Dow 2006

[andycan]

Yes Dow breaking out..but this may be wave 5 of wave 5..so be careful when it finishes....

it is wave 5 of wave 5
the problem is that w5 can extend

 

[karmit]

Yes Dow breaking out..but this may be wave 5 of wave 5..so be careful when it finishes....

Citigroup has just raised DOW 2007 year end target to 14000 - based solely
on "earnings increase" in 2007.

Have carefully saved the article and set myself a reminder for 01 Dec 2007
to review it.

 

[Silvertip]

Brave as a gladiator karmit... I'd like to do the same but my money management policy refuses to allow me. I'll wait to gather it all back on the flip-side, short cover has reaped rewards too.

 

[karmit]

Brave as a gladiator karmit... I'd like to do the same but my money management policy refuses to allow me. I'll wait to gather it all back on the flip-side, short cover has reaped rewards too.

well.. I'm not in a hurry.. I will wait for it to come down to 12358 and thats it!

on the other hand I might get stopped out at 12412... lets see.

 

[andycan]

an ABC 1:1
note the C leg has 5 waves which means the move up should be limited
therefore a correction is due if its to go up further
also on the 60 A=88bars and C= 84
so we are close to price and time squaring

 

[mark twain uk]

I closed my shorts on tuesday night before the FOMC minutes (smart move), re-opened short positions today (a bit too early) and added to them after it topped (not so smart, never add to losing positions), now interesting to see if it makes a new push higher into the close or we'll see a reversal.

 

[mark twain uk]

an ABC 1:1
note the C leg has 5 waves which means the move up should be limited
therefore a correction is due if its to go up further
also on the 60 A=88bars and C= 84
so we are close to price and time squaring

I too noticed the ABC 1:1 move, that's why I went short, any upside should be limited, however, we could still have a santas' rally trying to close the year on a high.

 

[andycan]

I too noticed the ABC 1:1 move, that's why I went short, any upside should be limited, however, we could still have a santas' rally trying to close the year on a high.

i do agree hence why im just scalping

 

[mark twain uk]

The GLR (Great Linear Rise) continues unabashed, I believe that the GLR of 2006 would become text book material for the next generation, on the SPX we are now exactly 2000 pips up since July without any meaningyful correction, am I right in saying that this is quite unprecedented?

 

[Silvertip]

AB=CD SP500 Daily, just in.

1424.09

 

[andycan]

The GLR (Great Linear Rise) continues unabashed, I believe that the GLR of 2006 would become text book material for the next generation, on the SPX we are now exactly 2000 pips up since July without any meaningyful correction, am I right in saying that this is quite unprecedented?

it cetainly has expanded more than most thought which leads me to believe that the end is near
at least for a good while
as with most parabolic moves it eventually gives it all back and some at least from the july low

 

[mark twain uk]

as with most parabolic moves it eventually gives it all back and some at least from the july low

Of that I have no doubt, once the rally is over the pull back would be spectacular. One way or the other, I too believe that the July lows will be tested at some point.

I just finished reading the Great Crash of 1929 by K. Galbraith, then, as now, the stocks went up, and up, and up, and more and more people went long using leveraged positions, and when people started to sell there were no buyers and the gains of two years were given back in few weeks as margin calls went unanswered and positions were liquidated by brokers at whatever price they could get.

Nevertheless, today is a scalping day, if we get a pull back I would close most of my shorts and just keep a token one for tomorrow, just in case, but at the moment instead of a pull back it looks more like another rally is being cooked, so I may just get stopped out.

 

[andycan]

Of that I have no doubt, once the rally is over the pull back would be spectacular. One way or the other, I too believe that the July lows will be tested at some point.

I just finished reading the Great Crash of 1929 by K. Galbraith, then, as now, the stocks went up, and up, and up, and more and more people went long using leveraged positions, and when people started to sell there were no buyers and the gains of two years were given back in few weeks as margin calls went unaswered and positions were liquidated by brokers at whatever price they could get.

Nevertheless, today is a scalping day, if we get a pull back I would close most of my shorts and just keep a token one for tomorrow, just in case, but at the moment instead of a pull back it looks more like another rally is being cooked, so I may just get stopped out.

indeed dont you just love hype!
its clearly pros selling to the public as they get out the poor buggers get in
because of that rational goes out of the window which means to the technical trader its pretty tough to measure a high therefore
this kind of scenario means its unlikely we have a 'V' top but more a topping action which means more time a wasting
but we shall see its always wise to have a road map at least one can factor in various tradeable scenarios
as i write new highs with an inverted bear flag i would not be surprised that failed too

 

[mark twain uk]

It looks like the bears are capitulating and we'll see a blow up, it could be another 200 points up day, I am close to being stopped out now

 

[Atilla]

It looks like the bears are capitulating and we'll see a blow up, it could be another 200 points up day, I am close to being stopped out now

This was my take on the S&P500 on the 25th Nov. :?:

On a simple view I think the markets gone ape pooh.

The bad housing figures and slowing manufacturing has been overturned by some couple of good results and high CPI numbers. Inexplicable.

On 24th November I thought 1425 maybe but now I'm thinking perhaps 1450 is reality before end of year. :-0

 

[chump]

Your chart Question "What was the reason for this breakout" ...answer ..shorts got blown out of position.

 

[mark twain uk]

The Dax has gone parabolic too, it's up 370 points since 1st December, the Dax is well correlated to the US indices and it shows no sign of slowing down

 

[2468steve]

Your chart Question "What was the reason for this breakout" ...answer ..shorts got blown out of position.

The NY Fed also released "by accident"......yeah right !!....tomorrows Empire State manufacturing numbers tonight instead.They were poor,but not as poor as expected .....err OK...

 

[andycan]

This was my take on the S&P500 on the 25th Nov. :?:

On a simple view I think the markets gone ape pooh.

The bad housing figures and slowing manufacturing has been overturned by some couple of good results and high CPI numbers. Inexplicable.

On 24th November I thought 1425 maybe but now I'm thinking perhaps 1450 is reality before end of year. :-0

i was looking at 1455 cash but 22nd nov timing
i obviously got my cycles screwed up
but never mind i would agree with your opinion there

 

[Atilla]

Your chart Question "What was the reason for this breakout" ...answer ..shorts got blown out of position.

Mine were at 1405 & 1410 50/50.

I've shorted again at 1425.7. I'm expecting some kind of retracement. However, I'm edgy.

If it goes past 1430 I'm out until 1450.

I really don't fancy going long.

Passed 1450 I'll have to eat my economics and kick my trading books into touch.