Dow 2006

Hook Shot said:
Solent, what level do you think we'll get to before decent rally (if below 10550) ?
Some further thoughts, which stretch my limited TA skills. The last few days have seen a bearish flag develop (slanting up against the downtrend) Some analysts say the break out will be around the width of the congestion, some say the same as the flag 'pole', in both cases this represents about 200 points - target 10,550

Just points I'm considering - not a suggestion to do anything.
 
Hey, Dax is flying is that leading indicator for US - or what ? US futures tame they can't both be right ??
 
I think the German consumer confidence data was better than expected.

In the US, we have the Dec Home Sales figures out at 15.00 exp (6.9m). Thus far US companies results seem relatively good this morning and NYMEX is 66.60. If Home Sales figure is poor, we could see quite a pullback. This will be the key to the market today imho. Yesterday the initial up move was faded at 15.30.
 
macbonzo said:
In the US, we have the Dec Home Sales figures out at 15.00 exp (6.9m). Thus far US companies results seem relatively good this morning and NYMEX is 66.60. If Home Sales figure is poor, we could see quite a pullback. This will be the key to the market today imho.
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Sales of existing homes set a record for a fifth straight year in 2005 even though the year ended on a weaker note with three straight monthly declines, sending a strong signal that the nation's housing boom is beginning to cool. The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of previously owned homes and condominiums dropped by 5.7 percent in December compared to the sales pace in November. It marked the third consecutive monthly decline, something that has not occurred in more than three years. Even with the sales weakness in the last three months of the year, total sales in 2005 climbed to an all-time high of 7.072 million units, up 4.2 percent from the 6.784 million homes and condominiums sold in 2004. David Lereah, chief economist for the Realtors, said he expected price increases to slow this year as sales drop by around 6 percent. He said this would represent a cooling housing market but not a collapse as some analysts had feared. "This is part of the market adjustment we have been discussing with a soft landing in sight for the housing sector," Lereah said.
 
Still short from 10825 (March).
Price action really choppy so far today between 10710 - 10750.
Looking for a further decline IF it can convincingly breach 10680 (Cash) !
 
Last edited:
Very tradeable figure, S&P futures dumped from 1275 to 1267 in a few minutes.

Clearly the market does not fancy this figure. My feeling is we are gearing up for another fall to about 1250. When this happens is more difficult to predict.
 
kriesau said:
Still short from 10825 (March).
Price action really choppy so far today between 10710 - 10750.
Looking for a further decline IF it can convincingly breach 10680 !

Yes I think you are right. This a very risky area. I think we may see a move between 6.45 - 7.30pm.

Lets see if the bulls can get us positive first. Earnings today are not bad and the price of crude has come off a bit That said the momentum seems to be down.
 
Macbonzo - as you know major indices generally move in tandem directonally so I asgain highlight the STARK contrast between Dax and Dow - so far.

I believe either Dow rallies to catch up or Dax eases tomorrow - probably an "egg on face" comment but we'll see. I take your points in any case. Happy Trading.

Cheers
 
Decent recovery from the lows. What is happening is that, as oil falls back, the oil sector, which has the second largest weighting in the S&P falls too. In general a fall in oil price is a positive for the market, but obviously not for the oil sector.

I'm waiting till later to take a position, but be wary of going short here. It is very much headfake area. My guess is that with oil falling back we are more than likely to get a move up after lunch.

Best of luck.
 
Hi Mac, I like you am looking to go long and have a tiny long in readiness. Thanks for further explanation hadn't looked at it that way. Cheers
 
I'm always wary of lunchtime. Volume gets light and stops are taken out. My favoured time is 6.45pm. Patience is very much a virtue in this game. Keep your eye on volume. If day lows are taken out by .25 point on low volume it doesn't mean much.
 
Hook Shot said:
Macbonzo - as you know major indices generally move in tandem directonally so I asgain highlight the STARK contrast between Dax and Dow - so far.

I believe either Dow rallies to catch up or Dax eases tomorrow - probably an "egg on face" comment but we'll see. I take your points in any case. Happy Trading.

Cheers
Dax and Dow have not moved in tandem for quite awhile.

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=^DJI&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=^gdaxi
 
This is looking a bit ominous. Volume is picking up and we are struggling. Be careful with that long
 
Bounced off 10700 twice today but has run out of steam around 10750.
Downside looks to be the most likely direction at the moment but it has to breach support at 10680 first.
 
We are certainly poised. My feeling is that we won't do it this time. I think that we will recover after lunch. It is a close thing. I was short on the Home Sales number, but I think a few folk will get caught out here.

I certainly wouldn't bet the castle on it though. Just a question of what the mob does after lunch.
 
Top