Dow 2008

[Atilla]

Hi everyone,

My last weeks stab at analysis with the EW took me no where. Best left to the professionals I think...

I do feel though we are still at the same place and are only treading water. The DOW looks like desparately trying to break out of 13200 and failing miserably imo.

I can also see some form of rising wedge and having read up on it this looks like being a very bearish sign.

My charts don't have volume but if we do have falling volume then a 35% fall has about 17 out of 19 chances of occurring according to Bulkowski.

Still very bearish and an article suggesting High St banks are set to apply for £90bn of Treasury Bills - double the £50bn touted by the BofE has scared me.

I think this is possible as I recall Bernanke stating a $100bn dollar hit from the sub-prime loan losses last year and more recently that has been revised upwards to a $1 trillion.

I also feel talk of stagflation and continued price rises are aggraviting the situ.

Basically, the charts and the news are joining ranks to signal a severe turn down imo. Not to mention the summer lack lustre period in the markets.

Hence, I'm looking for short positions. No change there...

If anybody can post some charts with daily volumes that would be appreciated.

Good trading everyone. :clover:

 

[firewalker99]

I do feel though we are still at the same place and are only treading water. The DOW looks like desparately trying to break out of 13200 and failing miserably imo.

Not exactly, you can't expect this to be back up above 13200 without a struggle of some sort. Comments like "Failing miserably" give the neutral observer a bias. It would more correct to say "we tried going above 13200" but failed. However, we haven't had that many attempts yet... More importantly I still see higher highs and higher lows since the March low.

Basically, the charts and the news are joining ranks to signal a severe turn down imo. Not to mention the summer lack lustre period in the markets.

Ehm, are you sure you have looked at the news from a neutral point of view? Have you checked the numbers released last week? A lot of 'unexpected' positive news... (housing starts to name one)

If anybody can post some charts with daily volumes that would be appreciated.

Here you are, daily volume and sideways volume. All you need
I've posted a chart from ProRealTime because these are free for everyone, once you register. You anyone who wishes to check this out can. There's also BigCharts. Oh and before you call me 'bullish', I'm neither, I'm just enumerating what I see...

 

[dans_ya_man]

Wow that was a sharp rise, looks like we going to hit the "May" high at 13150, will be interesting to see what happens at this level. Ill be looking for a short around about here

 

[chilltrader]

Not exactly, you can't expect this to be back up above 13200 without a struggle of some sort. Comments like "Failing miserably" give the neutral observer a bias. It would more correct to say "we tried going above 13200" but failed. However, we haven't had that many attempts yet... More importantly I still see higher highs and higher lows since the March low.



Ehm, are you sure you have looked at the news from a neutral point of view? Have you checked the numbers released last week? A lot of 'unexpected' positive news... (housing starts to name one)



Here you are, daily volume and sideways volume. All you need
I've posted a chart from ProRealTime because these are free for everyone, once you register. You anyone who wishes to check this out can. There's also BigCharts. Oh and before you call me 'bullish', I'm neither, I'm just enumerating what I see...

Hi FW,

Good to see you still around

btw.. what is "sideways volume"? what does it mean/signify?

Thank You

 

[breadman]

short the dow 13130

 

[dans_ya_man]

Bang on entry breadman, I went short at 13110, do you have a target price?

 

[breadman]

a couple of hundred points 12900 but not today. sell rallies for the next few days, as long as we do not make a new high later today.

 

[dans_ya_man]

I have just closed, used a trailing S/L which got triggered at 13040. +70 points

 

[firewalker99]

Hi FW,

Good to see you still around

btw.. what is "sideways volume"? what does it mean/signify?

Thank You

It's the volume displayed on the left hand side of the chart, aka volume by price.
It shows areas where price has been traded more or less than others.

 

[breadman]

13000 close

 

[Atilla]

Not exactly, you can't expect this to be back up above 13200 without a struggle of some sort. Comments like "Failing miserably" give the neutral observer a bias. It would more correct to say "we tried going above 13200" but failed. However, we haven't had that many attempts yet... More importantly I still see higher highs and higher lows since the March low.

You got me Firewalker, I'm a hibernating bear and I'm itching to come out to play...


Ehm, are you sure you have looked at the news from a neutral point of view? Have you checked the numbers released last week? A lot of 'unexpected' positive news... (housing starts to name one)

Forgive me but I think you are missing the news... US Housing Starts Not to mention string of many other news. If you claim this piece of news is positive I beg to differ.

Here you are, daily volume and sideways volume. All you need
I've posted a chart from ProRealTime because these are free for everyone, once you register. You anyone who wishes to check this out can. There's also BigCharts. Oh and before you call me 'bullish', I'm neither, I'm just enumerating what I see...

Thank you for the volume charts. I look at ProRealTime too but the volume for some reason comes out on the side and I can't make heads or tails out of it on mine. I'll have to have a play with the interface I think.

I wasn't going to call you bullish as I know you are always very objective in your outlook. Are you a vulcan by any chance? :cheesy:

My strategy is to short the rises. When the big drop does come I hope to let the win ride perhaps longer over the complete summer period until 2nd week of August. I know it's not very technical but based on my age and passed experience its merely odds and probability.

 

[breadman]

buy the dow 12882

 

[Spcboe]

Originally posted by breadman
short the dow 13130

a couple of hundred points 12900 but not today. sell rallies for the next few days, as long as we do not make a new high later today.

Not sure what you saw, but that was a very nice reversal trade. kudos

 

[SuddenDeath]

Excellent trade Breadman,

short the dow 13130

your reading of market is truly awesome.

SD

 

[breadman]

i got lucky, this market needs to bounce later today close above 12900 or else the rising channel/wedge we have been in looks like breaking to the down side. the target will then be a retest of 12700 at least.
post 1979 will give you an idea of why i took the trade.

 

[SuddenDeath]

Fibonacci time targets,

firewalker99,
the reason for the dates are that it is 45 trading days from the 10th of March low on the 9th of May. 45, 90 and 180 day cycles do have a better than average chance of picking tops and bottoms. the 9th is a Friday so the 8th of May a day before and the 12 the next trading day after are possible.
their are 365 days in the year 86 days is 23.6%, 139 days is 38.2%, 182 days is 50% and 225 days is 61.8%. the 18th of May is 86 days, 23.6% from the 22nd of January low which is the low for this move down. I should have said 15/16 and 19/ 20 as these are the market open days.
I think I favour 15/16 19/20 for the top.

Hi Breadman, i hope you dont mind me posting the quote you referred to. is the 45 days related to hedge fund notice period for each quarter.

thanks

SD

 

[breadman]

long again 12850 2 trades now.

 

[breadman]

suddendeath,
i don't know anything about hedge funds and what they do. i have just read lots of articles how time and price relates to one another in the markets. this made me look at charts and count the number of days between highs and lows and then look at the gann and fibonacci time frames.

 

[breadman]

close 1 trade 12854

 

[dans_ya_man]

looking for a long at the 12780 area, showing strong support on the hourlys