Dow 2007

[lurkerlurker]

Sit and wait!? I have a position

13495 will tell me I am wrong (above high of last 15 min bar), 13500 would confirm I am wrong, and I'll probably get around to exiting about 13517, when my stop is hit.

I have a first target of 73 in mind. I don't want to exit a winning position sooner than that. Still regretting not holding my earlier short from 88. If I had set SL at 13518 (-30), I would have still been in the trade. Instead I have a new entry from 1 tic worse, a booked loss of 13, and an extra spread of 5.

Whereever I close this new trade, I would be £19 better off if I hadn't covered my last one, and instead covered the last trade where I cover this trade.

 

[Dinos]

Apologies, misundertood

 

[lurkerlurker]

Evening session to kick off. There will be a break one way or the other. Folk will probably come back from lunch around now I would think.

I'm wrong 10 points up from here, and will try my best exit from that point. Something tells me they will try and shake out weak bears before plunging it, or weak bulls before rallying. I'm expecting a false move one way or the other.

 

[brutusdog]

that magic number 64 springs to mind ....cash.

just took another +12 from a binary in 1 min

 

[lurkerlurker]

Out +7. That is a cover at 13480 TradIndex bid and 13476 market mid price (otFeed for YMU7)/ Now watch it drop without me. I covered due to lack of momentum, a reluctance to let a profit become a loss, and the fact I could feel myself becoming stressed.

Also, anyone else see the Tick divergence I see on the charts, which supports a rally? I do, and I don't have the pips to spare today to risk that. Cash is king when you are unsure about staying in a trade.

This exit is in accordance with my rules (thought I'd say that now, and don't listen if I say anything else should the market drop 50 points.) The exit was right.

Net -28 for today. (better than net -35, no?)

Oh, following on from my previous post. Covering the 88 short was premature. Covering the 89 short was an okay exit. The "brain fart" trade wasn't too bad, but I exited for the right reasons.

Does this snippet tell you anything. (moderators / site admins - are you going to allow us to post tables anytime soon?)

Open 12/06/2007 16:40 Sell £1 1 13489
Closed 12/06/2007 16:40 Buy £1 1 13502 £-13.00
Open 12/06/2007 17:15 Sell £1 1 13488
Closed 12/06/2007 17:19 Buy £1 1 13495 £-7.00
Open 12/06/2007 17:36 Sell £1 1 13487
Closed 12/06/2007 18:07 Buy £1 1 13480 £7.00​

I'm going to be posting on my journal after the market closes. Could I ask you all for help. I need assistance in reviewing each trade today objectively. I will post my entries, exits, reasons for entering and exiting, and thoughts during the trade. I have overtraded today, and not taken good signals. However, I do feel there is some improvement in my trading (I will quantify this improvement later if I can, but I also need people to tell me if I am kidding myself).

There goes the upside break. Thankfully I covered. Did anyone else see that on tick earlier?

I'll post a chart.

 

[Atilla]

Back again from my rest.

LL I'm surprised you are making a loss as I've read you shorted from up at 87 and I'm seeing 57.

Take your +30 pips now and enjoy your evening.

I did think DOW would raise it's ugly head again... Honest.

I was expecting a bounce from 310 regions though. It touched 320s and back up again. This could be the formation of the H&S reversal righ shoulder?

I think the DOW is treading water testing support between 13300 - 13500. It's now norrowing. On the BBs it is looking like breaking out to the down side on my 1 hourly charts. I think this is a false breakout to the down side. I reckon it's going up.

Towards evening session I'm expecting the DOW to bounce back up. 350 level looks like has been rejected to me.

 

[lurkerlurker]

Question. When I saw that Tick divergence and exited the short trade believing a reversal was going to take palce, and ther would be an upside breakout, why did I not reverse? A hight stop below the double bottom at 72 would have been fine from an entry 5 tics higher. With spread, my risk would only have been 10. Reward - rally to resistance, possibly beyond.

Silly me.

 

[lurkerlurker]

Back again from my rest.

LL I'm surprised you are making a loss as I've read you shorted from up at 87 and I'm seeing 57.

I shorted from 87 and covered it at +7. I am quoting futures prices.

Take your +30 pips now and enjoy your evening.

Don't have 30 pips, but I can enjoy my +7 which puts me at net -28 for the day.

I did think DOW would raise it's ugly head again... Honest.

I didn't, until I noticed that downside momentum was drying up, volume was pretty low, and there was a positive $Tick divergence. The double bottom formation on the 5 minute chart clinched it. The market was not going lower than 72, and I got out at a spreadbet price when the market said 76 (which is 4 pips off the low).

I should have reversed having seen a double bottom and bullish $Tick, but I am a bit nervous today.

I was expecting a bounce from 310 regions though. It touched 320s and back up again. This could be the formation of the H&S reversal righ shoulder?

The eternal bear. Just trade the market both ways. The amount of rallies you have predicted and then not traded is enough to make me breakeven. You seem to say things like "the market will rally, so I will be flat during that and come back when it peaks". Even if you call the peaks and short the dips, you are still failing to profit by buying rallies.

I think the DOW is treading water testing support between 13300 - 13500. It's now norrowing. On the BBs it is looking like breaking out to the down side on my 1 hourly charts. I think this is a false breakout to the down side. I reckon it's going up.

Towards evening session I'm expecting the DOW to bounce back up. 350 level looks like has been rejected to me.

Interesting point. I'll make sure to consider that in my review and tomorrows premarket.

 

[Dinos]

short 80 cash

 

[lurkerlurker]

I have a long signal from current market (13506) but it is too close to resistance for my liking.

 

[Atilla]

I shorted from 87 and covered it at +7. I am quoting futures prices.

Don't have 30 pips, but I can enjoy my +7 which puts me at net -28 for the day.

I didn't, until I noticed that downside momentum was drying up, volume was pretty low, and there was a positive $Tick divergence. The double bottom formation on the 5 minute chart clinched it. The market was not going lower than 72, and I got out at a spreadbet price when the market said 76 (which is 4 pips off the low).

I should have reversed having seen a double bottom and bullish $Tick, but I am a bit nervous today.

The eternal bear. Just trade the market both ways. The amount of rallies you have predicted and then not traded is enough to make me breakeven. You seem to say things like "the market will rally, so I will be flat during that and come back when it peaks". Even if you call the peaks and short the dips, you are still failing to profit by buying rallies.


Interesting point. I'll make sure to consider that in my review and tomorrows premarket.

Interesting examination LL. I prefer not to over trade. I rather lose a potential gain than make a loss. I think my analysis is right most of the time.

It's the timing that messes me up. I can get direction right and still make a loss at times.

Thanks to these boards and all the good tradering advice here I am now able to divorce my position pretty quickly without having hangups about the trade.

By the way I am a bear but that H&S reversal is a bullish one. Especially if we break 13420 regions. I think it will either disolve or come in to play in the next couple of days.

 

[lurkerlurker]

I'll buy a break of 22 on the YMU7 and sell a rejection of it. I'll need to make sure the SB quotes are skewed in my favour rather than against me though.

 

[lurkerlurker]

Interesting examination LL. I prefer not to over trade. I rather lose a potential gain than make a loss. I think my analysis is right most of the time.

It's the timing that messes me up. I can get direction right and still make a loss at times.

Thanks to these boards and all the good tradering advice here I am now able to divorce my position pretty quickly without having hangups about the trade.

By the way I am a bear but that H&S reversal is a bullish one. Especially if we break 13420 regions. I think it will either disolve or come in to play in the next couple of days.

I don't see the H&S - I presume it is on a higher timeframe than 3, 5, or 15? I think I can see something resembling one on the 15, with a neckline at 500 presently.

Do you think I am overtrading today? I am trying to curb that as much as possible.

 

[Dinos]

Grrrrrrrrrr!!!!!!!!!, my mistake, chart had froze and placed trade on what I saw. Got a bit of leeway in the trade at the moment, but fear the worse.

 

[lurkerlurker]

Damnnit! I tried to limit enter at 26, quote now 36.

 

[Dinos]

Its nearly all over, it is now, out -15

 

[lurkerlurker]

I guess my SB firm have a faster quote than I think they did. 26 was a cheeky entry given that the mid had just jumped to 27.

 

[lurkerlurker]

Great. Since I've been waffline it has gone up another 10. Against spread I could have entered and made £5 instead of typing this. However, I did not.

Thank god I wasn't short. Hurrah for discipline and sticking to the system (which was screaming longs only as I contemplated shorting another imaginary double top.

 

[lurkerlurker]

Its nearly all over, it is now, out -15

Sorry to hear that. Caught short I guess.

I wanted to be long of that, but didn't get it. Serves me for placing a cheeky limit though a web platform in a fast moving market. I should have used a market order if I was so sure of the move, and a limit to enter 4 higher than the real market if I actually wanted a fill. Instead, I was cheeky.

 

[lurkerlurker]

As you can imagine I'm beating myself up for not taking the long signal at 76.

I'm not one for stop and reverse, but Reminiscences of a Stock Operator comes to mind. If you cover a short you are bullish, and if you are bullish you should be long. I covered a short not out of uncertainty but because I saw the bottom and a reversal ahead. Tick confirmed this. Had I gone long.....