Rhody Trader
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Do you use fundamental information or analysis in your trading? If so, in what manner?
Do you use Fundamentals
- Thread starter Rhody Trader
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How else would one arrive at fair value for a company's shares? Sales, margins, net assets, cash flow and PE ratios etc. are very important at arriving at a price one is prepared to pay for shares and when they are no longer worth holding. Fundamental analysis enables one to get in at much lower levels than those who jump on the bandwagon because a chart shows the shares going up.
Yes there will be many TA exponents laughing at this but I would rather trade a company whose shares yield 5% plus, trade on a PE of less than 10 and the shares are on a discount to net assets with profits on a steady upward trend; than chasing dreams like Google etc. When any of these fundamentals worsen, it is fairly easy to jump ship.
When it comes to trading indices, I believe that the economic picture is very important and try not to get caught out by weekly movements. Markets cannot remain out of line with economic reality for very long.
Yes there will be many TA exponents laughing at this but I would rather trade a company whose shares yield 5% plus, trade on a PE of less than 10 and the shares are on a discount to net assets with profits on a steady upward trend; than chasing dreams like Google etc. When any of these fundamentals worsen, it is fairly easy to jump ship.
When it comes to trading indices, I believe that the economic picture is very important and try not to get caught out by weekly movements. Markets cannot remain out of line with economic reality for very long.
LION63
Fundamentals are a LEADING analysis.
Technicals are a lagging analysis.
Fundamentals allow independant thought and action
Technicals lock you in with the sheep.
Fundamentals highlight reality,
Technicals highlight fantasy
I suspect we are banging our heads against a brick wall. The reason being, to learn technical trading takes 10mins, Fundamentals, possibly a year.
The personalities drawn in many cases to the financial markets are impatient, and TA appeals.
cheers d998
Fundamentals are a LEADING analysis.
Technicals are a lagging analysis.
Fundamentals allow independant thought and action
Technicals lock you in with the sheep.
Fundamentals highlight reality,
Technicals highlight fantasy
I suspect we are banging our heads against a brick wall. The reason being, to learn technical trading takes 10mins, Fundamentals, possibly a year.
The personalities drawn in many cases to the financial markets are impatient, and TA appeals.
cheers d998
Salty Gibbon
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That long huh ?
roguetrader
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Could someone please define for me exactly what fundamental analysis is? Preferably someone who is not anti fundamental analysis
Salty,
Did I say 10 mins...............ok, slight exaggeration, for most people 20mins top.
But then again maybe not.
From the undisputed master of everything Technical or otherwise, the inimitable...........Commen-tata, who took it all to the next level.
Actually Salty, this is a very relevant question relating to the trading environment nowadays.
When I started, everything had to be done by hand, computers were in their infancy. They were not really available commercially and were huge, occupying a specially built air conditioned room that had to be kept dust free and at a fixed low temperature. Then with the advances in technology they became smaller and progressively more accessible and available to the public. The first ones operated on a floppy disc system. A floppy disc was really that. I remember when the first computers available commercially were priced at ridiculous prices by today's standards. Absolutely sky high.
When I was on the floor of the exchange, what was then regarded as a revolutionary step in improving communications was about to be installed. This consisted of the very first Reuters screens. They were much smaller than a sheet of foolscap, in black and white, bulky and clumsy and heavy . They displayed twenty stocks per page, with prices updated manually by the waiters#. All the details of the stock and price changes were done in white, no colour.
In order to find a stock you had to operate a small keyboard with up, down functions. There were only 320 of them in circulation as I recall, and were limited exclusively to the square mile, and only the institutions could afford them because the rental in those days was astronomically expensive, and the cost of running them must also have been horrendous since they operated via open BT telephone lines, just imagine.
In those days charting packages as we know them today were unheard of.
In consequence all charts had to be drawn by hand, and kept as folios, in loose leaf binders.
All the markings were done in pencil, HB, because this grade of pencil lead is easy to rub out or correct when necessary. Only the other day, I came across one of these among my books, dated 1969 - 1974, a complete record for London Brick Company done in point and figure on squared paper (10 to the inch) by myself. And if doing the chart by hand was not tedious enough, the information required to do it had to be dug up.
In those days there were two sources, the Official LIst out of the Financial Times that had the disadvantage that the "marks" published were not always in chronological order (because the tickets did not always show a time stamp or had the time written in when the bargain was "marked" in this way because of dealing pressure when things got the slightest bit busy) and these were late, as the marks published related to the previous day's dealings.
The other source of data was the "board" in the dealing box, or alternatively the Jobber's# boards, but at the end of the day they could not be considered absloutely reliable because many of the marks had been rubbed off during the day if the market had been busy.
I mention this so that you can have some idea of the dificulties involved in following price action.
There also existed a Reuters tape, which was not strictly a ticker tape as it included results and announcements in between the price stream, which made reading it very difficult. In the exchange there was only one. There were always crowds round it milling about so that was also very difficult.
The most reliable record of prices had to be the boards in the dealing box, in the corridors circling the floor. Each Broker and Jobber had one. This was a very ingerious contraption. Made of white acrylic, two were suspended on the walls one behind the other, connected with a two bicycle chains at the top corners and these chains were geared around a bicycle sprocket at each end which allowed the boards to be quickly moved up or down to expose either. I stlll remember the ripping noise the made when they were moved up or down. These are noises you never forget. If there are any members who were there at the time I am sure they will confirm this.
The prices were marked on this board, up in blue, down in red, with chinagraph pencils. At the end of the day they were wiped clean with a rag soaked in methylated spirits, so all the marks for my point and figure books had to be done at the end of the day. In exchange for this concession, I took it upon myself to clean them up when I had finished.
Anyone who has written and kept charts by hand will tell you that this practice sharpens understanding of price action. Some of my very advanced students are able to overcome some problems with this by having an enforced period of actually drawing charts by hand using the data extracted from a spreadsheet. I mention these things because they are relevant.
Once you have forced yourself to draw the charts by hand your grip on price action improves as a consequence of experiencing enforced familiarity with the instrument being charted. But because real time and end of day charts are commonplace nowadays, the need for carrying out this excercise is not viewed as necessary any more, but the experience is very reinforcing and supportive of a general and specific understanding of what price action is all about.
So you see that all these things in those days were very tedious, but I do not regret any of it as it was the basis on which I was later to build an edge, my personal edge. There is no alternative to graft. The problem is that the graft that a trader has to do is not physical, it is mental, and therefore to observer, invisible. It is as if it were not taking place at all.
I must mention that one of my top students was at home, in front of his screen, in his room, quiet as a mouse, watching price action unfolding and waiting for an opportunity. His sister in law, whenever she came to visit, noticed he was repeateadly conspicuous by his absence. On this occasion, she ventured to enter his dealing room unannounced and uninvited. She sees him sitting there, apparently (to her) not doing anything. "Oh ! " ...."Is that all you do ?"She says with a grin on her face. "Yes", he calmly replied, "that is all I do". From that day onwards he only worked strictly behind locked doors.
So you see all of this in some way or another has to do with brainwork, what we call "applied brainwork". Today's modern technology does not exonerate us from the brainwork. This is because computers are not able to think for themselves. To think this could be so is a fool's paradise, because some of the most intelligent people in the world are attracted to this proffession, and what you are up against is the best. I am talking from a trading and dealing point of view exclusively.
The other aspect of brainwork is what I had to do to unravel all of this. That for me was a huge odessey. It was not uncommon for me to have all my meals served on a tray for perhaps two days and nights when I was engaged in trying to solve a riddle, as I was determined not to go to bed until the riddle was solved to my complete satisfaction, and, furthermore, that the solution was the correct one, and was able to fit seamlessly with everything else, that is, not force fitted at all.
In consequence of this, I went through a stage of not going out into the street for months on end. I had my tobacco delivered in terms of a year's supply, or six months supply or whatever. It was like a sort of "Rip Van Winkle" type of experience. I would venture out of my front door to go and post a letter or something, and all the shops had changed, nothing was as I had seen it perhaps many weeks or even several months before.
Of course, computers are wonderful. They allowed me to find answers to questions in days rather than years. I had several programmers I could rely on to carry out missions for me.
The nature of these missions was for them to construct software, expendable software that would allow me to explore a particular concept and to see where it led, or , to have an idea verified or not. This cannot be in practicality done by hand. The cost was enormous, but the benefits huge. This is because when you are able to eliminate all that does not work, that which works, and works repeateadly and reliably, however improbable, or seemingly arcane, or off the wall, must be correct.
The process, in my view, having experienced the odessey, could not have been shortened as I had to unravel it all on my own. Had I not had to follow the route I did, as a consequence of having been given help, it would have made it shorter, but not as complete.
Also, I would not have had the need to add refinements. It is the final refinement that grants the ultimate edge. This is because the ultimate edge is a very personal thing, as a consequence of what leads to it being essentially experiential and cognitive. This is a developed faculty that computers and software and books even cannot deliver. So yes, ultimately it is all down to brainwork, brainwork of the most focused and intense sort. If you are looking for a challenge in this regard you have no further to look than the markets. No one is exonerated from engaging brain, and keeping it engaged.
Historical Note:~
Footnote # Waiters:~
The waiters were funcionaries of the exchange and carried out mixed
duties. They wore red livery. The name given to them originated in the
days from Jonathan's Coffee House in Exchange Alley in which buyers
and sellers would meet to trade in securities, the waiters there were
real waiters and waited upon the customers to serve them coffee.
Exchange Alley itself no longer exists. All the buildings at that time
were made of wood and were swept away by the Great Fire of London.
(1666?) The Exchange was later formalised and moved to Threadneedle St.
The building was reconstructed in the 1960's and now is occupied by the
boundary of Threadneedle St., Bartholomew Lane, Copthall St., if my memory
serves me correctly, which I think it does.
Footnote# :~ Jobber.
The forerunner of today's marketmakers, who operated a quote driven system instead of an order driven system. They kept the "Book" for each group of securities they dealt in, in alphabetical order, divided into 4 or 6 such books, known as Jobbers' Ledgers The folios ran on a Kalamazoo system. Each of them must have weighed a ton ! They were about 18" X 10" X 4", and at the end of the day were wheeled with handcarts, piles of them, back to the Jobbers' offices, in and around Finsbury Circus........ a lost world....In the days when shoes had laces and trousers had braces and ties were quiet, and when everyone knew his place, was polite and respectful and all of this without exception, in the hands of gentlemen, nudge.
I must finally record, that as far as I am concerned, I considered it both and honour and a priviledge to have been there. I would also like to take the opportunity to convey greetings
to my old friends dating back to those days, Dulux, Rupert, Bill, Sandy, Malcolm amd Jeremy.
Billy Dennet passed away 4 years ago.
Kind Regards As Usual.
__________________
SOCRATES
There is a very fine line dividing sense from nonsense.
The great majority are unaware of its existence, or, choose to ignore it. Consequently they succeed in misdirecting themselves to choose the wrong side of this line, for reasons best known to themselves. This is a source of amazement to those very few able to correctly logically deduce and reason, viewing nearly everything you will encounter here as nonsense, pure nonsense, that the majority ultimately embrace.
Did I say 10 mins...............ok, slight exaggeration, for most people 20mins top.
But then again maybe not.
From the undisputed master of everything Technical or otherwise, the inimitable...........Commen-tata, who took it all to the next level.
Actually Salty, this is a very relevant question relating to the trading environment nowadays.
When I started, everything had to be done by hand, computers were in their infancy. They were not really available commercially and were huge, occupying a specially built air conditioned room that had to be kept dust free and at a fixed low temperature. Then with the advances in technology they became smaller and progressively more accessible and available to the public. The first ones operated on a floppy disc system. A floppy disc was really that. I remember when the first computers available commercially were priced at ridiculous prices by today's standards. Absolutely sky high.
When I was on the floor of the exchange, what was then regarded as a revolutionary step in improving communications was about to be installed. This consisted of the very first Reuters screens. They were much smaller than a sheet of foolscap, in black and white, bulky and clumsy and heavy . They displayed twenty stocks per page, with prices updated manually by the waiters#. All the details of the stock and price changes were done in white, no colour.
In order to find a stock you had to operate a small keyboard with up, down functions. There were only 320 of them in circulation as I recall, and were limited exclusively to the square mile, and only the institutions could afford them because the rental in those days was astronomically expensive, and the cost of running them must also have been horrendous since they operated via open BT telephone lines, just imagine.
In those days charting packages as we know them today were unheard of.
In consequence all charts had to be drawn by hand, and kept as folios, in loose leaf binders.
All the markings were done in pencil, HB, because this grade of pencil lead is easy to rub out or correct when necessary. Only the other day, I came across one of these among my books, dated 1969 - 1974, a complete record for London Brick Company done in point and figure on squared paper (10 to the inch) by myself. And if doing the chart by hand was not tedious enough, the information required to do it had to be dug up.
In those days there were two sources, the Official LIst out of the Financial Times that had the disadvantage that the "marks" published were not always in chronological order (because the tickets did not always show a time stamp or had the time written in when the bargain was "marked" in this way because of dealing pressure when things got the slightest bit busy) and these were late, as the marks published related to the previous day's dealings.
The other source of data was the "board" in the dealing box, or alternatively the Jobber's# boards, but at the end of the day they could not be considered absloutely reliable because many of the marks had been rubbed off during the day if the market had been busy.
I mention this so that you can have some idea of the dificulties involved in following price action.
There also existed a Reuters tape, which was not strictly a ticker tape as it included results and announcements in between the price stream, which made reading it very difficult. In the exchange there was only one. There were always crowds round it milling about so that was also very difficult.
The most reliable record of prices had to be the boards in the dealing box, in the corridors circling the floor. Each Broker and Jobber had one. This was a very ingerious contraption. Made of white acrylic, two were suspended on the walls one behind the other, connected with a two bicycle chains at the top corners and these chains were geared around a bicycle sprocket at each end which allowed the boards to be quickly moved up or down to expose either. I stlll remember the ripping noise the made when they were moved up or down. These are noises you never forget. If there are any members who were there at the time I am sure they will confirm this.
The prices were marked on this board, up in blue, down in red, with chinagraph pencils. At the end of the day they were wiped clean with a rag soaked in methylated spirits, so all the marks for my point and figure books had to be done at the end of the day. In exchange for this concession, I took it upon myself to clean them up when I had finished.
Anyone who has written and kept charts by hand will tell you that this practice sharpens understanding of price action. Some of my very advanced students are able to overcome some problems with this by having an enforced period of actually drawing charts by hand using the data extracted from a spreadsheet. I mention these things because they are relevant.
Once you have forced yourself to draw the charts by hand your grip on price action improves as a consequence of experiencing enforced familiarity with the instrument being charted. But because real time and end of day charts are commonplace nowadays, the need for carrying out this excercise is not viewed as necessary any more, but the experience is very reinforcing and supportive of a general and specific understanding of what price action is all about.
So you see that all these things in those days were very tedious, but I do not regret any of it as it was the basis on which I was later to build an edge, my personal edge. There is no alternative to graft. The problem is that the graft that a trader has to do is not physical, it is mental, and therefore to observer, invisible. It is as if it were not taking place at all.
I must mention that one of my top students was at home, in front of his screen, in his room, quiet as a mouse, watching price action unfolding and waiting for an opportunity. His sister in law, whenever she came to visit, noticed he was repeateadly conspicuous by his absence. On this occasion, she ventured to enter his dealing room unannounced and uninvited. She sees him sitting there, apparently (to her) not doing anything. "Oh ! " ...."Is that all you do ?"She says with a grin on her face. "Yes", he calmly replied, "that is all I do". From that day onwards he only worked strictly behind locked doors.
So you see all of this in some way or another has to do with brainwork, what we call "applied brainwork". Today's modern technology does not exonerate us from the brainwork. This is because computers are not able to think for themselves. To think this could be so is a fool's paradise, because some of the most intelligent people in the world are attracted to this proffession, and what you are up against is the best. I am talking from a trading and dealing point of view exclusively.
The other aspect of brainwork is what I had to do to unravel all of this. That for me was a huge odessey. It was not uncommon for me to have all my meals served on a tray for perhaps two days and nights when I was engaged in trying to solve a riddle, as I was determined not to go to bed until the riddle was solved to my complete satisfaction, and, furthermore, that the solution was the correct one, and was able to fit seamlessly with everything else, that is, not force fitted at all.
In consequence of this, I went through a stage of not going out into the street for months on end. I had my tobacco delivered in terms of a year's supply, or six months supply or whatever. It was like a sort of "Rip Van Winkle" type of experience. I would venture out of my front door to go and post a letter or something, and all the shops had changed, nothing was as I had seen it perhaps many weeks or even several months before.
Of course, computers are wonderful. They allowed me to find answers to questions in days rather than years. I had several programmers I could rely on to carry out missions for me.
The nature of these missions was for them to construct software, expendable software that would allow me to explore a particular concept and to see where it led, or , to have an idea verified or not. This cannot be in practicality done by hand. The cost was enormous, but the benefits huge. This is because when you are able to eliminate all that does not work, that which works, and works repeateadly and reliably, however improbable, or seemingly arcane, or off the wall, must be correct.
The process, in my view, having experienced the odessey, could not have been shortened as I had to unravel it all on my own. Had I not had to follow the route I did, as a consequence of having been given help, it would have made it shorter, but not as complete.
Also, I would not have had the need to add refinements. It is the final refinement that grants the ultimate edge. This is because the ultimate edge is a very personal thing, as a consequence of what leads to it being essentially experiential and cognitive. This is a developed faculty that computers and software and books even cannot deliver. So yes, ultimately it is all down to brainwork, brainwork of the most focused and intense sort. If you are looking for a challenge in this regard you have no further to look than the markets. No one is exonerated from engaging brain, and keeping it engaged.
Historical Note:~
Footnote # Waiters:~
The waiters were funcionaries of the exchange and carried out mixed
duties. They wore red livery. The name given to them originated in the
days from Jonathan's Coffee House in Exchange Alley in which buyers
and sellers would meet to trade in securities, the waiters there were
real waiters and waited upon the customers to serve them coffee.
Exchange Alley itself no longer exists. All the buildings at that time
were made of wood and were swept away by the Great Fire of London.
(1666?) The Exchange was later formalised and moved to Threadneedle St.
The building was reconstructed in the 1960's and now is occupied by the
boundary of Threadneedle St., Bartholomew Lane, Copthall St., if my memory
serves me correctly, which I think it does.
Footnote# :~ Jobber.
The forerunner of today's marketmakers, who operated a quote driven system instead of an order driven system. They kept the "Book" for each group of securities they dealt in, in alphabetical order, divided into 4 or 6 such books, known as Jobbers' Ledgers The folios ran on a Kalamazoo system. Each of them must have weighed a ton ! They were about 18" X 10" X 4", and at the end of the day were wheeled with handcarts, piles of them, back to the Jobbers' offices, in and around Finsbury Circus........ a lost world....In the days when shoes had laces and trousers had braces and ties were quiet, and when everyone knew his place, was polite and respectful and all of this without exception, in the hands of gentlemen, nudge.
I must finally record, that as far as I am concerned, I considered it both and honour and a priviledge to have been there. I would also like to take the opportunity to convey greetings
to my old friends dating back to those days, Dulux, Rupert, Bill, Sandy, Malcolm amd Jeremy.
Billy Dennet passed away 4 years ago.
Kind Regards As Usual.
__________________
SOCRATES
There is a very fine line dividing sense from nonsense.
The great majority are unaware of its existence, or, choose to ignore it. Consequently they succeed in misdirecting themselves to choose the wrong side of this line, for reasons best known to themselves. This is a source of amazement to those very few able to correctly logically deduce and reason, viewing nearly everything you will encounter here as nonsense, pure nonsense, that the majority ultimately embrace.
roguetrader
Senior member
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- 49
ducati998 said:
D998,
I will no doubt regret asking this but curiosity has got the better of me. Why do you hate TA with such a passion? I find such views odd, I dislike or disagree with many things in life, but for the most part I view them dispassionately.
Nobrainer,
You are right in your assumption. I have no doubt that you are a good day trader and TA would hold you in good stead but how many individuals really know what they are doing when it comes to day trading with the aid of TA? How many can even draw proper trend lines?
I have total respect for those that use TA and make money day trading or otherwise, it is not an easy accomplishment. But there are too many gunslingers out there that do not have a clue and struggle to make a call based on their own charts. They give chartists a very bad reputation.
You are right in your assumption. I have no doubt that you are a good day trader and TA would hold you in good stead but how many individuals really know what they are doing when it comes to day trading with the aid of TA? How many can even draw proper trend lines?
I have total respect for those that use TA and make money day trading or otherwise, it is not an easy accomplishment. But there are too many gunslingers out there that do not have a clue and struggle to make a call based on their own charts. They give chartists a very bad reputation.
SOCRATES
Veteren member
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Come to think of it, lion, how many daytraders know what they are doing at all ? In fact, I remember being present at a seminar in which the delegates were handed all the charts upside down, and no one made a squeak until the proceedings got under way, dreadful ! No wonder nearly everyone is baffled. No wonder that people eventually despair and take refuge by using indicators.
The major problem with the majority of day traders is that they are unable to grasp what they are doing. I remember talking to a couple of "Professional Traders" who did not know that HBOS came about through the merger of Halifax and the Bank Of Scotland and they could not define EBITDA. If an individual does not understand the basis on which companies are valued, how can they expect to compete in the markets? Yet they still chase massive gains per trade that for the best part are just an illusion.
The worst thing is that the TA traders tend to believe their own hype that they are responsible for moving the markets. If that were the case, they would continuously lose money. I can understand a day trader buying Google at $277 but how many fundamental traders would commit such a crime?
The worst thing is that the TA traders tend to believe their own hype that they are responsible for moving the markets. If that were the case, they would continuously lose money. I can understand a day trader buying Google at $277 but how many fundamental traders would commit such a crime?
Rogue,
I am that reformed smoker.
But seriously, like smoking TA is extremely hazardous to your financial health.
Now, as my reply to Salty was mostly in jest, it did have an element of truth to it.
Consider;
IF.....I could delineate a 100% Technical system to you.......for example buy an RSI in "oversold"
How long would it take you to grasp and implement the strategy?.....5mins.
The problem with TA, is of course not UNDERSTANDING the system.
It is FINDING a system...............this is where all Technical traders struggle.
Fundamentals conversely are the complete opposite. I can give you a system that has shown 95% reliability over 100yrs, but, requires intelligence to understand.
So, FINDING the system.............5mins
UNDERSTANDING the system, and application, maybe a year.
cheers d998
I am that reformed smoker.
But seriously, like smoking TA is extremely hazardous to your financial health.
Now, as my reply to Salty was mostly in jest, it did have an element of truth to it.
Consider;
IF.....I could delineate a 100% Technical system to you.......for example buy an RSI in "oversold"
How long would it take you to grasp and implement the strategy?.....5mins.
The problem with TA, is of course not UNDERSTANDING the system.
It is FINDING a system...............this is where all Technical traders struggle.
Fundamentals conversely are the complete opposite. I can give you a system that has shown 95% reliability over 100yrs, but, requires intelligence to understand.
So, FINDING the system.............5mins
UNDERSTANDING the system, and application, maybe a year.
cheers d998
SOCRATES
Veteren member
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The problem it seems to me to be that both groups muddle the differences that exist between trading, investing and speculation. Very often the trader believes himself to be speculating, the speculator thinks he is trading, and the investor believes himself to be doing neither. Additonally neither of the three knows anything in depth about anything other than what they are doing themselves, leading to squabbles of the most amusing nature.LION63 said:
Salty Gibbon
Experienced member
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But is it necessary to really "know what you are doing" in order to consistently make money trading the markets on a daily basis ?
Salty Gibbon
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I am.
Does this truly imply that I do know what I am doing or have I just "found a way " ?
Does this truly imply that I do know what I am doing or have I just "found a way " ?
