Dow 2008

[Atilla]

Old Faithful is to buy the intraday dip 4 rally into the 7pm (before fed decision) on us indices...with europeans... closing well..at 4.30pm...

I'm looking to try the trick one more time........

I'm looking to sell any fed spike....in the late month 610/620..
800 2gud2btrue......:cheesy:

That's my sentiment too. I've noticed when ever Fed speaks one way or another Markets steady and rise - perhaps it's not bad as we are all thinking and Fed's in control. Yippy yaa yooohhh - here we go again...

Daily charts still looking bullish for the DOW imo. 12600 also looks like a turning point. Exciting times....

 

[catracho]

That's my sentiment too. I've noticed when ever Fed speaks one way or another Markets steady and rise - perhaps it's not bad as we are all thinking and Fed's in control. Yippy yaa yooohhh - here we go again...

Daily charts still looking bullish for the DOW imo. 12600 also looks like a turning point. Exciting times....

Not sure about BULLISH...definitely we have relieved the oversold conditions that were in place a week a go, maybe a pop later on FED cut..12800 should be max..but imho surprises will be to downside..and we NEED to have a test of the lows or new lows before meaningful rally..

DOW at 11300, DAX down below 6300....??
Having said that - any meaningful rise in DOW above 12800..may mean the worst is over (for now)...but FOR NOW..I'll stick with the bearish scenario:arrowd:

 

[dc2000]

Old Faithful is to buy the intraday dip 4 rally into the 7pm (before fed decision) on us indices...with europeans... closing well..at 4.30pm...

I'm looking to try the trick one more time........

I'm looking to sell any fed spike....in the late month 610/620..
800 2gud2btrue......:cheesy:

Im looking for things to play out pre descision then continue the move right now I have jumped off short FTSE and will now reload @911 and will take Dow at same time I will be looking for the FTSE to drop to 5790 before the close and the Dow to be around 375 giving a comfort cusion pre FOMC

 

[Hook Shot]

Im looking for things to play out pre descision then continue the move right now I have jumped off short FTSE and will now reload @911 and will take Dow at same time I will be looking for the FTSE to drop to 5790 before the close and the Dow to be around 375 giving a comfort cusion pre FOMC

well we got an intraday dip to buy......but if you're saying we get a second bite then bring it on...... yes please....

dow 375 pre fed..........luvly :cheesy:

 

[Atilla]

Not sure about BULLISH...definitely we have relieved the oversold conditions that were in place a week a go, maybe a pop later on FED cut..12800 should be max..but imho surprises will be to downside..and we NEED to have a test of the lows or new lows before meaningful rally..

DOW at 11300, DAX down below 6300....??
Having said that - any meaningful rise in DOW above 12800..may mean the worst is over (for now)...but FOR NOW..I'll stick with the bearish scenario:arrowd:

Over all in the bigger picture I'm bearish too. But there is a bigger H&S at play here and that neckline is around 800 on my charts. This is why I'm expecting a bounce up to those levels.

I can see it may stutter around 600 level too but once it touches 12800 or even breaches it as long as it doesn't go beyond 13000 I'll be looking to take big shorts around there.

I think it's rising again as it's currently around 12458 and I'm sure it will breach 500 by Fed speak time. For the time being still bullish.

 

[Hook Shot]

Getting my timeframes mixed up........

Old Faithful is to buy the intraday dip 4 rally into the 7pm (before fed decision) on us indices...with europeans... closing well..at 4.30pm...

I'm looking to try the trick one more time........

I'm looking to sell any fed spike....in the late month 610/620..
800 2gud2btrue......:cheesy:

I'm clear on my strat into 7pm.

800 would be a surprise TODAY......but not this week

As Atilla says dow remains s/t bullish.... that test of 12112 monday looks like launchpad... 4 sthg.... SignalWatch: Welcome!.... believe poss mega move in the works...

 

[dc2000]

well thats cable and FTSE in position a 1.9909 going into the fed would be on the money didnt get the 911 on the FTSE but three hits high two lo means only one thing unless we can get to 790 in the next ten mins go flat at close

 

[dc2000]

short on dow @575

hard stop @725 also long on cable looking for 2.0135

 

[Hook Shot]

europe confused me but.......

Old Faithful is to buy the intraday dip 4 rally into the 7pm (before fed decision) on us indices...with europeans... closing well..at 4.30pm...

I'm looking to try the trick one more time........

I'm looking to sell any fed spike....in the late month 610/620..
800 2gud2btrue......:cheesy:

Lets see........:cheesy:

 

[jayjay121]

is this just a spike we are seeing right now and is the dow coming down now the news is out?



jason

 

[Atilla]

Lets see........:cheesy:

The Fed is desperate. Another .5% is pure over reaction before the .75 has time to take effect. Hence, given the election year growth is primary concern and not inflation. This means more cuts on the way as problems will get worse.

I think this is going all the way to 800. I'd say 70/30 upside potential.

 

[leovirgo]

short on dow @575

hard stop @725 also long on cable looking for 2.0135

Aren't they supposed to go in the same direction? Or are you hedging ?
regards,..

 

[Atilla]

Aren't they supposed to go in the same direction? Or are you hedging ?
regards,..

I have gone short on USDJPY... I think the Yen carry trades are likely to come under increasing pressure. Given speech and rate cut. I can see 105 round the corner...

 

[Atilla]

HS, DC,

Good calls on the 12600 guys... Cooling off level...

 

[dc2000]

Aren't they supposed to go in the same direction? Or are you hedging ?
regards,..

The cable long was signaled just before the announcement, after it the dow signaled a short this was then a low risk hedge trade if the dow had continued I would have been stopped out -150 but the cable trade would have produced +195 and vice versa, as it panned out cable +74 at close and dow +133

 

[dc2000]

a quick n painless +100 on FTSE and 75 on the dow this morning now on sideline waiting for the long signal

 

[dc2000]

taken a small long@321will put a 40 point running stop on this,The long signal for me should come in @12235 that being the case the target would calc @12514 which is where I would re-short if we dont hit 235 first

 

[Atilla]

taken a small long@321will put a 40 point running stop on this,The long signal for me should come in @12235 that being the case the target would calc @12514 which is where I would re-short if we dont hit 235 first

I think we are likely to have a strong upward move when US markets open. Now that Fed has clearly indicated direction and are prepared to drop rates further to prevent a recession there is no reason to doubt direction the markets likely to move.

I'm waiting for 12400 to be cleared before going long. 12386 is my pivot point for the day and so would like that breached first. MA20 is flat. Would like that to turn up too.

I could create a longer lists of wants but not sure I need them all. :cheesy:

 

[firewalker99]

I think we are likely to have a strong upward move when US markets open. Now that Fed has clearly indicated direction and are prepared to drop rates further to prevent a recession there is no reason to doubt direction the markets likely to move.

Are you saying the cutting rates will help avoid recession? :whistling
I think yesterday was an excellent opportunity for the smart money to position itself for a ride down.

 

[Atilla]

Are you saying the cutting rates will help avoid recession? :whistling
I think yesterday was an excellent opportunity for the smart money to position itself for a ride down.

Yes. You throw enough money and liquidity at the markets you can avoid a recession and get inflation. But the only and the only solution for the US's Budget & BoP defecits are:

1. Raise taxes - curtail demand and consumption - tackle Budget defecit
2. Raise investment - boost exports - tackle BoP defecit

No two ways about it.

As for how long the solution will take to kick in and how much pain will be endured that's likely to be 5 to 20 years.

Payback for uncle Ragean and Bush'es policies.