Dow 2007

[Bez]

🙂

nothing changed since I posted these charts....So I'll stick with them for now...😱 🙂

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/attachment.php?attachmentid=25815

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/attachment.php?attachmentid=25663

 

[smccreedy]

Daily Dow marked down 40 points at cantor already.

Problem is you can draw any number of broken supports lines since the July 06 low and all have only made for higher highs eventually.

RSI looks weaker than it has one some previous breaks so this might signal a more bearish tone but overall if you wanted to be with the trend I guess you'd be buying this morning around 12590 with a stop and reverse maybe 50 points or so below.

Stephen McCreedy

 

[smccreedy]

I don't want to get too excited, as I have a badly offside short March Dow trade that is becoming less painful at the moment.

However, if the DJIA gaps down at the open beneath the longer term daily support line we might see quite a breakaway and it might be the kind of window that lazy bulls expect to be closed quickly only for it to remain open for a longer period as the top has been formed. At least for the short term.

A similar gap was left open when the bear market low was reached although there was more of a selling climax than I feel we saw a buying climax as it failed at 12,800 last week.

When Alan Greenspan warns of a recession, the yield curve becomes more inverted and no one thinks it the good times are over, they probably are over.

Looking back at the markets since 2003 each year we've has significant pull backs at some stage. So far this year it as been too easy for the bulls just as it was before the near 10% fall last May.

This might be it coming now. Bears have been burnt here before but even a broken clock is right twice a day.

Stephen McCreedy

 

[Atilla]

I don't want to get too excited, as I have a badly offside short March Dow trade that is becoming less painful at the moment.

However, if the DJIA gaps down at the open beneath the longer term daily support line we might see quite a breakaway and it might be the kind of window that lazy bulls expect to be closed quickly only for it to remain open for a longer period as the top has been formed. At least for the short term.

A similar gap was left open when the bear market low was reached although there was more of a selling climax than I feel we saw a buying climax as it failed at 12,800 last week.

When Alan Greenspan warns of a recession, the yield curve becomes more inverted and no one thinks it the good times are over, they probably are over.

Looking back at the markets since 2003 each year we've has significant pull backs at some stage. So far this year it as been too easy for the bulls just as it was before the near 10% fall last May.

This might be it coming now. Bears have been burnt here before but even a broken clock is right twice a day.

Stephen McCreedy

I have the dow going down to 12521. It's already dropped out of its trendline on the daily charts.
If it falls in the range 12500 - 12475 or below well then its going to be very interesting.

 

[FetteredChinos]

just treat this as a buying opportunity guys, they dont happen often enough at the moment..

we will be significantly higher before the end of april. end of tax year in both US and UK. pre-election year etc..

load up, lowish leverage, and let time weave its magic..

fc

 

[smccreedy]

At what level will you be looking to buy FC and at what point should you go long would you accept long was wrong?

I'm looking to cover some of my shorts Futs today and I think if there are many like me there might be quite a bounce.

But if there are more stubborn bulls still that won't sell out I can see DJIA - 200 today.

Hopefully I'll be in my local by then though relieved the famous 2007 short future debacle is well and truly behind me!

Stephen McCreedy

 

[FetteredChinos]

At what level will you be looking to buy FC and at what point should you go long would you accept long was wrong?

I'm looking to cover some of my shorts Futs today and I think if there are many like me there might be quite a bounce.

But if there are more stubborn bulls still that won't sell out I can see DJIA - 200 today.

Hopefully I'll be in my local by then though relieved the famous 2007 short future debacle is well and truly behind me!

Stephen McCreedy

have been long since 11,660 back towards the end of september as a longer-term position (and added at 12,100 and 12,400 as mentioned on here before)

as a short term position from here, i would be looking at a long from about now, assuming a defence of 12,500, targeting at the very least a gap close back up towards fridays close.. i would only abandon my bullish view if we make a look like making a significantly lower high on the daily/weekly charts..

im not going to argue against 80 years of history... long and right is the way guys... gotta have faith 😉

 

[leovirgo]

Greenspan's comments made Chinese markets nervous and subsequently profit taking. Anyway, february correction after santa rally is long overdue..

 

[smccreedy]

The trend is your friend, except for the end, when it bends

 

[FetteredChinos]

bit riskier selling peaks in an uptrend.. often the market can just trade sideways until it finds the bottom of the channel before resuming its upward momentum..

worryingly, im actually on the same side of a trade as socco, but im trying not to let that cloud my judgement 😉

 

[smccreedy]

Well my £15pp March Futs are covered at 12,547, could have done a little better but was -£3,000 at worst and walked away up +£300.

A quick trip to the gym then the local to mop my brow and think long and hard about how only losers average losers and although this time I was offered a way out doom was looming.

Another saying springs to mine regards position size; it isn't how big it is but how big it feels that counts.

Will sleep tonight perhaps.

Stephen McCreedy

 

[FetteredChinos]

wonder if we will close positive for the day...?

😉

 

[Kinger]

Anyone still long ?
Just heard on bloomberg this is something to to do with China ...
Can anyone exlain in brief please ... ?

 

[ian]

Anyone still long ?
Just heard on bloomberg this is something to to do with China ...
Can anyone exlain in brief please ... ?

China declared war on America...I think they plan to invade tonight.

 

[myz555]

Anyone still long ?
Just heard on bloomberg this is something to to do with China ...
Can anyone exlain in brief please ... ?

World shares wobble on China fear
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6400789.stm

I don't want to be patronizing but a trader should have known this since the early morning

 

[Kinger]

Ah I see, I didn't think this would have such an affect on all the markets so quickly.
I've just been reading a book from Richard Farleigh - Taming the Lion, (which is a very good book), but, he does say markets react slower to things like this than people image. So, I was a little late in jumping on this earlier today ... exciting stuff ..

 

[Kinger]

myz555, Nope not me, I'm still at the text book stage ,.. was this decline obvious to happen ? this savere ... patronize-a-way ... its a good lesson for me its constructive.

 

[Hook Shot]

Loud Warning from City Wizard

Interesting comment about Merrill's I'll put it on my Short Watch......... we've been warned a slap is coming best to be prepared.... the Fidelity guy announced his short position almost a month ago..... we're on countdown!!

Not sure of the article kriesau had one somewhere but......... he said early Dec I've taken out a 3m put option on Ftse ....... he was pretty clear about his reasons ...at the time. To say nothing of going out on a limb.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2006/12/08/cnbolton08.xml
Sod's law says the link won't work :cheesy:

 

[dc2000]

more of the same tomorrow

 

[Bez]

Looks like I have to amend that elliottt count 😀