Dow 2006

Frugi, MacBonzo - Cat popped to 64 into resistance zone (courtesy Sir Frugi) then flopped to below 63 - MISSED IT my system went down...... - easy money ........Totally Gutted.

Sir Frugi - 60 seems solid support...... 54 ? Mmmmh!
 
CMC and Finspreads were much lagging in their quotes. One time, realtime market was 10816 and their quotes (CFD & Cash) were about 10802-806. Anybody notices?
 
Hi leovirgo
I did notice that too - CMC seemed to let their price fall back below what is normally about 20pts from the futes, out to about 28pts at one point. They do this frequently, and I guess it's something to do with their programming, and maybe what their net position is with the client accounts!?!?
Not sure really, but it was a good opportunity to take a long at a good price. I'm holding a long term long from 10700, so didn't take the opportunity. ;)
Cheers
Q
 
Quercus said:
Hi leovirgo
I did notice that too - CMC seemed to let their price fall back below what is normally about 20pts from the futes, out to about 28pts at one point. They do this frequently, and I guess it's something to do with their programming, and maybe what their net position is with the client accounts!?!?
Not sure really, but it was a good opportunity to take a long at a good price. I'm holding a long term long from 10700, so didn't take the opportunity. ;)
Cheers
Q
Thanks Q.
 
Bullish case the pullback to 1259/60 is relatively shallow leaving the possibility of an explosive resumption of the trend. Perhaps that's what the Dax/CAC are telling us . Lows of the last few days seems firm however.

Bear case spx is only up "One day" after 9d slide, despite taking out Wed highs. The lows of the recent past have not been stress tested and is very new.
HS
 
Dire GDP figure (1.1% vs 2.8%exp), Dow futures drop 20 points. Now the question is does the market continue to sell off on the weak figure or rally because the FOMC are unlikely to increase interest rates? My guess is that we are going down today.
 
Looking again at the figure, the core deflator is up at 2.2%, (Fed targets 1% - 2%). So we have slow growth and continued inflationary pressure. Stagflation threat.
 
I know that I am about to be accused of having too much coffee, but I don't think you can overstate how bad the GDP figure is. In addition to the stagflation threat we also have the sale of durable goods down 17.5% and a negative savings rate.
 
macbonzo said:
I know that I am about to be accused of having too much coffee, but I don't think you can overstate how bad the GDP figure is. In addition to the stagflation threat we also have the sale of durable goods down 17.5% and a negative savings rate.


add this to it as well

"Business fixed investment was the lowest in three years"

they were relying on business to take over from the consumer weren't they?
 
macbonzo said:
Dire GDP figure (1.1% vs 2.8%exp), Dow futures drop 20 points. Now the question is does the market continue to sell off on the weak figure or rally because the FOMC are unlikely to increase interest rates? My guess is that we are going down today.
What makes you think that the FOMC are unlikely to increase interest rates ?
I would have thought that it was 95% likely that they will implement another 25 basis pts at Greenspans last meeting next week.
 
Sorry, I should have been more precise. What I meant was that with such a poor headline GDP figure would have suggested that there was only one more 25bp hike left. However seeing the chain deflator figure that comes into question.
 
Racer said:
add this to it as well

"Business fixed investment was the lowest in three years"

they were relying on business to take over from the consumer weren't they?
Apart from weakening fundamentals, ballooning deficits and an unpopular President there is the creeping shadow of a direct confrontation with the hardline government in Iran and the potential impact that this would have on oil prices.

Furthermore there is another flashpoint emerging in the Middle East. Although Hamas will almost certainly adopt a more pragmatic approach once faced with the responsibility of power (not to mention the potential reality of aid being cut) their victory in the elections could undermine Olmert in the upcoming Israeli election and let in that right wing nut Netanyahu. A Netanyahu/Hamas standoff would be a real flashpoint and Iran and Al Queda would certainly try to ensure that pot was stirred to boiling point too.

Uncertain times !
 
and so the dow goes up 80 :rolleyes:

edit.. make that 93 so far
 
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December new home sales rose 2.9% to 1.269 mln as downward revisions were seen for the prior three months. Inventories of unsold homes held at 4.9 months as annual prices fell to actual declines from a year ago. Median prices were -3.4% yoy as average prices fell -4% yoy. The price collapse from a 14% yoy pace in September suggests that anxious builders are willing to give in to avoid delayed sales. Existing home prices remain quite firm at 11% yoy. The detail shows Dec gains in the Midwest and West as the Northeast and powerful South showed declines.
 
earnings are actually looking bettter...not as ugly as it was pictured earlier
housing is actually above expected....i had bad information on housing and thought housing was down.
im in the hole now.
 
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