roguetrader
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Would be modestly surprised if we move far from here before options expiry on Friday
...and if that don't get us moving nothin will
...and if that don't get us moving nothin will
mark twain uk
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will they, won't they , the US Cash is 11,988, they will push for 12,000 tonight, it's too close to let it go
mark twain uk
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Same here, Karmit, I too added to my short, but I am getting worried, my heart tells me nothing goes up for ever, my brain tells me that the market can stay irrational longer than I can stay solvent
roguetrader
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November 7th
rav700
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mark twain uk said:
Dow jones is really doing my head no matter how hard I try it alway seems to tempt me into shorting it...............Guess what I went and bought another December contract today @12025 with a stop @ 12175..............So far I have been lucky that I have not ended up with major losses on my shorts....But my problem is how much will it stil go will it ever stop forget fibo's forget overbought stoch's forget retracements...........................ARE THEY EVER GOING TO STOP..........................This is my last attempt to short the dow even though I keep on saying that it seems like the
trying to call me..........Everything I read seems to say that enough is enough........................
Please tell me that after 5 years of trading with good T.A -----my principles of technical analysis have been thrown down the drain.......................................
If the techies earnings are strong then this'll drive the SOX and NDX through resistance and maintain the rally into the elections, strong tech earnings will be the catalyst to a much higher market. Waiting for key support levels to break will be the only safe way of taking short positions in my opinion. The more shorts in the market the higher it'll get driven. If you're lucky you might squeeze a few points on a retrace.
Weekly Market Comment
by John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
Hussman Strategic Growth Fund
October 16, 2006
Despite the new highs in the Dow Industrials, the general quality of market action is currently only modestly favorable overall - note, for example, that in recent weeks, the number of stocks achieving weekly new highs hasn't exceeded the levels seen in the January-May period. Meanwhile, the decline in bond yields - which formed the backbone of the recent rally - has reversed enough to put general yield trends back to a neutral condition. So overall, the favorable condition of market action has to be qualified by "modestly." Conditions aren't robust enough to warrant a large exposure to market fluctuations.
Even barring a full-fledged bear market, it's notable that the Dow has now gone over 900 trading days without even a 10% correction. The current advance is among the 5 longest uncorrected advances on record. Contrary to popular belief, the bulk of history has been accompanied by lower P/E ratios as well as lower interest rates than we presently observe. Neither of these conditions prevented extended market advances from being punctuated by significant declines. Suffice it to say that even if the market was to advance further by 10% or more (which I view as improbable), the likelihood of investors actually retaining the gain would be fairly negligible.
On a short-term basis, despite the modestly favorable tone of market action, the status of the market at the moment can be classified as "overvalued, overbought, and overbullish." The S&P 500 currently trades at 18.3 times record earnings (on record profit margins), stocks are clearly overbought on the basis of a variety of technical measures, and advisory bulls exceed 50%. Historically, this set of conditions has been associated with short-term market losses, on average, even when our broader measures of market action have been favorable.
by John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
Hussman Strategic Growth Fund
October 16, 2006
Despite the new highs in the Dow Industrials, the general quality of market action is currently only modestly favorable overall - note, for example, that in recent weeks, the number of stocks achieving weekly new highs hasn't exceeded the levels seen in the January-May period. Meanwhile, the decline in bond yields - which formed the backbone of the recent rally - has reversed enough to put general yield trends back to a neutral condition. So overall, the favorable condition of market action has to be qualified by "modestly." Conditions aren't robust enough to warrant a large exposure to market fluctuations.
Even barring a full-fledged bear market, it's notable that the Dow has now gone over 900 trading days without even a 10% correction. The current advance is among the 5 longest uncorrected advances on record. Contrary to popular belief, the bulk of history has been accompanied by lower P/E ratios as well as lower interest rates than we presently observe. Neither of these conditions prevented extended market advances from being punctuated by significant declines. Suffice it to say that even if the market was to advance further by 10% or more (which I view as improbable), the likelihood of investors actually retaining the gain would be fairly negligible.
On a short-term basis, despite the modestly favorable tone of market action, the status of the market at the moment can be classified as "overvalued, overbought, and overbullish." The S&P 500 currently trades at 18.3 times record earnings (on record profit margins), stocks are clearly overbought on the basis of a variety of technical measures, and advisory bulls exceed 50%. Historically, this set of conditions has been associated with short-term market losses, on average, even when our broader measures of market action have been favorable.
mark twain uk
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Extract from above:
"it's notable that the Dow has now gone over 900 trading days without even a 10% correction. The current advance is among the 5 longest uncorrected advances on record. "
"even if the market was to advance further by 10% or more (which I view as improbable), the likelihood of investors actually retaining the gain would be fairly negligible."
So who's buying the dow, whose money is being wasted? I think that only massive hedge funds can do that, I cannot believe that Joe Bloggs remortgages his house (again) to buy stocks. And if it is hedge funds that drive the dow higher, what would happen when they decide the time has come to cash in their gains?
"it's notable that the Dow has now gone over 900 trading days without even a 10% correction. The current advance is among the 5 longest uncorrected advances on record. "
"even if the market was to advance further by 10% or more (which I view as improbable), the likelihood of investors actually retaining the gain would be fairly negligible."
So who's buying the dow, whose money is being wasted? I think that only massive hedge funds can do that, I cannot believe that Joe Bloggs remortgages his house (again) to buy stocks. And if it is hedge funds that drive the dow higher, what would happen when they decide the time has come to cash in their gains?
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This is for those trying to call a top on this bull market. I came across this quote from Sir John Templeton
"Bull markets are born on pessimism; grow on skepticism; mature on optimism; and die on euphoria."
Which stage are we at. You decide. I don't think it's euphoria, otherwise we would already be over 12000
"Bull markets are born on pessimism; grow on skepticism; mature on optimism; and die on euphoria."
Which stage are we at. You decide. I don't think it's euphoria, otherwise we would already be over 12000
roguetrader
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Dow and S&P have done extraordinarily well so far, but I think the time has come for the Nasdaq to cast its vote. Currently sitting just below the April highs of 2375 (compq) there's a little more room if you favour the NDX as your guide. The SOX is currently loitering around the 50% retrace of the Jan high - Jul low, which also coincides with the 200 day sma, the next few days should be interesting.
mark twain uk
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DC,
What would you see as a good entry point today, above or below 12,000?
What would you see as a good entry point today, above or below 12,000?
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