Dow 2007

[Kevin21]

Kevin, I'm looking to do direct access myself (2 lots maximum though!) - what other brokers would you recommend. 10 lots on the ES is very impressive indeed - your trading has gone from strength to strength (you've been on these boards less than me, and as laptop1 says you have increased your contract size 250x). Do you still trade the YM, or have you switched over to the ES entirely? Could I ask if your trading strategy involves market internals in any way - ie NYSE A/D issues, TICK, etc (for the ES).

Are you also using Dinos systems for position trading the CAC and Dax? How are those working out for your? Have you applied the system as stated, or made some adjustments yourself? Do you use volume, open interest, and the order book when trading?

How have your found it to adjust to making such significant profits? Some of my best weeks I've taken around £1k, and that takes a little bit of getting used to. How have you adapted to taking a few grand per trade, making such large pip gains trading such a size?

i'm not using dino's system and i'm not trading european markets anymore and i don't use indictors.

As for adapting to profits. I got myself to a point where i was making a fair whack a day anyway, but the difference is that i'm just trading two Markets now, ES and YM, instead of trading nearly eight a day. So i'm buying more lots instead of trading 2-3 contracts on lots of markets.

ES is harder to get filled on because of the way the contracts trade. Today was a good day because it was a strong trend day and i got in early and had runners left in play. However i'm only looking for 70pts a week out of YM and the equivalent out of ES too a week - obviously i trade more contracts on YM than ES because the difference in value, anything more is a bounus in my eyes. I just think in pts now and not in $. If i want to make more money, i'll just jack the size of lots up, according to correct risk management.

If you're making 1k a week then you're doing something thats working for you, so don't worry about what i'm doing, plus every week i build on what i'm doing because i've got a mentor.

When you actually want to open an DMA account then PM me and i'll put you in touch with someone. Depending how much you're making, they'll be happy to negotiate prices with you. My margins are $300 per contract. As you have probably noticed i don't spend time on these boards anymore, so i may take me a while to get back to you.

Kev

 

[Atilla]

Hi Atilla,

I agree with that. In fact, this thread is in great danger of 'failing' because of a certain 'type' of verbal diaohrea! And that would be a very great shame.

Yes CV, you are thinking what I am thinking, no doubt?

P.S. Robert, keep up the good work, and speak soon.

cheers - Tricks

Once again on a personal level it's been a bad day for me. Make up for the good ones in last few weeks. However, I'm still holding my double normal size position. So far 13400 looks like being considered. I honestly can't see this market going up. But I know Jack diddly dot. Listening to the news I hear Northern Rock asking for emergency funding. I'm thinking gosh that's gotta be serious.

I'm reading articles about this crises likely to be much deeper and longer than the Russian and Asian crises of late.

I agree.

 

[tricks]

Can we have some charts and technical speak to add substance to these threads.

I like to see both on a personal level.

It Seems the PPT are trying their best again, if that's tech speak! US banks have just borrowed $7.2 billion from the Fed. Not a lot really is it?

cheers -Tricks

P.S. 1, 2, 3, and 4 hour charts on DOW (Stochs) look to be heading south! Is that technical enough for you AT?

 

[Atilla]

It Seems the PPT are trying their best again, if that's tech speak! US banks have just borrowed $7.2 billion from the Fed. Not a lot really is it?

cheers -Tricks

P.S. 1, 2, 3, and 4 hour charts on DOW (Stochs) look to be heading south! Is that technical enough for you AT?

Do you think it's sufficient to keep this thread vibrant and kicking?

How about throwing some colourful charts at my screen...

My position is looking bright again.

How much is Northern Rock borrowing I wonder?

 

[tricks]

Do you think it's sufficient to keep this thread vibrant and kicking?

How about throwing some colourful charts at my screen...

My position is looking bright again.

How much is Northern Rock borrowing I wonder?

This thread is 'active' and will continue.

Charts are in the eye of the beholder.

The future is looking 'orange'.

cheers M8 - Tricks

P.S. I'm beginning to sound like Socs!!!! Help!!!

 

[tricks]

Hi Atilla,

I agree with that. In fact, this thread is in great danger of 'failing' because of a certain 'type' of verbal diaohrea! And that would be a very great shame.

Yes CV, you are thinking what I am thinking, no doubt?

P.S. Robert, keep up the good work, and speak soon.

P.P.S. Short FTSE Oct. (IG Index) 6401. And I know this is the DOW thread, but as we all know, the FTSE is led by the DOW, as indeed are all other indices, and the spread is lower!

cheers - Tricks

Stopped out overnight at 6362 - +39. I think I may have put the stop in too close! However, +39 will do for now.

cheers - Tricks

 

[nkruger]

What makes you think anyone is going to give you their edge....just because you make a plea for it?

Why not ?

Had quite a few PM's with various bits of help over the last 9 months. I've also PM'd members with my strategies when they've asked. There are about 15 members that I personallyknow of that regularily swap ideas with each other.

Just one of the advantages of belonging to a forum like this......

 

[barjon]

I deleted some recent posts in an attempt to keep this valuable thread deteriorating into verbal spats between some members. Please don't continue in that vein. Thanks.

good trading

jon

 

[jacinto]

keep this valuable thread deteriorating into verbal spats between some members. Please don't continue in that vein. Thanks.

good trading

jon

I second you jon.

guys, my post is not as a mod, but as a member of the board as you. you guys have a nice thread, keep it like that.

by the way, was having a chat last night with my best friend. he is a trader at citibank, and deals with interest rates mostly (so not dow related). i wanted to know what he thought would be his view of the next days (i.e. next week FED).

actually, it was interesting, and was very telling (things we all know). apparently, the discussion is between a 25 bp reduction and a 50 bp. the large majority of analysts of research shops (banks included) stick with 25. very few, thought no reduction.....and within those few, one in particular was relevant to him, FreddieMAc (think it was this one) had a view of no rate cut.

anyway, lets see how it pans out. a scenario i see as very plausible is based on inflation not helping, and a rate decrease may only imply longer rates will go up (inflation fear), and a rate cut may bring equities up for a bit, and then tumble.

happy trading

 

[Ziff]

I deleted some recent posts in an attempt to keep this valuable thread deteriorating into verbal spats between some members. Please don't continue in that vein. Thanks.

good trading

jon

Good move Jon - thanks !

 

[ian]

Can somebody recommend a DA broker from their own experiece other than Interactve Brokers?

Thanks.

 

[bottomleyp]

DOW this afternoon

Hi Guys

What is your take on the DOW this afternoon , up down or leave alone and why?

 

[Dinos]

Good Afternoon to you all

 

[Dinos]

The long-awaited FOMC meeting is next week and the expected decision next Tuesday is that a rate cut is coming. The predominant bet is mixed, with some looking for a 25-basis point cut and others expecting a 50-basis point cut. That's all fine and dandy, but what is going to run the financial sector perhaps even more than the FOMC cut is the earnings wave coming from bulge bracket Wall Street investment banking giants.

These earnings estimates have come in sharply in most cases over the recent weeks because of the mortgage malaise that the markets have weathered. It is also quite possible that these estimates will come in farther as analysts still have three mornings to make their changes to estimates. If you saw how well these permed on Thursday, you might not think anything went wrong. Obviously that isn't the case. Some of these estimates could have also changed from calls on a given day, and most analysts have been trimming the estimates. Here is the expected report schedule with current estimates:

Lehman Brothers (NYSE:LEH) reports on Tuesday (9/18) and estimates are $1.47 EPS & Revenues of $4.3 Billion. Estimates were a dime higher just last week and were $1.81 EPS 60 to 90 days ago.

Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) reports on Wednesday. Morgan Stanley is expected to post $1.53 EPS & $8.3 Billion in revenues. Estimates were $1.60 last week and were over $1.82 90-days ago.

On Thursday (9/20) we get the dual reports from Bear Stearns (NYSE:BSC) and from Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS). Bear Stearns (NYSE:BSC) is expected to post $1.78 EPS on $1.65 Billion in revenues. Just a week ago, estimates were over $2.00, and were over $3.00 60 to 90 days ago. Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) is expected to post $4.35 EPS & $9.55 Billion in revenues. Goldman Sachs has seen the least amount of estimate changes of the bulge bracket firms.

Billionaire investor Joe Lewis just invested close to $1 Billion for a stake in Bear Stearns and he now appears to be the single largest shareholder. PIMCO has reportedly set up a $2 Billion distressed mortgage fund. A recent vulture fund was registered for an IPO. Things have improved even if there are still worries. You can tell part of it in the large gains seen in these stocks today.


What I'm looking at:-

 

[Dinos]

Very very quite on this thread these days,
if we break 425/30 we could head off higher, lower if 375 (ish) broken

 

[brutusdog]

Very very quite on this thread these days,
if we break 425/30 we could head off higher, lower if 375 (ish) broken

looks like its trying up at the mo dinos...

 

[catracho]

yep v quiet..guess all waiting for Tuesday..or a break higher (13500 + cash) or a break lower 13300 ..till then...looking at other stuff (oil, gold)...

 

[tricks]

Very very quite on this thread these days,
if we break 425/30 we could head off higher, lower if 375 (ish) broken

Hi M8,

Just got back from playing golf. I think we'll see another little push up later and then a sell off into the weekend? What do you reckon?

cheers - Tricks

P.S. Well done Barjon; I was waiting for the 'Pistols at Dawn' challenge from the content of some of the recent posts.

 

[Dinos]

Tricks,

Did you have a good round?, I haven't played this year, normally go to Scotland for a week with 7 mates, plenty of R&R, booze, food, and a little golf!!!

Really don't know at the minute tricks, its quite happy bobbling around, I'm biased short due to hourly charts, on the sidelines at the minute, waiting

 

[tricks]

Tricks,

Did you have a good round?, I haven't played this year, normally go to Scotland for a week with 7 mates, plenty of R&R, booze, food, and a little golf!!!

Really don't know at the minute tricks, its quite happy bobbling around, I'm biased short due to hourly charts, on the sidelines at the minute, waiting

Hi Dinos,

Yes, played well. Sorry to other fellow posters for being off topic, but it seems nobody else is around anyway. Very quiet on this thread at the moment, as you said earlier.

The sell off into the close looks a liitle weak? Looks like the bulls don't want to throw the towel in just yet.

cheers - Tricks