Dow 2008

[breadman]

I see. But if you count 90 days from the January lows we should've topped already...

I am not saying every 45, 90 or 180 days their is a top or bottom. I just take the last important top or bottom and count 45, 90 and 180 days monday to friday. I then look for another top or bottom. so you have the last low on the 10th of March, 45 days is the 9th of May,90 days is 11th of July and 180 days is the 14th of November.
22nd of January lows 45 days is the 24th of March,90 days is 22nd of May and 180 days is the 25 of September. As you will see on the 24th of March 45 days after the 22nd of January low we had a high the market then fell for 4 days.
we also had a top on the 1st of February 45 days later the 8th of April the market fell for 5 days, the top was one day before on the 7th.
we also had a top on the 27th of February 45 days later is the 30th of April this Wednesday, are we going to have short term top.

 

[Phil Mibbutz]

I have a horrible feeling we're going to hit 13000 today.

 

[black bear]

bigger they are the harder they fall

 

[firewalker99]

... today's high is "the top"
don't slap me if we break 13000 next week... but to be honest I'd be VERY surprised

So far today we came very close to last week's high, but we're still hovering below it
the volume is less though, can't help feeling this is all a build-up to Wednesday

Also worth nothing is that the Nasdaq is still 10 points off that high.
It's particularly lackluster today and is misses volume imo.

Anyway, still one hour to go.

 

[black bear]

ok ok I will get the slippers ready FW

not closing out just yet but just in case.............finger on the button

 

[houdani]

hourly trend line broken at the cash close tonight,i personally am short es from here,a lot of people are looking towards wednesday for the next big move so no surprise to see a nasty gap overnight tonight/tomorrow to leave the waiters standing on the platform or the trend followers burning in the abyss that holy grail has forseen...

 

[phlash]

I'm short at 13050 (Year End), with stops above 13200.

I'm looking for the Dow to stay below the 13000 mark, if it doesn't I'm out at 13050 spot.

 

[Atilla]

Funny how you'd say an upmove is the "worst scenario" out there



My sentiment is the same, although I must admit to what I see on the chart, and that is at the moment rather bullish. :-0 Speaking of MA's, it's close on touching the 200-day MA...

HS, the downtrend is still in play according to my charts. I reckon the area between 12800-13200 is the main battle lines for 13000s. I would like to see a decisive break to either side to confirm move in direction.

FW, by the expression worst scenario I mean that imo we are still in a down trend and reversal above 13200 will change my sentiment about our direction. It underlines my bearish view and bias - Perhaps a Freudian slip :cheesy:

I concur with your chart FW about the LrHs but I'm not convinced about the change in market sentiment. I feel we are reaching exhaustion. This feeling (emotions) is really based on fundamentals dare I say.

We need some new creative destruction to spur on economic growth and development. But with global warming and high commodity prices stifling production even this possibility seems like a recipee for disaster.

I still hold the view Fed and global policy makers have two solutions:

1. Reduce interest rates
2. Raise taxes

to manage way out. Anything else policy makers do is an absolute waste of time and money.

I also feel earnings will come in much lower come reporting season towards 3rd & 4th quarter of this year so imo things can only get much worse. :whistling

 

[fibonelli]

I'm keeping a beady eye on the Dow.

Daily - So many wedges!!
Quarterly log chart - Showing the trendline from the 1982 and 2003 low just overhead at circa 12950-12970 as of today

 

[firewalker99]

Can someone explain to me why the Dow has been moving sideways for the past few months. It seems a long time. I am afraid I am only a beginner in trading the Dow.

Price has dropped sharply since the end of last year. After a sharp drop, a consolidation is usually required. Price moves between periods of balancing and trending.

As for sideways, the intraday moves are quite big, so there's plenty of room to profit from.

 

[black bear]

Can someone explain to me why the Dow has been moving sideways for the past few months. It seems a long time. I am afraid I am only a beginner in trading the Dow.

Because its a pain in the assssssssssssssssssssssssss !

Work out what it will do then you do the opposite and you will not go far wrong imho

Joke

 

[firewalker99]

So do we move up or down from here. I just carn't decide.

You don't need to decide what is going to happen, you only need to decide what you will do in case something happens. You need to have several scenarios. For example (hypothetically speaking): I want to buy if price goes above 13100, I want to sell if price drops below 12800.

 

[black bear]

So do we move up or down from here. I just carn't decide.

You Can"t ask that

can you :?:

 

[black bear]

You don't need to decide what is going to happen, you only need to decide what you will do in case something happens. You need to have several scenarios. For example (hypothetically speaking): I want to buy if price goes above 13100, I want to sell if price drops below 12800.

So you go for a hypothetical sleep in the middle Fw :?:

sorry, not forgot the slippers...................

not closed out just yet

 

[firewalker99]

So you go for a hypothetical sleep in the middle Fw :?:
sorry, not forgot the slippers...................

Well, those numbers were completely hypothetical because I don't swing trade.
But even during intraday trading, I do a lot of "sleeping"

 

[black bear]

don"t we all, going to have to make more use of the alarm functions

 

[gilligullu]

New indicator. Whenever Brush goes on TV, SHORT!!!!

 

[Hook Shot]

Who knows but.......

So do we move up or down from here. I just carn't decide.

I'm looking to buy this dip ahead of Fed day as always..as we often rally into the decision. I'd like more downside today then a late rally. But what I really want is a trend down day cheesy and then buy in after the close....... for the bounce into fed decision....thereafter haven't a clue........

 

[houdani]

closed out last nights short for 8 s+p pts.dont like the bounce here and the unwillingness to fall further,might be wrong but a winners not a winner until its in the bank.

 

[firewalker99]

So far today we came very close to last week's high, but we're still hovering below it
the volume is less though, can't help feeling this is all a build-up to Wednesday

Also worth nothing is that the Nasdaq is still 10 points off that high.
It's particularly lackluster today and is misses volume imo.

Yesterday we had a lackluster Nasdaq, today it was the strongest out there and touched the 4-month highs. However, S&P is significantly below resistance at 1405 (see my previous posts) and the DOW is hovering above 12800. A close in the 127xx or lower tomorrow would be the confirmation I'm looking for.

Worth noting is that last two days have been very small range. Quite typical of pre-fed days, but not a coincidence that it occurs at this point in time at this price level.