Dow 2007

anybody still in a position?

I wish I held on to my long from 13315... looks like another "one day - one direction" day :|

Hi, i'm currently flat after a long intraday trade today. Just eyeing up the possibility of a breakout long from the top. As long as the rising trendline support holds in the meantime.

I would prefer a lower long entry point:rolleyes:

Best case probably after todays action would be a break north with a target of approx 13,332.....cash index
 
Hi everyone, not looked at comp till now.

Yes lurker I covered my short last week, I got a bloody nose to say the least being short of YM, ES and Z (Ftse).

It isn't enough to kill me but was in too heavy and probably getting a little set in my short views.

Saying that I have taken a one contract short today with a stop above the highs.

the risk reward seems alright and at the time a pull back looked likely.

I think I'm going to cover at a small loss now as the signals that got me short are no longer looking that way. It did go my way a little but I didn't cover for a profit when I could have done.

Everything is pointing to long trade, there isn't a time scale you can look at on the dow that points to a short now we're at all time highs.

My advice for what it is worth would be to take a daily and hourly view and only look to trade in that direction.

What it does is removes one decision for you, instead of deciding on being long, short or out you might decide that if it is above daily 9ema you are only looking for longs or something.

It means less trades but not nessercarily less profit!

It takes discipline especially if you've been trading a lot but might get your emotions back on an even keel.

Stephen
 
Good advice Stephen...just to make the point from a psycological view....most traders are not equipped to trade both ways in any instrument...so to trade one direction only is in reality the very best thing they could do.

I went long from 13,307/11 cmc S B......this in not an ideal entry but i will monitor closely for any break below 07....target still around 32...or whatever it gives

cv
 
Just learnt a nasty lesson, a nice tea, a few glasses of red and took a trade (bad decision), the trade should have been entered at 13314 not 13306, alcohol and trading don't mix. I've just broke every rule in my trading plan, so I will stay around a little while and see how it goes, (Grrrrrrrr)
 
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Hi, i'm currently flat after a long intraday trade today. Just eyeing up the possibility of a breakout long from the top. As long as the rising trendline support holds in the meantime.

I would prefer a lower long entry point:rolleyes:

Best case probably after todays action would be a break north with a target of approx 13,332.....cash index

I'm not sure about the potential of a break north... small caps & tech's aren't exactly hanging on today :|

well then another day with a higher close, I've kept lost of how many sessions, but I do know that I've had 12 days in-a-row now on DOW without a single losing long trade :-0 and 3 losing ones and all were shorts...

definitely no reason to exit longs yet... my reason to exit them was that NQ and ER2 were looking to go down (and they did)... guess that shows how resilient DOW can be! hmm
 

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Expensive lessons learned (I hope)

Hi everyone, not looked at comp till now.

Yes lurker I covered my short last week, I got a bloody nose to say the least being short of YM, ES and Z (Ftse).

Looks like we were just wrong. I got taken for 60 pips today - 2 trades, stopped out both times.

It isn't enough to kill me but was in too heavy and probably getting a little set in my short views.

My money management totally sucked and I had a larger stake on the second trade (I know I should trade less when losing).

Saying that I have taken a one contract short today with a stop above the highs.

the risk reward seems alright and at the time a pull back looked likely.

I think I'm going to cover at a small loss now as the signals that got me short are no longer looking that way. It did go my way a little but I didn't cover for a profit when I could have done.

My second losing trade today pulled back and gave me the opportunity to get out for 15 tics including spread - guess what opportunity I didn't take!

Everything is pointing to long trade, there isn't a time scale you can look at on the dow that points to a short now we're at all time highs.

After today, and the advice of some learned members here, I am convinced that there is no reason to be short during the blow off phase of a roaring bull market.

My advice for what it is worth would be to take a daily and hourly view and only look to trade in that direction.

What it does is removes one decision for you, instead of deciding on being long, short or out you might decide that if it is above daily 9ema you are only looking for longs or something.

I was talking to a friend on the golf course about trading, and I remember very distinctly talking about entries more than exits, and how I planned to take note of the primary trend and look for pullbacks into it. I had been reading a few books by Dr Elder Alexander, along with The Disciplined Trader. I had realised the weakness in some of my strategy which got me burned last week. This is my single biggest daily loss and represents around 30% of total equity balance. Yes, you did read that right, and there isn't a decimal point missing.

I've blown a hole in my trading record with regard to risk and drawdowns. I now have less capital with which to recoup losses, and my psychology is a little wrecked.

I'm going to take a few days off, as I am quite busy with other fairly important and quite stressful stuff. When I come back, it will be with stricter rules and a temporary £1/point stake size limit. Hopefully I can improve the matter later in the week, although I have resigned myself to the fact that I will have 2 consecutive losing weeks. At least I have enough to trade another day.

Thanks to CounterViolent, BrutusDog, Firewalker, Dinos, and of course smccreedy for all your kind words and guidance. Other people have weighed in, so my apologies if you are not mentioned by name.

I have made some mistakes, but I think I understand the problem, and hopefully I will be able to get back on the horse soon.

Finally, I'm new to the Dow. Maybe I should go back to the FTSE in the mornings, and the Dow in the afternoons...

Back in a few days - happy trading!
 
Morning everyone,

I have had a jolly good weekend far away from the maddening crowd. Feel refreshed and brand new to tackle the slings and arrows of outrages trading... Ducking and diving I am ready to give the DOW couple of body blows before coming up with a swoosh upper cut to knock the big bad beast down.

I'm still short from Friday and good to see it has come down from the highs.

Dare I say I'm expecting a drop to 13000? No better not.

Good luck everyone.
 
Interesting...according to this article the dow has already crashed !!!! So maybe the only was is up. The link to the ful article is below but check these 3 graphs out;

IN DOLLARS : Here's the Dow Jones Industrial Average the way you're used to seeing it. It appears to have gone up because it is measured in dollars. However, it's up in price only… not value! And now I'll prove it with the following charts.

GOLD : In this chart I measure the Dow with money, not currency. It took almost 45 ounces of gold to buy 1 share of the Dow in 1999. Today it takes less than 19. Another way of saying it, if you sold 1 share of the Dow in 1999 you would have been able to buy 45 ounces of gold. Today if you sold 1 share of the Dow, the proceeds would only buy you 19 ounces of real money. So measured in real money, the Dow has crashed 58%.

WHAT CAN ACTUALLY BUY WITH IT : I like this chart, because it shows you just how much real stuff (on the average) the Dow will buy you. It's the Dow divided by the Commodities Index. Commodities are the stuff you buy, or the stuff that goes into the stuff you buy. What this chart is saying is that you could buy twice as much stuff if you cashed out of the Dow in 1999 as the same number of shares will buy you today. This chart is also saying; "you can take your Dow and stuff it!"


http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2007/0416.html
 

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Interesting your article above 29i. Perhaps this partially accounts for the Dow rising and rising. Maybe the gold pendulum will swing back a bit too. Or maybe gold was valued wrongly in 90s.
Oscar got it wrong yesterday AND is still predicting down.
 
29Investments have you seen this ?
Saying the same thing about the Dow being massively undervalued at the moment.
 
Warning: Bulls Ahead?

Morning everyone,

I have had a jolly good weekend far away from the maddening crowd. Feel refreshed and brand new to tackle the slings and arrows of outrages trading... Ducking and diving I am ready to give the DOW couple of body blows before coming up with a swoosh upper cut to knock the big bad beast down.

I'm still short from Friday and good to see it has come down from the highs.

Dare I say I'm expecting a drop to 13000? No better not.

Good luck everyone.

Atilla - I got seriously burned selling the Dow short yesterday. Just be careful. I know you sold Friday's high, but the intra-day peaks yesterday came pretty close to it. I would suggest that if your entry is breached you exit. The bull run may not be over yet...
 
Morning everyone,

I have had a jolly good weekend far away from the maddening crowd. Feel refreshed and brand new to tackle the slings and arrows of outrages trading... Ducking and diving I am ready to give the DOW couple of body blows before coming up with a swoosh upper cut to knock the big bad beast down.

I'm still short from Friday and good to see it has come down from the highs.

Dare I say I'm expecting a drop to 13000? No better not.

Good luck everyone.

Well, I don't expect 13,000 but I'd say 13150-13,160 was do-able over the next day or two.

Even though as I type, the Dow futs look reluctant in their fall, it's heartening that the DAX (a leading indicator IMHO) has simply fallen steadily without much in the way of spike ups.

I think with such heat still in the market (& everyone being told to buy the dips), it'll be best to bail at your perceived lowest intra day price over the next two days....& pre-FED announcement! Cos even though I'm an uber-bear, this market wants to blow (northwards)
 
hi hobby - fellow uber bear here. I would advise all traders to keep an eye on risk / reward, stake sizing, and to expect the unexpected. This could still go north for no fundamental reason. I got greedy and impatient, I made bad trades, and I lost a lot. There is a lesson in that.

Traded once today - +5 points on the FTSE (June future)
 
The results from Cisco systems could have a major effect on today's market, but they aren't out till late on. Don't rule out yet another rise imho just yet.
 
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