Dow 2007

2468steve said:
Hi guys,
been away for long weekend to Yorkshire......what a nitemare with the rain,I now know how a duck feels.I think i've developed webbed feet....:LOL:

Kept my shorts for the week and pleased to see they were closed out yesterday .....all my targets were hit convincingly.....13320 on Dow +410....1495 on SPX +430.....Dax 7845 +250...total +1090......

Think it done me a favour tho' being away from the screen as last two days appear to have been quite volatile and not sure whether i'd have held on....sometimes it's maybe best to just place a trade and then walk away......

I've got today as a possible low and pivot to the upside with higher prices into weekend....a big but tho' is if today ends negative even by a few points we are going much lower thru' this week and into next.....sub 13000 and into the 12700/600 area.....

good luck all
Click to expand...

Do you usually take simultaneous positions in so many correlated instruments?

A thousand pips in a week! I am very pleased for you - words fail me. I don't know about a break of 13000 cash any time soon - I'm open to it if I get enough signals.


Redbook and consumer sentiment out today - should be rather interesting (though I won't be around to trade after 2pm).
 
The Dax gives good morning opportunities since the FTSE no longer moves. I don't trade it (yet), I'm more focussed on the YM. A very good analysis of yesterday, particularly such shrewd attention to just price and volume which is rare for a new trader. Good entries and exits also.

You don't need to trade every day, and if you have the patience and discipline to wait for the high probability trades then you should be very pleased with that. Get a good record of paper trades first, and then when you try real funds (£1pp to begin with please) you'll be more confident in your execution and less likely to let your emotions influence your trading.

Best of luck, and welcome to T2W.

I am also a newbie, so you may wish to check out my journal (link in sig) which has received very positive feedback. Lately I've been focussed exclusively on trading the YM -you may find a few chart setups etc helpful.

tafita said:
Good evening

Excellent short opportunity today on the Dow at 1900. As I trade in the evenings the first I saw of the chart was at around 1830. There I saw huge gains from the morning (US) session which had reached a plateau at around the 13450 level which provided support. However, IMHO, support was weakening because volume had shrunk and formed a U shape, which is not that discernable from the attached chart (Apologies, the intraday chart has volume much more pronounced).

I remember thinking to myself that if the price breached the low at 13443 of the bear candle maked with the first upwards pointing arrow, then this would be the start of an extremely bearish move since volume had already begun to pick up on decreasing price action: the Dow had made two lower highs by 1900. As this was all set up, I was poised over the sell button on my tradindex virtual account.

As the price went through 13443, I waited for a pullback before entering short marked at the downward arrow. I did not know at this stage when the pullback would occur and it could have escaped me at a much lower price level. I am glad it did not as the price began to fall. The events that kept me in the trade at 13400 when the hammer formed was the fact that volume was decreasing as the price was rising which signalled weakness for a bullish move. I would have expected much higher volume before exiting the trade. Later as the price fell on massive selling the only problem I faced was where to exit since all previous resistance levels of the day were being smashed. In the end, i exited at the last upwards arrow admittedly out of fear of losing open equity since the price had begun to stabalise at 13350. Out for +81.

As a newbie to day trading, i am finding it difficult sometimes to find opportunities every day to trade the Dow which is why I only trade it on the sort of high probability trades such as today. I wonder if people could advise if there are any other indices that offer the same volatility as the Dow? I am actually looking at trading US equities since I think this would provide more opportunities.

Thanks for reading and please feel free to ask questions or give feedback.

Tafita
Click to expand...
 
lurkerlurker said:
Do you usually take simultaneous positions in so many correlated instruments?

A thousand pips in a week! I am very pleased for you - words fail me. I don't know about a break of 13000 cash any time soon - I'm open to it if I get enough signals.


Redbook and consumer sentiment out today - should be rather interesting (though I won't be around to trade after 2pm).
Click to expand...

Hi LL,
I got sell signals on NDX originally which led to SPX trade after it failed to get over it's 1540 high...Dax then gave me a sell the following day after it got over it's high and closed below it...so basically I was averaging into lower prices as the trades were going my way...I tend to hold for a week around options expiry...found the week before options expiry is generally the opposite move to where they want to take the market into options expiration,then the week after reverts back to the original trend...so we were down pre expiry week,up big into option expiry,down last week...this obviously is not a fail safe method but you generally know pretty quickly if you're wrong...and we are after all in the probabability business...nothing is certain we just need to have the odds tipped in our favour.....probable outcomes not definate outcomes

cheers
 
lurkerlurker said:
Do you usually take simultaneous positions in so many correlated instruments?

A thousand pips in a week! I am very pleased for you - words fail me. I don't know about a break of 13000 cash any time soon - I'm open to it if I get enough signals.


Redbook and consumer sentiment out today - should be rather interesting (though I won't be around to trade after 2pm).
Click to expand...

Fed meeting starts tomorrow and Thursday.....that will shake things up....13000 is not unlikely if the market doesn't like what it hears.....if 13200 goes 13000 could get hit quicker than we'd think....
As ever tho' I'd let the market show me it's hand first....

cheers

cheers
 
2468steve said:
Fed meeting starts tomorrow and Thursday.....that will shake things up....13000 is not unlikely if the market doesn't like what it hears.....if 13200 goes 13000 could get hit quicker than we'd think....
As ever tho' I'd let the market show me it's hand first....

cheers

cheers
Click to expand...

I can see Atilla et al coming out of hibernation any time now. I'd love a break of 13000 to the downside. In fact I think I have a permanent bear bias (which only has merit in bear markets).

I think we've had the parabolic exhaustion on this market now, and there is plenty room for a fall.

I'm short a disappointing Redbook with either a closed trade after a few minutes, or a breakeven stop open until EOD. If the market rallies at 13:55 London I'll just stay flat. I need to go out at 2 anyway, so if I go short on the announcement I'll either get stopped out, take profits in 5 minutes, or hopefully be able to put in a breakeven stop.
 
two possible outcomes based on the recent range 13650-13200
 

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Bugger. Was short there, out for -10. (5 spread, 5 adverse points). Off out now - I'll come back to find the YM down a few hundred points I'd expect. Nevermind.
 
Pat494 said:
support broke first
anyone with any view they would like to share ?
Click to expand...

hi Pat,
I think we're in a bit of no mans land here......420 and 350 is the range but I'd be looking for a break of either 480 or 320 to feel comfortable short/long

cheers
 
Put a trailing stop on at a little better than b/e to just lock in some profit
and see how it goes ????????????????
 
Pat494 said:
Hi Steve
I'm in for a short ( S&P fut )
Are you in yet ?
Click to expand...

not yet.....only just closed my last lot of shorts:LOL:

very whippy again today and I don't really like scalping the range....prefer the market to show me which way it wants to break first....tempted to short if 350 breaks tho'
 
Pat494 said:
Put a trailing stop on at a little better than b/e to just lock in some profit
and see how it goes ????????????????
Click to expand...

Just as well I put in that trailer - it got triggered - small pickens but sumat
 
You're right. I was stopped out, but the stop was so close no damage done
 
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