Dow 2007

Pat

Don't normally short term position Dow, but count me in, I'll join in
 
With the collapsing value of the dollar, shouldn't the Dow be at around 15000 now? Ladies and Gentlemen - the bull is back!
 
So glad you guys think an EOD Dow might be of use and interesting. Could be a sort of general direction pointer for intraday too ( going with the trend ? ).
Too late for today - so kick-off tomorow
 
Don't ask, but that little run cost me 15 pips! I've missed the 2 good long entries so far, and I think I am going to call it a day.
 
Hi

Hi everbody... hope you are all doing well.

I'm just having a look at what happened while I was away.
First impression is that volatility seems to have returned to normal levels (some "dull" ranging days actually?)

Looks like we are making a secondary top...

I probably won't be posting as frequently as before, but I'll try to stick my nose in from time to time and post a chart or a comment.

For old times sake -> @ Lurker: I don't see anything special about that run-up apart that it's an outbreak of resistance, which for that reason should provide a nice release of energy which indeed it did. Might be interesting to note the divergence in the NQ: it's not breaking it's overhead resistance from last week. At least not yet.
 
firewalker99 said:
Hi everbody... hope you are all doing well.

I'm just having a look at what happened while I was away.
First impression is that volatility seems to have returned to normal levels (some "dull" ranging days actually?)

Looks like we are making a secondary top...

I probably won't be posting as frequently as before, but I'll try to stick my nose in from time to time and post a chart or a comment.

For old times sake -> @ Lurker: I don't see anything special about that run-up apart that it's an outbreak of resistance, which for that reason should provide a nice release of energy which indeed it did. Might be interesting to note the divergence in the NQ: it's not breaking it's overhead resistance from last week. At least not yet.
Click to expand...

I was pretty taken aback by the speed of the move, that is all. Nice to see you back on here. I've been doing okay the last few weeks, but stopping after very quickly losing 15 pips today. How are things?
 
Hi Guys

Do you think the oil money is now entering the US Stockmarket.
Any one hazard a guess, when we are going to turn South.
Keep getting E-Mails from John Piper, there is a 1000 point correction.
Totally confused, have you bears all turne Bulls ?
Late sympathy for Steve, glqd your child is recovering !
 
Bottomley

Just keep checking those charts, a turn will come at some stage, how big and far is anybodys' guess, take each day as it comes and be prepared to enter the trade as and when, thats all I'll be doing
 
We're up 160 points since I called the return of the bulls earlier today. Pity I hadn't just gone long there. I kept thinking, as I always do on trend days, "it has moved too far to fast - I'm not going to trade against it, but I am too late to get on boards, so I'll just stay flat".

The situation with US equities is quite scary right now. I'm glad to be flat, and start the week with a 15 pip loss (not so good). However, I'm really not sure how to judge this market. If fundamental news comes in weak, the markets rally on the higher probability of a rate cut. If fundamentals come in strong, the markets rally on the good news. I don't want to get caught up in thinking that this is a one way bet, but with the Fed likely to cut rates even further, and the dollar devaluing at such a rapid rate, the Dow can only go up.

Once again (recalling my experience of the February crash), I'm rather disappointed in not having the foresight to make a low stake long term buy on gold and YM a few weeks back. Buying EUR/USD would have been quite sensible as well.

I feel my fun is being spoiled this week. My favourite trade of the month, the nonfarm payrolls, is coming up this week, and for the first time in a few months I'm unsure of the reaction. I've done quite well taking a position into this number, or trading off S/R as established by the H/L of the 15m bar after the number for the last 3/4 months. I sold into the number last time (but only took 50 pips out of 200 odd after not having the guts to hold) when I saw an estimate of +118K (thinking that was rediculous). The number came out at -4K, and I covered too soon.

This month, I'm seeing predictions around the +100K mark, which seems more reasonable, but I'm pencilling in a lower number. Given that revisions also make up an important part of this release, I'm a little unsteady this time. If the nonfarm employment change is 20 to 40K less than expected, are the markets going to have a small correction down, or would this be an excuse to rally 1% in 10 minutes as it makes a rate cut even more likely?

Sometimes I worry about being bearish. Perhaps the bottom is in, and we will see 15K going into end of year. The Fed and the markers are acting with such infuriating audacity, but there is no sense losing pips trying to fight it. We have had our minor (10%) correction in the markets-perhaps it is time to start buying again...to hell with the fundamentals - nobody else seems to care about them.
 
Lurker; you seem to be far too concerned with what the markets are doing - ignore all that bull**** and simply trade what you see and not what you keep thinking..
 
End of the Correction?

The IGIndex "Cash" charts tell me we are 10 handles away from the all time high of the S&P. We are also 50 over the all time high of the Dow.

It looks like it is long only once again. I'd really like to see 13500 tested again, but something tells me the worst is over. Most of the major financial reporting has been done since the credit crunch, and we are probably set for $1000/oz gold and 2% interest rates in the good old USA sometime soon. I'm even considering going long into the employment number - it could come out with -200K jobs and the market would price in another 0.5% cut and go to the moon.

Anyone care to guess tomorrows headlines?

RECORD CLOSE ON WALL STREET

TRADERS CELEBRATE AS BULL RUN BACK ON

FED INTERVENTION CALMS MARKETS

STOCKS ARE SAFE AGAIN

BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY

DOW TO GO TO MOON

SPX TO REACH NEW HIGHS

OSAMA BIN LADEN FOUND

WORLD PEACE DECLARED
 
Long time since posting Steve, best wishes to your daughter.

I am currently in the doldrums with my trading as of today, at 8am this morning I was nicely short in the FTSE and then wham the DOW goes flying up.

Have lost 20pts and 15 pts on a DOW short and FTSE short and am now sitting short again at 14995... just as it appears to be blasting off again. Moral of the story is some days you have to walk as whatever you do it turns to dust.

Think I might go and find a toaster to join me in a bath...
 
ian said:
Lurker; you seem to be far too concerned with what the markets are doing - ignore all that bull**** and simply trade what you see and not what you keep thinking..
Click to expand...

Wise advice. I'll try to do that. So far, I see a break above 14195 to challenge a new high before the close. I'm looking to buy a rejection of 170. Perhaps it will never get that low, and I'll be left trying to follow a breakout I won't have the guts to follow.
 
daytradingUK said:
Long time since posting Steve, best wishes to your daughter.

I am currently in the doldrums with my trading as of today, at 8am this morning I was nicely short in the FTSE and then wham the DOW goes flying up.

Have lost 20pts and 15 pts on a DOW short and FTSE short and am now sitting short again at 14995... just as it appears to be blasting off again. Moral of the story is some days you have to walk as whatever you do it turns to dust.

Think I might go and find a toaster to join me in a bath...
Click to expand...

Thanx m8 and to all other members for their messages/PM's of support,

The market:
NDX is two points off a W projection at 2120....equilevant on SPX is 1553...if these numbers are taken out next stop could be 1:1 projection off of August lows giving 2170 for NDX and 1565 for SPX...which could take Dow to 14250....personally I'm looking to sell this on test of 1553
 
I don't believe this. I got the turning point to within a few pips, and chickened to cover at 194.

Does anyone have any thoughts on Friday's employment number?
 
lurkerlurker said:
The IGIndex "Cash" charts tell me we are 10 handles away from the all time high of the S&P. We are also 50 over the all time high of the Dow.

It looks like it is long only once again. I'd really like to see 13500 tested again, but something tells me the worst is over. Most of the major financial reporting has been done since the credit crunch, and we are probably set for $1000/oz gold and 2% interest rates in the good old USA sometime soon. I'm even considering going long into the employment number - it could come out with -200K jobs and the market would price in another 0.5% cut and go to the moon.

Anyone care to guess tomorrows headlines?

RECORD CLOSE ON WALL STREET

TRADERS CELEBRATE AS BULL RUN BACK ON

FED INTERVENTION CALMS MARKETS

STOCKS ARE SAFE AGAIN

BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY

DOW TO GO TO MOON

SPX TO REACH NEW HIGHS

OSAMA BIN LADEN FOUND

WORLD PEACE DECLARED
Click to expand...


That's great post LL. Made me laugh.

I think I'm over my shock now... How can anybody not be bullish in this market? No idea. I've been looking at headlines and nearest I can come to it Citigroups wright offs and next quarter they expect things will be back to normal. I'm sure everybody expects likewise. :rolleyes:

I've taken my losses and will sit out and watch the next few days

My MAs are in buy territory with some retrace. Will I go long. No. I don't have the curiousity to get on the roller coaster at this point in time.

Will wait for my MAs to turn and crossover before I move short again. :)
 
Here's mine:

POLITBURO FED SETS UP NEW EQUITY BUBBLE FOR THEIR MATES

HELI BEN SAYS "GIVE ME CONTROL OF THE PRINTING PRESS AND SEE WHAT I CAN DO"

FED BANISHES THE BEARS TO THE CAVE AND GIVES THE KEY TO THE "BUY THE DIPPERS"

BU$H SIGNS EXECUTIVE ORDER 666-6 - ALL PRIVATE INVESTORS ARE TO BUY THE DIPS. RESISTANCE IS FUTILE............

BU$H SIGNS EXECUTIVE ORDER 666-7 - BAD NEWS, MARKET GOES UP 1%; VERY BAD NEWS, MARKET GOES UP 3%; EXTREMELY BAD NEWS, MARKET GOES UP 5%; BANK RUNS, MARKET GOES UP 15%; DOLLAR INDEX FALLS 10% IN ONE DAY, MARKET GOES UP 30%

Phew!
 
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