Dow 2008

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dunno if its got strength being friday, who knows...

Anybody have 11350s as target?

Now that it looks like 600's have blown away if 500 fails to hold I'm going in short.

Bear in mind looks like we have had 61% retrace since yesterday.

I don't like the idea of going in at mid flight. Scalping maybe for order of the day.


I feel I made two mistakes. 1. Not let my profits run yesterday when 700 regions were reached. Missed out on 50 pips. 2. This morning took profits too early and lost out on another 100 pips. Such is life.

Instead of making lots of pips end up making some... I must learn to be more relaxed and more greedy! :confused:



Anyway, looking at 4hr, 1hr and 10 min charts at the mo. Currently flat. Looking for shorting opportunities to stick with the trend.
 
Hi

Oil os retracing back, so in my opinion, it should dip as well! Huge dip!

S K

Anybody have 11350s as target?

Now that it looks like 600's have blown away if 500 fails to hold I'm going in short.

Bear in mind looks like we have had 61% retrace since yesterday.

I don't like the idea of going in at mid flight. Scalping maybe for order of the day.


I feel I made two mistakes. 1. Not let my profits run yesterday when 700 regions were reached. Missed out on 50 pips. 2. This morning took profits too early and lost out on another 100 pips. Such is life.

Instead of making lots of pips end up making some... I must learn to be more relaxed and more greedy! :confused:



Anyway, looking at 4hr, 1hr and 10 min charts at the mo. Currently flat. Looking for shorting opportunities to stick with the trend.
 
I took today off, as well as yesterday...but I had to do a few scalps along the way.

Some of the bigs will be back from vacation next week, so we should get some good action after the Labor Day holiday weekend!

Good trading!
 
I think the rest of the year will be more downside.

Look at this daily chart with moving averages. The salmon colored moving average is a 200 simple moving average, and notice how YM tested the 200 sma back in may and FAILED. If YM rallies back up to the 200 and doesn't break, expect a big move down.

The yellow line is a 100 sma, and it barely could get above that back in may.
I zoomed in on this current time and all the SMA's are congesting, which means 50/50 of big up or big down. A big up move would go to the 200 and then down. A big down would be to 10,000 and then back up to the 100 or 200.

PS: YM looks like a descending triangle chart pattern.
We should almost always trade in the direction of our longer term moving averages.

So we could see 12000 first, hit that 200 sma and then down.

I attached the graph to the post, check er' out! I'll do a little run down on NQ as well, and maybe ES.
 

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  • YMdailychart.bmp
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Alright, onto the big picture of NQ (Nasdaq Futures).

NQ, much like YM, dumped into the new year, why? Because all these big institutions and players got rid of their tech stock holdings. Stocks were too risky at the start of 2008 with all this talk about credit crisis, the commodity run up, among all the other big negative news issues (I'm sticking to the technicals right now).

NQ is also in a descending triangle, somewhat. It made a higher high, higher low and then a lower high, which tells me NQ is still very weak, and could go as low as 1800 or 1700 if it fails to get above it's 200 SMA for a substantial amount of time.

2000 will come, but I think 1800 should be next, if 1800 is broken, 1700 would be next.
All of the SMA's are coming together and congesting. The 50 is not even close to breaking above the 200 MA...so this isn't looking bullish at all.

Here's the graph! check it out.
 

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  • NQdailychart.bmp
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We got the Chancellor of the Exchequer saying what a mess the Government is in financially !! He should know. Seems to be blaming Gordon for handing on a complete shambles. Covering his own backside I guess.
C'mon Gordon its time you resigned and let someone else repair the wreck. Spare the long suffering taxpayer more wasted money and time you clot :cry:
 
Hi

It would seem like Gordan is losing support as Miliband wants to replace him and Darling wants to not take the blame for him.

Of course, Darling is partly to blame as well. I think after this, Miliband and Darling might be viewed as turncoats by some Labour hardliners!

S K

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Be one with GOD, so that HE may appoint a deliver for your Soul! -HariHaraBramKalki ( S K )


We got the Chancellor of the Exchequer saying what a mess the Government is in financially !! He should know. Seems to be blaming Gordon for handing on a complete shambles. Covering his own backside I guess.
C'mon Gordon its time you resigned and let someone else repair the wreck. Spare the long suffering taxpayer more wasted money and time you clot :cry:
 
It would seem like Gordan is losing support as Miliband wants to replace him and Darling wants to not take the blame for him.

Of course, Darling is partly to blame as well. I think after this, Miliband and Darling might be viewed as turncoats by some Labour hardliners!

S K

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Be one with GOD, so that HE may appoint a deliver for your Soul! -HariHaraBramKalki ( S K )

I take this as support for Milliband from Darling. I think these attacks on Gordon will continue to grow until fact and reality dawn on Mr Brown.

The military, the police, the schools, the hospitals, my accountants and myself included do not like Mr Brown or his targets one bit.

He will cling on to power as long as possible in the hope inflation falls (as it surely must do given utility price increases in 30-40% levels) and economy picks up next year with hopefully lots of windfall taxes on utilities coupled with money given back to us in tax cuts to stimulate economy.

Anybody else not see this stupid cynical maneovours by Labour?
 
Another fundamental issue which affects the markets is Russia's attitude. Talk about bear with sore head !
Nice Mr Cheese-off, their Ambassidor to the EU assures us that it is only a small almost domestic spat. But quite what Russian citizens are doing in Georgia remains unclear. The last "domestic spat", the one in Chechnya had the Russians flattening the Chechen capital Grosny. No doubt protecting Russian citizens or something.
Doesn't look good for investing one's hard earned into such a country ?
 
Guys, US stocks (DOW, NASDAQ, S&P) are not effected by the cancellor or whomever you are talking about.

The Russia thing is another conflict...I'm not sure if this has much direct impact. I would stick to technical analysis rather than news/fundamentals. Forget investing in Russia, lol. In fact I wouldn't invest at all, just trade in and out of these markets for profit.

There's lots of global instability. Global recession is now here...It aint leaving anytime soon.
 
Interesting to see that the US mint has run out of gold coins, the demand is so big.

Have to disagree with your position a bit J-A. Fundamentals are'nt everything granted but surely matter ?
 
Hi J-Arthur - Everything contributes to the Greater Pic!

I have to agree with yourself up to a certain percentage! Indices in the UK has more of a direct impart in the Eurozone rather then in the US.

But it does have some impart as UK, besides Japan and China ( these 2 are into US bonds ) is one of the main participant in the investment sector ( banking- debt and loans/ property ).

That is why when the subprime in the US collapsed, the UK banks got hit hard as well, having to write off each to the tune of almost hundreds of mills or even into the billion region!

The main problem here is also happening in the US ( that is why you said it yourself Global ) which serves as a Universal Indicator that we are facing a Globe-trotting
recession. The contributors being collapse of property, banking and eventual consumer retail sector!

I am also into TA, as a fan of candlestick and Fib! But these are going for intra-day and the week/ month analysis of the market direction! With Fundamentals, which give me a general guidance into that direction, I would incorporate that with my Tech Analysis!

Talking about Gold coins, if you are interested, try to not buy Silver - prices are not going up anytime soon! If you are into Oil ... carry on! Oil will shoot sky high soon!!


S K

Interesting to see that the US mint has run out of gold coins, the demand is so big.

Have to disagree with your position a bit J-A. Fundamentals are'nt everything granted but surely matter ?
 
looking for 11805 to 11820 area before I would think of shorting, althought the rising wedge which we broke down from has just been tested from below for the third time by the high today of 11790, so this may be the high for today.
 
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