trendie
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Bill,
thanks for encouragement ( need it after last week )
What do your rules say about MAX loss for a trade ?
Also, if trade becomes profitable, do you allow it room to breathe, ie; allow it to go negative, with expectation for bigger profit later ?
Or do you not allow a profitable trade to go negative.
What if the "obvious S/R" is far away ? Do you scale down entry?
Or dont enter at all ?
thanks for encouragement ( need it after last week )
What do your rules say about MAX loss for a trade ?
Also, if trade becomes profitable, do you allow it room to breathe, ie; allow it to go negative, with expectation for bigger profit later ?
Or do you not allow a profitable trade to go negative.
What if the "obvious S/R" is far away ? Do you scale down entry?
Or dont enter at all ?
Bill
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Hi Trendie
Don't need much encouragement to discuss the approach
That said I do tend to split the trade [or double it if you like] if it goes against me and another entry presents itself. Quite often a Rule 1 is followed by a rule 3 [or 2 & 4] in which case I would end up with 2 trades [or 2 half trades running].
On the subject of splitting trades I have sometimes taken a trade and rolled half the amount to a BE Stop and cashed the other half for say 10 or 12 points. Not sure if this is the best way as some of the back testing [very simplistic] suggests that it's better to wait for a proper exit for the whole stake.
As I keep saying, this is experimental and trades are simulated on capitalspreads [although I have run it real once or twice] until I either scrap the idea or can consistently average 20points per day.
The stops and money management schemes are constantly being changed and hopefully improved so I'm always open to suggestions. The one thing I am more and more convinced of is that the 100ema +-15 channel plays a significant role as support and resistance in day trading. The trick is to convert that into successful trades.
Thanks for asking Trendie
Regards Bill
Don't need much encouragement to discuss the approach
Not definitive values but I try to keep it around 25 i.e. 20pts + 5 spread. Less if there is SR near.
If it goes > 10 in profit I'm likely to move the stop to BE. I feel safer that way but of course it sometimes goes wrong i.e. takes the stop and reverses. If there is another indicator after the stop has been taken I would probably re-enter.
I'm less likely to enter if I can't see a nice position for the stop.
That said I do tend to split the trade [or double it if you like] if it goes against me and another entry presents itself. Quite often a Rule 1 is followed by a rule 3 [or 2 & 4] in which case I would end up with 2 trades [or 2 half trades running].
On the subject of splitting trades I have sometimes taken a trade and rolled half the amount to a BE Stop and cashed the other half for say 10 or 12 points. Not sure if this is the best way as some of the back testing [very simplistic] suggests that it's better to wait for a proper exit for the whole stake.
As I keep saying, this is experimental and trades are simulated on capitalspreads [although I have run it real once or twice] until I either scrap the idea or can consistently average 20points per day.
The stops and money management schemes are constantly being changed and hopefully improved so I'm always open to suggestions. The one thing I am more and more convinced of is that the 100ema +-15 channel plays a significant role as support and resistance in day trading. The trick is to convert that into successful trades.
Thanks for asking Trendie
Regards Bill
TrendieRoom to breathe? Yes, if you have some clear cut targets to work from.They will automatically need some breathing space.If your target is 30 or more points away, you should allow a 20 point pull back maximum. There may be other obstacles in the way preventing 20 points pullback, ie 32 or 64 may be just a few points away and they often act as support as we all know.I think it's largely down to experience, armed with a few bits of knowledge that will define whether you let a position run, or chicken out, to re-enter later.
If you're on Direct, it's criminal to let a winner fall back to being a loser- close it out for +2 or 3 guaranteeing a net profit. If you're on SB, it's a lot harder to close out if there is a chance of a longer move as you are wasting 10-15 points on the spread.Tough game.
If you're on Direct, it's criminal to let a winner fall back to being a loser- close it out for +2 or 3 guaranteeing a net profit. If you're on SB, it's a lot harder to close out if there is a chance of a longer move as you are wasting 10-15 points on the spread.Tough game.
TraderTony
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Monday 4th October 2004
This is a really painful day to post - the wheels well and truly came off today as I continued to trade too long this morning in the absence of any clear action. The results have confirmed that I still have a long long way to go. I had naively started to believe that I'd put days like today behind me...
9:53 1) L 10255 on break out to new highs with TLB but after divergence. Straight into loss.
9:55 EXIT -5. Good start again. I actually got out too soon - right on the low without a TLB on RSI when the bar closed. It carried on up afterwards.
9:59 2) L 10255. Trading through the numbers today! Got the +3 and +6 off but then it came back on me.
10:07 EXIT +1 (plus 1 at +3, 1 at +6).
Getting multiple ND on the new highs that are being formed without any real upside movement after the initial gap up.
10:35 3) L 10239. TLB up from just above the 100 ema. Barely moving here.
10:41 EXIT +1 (plus 1 at +3). Again, too eager to close - I think I get too jumpy when I start with a losing trade.
10:54 4) L 10237 on second TLB up off 100 ema but there is just no follow through. Get the +3 and the +6 then it pulls all the way back.
11:05 EXIT b/e (plus 1 at +3, 1 at +6). Stopped out on bottom tick of a pull back again before it surged up. Damn damn damn. This isn't working for me today.
11:20 5) L 10246. Try again.
11:23 EXIT -7. Jeez - this is awful. That's my worst trade in nearly two weeks. Trying to force it when the market is flat.
11:30 6) L 10241. And again.
11:34 EXIT -8. What is going on. All the good work of the last couple of weeks is coming unstitched here.
Three trades out of six that have not gone even 1 point in my favour. My two biggest losing trades since I started this approach a couple of weeks ago. I haven't been beaten up this badly in a range for a long time. Need to stop and re-group.
Back at 13:50 to see if I can salvage anything from the day. Still absolutely no decent movement.
14:26 7) L 10236. TLB up after a move back to the long side. Moved quickly to +4 then straight down again.
14:34 EXIT: -3 (plus 1 at +3). Horrible.
No moves until right at the end of the day.
A shocker for me.
-21 from 7 on the main runner
-8 from 3's
-10 from 6's
-28 including commission from main runner
-40 for October so far (incl. comm)
This is a really painful day to post - the wheels well and truly came off today as I continued to trade too long this morning in the absence of any clear action. The results have confirmed that I still have a long long way to go. I had naively started to believe that I'd put days like today behind me...
9:53 1) L 10255 on break out to new highs with TLB but after divergence. Straight into loss.
9:55 EXIT -5. Good start again. I actually got out too soon - right on the low without a TLB on RSI when the bar closed. It carried on up afterwards.
9:59 2) L 10255. Trading through the numbers today! Got the +3 and +6 off but then it came back on me.
10:07 EXIT +1 (plus 1 at +3, 1 at +6).
Getting multiple ND on the new highs that are being formed without any real upside movement after the initial gap up.
10:35 3) L 10239. TLB up from just above the 100 ema. Barely moving here.
10:41 EXIT +1 (plus 1 at +3). Again, too eager to close - I think I get too jumpy when I start with a losing trade.
10:54 4) L 10237 on second TLB up off 100 ema but there is just no follow through. Get the +3 and the +6 then it pulls all the way back.
11:05 EXIT b/e (plus 1 at +3, 1 at +6). Stopped out on bottom tick of a pull back again before it surged up. Damn damn damn. This isn't working for me today.
11:20 5) L 10246. Try again.
11:23 EXIT -7. Jeez - this is awful. That's my worst trade in nearly two weeks. Trying to force it when the market is flat.
11:30 6) L 10241. And again.
11:34 EXIT -8. What is going on. All the good work of the last couple of weeks is coming unstitched here.
Three trades out of six that have not gone even 1 point in my favour. My two biggest losing trades since I started this approach a couple of weeks ago. I haven't been beaten up this badly in a range for a long time. Need to stop and re-group.
Back at 13:50 to see if I can salvage anything from the day. Still absolutely no decent movement.
14:26 7) L 10236. TLB up after a move back to the long side. Moved quickly to +4 then straight down again.
14:34 EXIT: -3 (plus 1 at +3). Horrible.
No moves until right at the end of the day.
A shocker for me.
-21 from 7 on the main runner
-8 from 3's
-10 from 6's
-28 including commission from main runner
-40 for October so far (incl. comm)
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Trader Tony,
Just an observation and I may be wrong, but I think you were doing better when you were taking fewer trades and sitting with them. At least that will keep you from being clobbered in tight ranging choppy days like yesterday. If you're going down the scalping route it might be an idea to sign up for Mr Marcus's trading session and learn how to take advantage of day's like yesterday.
I only took one trade yesterday and sat on my hands for the rest of the session.
Just an observation and I may be wrong, but I think you were doing better when you were taking fewer trades and sitting with them. At least that will keep you from being clobbered in tight ranging choppy days like yesterday. If you're going down the scalping route it might be an idea to sign up for Mr Marcus's trading session and learn how to take advantage of day's like yesterday.
I only took one trade yesterday and sat on my hands for the rest of the session.
FetteredChinos
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FWIW today, im expecting a dip below 10,200 early on today, followed by a rally, but nothing too substantial, then up some more early on wednesday.
close perhaps around 10,250 today though.
FC
close perhaps around 10,250 today though.
FC
TraderTony
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Mo - thanks for the comments. This is my dilemma! Until yesterday I had been pleased with the results from the shorter term trades I have been taking the past couple of weeks because scalping within the overall framework of CM's approach was still limiting my losses in the tight range days - something I've struggled with in the past - yet riding the winners well when it was moving. It seemed to be a good combination, giving me small losses on the bad days and decent wins on the good ones (for the first few days the biggest loss was just 4 points and the average just over two). However for yesterday, and Friday to a lesser degree, that clearly didn't apply. Against that, if I had taken the one trade yesterday I would have gone long off the early retracements to the 100 ema so I would still have been battered. Whilst I have the discipline to sit with one trade, I feel much more comfortable being able to exit when I feel it is going against me and re-enter again later. For this reason, I was starting to feel I'd made a bit a breakthrough, giving me decent results with a style that seemed to fit my personality. I have been looking at longer time frame charts as suggested by CM but I must confess I feel much happier on the 1m time frame. Looks like it could be back to the drawing board again though.
FetteredChinos
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good luck trendie
i do hope it works out for you.
incidentally, where in your method do you take profits?
being taken out by a 70 point trailing stop is giving a lot back to the market. perhaps half your position at a profit target and then let the rest run ?
i reckon we could see 10,320 tomorrow to trigger the main weekly pattern.
but thats just my personal view, so dont trade off it, or let it cloud your judgement.
FC
i do hope it works out for you.
incidentally, where in your method do you take profits?
being taken out by a 70 point trailing stop is giving a lot back to the market. perhaps half your position at a profit target and then let the rest run ?
i reckon we could see 10,320 tomorrow to trigger the main weekly pattern.
but thats just my personal view, so dont trade off it, or let it cloud your judgement.
FC
trendie
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FetteredChinos said:good luck trendie
i do hope it works out for you.
incidentally, where in your method do you take profits?
being taken out by a 70 point trailing stop is giving a lot back to the market. perhaps half your position at a profit target and then let the rest run ?
i reckon we could see 10,320 tomorrow to trigger the main weekly pattern.
but thats just my personal view, so dont trade off it, or let it cloud your judgement.
FC
because of last weeks fiasco, and over-trading, I am essentially using a sort of Point and Figure, to impose mechanical discipline on myself. ( as per Mark Douglas book )
I have a 70 point ( really a 60-point plus 10 points for the SB spread ) trailing stop.
It will get hit when the market retraces 70 points.
Yesterday, the market fell around 40 points, thats why my stop is now at 10,280 from when I entered.
In addition, I still have my discretionary trades.
You are right, I will be giving back a lot in choppy markets.
I know I can trade, I just "lose it" sometimes. I need to learn to take my losses mechanically.
FetteredChinos
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agreed. learning to love losses is a great thing..
the only danger when losing is trying to make it back (and more) on the next trade.
only get concerned if you have 5 losers on the trot. (obviously this depends on your win %) but you get what i mean..
FC
the only danger when losing is trying to make it back (and more) on the next trade.
only get concerned if you have 5 losers on the trot. (obviously this depends on your win %) but you get what i mean..
FC
nice n smooth
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Chinos
What happened to your Millionaire club v6 still using / testing ?
What happened to your Millionaire club v6 still using / testing ?
FetteredChinos
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blimey, that was a while ago.
kinda gave up on that little fella. i tested it for about 15 trades, and it returned about 150 points after spreads.
it does work, but nothing spectacular. BUT, 15 trades is not a meaningful sample. i could have been lucky...
am currently trading a few other methods at the moment. one a form of a breakout, the other a counter-trend daily system.
on another point,
Dow getting close to dipping below 10,200.
ive got my longs at the ready..
10,195 will do me.....
kinda gave up on that little fella. i tested it for about 15 trades, and it returned about 150 points after spreads.
it does work, but nothing spectacular. BUT, 15 trades is not a meaningful sample. i could have been lucky...
am currently trading a few other methods at the moment. one a form of a breakout, the other a counter-trend daily system.
on another point,
Dow getting close to dipping below 10,200.
ive got my longs at the ready..
10,195 will do me.....
FetteredChinos
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covered short from yesterday for +63 at 10,197 on october futures...
now long from 10,195 on the same futures.
target 10,300+ but first stop 10,260
now long from 10,195 on the same futures.
target 10,300+ but first stop 10,260
trendie
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FC - this does my head in !!
The Dow spiked to 10,270 yesterday. Higher prices were rejected.
Open/Close within lower third of bar = downward pressure.
Another spike possible - I would say unlikely.
I am banking on it being a Pivot High.
The Dow - its goin' DAAAHHHNNN.
The Dow spiked to 10,270 yesterday. Higher prices were rejected.
Open/Close within lower third of bar = downward pressure.
Another spike possible - I would say unlikely.
I am banking on it being a Pivot High.
The Dow - its goin' DAAAHHHNNN.
FetteredChinos
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down maybe to 10,160.
not much further than that , i feel.
not much further than that , i feel.
