 100ema+15
2. Long if price crosses 100ema and touches 100ema-15.
3. Short if nd and price is 100ema +15 [or v close]
4. Long if pd and price is 100ema -15 [or v close]
5. Don't trade in the 1st hour
6. Stop losses above/below obvious SR
7. Don't open a trade in the last hour

 

[ChartMan]

Minor adjustment to the channel lines and now a 4 way split.... Who called it 160 today?. .. Good call! :cheesy:

 

[ChartMan]

Two views, same result. Either you see it as a bull flag that fails the final support or you see it as a triangle.( and the SR Switch). The flag has a target of 210, the triangle 210. Just note the size of the pullback from the peak at 205 to the effective DB at 190 = 15 points.Why close at T1? Because it was res. at yesterday's close, OS and short term ND. Worth a short too as others noted, although their expectation was a little high at 225..... Expectations are all well and good, but be ready to modify them when confronted with firm evidence ( the triangle /bull flag target).
The bottom was a tad tricky, showing double PD but no big deal in taking the first at 164, being only 6 off the eventual bottom. Why bother waiting to see if there's more to come? It at least gives you a breather to evaluate the situation more closely. As it happens, the second PD formed another triangle, target T2 at 178.

 

[justyn]

Chartman

Worth a short too as others noted

What chat room are you using when you refer to "others" ? Don't seem to see you in the T2W trading room very often now.

Justyn.

 

[fazalv]

FWIW...the 160 'guess' was mine...

 

[FetteredChinos]

knackers. day trade stopped out for +5 yesterday.

wasnt expecting a 60 point sell-off though. was stopped by my 10,160 though...(im claiming that one lol)
nasty.


still favouring the bullish side for today, 10,300 seems a long way off doesnt it.

will unload part of my long at 10,230 and let the rest run.

here's hoping

FC

 

[ChartMan]

Not a chatroom Justyn, just previous comments on this thread.

 

[justyn]

Oil climbed above the $51 mark yesterday, could explain the sell off in the afternoon.

Justyn.

 

[FetteredChinos]

afternoon all!!

whippy day at the open on the Dow today.

i guess the markets liked the Oil figures that came out....

now will it break out of its down trend and have a proper crack at 10,300 today..

looking to close my long (from 10,197 yesterday) at 10,260 , and then scale in shorts above that. stop-loss at 10,350. looking for downward movement into thursday.

FC

 

[FetteredChinos]

sheesh! what goes up, must come down.

30 point swings in next to no time.

this is like FX !

 

[FetteredChinos]

right, we're north of the 100 EMA at last.

next levels to overcome (in my opinion) are 10,200 (natch) then 10,230 , 10,260 and then 10,300


latter two providing opportunities to short, i believe...

 

[trendie]

2 more hours of this, and it will become a NR7 day.

 

[trendie]

2 more hours of this, and it will become a NR7 day.

then again, perhaps not.

 

[ChartMan]

Fettered Cheeso is becoming a bit of a demon... 200 then 230. :cheesy:

 

[TheBramble]

Fettered Cheeso is becoming a bit of a demon... 200 then 230. :cheesy:

Oh Yeah!!! Well let's see if old Fetid Cheesy makes 260 & 300!!!

Mind you, he did suggest taking shorts at these levels, so he's on the money whatever happens...

FC - ever thought of selling trading systems....?

 

[TraderTony]

Wednesday 6th October 2004

What a day. Manage to stay patient for hours then all the move comes in one go right at the end and I miss the whole lot. Really really depressing.

Choppy start to the day.

11:11 1) S 10168 on TLB down off 100 ema. Barely moved.
11:20 EXIT: -5. Jeez.

Not as outright flat as many recent periods, but instead just oscillating in a 30 point range back and forward across the 100 ema with support on DJ at 64. Will wait for a clear breakout (otherwise fade the moves to ema +15 like Bill).

12:37 Finally breaks out of range to upside but not much obvious volume or conviction.

13:04 Pulls back to 100 ema. Then flat again. Then down a bit. Then up a bit. This market is just unreal at the moment - definitely ripe for Bill's +/-15 system (although it is barely even making those levels).

14:28 Finally a big move up off a retracement to the 100 ema to new HOD (just) but I am still sitting out. TL support on the 10m RSI is still holding the market up. 90 minutes to go - surely it will break out of this 35 point range now?

15:07 New HOD. At last. Missed the move - I was tempted but it was still too flat.

This is starting to feel too tough for me. A 35 point range into the last hour then one straight sharp move up. Anyone who worked out how to take that one and leave all the other moves is a far far better trader than I am. There was a re-entry possible at 13:41ish but this was too late in the day for me.

Looks like I need to take a few days off and go back to paper trading for a while.

-5 from 1

-6 for day incl. commission

-37 for October incl. commission.

 

[tradesmart]

Well called Fettuccine - definitely in line for the 'Mystic Meg' award this week.......(and a liberal sprinkling of parmesan......)

and my Dow Comp entry is looking like a winner........!........ :cheesy:

Two days too early.........

Note that the Dow waits for oil trading to close, then has a little rally............there must be a link...!?

Neat the way a small double-bottom on the 60min chart RSI confirmed support for a long entry......

Edit - TTony - well done and brave of you to keep your trading diaries coming in difficult times, and I know that everyone and their Mutha is offering advice......!?

One more suggestion that might help - try taking long entries when support is confirmed by RSI PD in at least two chart time frames (maybe 1/5min) and the same with resistance confirmed by RSI ND for short entries - might help - it works for me.......

Regards

 

[Bill]

Hi

It looks like I'm not the only one with a sticker on his backside saying 'kick me!'.

It looked for all the world like one of those days when the price would drift nicely between the channel boundaries. The first test of 100ema -15 came at 4:00pm but that was before I got home but the next short at the +15 line worked just fine using a guessed limit order while I was AFK. Only +13 but anything with a plus in front is OK by me.

Next opportunity at 8:08, well it was only just past the hour and a breach of rule 7 wasn't it. What a move in the last hour! Now if we could get that sort of thing on a regular basis I'd be back with the more conventional TA. Another dollar on the oil price and the price rallies? Does that mean that there is less likelihood of an interest rate rise which the markets like. I don't watch interest rate futures. Can anyone shed any light on this?

Not too worried today, you just can't win em all.

Total -7

Regards Bill

PS Notice the price using the +15 channel as support after 8:00pm

+-15 ema Rules are

1. Short if price crosses 100ema and touches/crosses 100ema+15
2. Long if price crosses 100ema and touches 100ema-15.
3. Short if nd and price is 100ema +15 [or v close]
4. Long if pd and price is 100ema -15 [or v close]
5. Don't trade in the 1st hour
6. Stop losses above/below obvious SR
7. Don't open a trade in the last hour

 

[Bill]

Tony

Great posts once again this week. I noticed a few references the the channel trades I don't want you to be mislead by anthing I'm doing. Be clear that for me this is an experiment using Capital Spreads simulator. I don't have confidence to trade it for real.

That said the whole exercise has taught me a lot. By using a set of pre-defined rules [and they don't have to be this set] it somehow takes the emotion out of the trade. Once a rule is met the trade is executed regardless of my instincts/emotions. Well that's how it works most of the time.

The other thing is that it is more of a scalping style with maximum gains in the 20-25 range per trade. Use of direct access and no spread would I feel help a lot. For example today you could add 5pts per trade which would have put me ahead, just. Yestrerday 33 instead of 23, big difference even after the broker gets paid.

Anyway don't give up Tony keep posting. suspect you do have quite a lot of people following your posts and you wouldn't want to let em down would you?

Bill

 

[ChartMan]

Maybe time to sit on hands a wait with great patience..... TS- wise words.
Channel still going with FC's 260 looking ok, just, but 300? Sometime, yes, but needs so good movement down in the indicators to give breathing room upstairs.Channel theory alone says it should get there. It's just a matter of when, and what happens between now and then..... I guess if 264 goes, then 300 will come.