Dow 2006

[mark twain uk]

Hi folks,

Wishing everybody a Very Merry Christmas and a Happy and Prosperous New Year.

 

[mark twain uk]

not as many points as anticipated from my trade still looking to close early doors around the 500 mark will do me then take some time off from trading

dc,

I too am long now, after scalping 20 points on the way down, I covered and reversed at 12,456 cash with a S/L 20 points below, so I will either close on a spike up or get stopped out at B/E. Either way I will close at the end of the day and will take a break until the new year.

p.s. I tried to send you a quick Merry Chrismas email to your old yahoo email address and came back as undeliverable.

 

[Silvertip]

Who goes there ? Is that Santa or is it The Grinch ?

 

[andycan]

its always santa when trading the right side

 

[mark twain uk]

I dont know.. when will these bears ever learn !

Maybe you rushed a bit with that statement, the bears will have their days

 

[frugi]

Good Lord a textbook chart pattern actually worked. Don't mess with an Adam and Eve top Especially if it comes after a double top at same resistance level.

Ok not as pronounced as this one, but the spirit of the pattern definitely in evidence.

http://www.trade2win.com/traderpedia/Adam_and_Eve

Also this morning contrarian delight of put/call ratio at 0.6 and a nasty looking size / minnow delta divergence developing till 17:00ish, a possible warning of what was in store. Light blue line shows aggressive selling while yellow line shows little bottom pickers (?) buying ... all unproven conjecture I know (the market will not be confined by mere ratios) but this sort of divergence often works & shows who is up to what in terms of size. About 50% of the time LOL.

Put/call heading up to 1.0 as I type and size seems to be easing their selling. So, 12474 LOD? Or another 40 points down? ... heh heh. Double bottom on cash and good place for support on 240m at the mo, for what it's worth. Done trading for the day but would probably long 350 cash if she got there. Happy Xmas all.

 

[hobby]

Good Lord a textbook chart pattern actually worked. Don't mess with an Adam and Eve top Especially if it comes after a double top at same resistance level.

Ok not as pronounced as this one, but the spirit of the pattern definitely in evidence.

http://www.trade2win.com/traderpedia/Adam_and_Eve

Also this morning contrarian delight of put/call ratio at 0.6 and a nasty looking size / minnow delta divergence developed till 16:30ish. Light blue line shows aggressive selling. Yellow line little bottom pickers (?) ... all unproven conjecture I know (the market will not be confined by mere ratios) but this sort of divergence often works & shows who is up to what in terms of size. Aboy 50% of the time LOL.

Put/call heading up to 1.0 as I type and size seems to be easing their selling. 12474 LOD? Or another 40 points down ... heh heh. Double bottom on cash and good place for support on 240m for what it's worth.

I can't fit all that info/data into my tiny brain, so I just used common sense and shorted the @rse outta it @12451 ! :cheesy:

 

[andycan]

Good Lord a textbook chart pattern actually worked. Don't mess with an Adam and Eve top Especially if it comes after a double top at same resistance level.

Ok not as pronounced as this one, but the spirit of the pattern definitely in evidence.

http://www.trade2win.com/traderpedia/Adam_and_Eve

Also this morning contrarian delight of put/call ratio at 0.6 and a nasty looking size / minnow delta divergence developing till 17:00ish, a possible warning of what was in store. Light blue line shows aggressive selling while yellow line shows little bottom pickers (?) buying ... all unproven conjecture I know (the market will not be confined by mere ratios) but this sort of divergence often works & shows who is up to what in terms of size. About 50% of the time LOL.

Put/call heading up to 1.0 as I type and size seems to be easing their selling. So, 12474 LOD? Or another 40 points down? ... heh heh. Double bottom on cash and good place for support on 240m at the mo, for what it's worth. Done trading for the day but would probably long 350 cash if she got there. Happy Xmas all.

frugi
markets have habits
habits are like blue prints when you know them you know what is going to happen

 

[frugi]

Hobby,

Don't worry I just use this stuff to make myself look sophisticated and provide an excuse for building yet more pointless worksheets. :cheesy: At the end of the day, delta is just another indicator and a so-called 'divergence' or 'size being aggressive' could have a completely different result every day. Still, I think it's worth observing a few of them to see if anything reasonably consistent comes to light. Another small arrow in the quiver with price being the mighty longbow, as it were.

Andy,

Indeed they do and bless 'em for it.

 

[dc2000]

Hi Mark havnt used that one for a while but thanks for the thought

Im done for the year so all that remains is to wish all a Happy Christmas and a happy new year

ps: still not a bear yet, there is an oustanding target to hit maybe santa will help 12373 to 12521and thats a fact Jack

 

[Silvertip]

May I also wish the contributers of the thread the warmest of wishes for this festive period, may December 25th be the catalyst for the arrival of warmer days once again.

Todays Dow, I still dont see any reason to be shorting this market as it appears to me as though we are seeing the longs being shaken out of the next move forward. We have dipped a few times so far, but nothing more than that. I will remain bullish until such point I have obtained a signal to the contrary.

 

[andycan]

May I also wish the contributers of the thread the warmest of wishes for this festive period, may December 25th be the catalyst for the arrival of warmer days once again.

Todays Dow, I still dont see any reason to be shorting this market as it appears to me as though we are seeing the longs being shaken out of the next move forward. We have dipped a few times so far, but nothing more than that. I will remain bullish until such point I have obtained a signal to the contrary.

a bit more down and then more up i want to see the 1455 cash
merry xmas to all

 

[Atilla]

I think the DOW30 has taken a turn and whilst I wouldn't be too concerned at the moment if I was still long, I'd watch for a break of the 12350-30 regions, just in case. This point also coincides with the 20d MA. I'd put my stops there if I was long.

If it falls further and breaches 12300 the 40d MA then I think alarm bells should be ringing.

There's a divergence in the MACD & Price movement for the daily charts. I can't see a pickup with the holidays kicking in.



On the S&P500, if we don't brake out of 1422-5 (double top) I think the sell off for the S&P500 may end at 1406 regions tomorrow. Once again due to the holidays I'd guess.

The MACD for the weekly S&P500 charts are showing pretty over extended prices to me. What better time to take profits than over xmas holidays.

 

[andycan]

I think the DOW30 has taken a turn and whilst I wouldn't be too concerned at the moment if I was still long, I'd watch for a break of the 12350-30 regions, just in case. This point also coincides with the 20d MA. I'd put my stops there if I was long.

If it falls further and breaches 12300 the 40d MA then I think alarm bells should be ringing.

There's a divergence in the MACD & Price movement for the daily charts. I can't see a pickup with the holidays kicking in.



On the S&P500, if we don't brake out of 1422-5 (double top) I think the sell off for the S&P500 may end at 1406 regions tomorrow. Once again due to the holidays I'd guess.

The MACD for the weekly S&P500 charts are showing pretty over extended prices to me. What better time to take profits than over xmas holidays.

thats the problem with indicators they can be overbought longer than most anticipate

 

[Atilla]

thats the problem with indicators they can be overbought longer than most anticipate

Yes true, but the indicators are only backup to the actual price movement. The divergence has been there for about couple of weeks.

My guiding principal is the price and the MA20. From about 2pm onwards it headed down south. When the hourly MA 5 & 10 started crossing each other likewise, the combination of signals was too strong to ignore. Key ingredient I think was Patience.

I'm still cautious about a rebound but unless the MA20 is crossed on the hourly charts I'll consider the downtrend to continue.

Can anybody else see a double top reversal on the S&P500 hourly charts :?:

If confirmed - dare I say this is going to be a sure bet to 1405-10 regions.

 

[kriesau]

What's in store for 2007 ?

The continuation of the Goldilocks economy
Michael Nystrom: December 21 2006

For Corporate America, times could not be better. From BusinessWeek

"The fourth quarter could mark the 19th consecutive quarter of double-digit profit gains among companies in the S&P 500. As a percentage of GDP, those profits are at a 40-year high. What's more, cash flow at S&P 500 companies is the largest in two decades. Bullish investors, expecting more of the same in 2007, have bid up stocks: The S&P 500 gained 12.9% in 2006 (through December 8), and the Nasdaq has added 10.5%, while the Dow has tacked on 14.8%. Meanwhile, stock market volatility has plunged to a 12-year low, indicating that investor sanguinity has reached historic proportions."

Everybody knows that this will continue right on through 2007. Just take a look at the cover of Barron's. Its 2007 Investment issue depicts a subservient bear, dutifully brushing the suit jacket of a dapper bull while delivering his watch and cufflinks on a golden platter. The teaser quote says it all: "Nine top Wall Street strategists see more gains ahead for stocks, no recession, cooling inflation and tame interest rates."

Bloomberg also surveyed strategists at 12 of Wall Streets biggest firms and it was unanimous. Every one of them is bullish. For Wall Street strategists, who earned a record $24 billion in bonuses this year (an average of $137,600 per head), 2007 looks to be developing as the best of all possible worlds.

But Byron Wien in Business Week is less concerned with what everybody knows and more concerned with what nobody knows: "There is too much complacency and that makes me apprehensive. The problem is that nobody is concerned about terrorism, our failure in Iraq, that housing will turn out worse, or that the trade deficit is inexorable and that therefore the dollar is doomed in the long run." These are good points that I didn't see mentioned elsewhere in my survey of what everyone knows. It is almost as if such subjects were taboo. So with this concern for what nobody knows or is concerned about, what is Mr. Wien's forecast for the stock market in 2007? "Up five to ten percent."

Such is the mood on Wall Street these days. Everybody on Wall Street knows 2007 is going to be a banner year and everyone who is reading about Wall Street in the mainstream media knows the same thing. So don't worry - be happy! As for my prediction about 2007, let me quote Mark Twain, via Al Gore's movie and book movie An Inconvenient Truth, "It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so."

 

[andycan]

Yes true, but the indicators are only backup to the actual price movement. The divergence has been there for about couple of weeks.

My guiding principal is the price and the MA20. From about 2pm onwards it headed down south. When the hourly MA 5 & 10 started crossing each other likewise, the combination of signals was too strong to ignore. Key ingredient I think was Patience.

I'm still cautious about a rebound but unless the MA20 is crossed on the hourly charts I'll consider the downtrend to continue.

Can anybody else see a double top reversal on the S&P500 hourly charts :?:

If confirmed - dare I say this is going to be a sure bet to 1405-10 regions.

this may well be the case Atilla
but we have to consider a few points here that makes things a little tougher than usual
the big boyz are on holiday the smart money is sidelined and the market is thin
which means it can do what it wants out of the norm
so with that thought i will trade the obvious trades and leave the rest

 

[andycan]

a bit more down and then more up i want to see the 1455 cash
merry xmas to all

nice when a plan comes together!!
note this resembles the gartley pattern, i was not thinking of this at the time but the 1:1 is in this case the minimum requirement not always thoughi would have liked a little more down

 

[Atilla]

nice when a plan comes together!!
note this resembles the gartley pattern, i was not thinking of this at the time but the 1:1 is in this case the minimum requirement not always thoughi would have liked a little more down

Hi Andycan,

What is this TA with the triangles called? I've looked up triangles but my books only refer to ascending / descending and wedge type triangles?

Otherwise it's been another reasonable day for me. Wondering weather my 1406 target will be reached. I'm now considering wheather/when to close my position.

I can't help feeling though the market has held up well and do agree not much movement at the moment. Hence, I suspect a surge will follow after these falls as you suggest.

Also, noticed Microsoft MSFT looks like having produced a H&S formation. As the Nasdaq did not accompany the last DOW rise I've taken it as a signal to short it expecting the worst.

Microsoft also announced they will not be releasing another Operating System for sometime but choosing to carry out upgrades or patches. The IT industry can only bear so much. Other than fancy interface and some additional security (which people can buy for £20 anyway) there isn't much in Vista. Only benefit is it keeps people like me off the streets I suppose. Can't see where they are going next year. Fancy selling XBox at a loss with PS3 and Wii hitting the shops too.

 

[andycan]

Hi Andycan,

What is this TA with the triangles called? I've looked up triangles but my books only refer to ascending / descending and wedge type triangles?

Otherwise it's been another reasonable day for me. Wondering weather my 1406 target will be reached. I'm now considering wheather/when to close my position.

I can't help feeling though the market has held up well and do agree not much movement at the moment. Hence, I suspect a surge will follow after these falls as you suggest.

Also, noticed Microsoft MSFT looks like having produced a H&S formation. As the Nasdaq did not accompany the last DOW rise I've taken it as a signal to short it expecting the worst.


Microsoft also announced they will not be releasing another Operating System for sometime but choosing to carry out upgrades or patches. The IT industry can only bear so much. Other than fancy interface and some additional security (which people can buy for £20 anyway) there isn't much in Vista. Only benefit is it keeps people like me off the streets I suppose. Can't see where they are going next year. Fancy selling XBox at a loss with PS3 and Wii hitting the shops too.

Atilla

there are not triangles my rt software has an automatic pattern finder, but i use it to see the price length retracement and extension
i left them on there so that anyone can see that the A leg and the C leg are more or less the same, ideally i want lower but i always aim for the minimum. once its there then i either pull out totally or leave some on the table either way its a win win situation i also been trading the collapse of US bonds today that was pretty obvious trade
had a quick peek at microsoft the monthly looks like it could start to have some consolidation maybe a sideways move for a while the 31 area look attractive dont really trade it so im not too fussed what it does
xbox 360 is awesome the graphics are great especially gear of war been trying to get nintendo Wii should be called Piis becasue its definately taking the..... just kind find it anywhere