Dow 2010

Holy Grail 2 said:
This is just my opinion by the way.....but after studying the stock market for many years through Fibonacci and volume charts, I have come to the conclusion that the DOW has only got a limited life span. It started off at around "0" and I believe it will finish at "0" maybe within the next 10 years or so. Why do I say this. Over time we know the DOW always rises. Unfortunately this has produced great quantities of accumulative "Resistance Volume" or "buying volume" over the many years. I believe this "Resistance Volume" since the DOW started it's run (from the beginning) is so great now that it will not be able to support it's own weight. The DOW will be crushed by "Resistance Volume" in the end and Fibonacci rules.........

Also I think "Socionomics" is interesting. What is Socionomics? Socionomics teaches us that what "we" believe are causes are not causes at all but effects and what "we" think are effects are in fact causes. How many times have I seen the DOW move up on "bad news" and move down on "good news". I am beginning to think that "maybe" news or economic data does not move the DOW at all. I think what moves the DOW is just buying and selling volume within set limits of "Support" and "Resistance" levels (Fibonacci). Nothing else. It's all technical. I also believe that the graph that is being drawn by the DOW is only a clever illusion. What I am trying to say is that I don't think the DOW is random at all. It only looks random on a graph. There is evidence that collectively and as a group, humans think in Fibonacci when deciding on certain events. This also applies to the stock market and especially to the DOW.

What do you think my friends?
Click to expand...

I think you are smoking weed:eek:
 
Holy Grail 2 said:
This is just my opinion by the way.....but after studying the stock market for many years through Fibonacci and volume charts, I have come to the conclusion that the DOW has only got a limited life span. It started off at around "0" and I believe it will finish at "0" maybe within the next 10 years or so. Why do I say this. Over time we know the DOW always rises. Unfortunately this has produced great quantities of accumulative "Resistance Volume" or "buying volume" over the many years. I believe this "Resistance Volume" since the DOW started it's run (from the beginning) is so great now that it will not be able to support it's own weight. The DOW will be crushed by "Resistance Volume" in the end and Fibonacci rules.........

Also I think "Socionomics" is interesting. What is Socionomics? Socionomics teaches us that what "we" believe are causes are not causes at all but effects and what "we" think are effects are in fact causes. How many times have I seen the DOW move up on "bad news" and move down on "good news". I am beginning to think that "maybe" news or economic data does not move the DOW at all. I think what moves the DOW is just buying and selling volume within set limits of "Support" and "Resistance" levels (Fibonacci). Nothing else. It's all technical. I also believe that the graph that is being drawn by the DOW is only a clever illusion. What I am trying to say is that I don't think the DOW is random at all. It only looks random on a graph. There is evidence that collectively and as a group, humans think in Fibonacci when deciding on certain events. This also applies to the stock market and especially to the DOW.

What do you think my friends?
Click to expand...

Interesting comments. Response in 2 points:

1. Why do you think Dow will finish at 0? Does that not imply the collapse of Western Civilization? Under what scenario might this occur? Do you realize that there would be virtually no trading markets left for quite some time after such an event?

2. A market is essentially the ongoing collective opinion of all parties who participate in it. Market participants all have different motivations and reasons for why they participate.

Some are hedgers derived from other holdings,
some are professionals representing speculative funds
some are professionals representing general publics wish to "invest"
some are individuals looking for a big score
some are individuals looking for a steady income
some are bankers
some are shoe shine boys from Soho
etc ad infinitum

What they virtually all share is possession of an analysis method that provides indication of what the market will do next.

Since most of these indicators are based on roughly a couple of dozen analysis indicators, they provide a common "system" of what a market may be expected to do.

Group think with occasional shifts of group think make this a wavy (literally?) choppy sea upon which all of its participants sink or swim, or each from time to time. Minimizing the sinking is the best that can be hoped for
 
This coming week is the time to short. Cool down time for the market.
YMM0 10798, CASH 10850


Spcboe said:
aint a permabull, but still looks bullish to me. buying 10500 area is in order.
Click to expand...

Just for my reference... the quote above is from March 13. The Dow Cash was at 10624, currently 10850 and the current mini contract (we've changed since)10573, currently 10798.
 
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Current state of the market looks like a mini version of the previous bubble. what goes up, must come down :p. What do you guys think, sell in May n go away ? :D
altho im moving more towards non directional trading, because I dont get as many trades as i would by just waiting for the next big move :(
 
Chode said:
Current state of the market looks like a mini version of the previous bubble. what goes up, must come down :p. What do you guys think, sell in May n go away ? :D
altho im moving more towards non directional trading, because I dont get as many trades as i would by just waiting for the next big move :(
Click to expand...

I think you could be right this year.. i will indeed be selling in May.. not going away this year though!
 
Perfect opp to set your shorts now against the DOW imo price now 10930. I'm looking to short this for a while at around 8 pounds a point. If it proves me wrong then the DOW has some serious legs.
 
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/us-indices/49210-dow-2009-a-114.html#post1018456

:)
bic3d3qodbz204oig.gif
 
Why is everybody so dome and gloom about things. Surely its made a higher high now so were still in a bull market. Most likely a pullback will come fairly soon but surely thats just a good time to jump in again and enjoy the ride. I think people over think these things too much.
 
The reason for the Doom and Gloom is thus;

Historically markets pullback during the summer period hence the saying sell in May and go away. The warning signs were imo Google and Bank Of America both exceeded estimates yet both dived in after market trading.

In the January pullback companies like HOME and Mothercare amongst others exceeded estimates and yet the PPS dived. Its a sure sign we are at tipping point when good news fails to move the market up. Many will argue the current DOW price reflects these pre 4Q estimates anyway.

Technicals would suggest we are meeting real resistance and this could be a double top on the daily chart.

In short...short!!!
 
Looks like we may be slipping on some Greece. Interestingly the key 61.8% Fib retracment of the entire bear market is at 1226 on the S&P 500. We hit 1220 yesterday and bounced straight off.
 
Spcboe said:
Kutero, what is your interpretation of that info? also, what's your time frame?
Click to expand...

in daily basis.
name of the indicator which is coloured by blue and white colours is "Moving Stoploss" and prepared by a Turkish programmer.

interpretation is very simple..
Sell when the white cut the blue from up, buy from down..:)

bir7d2w6ni79yohpk.gif
 
Note the US is again slow to predict the market. The UK traders called the first pullback in January some 4-5 days before the DOW reacted. Its no fluke that again this happened. The FTSE has been in a confirmed downward spiral for a good week prior to this huge move down on the DOW today. Even when the DOW moved up yesterday the UK chaps were not buying it. I made a fortune today on the FTSE and DOW shorting 20 points under the start of play today and compounding my wins to short more and more. Technicals will give you the picture but with a delay. Only experience in knowing how the market moves seasonally and the warning signs prior to the sell off would have you got you into this early.

Many UK traders have been shorting like crazy. Follow the UK money we invented this game.
 
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