Dow 2006

[mark twain uk]

My universal translator struggles with this:

"the happy face target of Charlie is just under my outer level and that would be ideal mid sesh today"

 

[dc2000]

happy face target of charlie miller is 12100 as posted by Kriesau earlier my outer level or mental stop level I PM'd you yesterday the absolute on the money target for mid sesh is 12091.72 give or take 0.363

 

[kriesau]

Back from the pub and back in on the short side on all 4 (that's a nice turn of phrase) dow, spx, ftse and dax. Nothing too big, but just in case we get a nasty turn before the options expiry are out of the way."

Where were your short entry points on the above indices ?

I'm still on the sidelines here since I would like to see the Dow top 12050 and then fall back below 12000 again before activating a short.

 

[mark twain uk]

Where were your short entry points on the above indices ?

I'm still on the sidelines here since I would like to see the Dow top 12050 and then fall back below 12000 again before activating a short.

I got in at about 8:30 last night and closed all of them this morning for a tiny profit when the markets turned, I suppose the fight is not over, the buyers have lifted the indices again, it's the big boys and their options that matter most in the next 48 hours, not the fundamentals.

I have kept a token short on both dow and sp and I will add to that short on any rally that fizzles before my stop loss above 12100

 

[roguetrader]

Dow and S&P have done extraordinarily well so far, but I think the time has come for the Nasdaq to cast its vote. Currently sitting just below the April highs of 2375 (compq) there's a little more room if you favour the NDX as your guide. The SOX is currently loitering around the 50% retrace of the Jan high - Jul low, which also coincides with the 200 day sma, the next few days should be interesting.

Says a lot to me, with the Dow cavorting at newer and newer alltime forever highs, and the SPX at multi-year highs that the Nas can't even take out this years high. SOX got a right drubbing yesterday, looking for 446 - 448 to hold today. Still think we're pretty stuck 'til after OE, heck of a lot of OEX puts sitting outside the money.

 

[mark twain uk]

From Tom Hougaard

It is quite funny to read the hype about the Dow at 12,000, especially when you consider that the NASDAQ couldn't even take out the previous days high, and the SP500 traders just went fishing for stops above 1370. I have a down move in the Dow Map today. The big surge yesterday in the Dow was most likely caused by IBM, which was up $5. Yet it traded lower all day after the open. I would prefer to short the Dow and the SP500 as long as we are trading below 12,020 and 1367 in the SP500 cash market.

The option expiration is on Friday and as I said yesterday, we are long overdue a correction, and the sell-off on Tuesday will most likely be part of a 3 day correction, where today is day 3. If we were to decline further after today, it will almost certainly be a 8-10 day correction, so watch out for the SP500 trading below 1360 for clues. We are approaching the end of October, which for many mutual funds are their year-end. It means that we will likely see quite a lot of support in selected stocks like Google, IBM and GS.

 

[Pat494]

My 50 SMA on the hourly intraday Dow has been on a flat plateau all week. Indicating to me choppy market, oscillating and will suddenly move into the new trend with retracements imho.
Looking a little weak too

 

[mark twain uk]

Anybody else long Gold? :cheesy: :cheesy: :cheesy:

Out now, 102 points in two days. :cheesy: :cheesy: :cheesy:

Back in, buy limit triggered, and out again, at B/E, nice ride :cheesy: :cheesy: :cheesy:

Sorry about being carried away with my gold trade, this is the US indices thread, closed my token shorts on the bounce, waiting for a reversal around 4pm (if Tom's chart is right)

 

[Pat494]

You have probably come up against that old chestnut of a problem of what software to use - especially after a loss or two.
Thought I would tackle the problem from a different direction and that is to ask the online brokers which platform they recommend for their FREE data streams. I will let you know if they ever get around to replying ( must be so tiring counting all that dosh flowing in LOL)

 

[kriesau]

Interesting - he remains 'cautiously bullish' but acknowledges that the indices are getting overbought. More interesting still are his comments on the SOXX and the Nasdaq - the former is looking more bearish and has finally breached support at 450. Will this continue down to make a convincing breach or will it rally next week ?

My view is still that the SOXX and the NDX could be the the first to indicate a trend reversal in the markets.

http://www.shadowtrader.net/videos/sunday102206st.html

 

[kriesau]

"on the cusp of an economic nightmare" !

Don't read this if you are a Bull or of a nervous disposition ! :cheesy:

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/reality/2006/topic8.html

 

[roguetrader]

Don't read this if you are a Bull or of a nervous disposition ! :cheesy:

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/reality/2006/topic8.html

LOL just the sort of thing to fuel more upside.
Planning permission has been granted for an extension on the wall of worry :

 

[kriesau]

"Only borrow money from pessimists since they don't expect you to pay it back"

Don't really think that this describes Fanny Mae or Freddie Mack !

 

[fibonelli]

LOL just the sort of thing to fuel more upside.
Planning permission has been granted for an extension on the wall of worry :

..and the fuel is massive injections of M3 debt money supply which the Fed doesn't publish anymore.

 

[easytimes]

IMO you have two choices: follow the herd or wait. We have an active Fed and mid-term US elections nothing major will happen before. It is still too risky to short this until you get the signal, a close above 12000 on the Dow with further earnings out this week you should get further sideways movement or another burst heading towards the Fib extension using the points from the May high to the July bottom (approx 12289). Caterpillars's weighting on the Dow is large it's fall only held back another surge on the index as Coca Cola and 3M announced strong earnings.

 

[mark twain uk]

We're just shy of 12,100,anybody else thinking of going short here?

Well, I'm in from 12,070 and 12,090, with tight-ish stop loss

 

[Gap Man]

We're just shy of 12,100,anybody else thinking of going short here?

Well, I'm in from 12,070 and 12,090, with tight-ish stop loss

fwiw 12095 for me - gotta be worth a try :cheesy:

 

[mark twain uk]

What have I done? I should have read this first:

"With the Dow hitting 12,000, will cheerleading from elements of the financial media, along with mildly positive market sentiment, be enough to sustain stocks in the long term?

Clem Chambers, chief executive officer of the market data Website ADVFN, seems to think so. Chambers said recently that the Dow breaking 12,000 is just the initial stepping stone on the way to the psychologically important 20,000 level for the Dow industrials. He predicts, "This is the end of the horizontal channel and the first step up to 20,000."

 

[Gap Man]

What have I done? I should have read this first:

"With the Dow hitting 12,000, will cheerleading from elements of the financial media, along with mildly positive market sentiment, be enough to sustain stocks in the long term?

Clem Chambers, chief executive officer of the market data Website ADVFN, seems to think so. Chambers said recently that the Dow breaking 12,000 is just the initial stepping stone on the way to the psychologically important 20,000 level for the Dow industrials. He predicts, "This is the end of the horizontal channel and the first step up to 20,000."

Yeah but you said you had a tight stop right.....

 

[rav700]

We're just shy of 12,100,anybody else thinking of going short here?

Well, I'm in from 12,070 and 12,090, with tight-ish stop loss

I have bought a December Contract mate @12,072.........with a 300 point stop.............

I thought this was the last stretch..................about 2 hours ago came home only tof find the dow at 12116 cash I can't believe what I am looking at....................Hopefull It will come down to 12072 before december.................but saying that this is what I thought when the dow was at 11681 and 11850 and it has not even thought about it for time..................

Will there be a sell off ever is the biggest questions in my books

Mark you have done better than me trust me.......