andycan said:
well yes i covered at todays low made 4.5points
but had to go out and im short again here at 1407 on a quater position
so irrespective today i will remain in profit even if it goes against me
but look at the 60 3 drives to a high and a test of the high you have to have a crack as i said im covered
Last week we were around the 12300+ levels. This week it looks to me like the DOW is strugling to brake out of 12250. I think tomorrow's close will be a tell sign. Based on data charts and what I had for lunch I'd guess a downward move to 12180 is on the cards or perhaps lower.
I'm anticipating a H&S reversal over the December month with a full drop to 11900 levels next month or in January.
Unless tomorrow the DOW does rise to 12300 levels, I'm still not convinced of the recovery.
Moreover, since last week I feel we have had more bad news...
1. £1=$1.97+ today.
2. More conflicting news as to whether the markets are slowing or not and if there are inflationary pressures - more uncertainty
3. Will the Fed raise or lower rates - more uncertainty
4. Soft or hard landing - more uncertainty
5. Gold is rising - (sign of uncertain times - falling dollar - Chineese switching assets)
6. Conflicting signs in retail sector. Walmart figures down. Analysts say Walmart has problems and this doesn't reflect the retail industry - more uncertainty (In my view yeah right! The biggest flag ship in the US shopping market and it's down to bad management instead of consumers not parting with their cash).
Everybody is hell bent on cooking figures. I have a theory this is all out economic warfare... The Fed knows it has a BoP defecit approaching 7%. It can't raise rates as housing & retail market slowing down. Can't drop rates as inflationary pressures and falling dollar rules it out. Too many $ollars out there especially in the Chineese hands. I strongly suspect it is the Fed's policy to sink the $ and crank up the pressure to see if other countries central banks will support the dollar or not. Either way someones going to pay for the defecit. I suspect Fed may drop rates to spite the market and sink the value of all countries who hold dollars. It's like a poker game and they are bluffing... or are they? More uncertainty!
Big stakes. If Fed reduces rates and sinks $ then it will lose confidence and probably lose it's credibility for once and for all. Gold will go past $1000 and meltdown in financial markets will occur. Nightmare scenario but I can't see where else the $ can go...?
I'd pencil 400+ pts drop very soon within 6 weeks.
