Dow 2006

Battle is about right. This one's a bit like the Somme - we're rather bogged down.

We do have CAT results out afterhours and MSFT tomorrow. It could be interesting to be long overnight. CAT generally don't disappoint.
 
Aha you mention McD..... whilst watching paint dry I shorted it off 52w high - it went down cashed in my chips. Then Ronald came back for more I shorted it again and duly went down again - fabulous evening. Hope you guys having fun too .............despite dow inaction.

Hookie
 
Dow Bulls have the initiative at the moment.
Support at 10680 tested but not effectively breached - so far.
 
CAT generally don't disappoint.

Apart from last time. :) I bought 1 Feb 65 put for $3.50 in case it happens again. Looking for 54.
 

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Good shout Frugi - All Time High too........!
I'm praying for a pop/flat open since I have no position.
 
DC2000 still around?? just wondering if he still has his target of 10408 on the dow.
 
Hi Candles
Yes I do, It has to be achieved by Monday to still remain valid
 
This explains why GM shares have gained almost 20% this week !

Kirk Kerkorian Boosts Stake in General Motors to 9.9 Percent With New Purchase of Shares

DETROIT (AP) -- Investor Kirk Kerkorian spent more than $250 million this week to boost his holding in General Motors Corp to nearly 10 percent, buying the shares only about a month after he'd sold a similar stake. On Thursday, investors are likely to weigh in on the wisdom of his bet as the world's largest automaker was scheduled to report its fourth-quarter and full-year results for 2005. Wall Street is expecting a loss.

A day ahead of the report, Kerkorian's private equity firm disclosed in a filing with the SEC that it had bought 5 million shares of GM stock on Monday for an average purchase price of $21.40, or approximately $107 million. On Tuesday, Tracinda Corp. agreed to buy another 7 million GM shares in a private transaction for $22.25 per share, or approximately $155.8 million. Those purchases would boost Kerkorian's stake in the world's largest automaker to 9.9 percent, the same as it was before Beverly Hills, Calif.-based Tracinda sold 12 million shares in December.

Tracinda said at the time that it sold the shares so that it could end its fiscal year with a capital loss, making it eligible for certain federal and California income tax breaks. Kerkorian lost $109 million on the 12 million shares he sold in December. But Tracinda left open the possibility of reacquiring shares, and it waited only a short time after so-called wash rules lapsed. Federal tax rules prohibit a taxpayer from claiming a loss on the sale of stock if replacement shares are acquired within 30 days.

GM's shares fell to a 23-year low following Kerkorian's sale in December. The automaker has been struggling with declining U.S. sales and rising health care and materials costs. GM lost nearly $4 billion in the first nine months of last year, and its stock tumbled 52 percent in 2005. Kerkorian has lost approximately $350 million in the total value of his 56 million GM shares since he began buying up shares at an average price of $30.10 last spring. His latest move may indicate he believes GM is listening to his ideas for improving the company. In a speech to Wall Street analysts this month, Kerkorian's top aide Jerome York called on GM to cut its annual dividend in half and set profitability goals and a timetable for achieving them. York said Kerkorian was interested in buying more GM shares and was optimistic about its recovery efforts, but he said it was time for GM to get into a "crisis mode."

GM Chairman and CEO Rick Wagoner has repeatedly said GM has a clear recovery plan, including a restructuring that will cut 30,000 jobs and close 12 facilities by 2008. He also said GM's board must decide whether to cut the dividend. GM pays $2 per share annually in dividends.
 
Mr De-o-luxe said:
Oil starting to creep up, Hamas may get in, a new dynamic another angry country.

They don't seem too bothered at the moment, FTSE up 30+, Dow Futs up nearly 50 & the Dax & CAC Futs 60 odd.....
 
Slapshot said:
They don't seem too bothered at the moment, FTSE up 30+, Dow Futs up nearly 50 & the Dax & CAC Futs 60 odd.....


Correction, make that a 110+ point leap on the Dax (Cash) :eek:
 
frugi said:
If this 1-2-3 setup launches us up then 10760 looks like a sensible first target, followed by 10800-10820. I think she may want to fill the futs gap at 714 (685ish cash) first, mind.

So far so good Frugi - or should we call you Sir ? :)
H
 
frugi said:
Apart from last time. :) I bought 1 Feb 65 put for $3.50 in case it happens again. Looking for 54.

Yeah, I seem to recall that. I happen to think you may get it wrong today, but best of luck. Looking for $1.10. However, maybe guidance will be poor with the homebuiders falling off.
 
macbonzo said:
Yeah, I seem to recall that. I happen to think you may get it wrong today, but best of luck. Looking for $1.10. However, maybe guidance will be poor with the homebuiders falling off.

THEY BEAT TODAY!! PLUS $4.65-5.00 EPS FOR 2K6
 
I did say, last night, that it might have been a good trade to buy Dow/S&P at the close and sell at the open this morning. Certainly you would have taken a 7 point gain on the S&P futures on that basis (1269 - 1276).

The thing about CAT is that in weighting terms it is one of the top 3 stocks in the Dow.

I wonder if we will sell into this or build upon it?
 
Yep I remember your overnight call spot on.....did you take the trade ?
This things interesting cos of next 10800-20 zone. but also cos CAT will be vulnerable for next few days since right up aganst (rez from Frugi's analysis).
H
 
They certainly seem pleased with the CAT today. Excellent call macbonzo. However, I don't see huge upside potential from here. *desperately searches for non-log chart that looks toppy* :)
 

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Hook Shot said:
Yep I remember your overnight call spot on.....did you take the trade ?
This things interesting cos of next 10800-20 zone. but also cos CAT will be vulnerable for next few days since right up aganst (rez from Frugi's analysis).
H

Unfortunately not. I am a very short-term momentum trader and yesterday's action around lunchtime was very choppy. Normally I would expect a 20-25 point range on the Dow during 4.30 - 6.30 period. Yesterday it was 60 -70 points. I did get a long in around 6.30 but was stopped out (on a very tight stop). The volume did not pick up as much as I would have liked post 7.00pm. It really took until after 8.00pm to realise the bottom was in. All in all, I suspect quite a few people would have lost money yesterday trading both directions.

I do seem to recall reading a statistic in James Altucher's book "Trade like a Hedge Fund" that if you bought the close of the SPY every night and sold every morning (from 1993 to 2003) your average return per trade would have been 0.05%. Conversely, buying the open and selling the close of SPY over the same period would have resulted in an average profit per trade of -0.01%

That said, during earnings season, such a strategy is for the rather well endowed (in the broadest sense) trader. Today it would have worked a treat, but remember a few days ago when INTC and YHOO were getting thumped and the Dow opened down 70 points?
 
In the old days (when there was volatility) ....I used to trade at close and close by 8AM usually used to work well especially if massively overbought/sold at close. 25/30pts net was not unusual. Come back Mr Vol we've missed you. All the best.
 
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