Dow 2006

[andycan]

I've read somewhere that comedy is when somebody dies drowning in a sewer, whilst tragedy is when you break a finger. In the same vein, I felt sorry before for people who got broke, but the feeling I got now is not something I would wish to go through ever again. And it's been caused by three things: the absence of a clear trading plan; adding to losing positions; and lack of discipline.

I suppose lack of discipline is the main cause, I know what I need to do but I don't do it. Why? Maybe I am not as clever as I thought I was and I am not cut out to be a trader. This is a very ruthless environment in which one cannot afford too many mistakes.

welcome to our world of trading
but without rubbing salt to your wounds the only one who is being ruthless is you
you are not giving yourself a fair chance you know what needs doing but you cant, you wont, you cant be bothered i dont know, only you do
could it be that maybe if you put in bloody hard work you could be successfull does that scare you? maybe? you would be surprised how many people sabbotage their efforts to suceed i can see it on these threads all the time.
you dont need intellect to trade and do well but you do need to be smart and adding to losing trades is not smart at this stage in your development there are stratergies for one to add to positions even when still losing but thats another story
discipline comes easier when you have a plan
i suggest with all the good intentions its meant, take a break you are burned out dont think of trading (buying and selling) dont look at a screen for 2 weeks
but whilst you are off think what is it you want out of trading and try and implement a plan based on your understanding of the markets
and take 1 step at a time

 

[mark twain uk]

I am posting my thoughts here mostly for the benefit of novice traders, I really don't need a shoulder to cry on, I am most philosophical about things, what needs to happen will happen. One way or the other I will close all my positions tonight or tomorrow and take a break until the new year or until there are clear signs of a market turn.

 

[Silvertip]

Mark with all due respect, seven years is a long time to have survived without a clear trading plan or self discipline. I'm very suprised you have traded that long only to arrive at the situation you have today... However the only way you can turn your situation around is by facing hard facts,and searching for empathy is merely allowing yourself to dwell upon past mistakes which does absolutely nothing about correcting your current success rate. Your the only person that matters here, not me nor any other person on the T2W board.

 

[adski1981]

I'm sure the self discipline will come back Mark, and as you've said, you've been in the game for over 7 years! Myself on the other hand have been trading for 3 years and already considering visiting the austin healy/shane warne hair regeneration companies!!

 

[mark twain uk]

I take back the trading plan, I do have one but I don't always follow it, so it's down to two, adding to losing positions and lack of discipline, and in fact it's only the latter, I know I shouldn't add to losing positions.

 

[adski1981]

double trouble! Eradicate those and you'll be back to winning ways.....completely agree with all previous advice but would suggest with christmas and new year coming up to take a break, and take things on in 2007 with a fresh and newly focused approach....

 

[Silvertip]

Implicit within the concept of a trading plan is the diligence to retain a strict obligation to follow the rules of the plan, without this obligation you dont have a plan, you may think you do, but you dont. A trading plan can only be defined at such point it is proven to be returning regular profit, therefore the question must be asked of yourself, why do you feel the need to deviate from the rules of this trading plan?

 

[adski1981]

and the general rules of trading........without trying to sound too condescending

 

[kriesau]

Mark - at what entry point (and on what contracts) did you first open your original Dow short(s) and at what points did you add to it/them. Lets see if some constructive advice can be provided by other here to try and help you extricate yourself from your current predicament at a lower cost.

 

[mark twain uk]

I really appreciate the offers for support and advice, but now it's not a good time, there will be time for this at a later stage.

 

[Silvertip]

You may consider me to be a "meanie" however I ask the questions that need to be asked. I got involved within trading and lost money, I didnt define myself as a trader, I defined myself as a loser. I left trading/losing having defined myself as a loser to get on with my life taking up a "regular job" once again. It was only after some uncanny coincidences that I became involved within trading once again, and with quite a lot of mental insecurity as to whether or not I was making the right choice, however I had retained awareness of all my previous mistakes and set about the task again...

 

[Pat494]

Talking about losses. I got an email to invest in the super new company OCT.L. So OK bought first thing today but so far it has lost £9,000+. Lucky its only the share competition !! PHEW somebody ramping rubbish companies !!!!!!!!!!

 

[adski1981]

Very honest and forthright, and that's what it takes to succeed in this game....i've only been trading 3 years and have been very close to closing down the shutters and moving in a completely different direction but it takes nerves of steel and bals the size of oranges to make it in this business, especially if you're out on your own.....stick to the plan and the rules and hard work will pay off in the end...trust me!!

 

[adski1981]

Boiler room stocks are a disgrace to this market

 

[Silvertip]

450 could be a tough cookie to crumble now.

 

[mark twain uk]

I got lucky and will live to trade another day, I closed all my shorts for a small profit, I did slightly better than B/E, there could be more downside from here but I will take a break nevertheless, I need some time off to clear my mind.

 

[adski1981]

I trade the bund intraday, any thoughts where this sell off stops??

 

[Atilla]

I take back the trading plan, I do have one but I don't always follow it, so it's down to two, adding to losing positions and lack of discipline, and in fact it's only the latter, I know I shouldn't add to losing positions.

Mark, I can relate to your position as I feel I have been there. My first year was the worst where 75 % of my losses took place. Anyhow, what I came out with was the following...

1. Instead of adding to losing positions, why no cut yours by 50%.

eg. More recently I thought there'd be a turn down at 1400 for the S&P500 and when it touched 1405 I closed half my posiitons and I considered if it went beyond 1410 then the bulls have won the battle and closed the remainder.

This has now become engrained such that I immediately close 50% of a position if the move doesn't go as I "forecast". This eases pressure allows a re-evaluation of the markets and you can always re-enter the trend.

2. Similarly, holding losing positions longer than winning ones is another trader sickness. Why not close 50% of your position on a winning trade when your target has been reached and stay an extra hour or day what ever your preferred trading time frame to see what else is left on the run.

I picked these up from a book called "High Probability Trading" by Marcel Link. Who said in his book the successful traders are those who concentrate on not losing money. Trying not to lose money makes you more concerned about preventing losses and so leads to making money.

In all honesty this change in mind set has helped me substantially in cutting my losses and improving my trades.

It may be worth a try to you or anybody else out there.

PS Having said all that I think the S&P500 is out to touch 1450 or something soon before turning.

 

[catracho]

Dow current chart..

Will they or won't they? (push higher than the trend line) before next major correction

 

[Silvertip]

Another shakeout underway today, all the weak longs will be closing here. My biggest concern at this time is if the thread is going to hit 360 pages right on the nose by 31st December? 27 pages to go with 13 days remaining, ya never know !