$1532875 current index value of trade
on margin of course
I think he got quite rich and probably enjoying himself on a tropical beach with whatever comforts he desires
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I think he got quite rich and probably enjoying himself on a tropical beach with whatever comforts he desires
firewalker99
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He was calling a 500-point drop or so at that time. That never came. So I guess that settles it
hobby
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Wow, this thread is a little quiet nowadays. I haven't been active on here of late but there was once a time just a few months ago when you'd see scores of posts each day ....the last post is 9.04am today! (and this on a day when the S&P is down a fair old whack - normally would cause a lot of chat)
Have the majority crashed & burned?
Have the majority crashed & burned?
Atilla
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I was thinking the same but I have now switched to carrying out my analysis once a week on Sundays. Still look everyday but don't have the time to write up due to very busy and intense days. This weekend we were away in Worthing...
Good day today for me. Last couple of weeks have been up and down really. Treading water for the DOW to make up it's mind and I think it has.
Breach of 12000 is very significant imo. 11500 is within site. Do expect a rebound but nothing significant. Another interest rate cut by the Fed has to be on the cards. Do remember that the B of P deteriated last time by the fall in the dollar as cost of imports outweighed gains in higher export sales. Hence, rate cuts likely to add to inflation. $108 oil has gotta hurt someone somewhere sooner or later. Stagflation can not be denied like recession.
Anyhow we are now surely heading to 10,000. By End of the Year ---- perhaps...
Any bets?
Inflation in China has reared it's head too. I think after the Olympics China will go into meltdown too.
All we now need is some turf war over the ice caps with radio active fall out to make the place inhabitable to kill off all possible revival of an economic up turn... Russia v Norway? Place your bets! We need more minerals to produce capitalist rubbish no body needs but everybody is prepared to kill for...
Go short dudes, things can only get much worse. :whistling
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Sadly the answer is YES. Most traders are long only; quite a few of the others are bullish but will make a few short trades the small remainder are Bears (probably less than 20%). Even the bulls that are alive and kicking are nursing heavy losses and are quite likely to lose much more by the time the carnage is over.
Buying dips and rallies is all well and good if you are nimble and looking for a few points per trade but for most, it is the road to disaster. The S&P and DOW are where they were before the FED cut interest rates a few weeks ago; oil and gold are soaring; unemployment on the rise; inflation on the rise (despite massive fiddling of the numbers) - the list is endless.
How many people had ever heard of Countrywide, AMBAC or MBIA before they ran into trouble? My guess is very few but they are now being replaced by well known and larger entities like Carlyle Group that has failed to meet margin calls and the banks have started seizing assets of one of its funds.
Many traders say that fundamentals and the economy do not matter and that it is all in the price, I wonder if those that have gone bust still feel that way or not. The value of shares is affected by bond prices and there is no ignoring the fact that bonds are tanking all over the globe, some banks are even refusing to accept Treasuries as collateral.
The level of activity on this thread will return but that will coincide with a rally in the DOW, sadly, some of the contributors will not return for a while.
Love it!
Maybe. But maybe there are just better markets to trade, with cash popping out of the seams!
:cheesy:Cheerful Chappy
Things look bad but everyone can see and hear that....... :cheesy:
Like you said we do expect a rebound and this "could" be within 48hrs ..... At least I'm hoping this little rally pre Euro sesh fails and we get break of 11635 (and 1270 spx). That would then put me on countdown for a bounce/rally of some sort.... maybe a decent one .... who knows Bill McLaren has mentioned we should be on the look out for a potential false break to the downside and slingshot recovery .....we'll see
My guide here is (A) slow stochastics are pretty low ....well under 20 .... the sort of levels which have normally brought in a low within days...
(B) Nikkei forms hammer overnight dipping early and finishing strongly - leading indic ?
(C) We are in that time zone for a low - I mentioned first or second week of March some days ago. We also have backing from ajaskey who sees a low around the middle of the month give or take.
(D) You would expect some kind of reaction at the lows of the year .... but everyone can see that so .............
Whatever I think ......... things are interestingly poised... Bearish swingers probably need a rally intraday which fails ......... but 4 me playing the percentages would say a low maybe within 48hrs ...? Lets see
Edit : Speaking of crashing and burning ............. I see Mr Spitzer has got issues .........
I was thinking the same but I have now switched to carrying out my analysis once a week on Sundays. Still look everyday but don't have the time to write up due to very busy and intense days. This weekend we were away in Worthing...
Good day today for me. Last couple of weeks have been up and down really. Treading water for the DOW to make up it's mind and I think it has.
Breach of 12000 is very significant imo. 11500 is within site. Do expect a rebound but nothing significant. Another interest rate cut by the Fed has to be on the cards. Do remember that the B of P deteriated last time by the fall in the dollar as cost of imports outweighed gains in higher export sales. Hence, rate cuts likely to add to inflation. $108 oil has gotta hurt someone somewhere sooner or later. Stagflation can not be denied like recession.
Anyhow we are now surely heading to 10,000. By End of the Year ---- perhaps...
Any bets?
Inflation in China has reared it's head too. I think after the Olympics China will go into meltdown too.
All we now need is some turf war over the ice caps with radio active fall out to make the place inhabitable to kill off all possible revival of an economic up turn... Russia v Norway? Place your bets! We need more minerals to produce capitalist rubbish no body needs but everybody is prepared to kill for...
Go short dudes, things can only get much worse. :whistling
Things look bad but everyone can see and hear that....... :cheesy:
Like you said we do expect a rebound and this "could" be within 48hrs ..... At least I'm hoping this little rally pre Euro sesh fails and we get break of 11635 (and 1270 spx). That would then put me on countdown for a bounce/rally of some sort.... maybe a decent one .... who knows Bill McLaren has mentioned we should be on the look out for a potential false break to the downside and slingshot recovery .....we'll see
My guide here is (A) slow stochastics are pretty low ....well under 20 .... the sort of levels which have normally brought in a low within days...
(B) Nikkei forms hammer overnight dipping early and finishing strongly - leading indic ?
(C) We are in that time zone for a low - I mentioned first or second week of March some days ago. We also have backing from ajaskey who sees a low around the middle of the month give or take.
(D) You would expect some kind of reaction at the lows of the year .... but everyone can see that so .............
Whatever I think ......... things are interestingly poised... Bearish swingers probably need a rally intraday which fails ......... but 4 me playing the percentages would say a low maybe within 48hrs ...? Lets see
Edit : Speaking of crashing and burning ............. I see Mr Spitzer has got issues .........
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Dude, u sound as if you had a bowl of negativity for breakfast!
I reckon this was one of the reasons firewalker went and created the private dow thread which has undoubtedly diluted this one....
Anyway just like to say thanks to the likes of Atilla, hook shot, catracho etc for making the effort to post interesting commentary/analyses.
In particular I find Atilla's mix of economic/trend analysis fascinating. I know he's spot on with the economics, if only I could draw those graphs!
keep it up guys and don't let the bulls get you dow
, lol
No Graphs just waffle........
Dow called up 100 pts which is interesting...... still needs to take out 11926 though ........... still a good way left imo... but what do I know ..... ?
Conundrum: Has Nikkei tolds us we have already landed ??
Questions... questions ....decisions... decisions
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Ftse - not that bad if it can regain 5700 it could be game on....
Things look bad but everyone can see and hear that....... :cheesy:
Like you said we do expect a rebound and this "could" be within 48hrs ..... At least I'm hoping this little rally pre Euro sesh fails and we get break of 11635 (and 1270 spx). That would then put me on countdown for a bounce/rally of some sort.... maybe a decent one .... who knows Bill McLaren has mentioned we should be on the look out for a potential false break to the downside and slingshot recovery .....we'll see
My guide here is (A) slow stochastics are pretty low ....well under 20 .... the sort of levels which have normally brought in a low within days...
(B) Nikkei forms hammer overnight dipping early and finishing strongly - leading indic ?
(C) We are in that time zone for a low - I mentioned first or second week of March some days ago. We also have backing from ajaskey who sees a low around the middle of the month give or take.
(D) You would expect some kind of reaction at the lows of the year .... but everyone can see that so .............
Whatever I think ......... things are interestingly poised... Bearish swingers probably need a rally intraday which fails ......... but 4 me playing the percentages would say a low maybe within 48hrs ...? Lets see
Edit : Speaking of crashing and burning ............. I see Mr Spitzer has got issues .........
Dow called up 100 pts which is interesting...... still needs to take out 11926 though ........... still a good way left imo... but what do I know ..... ?
Conundrum: Has Nikkei tolds us we have already landed ??
Questions... questions ....decisions... decisions
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ftse - not that bad if it can regain 5700 it could be game on....
catracho
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Two charts
not so sure we have seen the "bottom" - we ARE at "obvious" support levels (too obvious?) - looking at DAX -
ideally a sharp move lower (panicky) with divergence in certain indicators would be good for setting up the tradeable bounce..
Dow broken through March 03 trend line...maybe a bounce to reteest this..
not so sure we have seen the "bottom" - we ARE at "obvious" support levels (too obvious?) - looking at DAX -
ideally a sharp move lower (panicky) with divergence in certain indicators would be good for setting up the tradeable bounce..
Dow broken through March 03 trend line...maybe a bounce to reteest this..
Attachments
Thanx Goldmeister - for charts (& comments)
Have we seen the bottom ? I'm not sure we have so we agree there ........
If this frivolity in europe, asia and in us futs does not hint at a near term low - then they are certainly set up for disappointment :clap:
I commented earlier about dow called up 100 - looks like they went even higher while I was away shopping... and as mentioned earlier this morning bearish swingers could have their dream come true (again) if the price action does not follow through on this optimism still 100+ prem to monday's close - which is attractive.... but not a bargain.
I'm now back and ready to short the dow on a failed bounce - since long dow opp has gone for now. If that opportunity does not trigger "today" then there are millions of stocks which hit their 52w lows monday .....like stodgy GE, Goog, Starbucks... and most of Wall Street's finest .......I don't think GE is ready to fly higher but if the rally can sustain itself into the live sesh then maybe it will probably rise today .... perhaps.
Oh dear while I've been waffling the bears have woken up ..............
not so sure we have seen the "bottom" - we ARE at "obvious" support levels (too obvious?) - looking at DAX -
ideally a sharp move lower (panicky) with divergence in certain indicators would be good for setting up the tradeable bounce..
Dow broken through March 03 trend line...maybe a bounce to reteest this..
Have we seen the bottom ? I'm not sure we have so we agree there ........
If this frivolity in europe, asia and in us futs does not hint at a near term low - then they are certainly set up for disappointment :clap:
I commented earlier about dow called up 100 - looks like they went even higher while I was away shopping... and as mentioned earlier this morning bearish swingers could have their dream come true (again) if the price action does not follow through on this optimism still 100+ prem to monday's close - which is attractive.... but not a bargain.
I'm now back and ready to short the dow on a failed bounce - since long dow opp has gone for now. If that opportunity does not trigger "today" then there are millions of stocks which hit their 52w lows monday .....like stodgy GE, Goog, Starbucks... and most of Wall Street's finest .......I don't think GE is ready to fly higher but if the rally can sustain itself into the live sesh then maybe it will probably rise today .... perhaps.
Oh dear while I've been waffling the bears have woken up ..............
bottomleyp
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Dow
Glad to see, the regulars are posting again.
My take on the Dow, is the upside is limited because of the oil price, something has to give soon. I am scalping the odd 20-30 points on the Daily Nymex as it approaches
110 dollars. On Bloomeberg the other day, it appears that the traders where buying 110 dollar options, so maybe this could be the ceiling, who knows !
When oil price starts falling maybe Dow will start moving Northwards.
Glad to see, the regulars are posting again.
My take on the Dow, is the upside is limited because of the oil price, something has to give soon. I am scalping the odd 20-30 points on the Daily Nymex as it approaches
110 dollars. On Bloomeberg the other day, it appears that the traders where buying 110 dollar options, so maybe this could be the ceiling, who knows !
When oil price starts falling maybe Dow will start moving Northwards.
First off we got more rally which is great and we are even indicating an upbar i.e beyond 926 - :clap::clap: This is fantastic a great set up...... hopefully
Greenspan said recently that oil will go up "forever" .... obviously an odd thing to say but maybe he's letting the cat out of the bag.... buy the dips on oil and watch for the big $10 reversal to signify the specs are taking a breather - which should happen one day ....... Boone pickens is said to be strategically short for the last two weeks or so .... lets see......
Yeah and nice to have some chatter on the boards .... plus "some" analysis...
If this fed action is so important what the **** were they waiting for all this time ??
Second flat traders should love this and long traders got LUCKY........:clover:
catracho
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well we could be getting the ideal trade set up here once the weak shorts are flat..
interventions I don't think have ever worked...(pse correct if I am wrong)
is this just another Fed goose? Or will we get the MIB also joining in..could be ideal day for it..
interventions I don't think have ever worked...(pse correct if I am wrong)
is this just another Fed goose? Or will we get the MIB also joining in..could be ideal day for it..
Okay so for now the spike looks like it doesn't want to ease off........ I'm a patient man .........
but some of the longs I was looking at flew up too so twiddling thumbs...
The other thing to remember is that counter trends can last 1-4 days in these types of situation but lately they have only lasted ONE day........ and we have one today .... so life is getting interesting. I'd love it to fall over today and test 800 even 730 but life's just not like that is it ? However, if it wants to oblige I won't say NO.
As I say I'm a patient man.......
but some of the longs I was looking at flew up too so twiddling thumbs...
The other thing to remember is that counter trends can last 1-4 days in these types of situation but lately they have only lasted ONE day........ and we have one today .... so life is getting interesting. I'd love it to fall over today and test 800 even 730 but life's just not like that is it ?
However, if it wants to oblige I won't say NO.As I say I'm a patient man.......
Atilla
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I would say the Fed has finally realised rate cuts are not doing the trick so now they are injecting money into the economy.
The only - and the ONLY solution to American woes is to raise taxes to stifle demand and allow export led revival.
The republicans are leaving this mess for the Democrats to sort out as then they will turn around and say we told you so and you never had it so good as when you were led by Ragean and Bush economics of tax breaks to all the rich dudes.
We are so close on the fundamentals to a melt down. Some small bounce yes but 10,000 in sight imo.
Who thinks we will touch 14000 by the end of this year compared to 10000? 2000 either way?
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