Dow 2007

[firewalker99]

Agreed.

What's niggling me is how the market commentators are selective in their 'focusing' on the drivers. I had thought the market was highly sensitive to inflation (due to impact on IRs)

Oil closed above $63 barrel (very inflationary), $ very weak (rather inflationary) but hey says the market, let's not focus on that right now.....let's focus on earnings for the *past* quarter (not the next 3 quarters!).

i once heard it said that the markets look forward 18-24 months....not anymore (if they did, the market would be nearer 11k than 13k)

Keep in mind that in the final phase of the bull market any bad news will be discounted, price will turn into a parabolic rise or very steep uptrend. It won't last for that long, but while it does the inflationary pressures and housing troubles that lying (dormant) beneath the market are not gone, but will come back with a vengeance.

Just no reason to short this yet. One nice long for me today with market on close:

 

[Atilla]

Keep in mind that in the final phase of the bull market any bad news will be discounted, price will turn into a parabolic rise or very steep uptrend. It won't last for that long, but while it does the inflationary pressures and housing troubles that lying (dormant) beneath the market are not gone, but will come back with a vengeance.

Just no reason to short this yet. One nice long for me today with market on close:

Very true.

Also, interest rate rises peak at the top of the cycle.

Markets discussing possibly one, maybe two more 0.25% increases.

This signals we are at the peak of an economic cycle (UK & ECB).

US worse scenario - stagnation = unemployment and inflation combined

 

[Pat494]

Late rally Friday evening.
I think perhaps I had better post on this thread after-all. The SPX thread has the EW & fib lot going strong. Interesting to note they are predicting further rises into next week.
Have a hot weekend ! I'm off to the seaside for a paddle. People swimming last week ( in their clothes ) !

 

[ajaskey]

Very true.

Also, interest rate rises peak at the top of the cycle.
Markets discussing possibly one, maybe two more 0.25% increases.
This signals we are at the peak of an economic cycle (UK & ECB).
US worse scenario - stagnation = unemployment and inflation combined

I think inflation in the US is under control. The CRB/20yr bond provides a good surrogate for inflation direction and magnitude. The last squareout of the time box was below three previous ones. I can see this moving higher in the next few months as equities climb and money leaves bonds and moves into stocks. At that point I think switching to bond may be a good idea.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CRB:TLT&p=W&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&id=p57935208341&a=83245456&listNum=2

 

[daytradingUK]

It's interesting (no pun intended) that the DOW keeps recording gains even when FTSE or NIKKEI have major off days, yet all the bad news realy seems to come out of America and China.

I had been expecting a major correction on Wednesday/Thursday / Friday but the Americans went up, despite a lot of bad news. There seems to be a deep rooted ignorance of any bad news at the minute with everyone claiming its already priced in, yet the first piece of good news is cause for a 50pt rally - its amazing to watch if you're sitting on the sidelines.

 

[hobby]

It's interesting (no pun intended) that the DOW keeps recording gains even when FTSE or NIKKEI have major off days, yet all the bad news realy seems to come out of America and China.

I had been expecting a major correction on Wednesday/Thursday / Friday but the Americans went up, despite a lot of bad news. There seems to be a deep rooted ignorance of any bad news at the minute with everyone claiming its already priced in, yet the first piece of good news is cause for a 50pt rally - its amazing to watch if you're sitting on the sidelines.

Concur totally about them taking bad news on the chin (which doesn't bode well for shorts once the bad news run out!)....I had been expecting a chunky pullback wed, thurs, fri too....even into Fridays close, oil closed at the highs of the day over $63 - no problem says the indices...let's push onwards & upwards! (whereas when it breached $60 just a few weeks ago, the market took a dump)

The longer this goes on, the more I'm convinced the unwinding won't be orderly over months, but probably more akin to 87.

It's not so amazing to watch when you're actually in the mkt (as opposed to on the sidelines!). hey ho....tis ony money!!!

 

[Pat494]

I think part of the bullish feeling in the Dow etc is because of the huge double digit GDP rises in China and India. Those are not the only countries really motoring now. A lot of the best of the US and European companies are positioning themselves with this in mind. Their trade is going to go up in leaps and bounds, maybe not this year but soon. As ever the week will falter and drop by the wayside. C'est la vie.

 

[Pat494]

A levelish opening but the trend is up. I'm on for a small long while the market makes its mind up.
Any correction won't imho be very big.
Any views ?

 

[catracho]

imho a push to and above 13k is on the cards - intraday...not sure we will close above 13k but you never know too late for a long trade for me now feels like we are due a correction of move from 12k so..will test a small short if we go above 13k..

 

[Pat494]

Out and back on the sidelines for a modest profit, while it dithers

 

[firewalker99]

Out and back on the sidelines for a modest profit, while it dithers

took a long preopen... exited with +25
flat now too... probably divert into chop

 

[Pat494]

Yumpty tumpty tum - drizzle here all day.
Waiting for a move to get me back into the market.
I guess its sunny in coin Cato ???
How about Belgium FW ?

 

[firewalker99]

Yumpty tumpty tum - drizzle here all day.
Waiting for a move to get me back into the market.
I guess its sunny in coin Cato ???
How about Belgium FW ?

hehe, it's been a very hot weekend
today things back to normal... the dow looks like it's cooling down too!

 

[Pat494]

I see a glimmer of light in its meanderings. Therefore a small and tentative long is on.

 

[Atilla]

hehe, it's been a very hot weekend
today things back to normal... the dow looks like it's cooling down too!

I've just gone short on the DOW based on the 4 hour charts with Standard Error Channel lines from it's last trend.

Looks like a little breather and some rest are required for the 13000 mental challenge.

 

[firewalker99]

I see a glimmer of light in its meanderings. Therefore a small and tentative long is on.

Hmm... I don't know..;staying flat, but looking to short rather than longs
I see a descending triangle



Edit: nice to see people calling out live trades!

 

[Atilla]

Hmm... I don't know..;staying flat, but looking to short rather than longs
I see a descending triangle

These Standard Error Channels are quite good for the identifying the long term trends.

This is what I based the short on.

 

[catracho]

Yumpty tumpty tum - drizzle here all day.

I guess its sunny in coin Cato ???
How about Belgium FW ?

yep v sunny here..warming up nicely !! makes up for a dull mkt!

 

[Pat494]

These Standard Error Channels are quite good for the identifying the long term trends.

This is what I based the short on.

I guess you know your own charts best AT but it looks to me like the channel is rising ?

 

[Atilla]

I guess you know your own charts best AT but it looks to me like the channel is rising ?

Yes quite right but I suppose it all depends on the time period for the trade.

MACD, RSI and Stochastics all looked stretched and pointing to a short too.

If 13000 is breached to the upside I'll make sure I'll run fast to the other side.

Always good to see what others see looking at the same object.