mark twain uk
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Strong action on the dow futures after the close, and is still going up.
Now comes the painful bit, not only did I close my dow long too early, but I went short just after 8:30 at 11,960 cash. It's gone up 25 points since. DOH! Shall I close now, shall I wait until the morning, decision, decision...
Now comes the painful bit, not only did I close my dow long too early, but I went short just after 8:30 at 11,960 cash. It's gone up 25 points since. DOH! Shall I close now, shall I wait until the morning, decision, decision...
roguetrader
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IBM, INTC and YHOO out after the close with earnings.lookin fiesty, see what happens when the dust settles
Inflation Report Shocks the Market
Bob Carver # 10/18/06
Stocks and bonds encountered stiff headwinds Tuesday as the PPI suggested that underlying, or "core", inflation is still a problem which may cause the Fed to raise short term rates once again in the near future. While stocks sold off initially on the news, buyers were quick to come back in to scoop up relative "bargains". The bond market recovered to close virtually unchanged. However, there's more news where that came from.
The government reports on Consumer Prices at 8:30am Wednesday (EST). That report may be more pivotal in setting direction in the bond market than the PPI was. If the bond market's reaction to the news is poor, this will not only mean higher interest rates (lower bond prices) ahead, it will be very bad news for the housing sector, which has been thrown a life preserver by the bond market in lowering long term rates in recent months. If the bond market raises rates, the housing sector is likely to pull the entire economy down into recession next year. In fact, the yield curve inversion has continued long enough for us to say that there is now a greater than 50% chance that the economy will be entering at least a mild recession next year. Higher short term rates from the Fed and higher long term rates from the bond market would make such a recession longer in time and deeper in depth, doing much more damage to the economy.
The stock market has built a "Wall of Hope" around it. That wall is built with bricks made of expectations that the economy will slow just enough to bring inflation under control while staying above the zero growth line that marks recession territory. That is quite a stretch and it just goes to show how hope can triumph over rationality at significant turning points.
Bob Carver # 10/18/06
Stocks and bonds encountered stiff headwinds Tuesday as the PPI suggested that underlying, or "core", inflation is still a problem which may cause the Fed to raise short term rates once again in the near future. While stocks sold off initially on the news, buyers were quick to come back in to scoop up relative "bargains". The bond market recovered to close virtually unchanged. However, there's more news where that came from.
The government reports on Consumer Prices at 8:30am Wednesday (EST). That report may be more pivotal in setting direction in the bond market than the PPI was. If the bond market's reaction to the news is poor, this will not only mean higher interest rates (lower bond prices) ahead, it will be very bad news for the housing sector, which has been thrown a life preserver by the bond market in lowering long term rates in recent months. If the bond market raises rates, the housing sector is likely to pull the entire economy down into recession next year. In fact, the yield curve inversion has continued long enough for us to say that there is now a greater than 50% chance that the economy will be entering at least a mild recession next year. Higher short term rates from the Fed and higher long term rates from the bond market would make such a recession longer in time and deeper in depth, doing much more damage to the economy.
The stock market has built a "Wall of Hope" around it. That wall is built with bricks made of expectations that the economy will slow just enough to bring inflation under control while staying above the zero growth line that marks recession territory. That is quite a stretch and it just goes to show how hope can triumph over rationality at significant turning points.
mark twain uk
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"it just goes to show how hope can triumph over rationality at significant turning points."
dc2000
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mrng chaps Im still looking for the 998, I guess it looks a bit more doable than when I posted yesterday, my preference is for an early bounce off 932 without hiting target first this is only because the alternate is a double fall of 120 today and 100 tomorrow
mark twain uk
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hear, hear!
I decided to let my yesterday short open and will look to either close it on a drop'n'bounce or add to it on a top
(edited) DOH!
I decided to let my yesterday short open and will look to either close it on a drop'n'bounce or add to it on a top
(edited) DOH!
Last edited:
mark twain uk
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Are they gunning for 12,100 or 12,200 into expiry?
Anyway, I added to my short at 12,038 cash
Anyway, I added to my short at 12,038 cash
mark twain uk
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I am going against the trend and I feel uneasy, it all started yesterday when I closed my long too early and then I opened a short too early, if it pushes beyond 12,100 I may decide to close at a loss
mark twain uk
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Pat, if I knew better I would not sit on a losing position. I am short, I am squeezed and I am (a bit) uneasy, but that's the life of a trader.
Nice talking to you again, that old avatar of yours is imprinted in my memory
Nice talking to you again, that old avatar of yours is imprinted in my memory
mark twain uk
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out now with a little but most welcome profit, waiting to see what happens next
