Dow 2006

[karmit]

Looking for a 30 point move on the DOW soon....

(down of course)

NB: If OIL behaves...

 

[dc2000]

and short on Dax at 6,400 cash , anybody else thinking what I'm thinking?

I was thinking of relaxing on a nice tropical island


and to pay for it a nice FTSE and Dax short in the morning

 

[Hook Shot]

He's a good lad Tom ...
His theory may also fit my emerging view that the next few days could be blockbuster..... for the bulls.
It just has that feel about it .....and very close to highs...

 

[tricks]

Why fight the trend?

Hi Baruch,

Good point.
However, a trend is only a trend when it is intact, and is it not right to say, that we are all looking for the 'top' and the reversal? Then the 'trend' changes direction and you're not fighting it, you are going with it! Interesting 'game', this trading.
I was running a £2k loss earlier in the year for about 2 weeks on the Dow and then when it came back in my favour (I was short £20 pt and over trading), I was so relieved that I closed the trade with something like £200 profit. The index then continued to fall near to a 1000 pts ( we all know when that was). I was not a happy bunny coming out of that trade too early!!!!!!!!!! Would have made £20k if I had stayed in, but because of running the loss for a couple of weeks ( and hurting), I obviously forgot why I had entered the trade initially.

Fear had taken it's toll, and we as traders, know all too well about 'fear and greed'!

That is a fairly good example of a trend reversal that I missed! Would you not agree?

cheers - Tricks

P.S. I wish I could find that place where they sell 'hindsight'. Ha ha.

P.P.S. Here's hoping for the trend reversal!

 

[Baruch]

Baruch,

I've been following your trades on cable for a while, have you actually tried to trade big ben on the dow?

Yes, but only a few times, because I am a forex trader. But when nothing happens on the forex front, it's nice to take a look on the indexes.

 

[dc2000]

why you lookin at catalogue shops?

 

[mark twain uk]

why you lookin at catalogue shops?

Some of them have nice underwear sections :cheesy: it's easy to lose your shirt there

 

[Baruch]

Hi Baruch,

Good point.
However, a trend is only a trend when it is intact, and is it not right to say, that we are all looking for the 'top' and the reversal? Then the 'trend' changes direction and you're not fighting it, you are going with it! Interesting 'game', this trading.
I was running a £2k loss earlier in the year for about 2 weeks on the Dow and then when it came back in my favour (I was short £20 pt and over trading), I was so relieved that I closed the trade with something like £200 profit. The index then continued to fall near to a 1000 pts ( we all know when that was). I was not a happy bunny coming out of that trade too early!!!!!!!!!! Would have made £20k if I had stayed in, but because of running the loss for a couple of weeks ( and hurting), I obviously forgot why I had entered the trade initially.

Fear had taken it's toll, and we as traders, know all too well about 'fear and greed'!

That is a fairly good example of a trend reversal that I missed! Would you not agree?

cheers - Tricks

P.S. I wish I could find that place where they sell 'hindsight'. Ha ha.

P.P.S. Here's hoping for the trend reversal!

Well..I think that as long we remember that the trend is our friend, not so much can go wrong. As George Soros once said to his traders: "If you don't know of other things to do, just follow the trend".

 

[mark twain uk]

Well..I think that as long we remember that the trend is our friend, not so much can go wrong. As George Soros once said to his traders: "If you don't know of other things to do, just follow the trend".

But our egos tell us that we know best and the greed kicks in and we try to guess the top thinking that we'll make a killing if we are right.

 

[tricks]

Well..I think that as long we remember that the trend is our friend, not so much can go wrong. As George Soros once said to his traders: "If you don't know of other things to do, just follow the trend".

I still stand by my point that trends reverse and none of us know exactly when that is going to happen (apart from trying to call the tops etc etc). If we did, we would all be 'millionaires'. After all, aren't we all looking for the example that I gave in my prevoius post? If you catch the trend reversal, you are home and dry. Knowing when to close the trade is all consuming!

Fear and Greed, I rest my case.

Tricks

 

[tricks]

But our egos tell us that we know best and the greed kicks in and we try to guess the top thinking that we'll make a killing if we are right.

Exactly!

We are all trying to guess, all the time. And if you do call the top, you have a trend reversal in place.

Tricks

 

[kriesau]

I still stand by my point that trends reverse and none of us know exactly when that is going to happen (apart from trying to call the tops etc etc). If we did, we would all be 'millionaires'. After all, aren't we all looking for the example that I gave in my prevoius post? If you catch the trend reversal, you are home and dry. Knowing when to close the trade is all consuming!

Fear and Greed, I rest my case.

Tricks

Perfectly fair point !

 

[tricks]

Perfectly fair point !

Thanks Kriesau,

Where do you think it's going from here? Just out of interest ! Or are you keeping your powder dry?

Tricks

P.S. By the way, it's a very tough one to call at the moment. As it usually is ! Tight stops in, however.

 

[mark twain uk]

It looks like the PPT brigade is gaining the upper hand.

Argh, where are the days of the 100+ point sell-offs in the last hour? Will we ever see them again?

 

[kriesau]

Thanks Kriesau, Where do you think it's going from here? Just out of interest ! Or are you keeping your powder dry? Tricks

Well I try to interpret technical indicators rather than use subjective judgement but of course we all do 'think' about potential direction. I 'think' that it is overdue a correction but, as always, the $64K questions are when and how far !

I was stopped out of last weeks NDX short earlier today and, being a sucker for punishment, I went short again at 1773. So far I have held back from the Dow & SPX primarily because of the current oil price in the absence of any other significant economic data.

I have standing Dec short orders in place on the Dow and SPX below 12085 and 1355 respectively but I'm still looking for higher short entry prices on both indices on a more speculative basis. I don't really think that today looks very promising unless there is a sell off in the last hour, which does not look likely at the moment.

Lets see what tomorrow brings with major retailers Home Depot, Walmart, Staples & Target all reporting.

 

[dc2000]

Argh, where are the days of the 100+ point sell-offs in the last hour? Will we ever see them again?

projecting forward the 250+ days are coming but Im talking some months yet

ps will answer PM once I have the numbers mark

 

[mark twain uk]

futures carried on being sold after the close, wonder if this is a sign of what tomorrow will bring

 

[vocalist]

futures carried on being sold after the close, wonder if this is a sign of what tomorrow will bring

Probably a bit of profit taking at the very end of the day.

 

[karmit]

Does anyone know where can "dividend payment" be verified for a short position on DOW Rolling?

Is there any website where we can find the list of dividend paid for the day for the DOW components?

Just wondering the maths involved...

 

[Hook Shot]

Going back into history what about the 250pt reversals ........... topped of with Maria Bartiromo in the last hour.................. she looked a lot better then but then so did I - probably.......