Tuesday 5th October 2004
The bad results yesterday psyched me out today. I was determined not to take entries when the 100 ema was flat today, and for the long narrow period before lunch it served me very well. It makes obvious sense, you want to fade pullbacks in a trending market (where the 100 ema should act as support/resistance) and not a flat one (where it is likely to act as the centre line in a channel). The trouble is, I then seemed to become paralysed and missed the action when it finally started to move. If there is a holy grail for me at the moment it must be to keep out when the market is flat and get in when it is moving. It sounds so simple...
9:55 1) S 10189 as we actually seem to be in a downtrend at the moment. Held through numbers (again) and it moved nicely - hitting +19 at peak before exiting for a decent first trade.
10:09 EXIT: +10 (plus 1 at +3, 1 at +6). Not a great exit as right at the peak of the pull back. Could have got out lower on the PD on the low.
10m now O/S and right at its 100 ema. Yesterday's gap now closed. And sure enough, moves all the way back to 100 ema without a TLB back down.
10:36 Possible short on TLB down after the pullback to 100 ema but there was a lot of strength in that up move and with the 10m bouncing up of its 100 ema I will stand aside. It did move down a little but reversed back and moves over the 100 ema for first time in the day. Could be some indecision here as the 100 ema has gone dead flat. The 100 ema keeps knocking it back down, but only in a flat 10 point range. After an hour it finally broke down a little but without much follow through.
12:31 After two hours in a ten point or so range it breaks to upside and HOD and yesterday's LOD. Daily, 10m and 1 m now all above their 100 ema. But just slowly drifted all the way back after an ND just outside the upper 100 ema +15 line (a perfect trade for Bill I hope). Then sideways to downwards just below 100 ema. Could have taken a short on TLB which came really really good and was the trade of the day so far but this time (after taking far too many trades when the 100 ema was flat yesterday) I was too cautious.
14:15 Looking to get back in but starting to get some serious PD bottoms on RSI now.
Mmm - it's all very well sitting on the sidelines when it's flat but I still need to get back in when it starts moving.
14:30 Multiple PD with low right on the 64 on DJ Index. And up it shoots. Amazing! No counter trend entries for me at the moment though. (No entries at all come to mention it this after noon).
14:46 2) S 10162. Finally took one but there does seem to be quite a base building up. Stalled several times at +6 then reversed.
14:53 EXIT: +1 (plus 1 at +3, one at +6). 64 holding like a rock on the DJ!
+11 from 2 on main runner
+6 from 3's
+12 from 6's
+9 from main runner after commission
-31 for October so far after commission
