Do you use Fundamentals

[Salty Gibbon]

Yes, but "finding a way " does not mean that I truly know what I am doing.

I have spent most of my life finding ways to beat various systems and have been quite successful. As a result I have tended to coast through life without too much effort , whereas other people that I have come across on the way, have struggled like hell and sweated blood to achieve rather less.

I have always believed in short cuts to proficiency in anything without ever necessarily mastering a particular subject.

Simplicity is always my route to success.

Life is too short to get bogged down.

:cheesy:

 

[LION63]

Salty,

"I have spent most of my life finding ways to beat various systems and have been quite successful. As a result I have tended to coast through life without too much effort , whereas other people that I have come across on the way, have struggled like hell and sweated blood to achieve rather less."

This shows that you cannot be regarded as one of those that does not know what he is doing. You can construct your own chart and read it and extract the information it produces, how many others can say that? Most are not proficient and their trading proves it.

I have nothing against day traders or TA as long as people know what they are doing and talking about.

 

[SOCRATES]

Salty,

To me it would imply that you have "found a way", and long may it last, technicals have a horrible habit of morphing from success to failure without rhyme or reason.

cheers d998

OOOO ....morphing...marvellous post...

I have now realised all these pronouncemnts you make are truly priceless.

You will be gratified to know in here I have a notice board covered with green baize, approximately 12 ft X 8 ft, and I am dedicating part of it to reprints of unusual posts on this website, with the header "The Rudiments of Wisdom".

There will be a special section devoted to some of the things you say as a sub heading "The Sayings of Ducatti".

I am sure you will be very pleased and proud to know this and that also you are in great company and share the board with other great T2W luminaries, I will not tell you who they are, as it is likely to make their little heads get very big, bless them.

The disadvantage is that very few people get a glimpse of these displays because as you already probably know, my trading room is strictly out of bounds to visitors, but those few who are allowed in are real traders, handpicked.

 

[Salty Gibbon]

You will be gratified to know in here I have a notice board covered with green baize, approximately 12 ft X 8 ft,

Is it an up-ended snooker table Soc ?

:cheesy:

 

[SOCRATES]

OOOO and I forgot to tell you, that if a post is particularly "good" it gets framed, and is pinned to the ceiling, black background, white lettering, as you in the know, know.

We have fondly nicknamed them "Tombstones".

I solemny promise that if at any time any one of your sayings satifies such a status,
I will make a point of letting you know.

 

[SOCRATES]

Is it an up-ended snooker table Soc ?

:cheesy:

No Salty, that is one miracle I cannot perform, to play snooker on a vertical surface.

Seriously, I have a purpose built dealing room, which is a separate building in the grounds of my home specaily constructed and all the walls are lined with green baize from the worktop up, as this is a very restful colour to the eye. The walls are lined with thick cork tiles underneath the baize so that it doubles as a pinboard. Inlaid pine ceiling.The lighting is reflected light operated by dimmers. Two skylights with specially constructed anti moth guards to stop insects coming in and the same for the two windows. Controllable louvres additionally to control light. Separate blinds. Double glazed.
The unit has its own generator for continuity of electricity in the event of cutoff. Fully insutated walls and cieling and floor.Its own ring main.Breaker circuits. Thermostatic heating and cooling.Three telephone lines. Fax line.Internet .Telephones fitted with scramblers and secrecy buttons. Touch - light bankers's lamps. Eight computers, 22 screens. Electric typwriter.TV. Atomic clocks. Printers decoders and all manner of gadgets. Multiple datafeed capability via satellite.Leather chairs.What can I tell you, the works !

 

[TheBramble]

Does it have a blue light on the top and Billy Piper running around pouting as well?

 

[turtle trader]

Soc,

I'm trying to decide whether your trading room is the muts nuts or if you just need to get out more.

Obviously it's important to have the correct setup/backup/disaster recovery facilities etc., but are you suggesting that everything you've listed is 'mission critical', or will you admit to a gadgetry fetish here? (Nothing wrong with too many gadgets in my book, I hasten to add).

Just curious during a quiet spell
Simon

 

[SOCRATES]

I love gadgets but they add a lot of clutter, and I also like clutter, but it adds a lot of gadgets.

 

[SOCRATES]

Does it have a blue light on the top and Billy Piper running around pouting as well?

No, that is only the film, Bramble please.

 

[SOCRATES]

By the way have a look here www.ardisdesign.co.uk .

 

[twiggytwo]

The total contents of this thread are excellent !
Thank you all, it has been a pleasure to read.
Best Regards twiglet

 

[chump]

I will use anything FA ...TA ..preferably both if available ..but whichever, minimal risk is the first priority ...you can't make money by losing too much of it on high risk (poor trades) trades ..trade selection my number 1 aim ...if it isn't top drawer go to the gym or something

Somewhere back on this thread it was said FA is a leading indicator and technical was lagging...I disagree...neither can do you much good I think if you can't anticipate what might happen next and then setup to observe if you get confirmation that your anticipation is correct....I keep reading about trade what you see..couldn't agree more ,but first you have to know where to look and then you have to know what you are looking for !

 

[JohnDoe]

How else would one arrive at fair value for a company's shares?

Errr.....

I guess we could use the current market price!

What ever the last trade was is what the market currently perceives value to be. Anyother fantasy or mathematical model or calculation is just a dream.

If your p/e ratio and square root of earnings x number of employees (or other fantasy) gives you a value of xyz, then you're going to be shafted in a BIG way if someone with a larger account and power happens to disagree with you.

Besides, governments and companies often lie (some times purposefully, some times not) about their returns and other details, so any calculation on decision based there of, is only going to be guess work anyway.

I imagine a lot of people will tell me that I am coming from a short term traders perspective, and fundamentals are better on a long term horizon. This may be so, but unfortunately the crystal ball has yet to be invented. Just because some situation is perceived to be healthy today (such as company sales revenue), does not imply it will be so tomorrow.

Good luck!

 

[JohnDoe]

Fundamental analysis enables one to get in at much lower levels than those who jump on the bandwagon because a chart shows the shares going up.

I disagree (again!)

Price risk v Information risk is perhaps what you are trying to get at here - which I do agree with. However, we are still dealing with perceptions here, not truths.

 

[LION63]

John Doe,

You are free to trade how you see fit and disregard any method that you do not understand however, your two posts do not portray any knowledge or understanding of fundamental analysis and it would be fruitless arguing with you.

The fact that you have fallen at the first hurdle with your perception of fair value just about says it all.

 

[Texas_Hedge]

Fundamentals. Trade mostly on this information, especially on currencies.


regards
Peter

 

[SOCRATES]

OOOOO ....currencies. You are treading on thin ice here, Peter. This is because you are likely to upset ducatty, who is an expert on fundamentals you see, who is adamant that currencies are not subject to this kind of treatment for (I don't exacly know whether he means for investment, for trading or for speculation) these purposes.

We await further developments with interest....tin hats on...

 

[charliechan]

I agree with john doe.

i dont know what the next tick will be so how can i expect to know what the next earnings report will be?

when i hear about fundamentals, all i think of is enron, world com, and other failures with oh so great balance sheets. yes these are extremes, but it is true that sometimes not everyone is as honest as should be

 

[SOCRATES]

Because what you need is to acquire a good textbook on the topic of "Creative Accounting" and to read it not by flicking through it but by seriously putting your attention on the contents.

You have to put your attention on the topic.The topic will never arrive and put its attention on you. Therefore, like everything else in trading, investing and speculating, you, have to make the effort.