Diary of a swing spread better

chindl said:
Jesse Livermore - every trader should have that book - especially at the prices that you can get it for. I've never ever read a book with so many quotable quotes in it. If you've not read the book then you should. Legendary.
C
Click to expand...

Chris,

I think I've read it (haven't finished :) but now that you talk about ''so many quoatable quotes in it'' I am not so sure any more :) May be I had read a different one. Is it about the bucket shops and the guy was kicked out by one after another because he won too often?

Hope you've been having a good weekend.

Later,

H
 
Split,

I place my trades at eod as i am out working most of the day.

Slapshot,

Horses for courses mate, I've tried daytrading and thats where i got my fingers burnt (and continue to do so every time i drift back to it)

Eod on dow is no different to eod on any other instrument, however on the dow poor money management will not be forgiven.

I know some of you have heart attacks at the sight of my stop loss placement but if your gonna swing trade the dow over days rather then hours you must not let yourself place tight stops cause your thinking of the $ loss.

Hope youve all had a nice weekend, I went over to that hortan park farm that was recommended on this excellent thread, now i'm shattered but the brownie points i got for going plus for not having the computer on all day is bound to reap rewards, Shame i cant trade them for dow points :cheesy:
 
Right then,

I'm splitting this down into two charts.

The first starts earlier than the US open and the volatility was there to see. For the record the system I use avoids the first hour of trading. I find it helps to let things settle down. With experience I may jump on earlier and sometimes do, but prefer to wait. Patience is a virtue and all that.

I've circled the early volatiliy, from the open (2.30) we were swinging 60 points in a matter of minutes and then range bound 10935 - 10970. The rules employ opening trade on +/-20 of the 100ema and had I been active on Friday I would have been long at (1) with the stop 20 below the 100ema. Failure to breach the resistance line @ 16:30 would have set the alarm bells ringing, sticking to the rules though would have seen a stop and reverse as detailed by the short signal confirmation and another entry position came just after 5pm with the bounce off the 100ema and again with the bounce at 10920.

Now, if you look at the second chart, we could have happily closed out the position with the P/D appearing on the CCi & RSI at 17:55ish, as it happened the market dropped again. But take a look at the spike at 18:05? 80 point Spike!!

Now, the charts I use come from CMC's market maker software, and, there's been discussions before about spikes appearing, some say to take out stops. I don't actually trade with CMC I use IG and their chart did not show any spike. Had I been trading and still short I would have been closed out, unjustly imo.

Moving on, next entry would have been long off the clear bounce which continued to creep up until 8pm and then fell back again but holding the 100ema. Very slight n/d appearing on the CCI and RSI and the drop just before 9.

All in all a pretty naff day which would have probably ended up at b/e. Even the Dax earlier in the morning was a non entity. Still, not to worry, days like this happen and another education monitoring the charts looking for patterns to emerge.

Whilst on the issue of charts, I'm going to trial Sierra Chart for the Dow and see how I get on. Does anyone else use CMC for their data. I've read that the MSFT charts on CMC often suffer spikes
 

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Elefteros said:
Hope youve all had a nice weekend, I went over to that hortan park farm that was recommended on this excellent thread, now i'm shattered but the brownie points i got for going plus for not having the computer on all day is bound to reap rewards, Shame i cant trade them for dow points :cheesy:
Click to expand...

I hope I did not 'sell' the park too hard :) I have absolutely no share in it :)

I still can't believe that it's just 90p or something for a day ticket to the soft play area there. It's like they have sales all year round :)

Cheers,

Hung
 
Slapshot said:
Right then,

I'm splitting this down into two charts.

The first starts earlier than the US open and the volatility was there to see. For the record the system I use avoids the first hour of trading. I find it helps to let things settle down. With experience I may jump on earlier and sometimes do, but prefer to wait. Patience is a virtue and all that.

I've circled the early volatiliy, from the open (2.30) we were swinging 60 points in a matter of minutes and then range bound 10935 - 10970. The rules employ opening trade on +/-20 of the 100ema and had I been active on Friday I would have been long at (1) with the stop 20 below the 100ema. Failure to breach the resistance line @ 16:30 would have set the alarm bells ringing, sticking to the rules though would have seen a stop and reverse as detailed by the short signal confirmation and another entry position came just after 5pm with the bounce off the 100ema and again with the bounce at 10920.

Now, if you look at the second chart, we could have happily closed out the position with the P/D appearing on the CCi & RSI at 17:55ish, as it happened the market dropped again. But take a look at the spike at 18:05? 80 point Spike!!

Now, the charts I use come from CMC's market maker software, and, there's been discussions before about spikes appearing, some say to take out stops. I don't actually trade with CMC I use IG and their chart did not show any spike. Had I been trading and still short I would have been closed out, unjustly imo.

Moving on, next entry would have been long off the clear bounce which continued to creep up until 8pm and then fell back again but holding the 100ema. Very slight n/d appearing on the CCI and RSI and the drop just before 9.

All in all a pretty naff day which would have probably ended up at b/e. Even the Dax earlier in the morning was a non entity. Still, not to worry, days like this happen and another education monitoring the charts looking for patterns to emerge.

Whilst on the issue of charts, I'm going to trial Sierra Chart for the Dow and see how I get on. Does anyone else use CMC for their data. I've read that the MSFT charts on CMC often suffer spikes
Click to expand...

Many thanks, Slaps. It was a lot of typing there :)

Have to hand the computer over to my wife now so I'll read it later then.

Have a good night everyone!

H
 
hungvir said:
Thanks, Split. I did not follow the thread and would not have known about the article had you not alerted.

With regards to trading the DOW, I went from trigger happy to trigger shy :)

And I just looked at NG.'s chart, the share in fact had only two down days with the last day being an inside one so my method would not have sent out a buy signal (sorry to Jon for misreading it :)). I know you have your own way of getting in and out but the chart seems to say 'trail your stop often mate' :)

By the way NG. ranked 30 in ADVFN's price x volume top list on Friday. Not sure how relavant this is.

Good trading,

H
Click to expand...

That link I posted has a chart on post 108 that seems very convincing. However, with the shares I've been looking at this afternoon I have not been able to make the argument work!
Volume has always been a mystery to me.

If NG goes up in the morning I shall, indeed, move my stop up behind it.

I have been watching BSY to buy on weakness say, around 540ish- Thursday and Friday the price closed in the upper part of the bars so I left it alone. That's why I went into NG, as a matter of fact. Both of those shares have been resisting the general fall of shares but NG has come back, so I bought into weakness (I hope) :| I would not short BSY, personally. That would be trying to spot the turn and can be dangerous. There are better shorters with a down trend already established.. Why did I go long in NG, anyway? :eek:

Split
 
Hi Split,

I hope you had time to move your stop before NG. dropped and closed lower. BSY still seems strong though.

I've been quite busy and I only have enough time to watch the market but not enough to study it in details and trade.

Anyone made money shorting the DOW today? The last two and a half hour offered such a good shorting opportunity.

Good trading,

H
 
Evening Hung,

Cracking move down this evening, typical when I'm not trading, oh well they'll be plenty more opportunities. The decline was quite steady, but on the 5 & 10 min charts it's looking heavily oversold so I wouldn't be suprised at a move back up this week.

Cheers
 
Hi Slaps,

About 100 points in two hours is quite a bit :) I am not sure if 10700 will hold any more. There'll surely be a bounce or two along the way but it looks like this correction will be here for a while. May be it will go back up because I said this :)

I hope one day we can make this thread our trading room. May be we shall make an appointment to trade the DOW together once in a while. I know we should all be independent traders but discussion does help too.

Thanks again for your post yesterday. It made an interesting reading.

Cheers,

Hung
 
You're welcome m8. Putting the charts together has really helped me recently, particulary trying to spot movements unfolding and learning which patterns produce which results. Not all of them always work all of the time but knowing they're there imo really helps.

I'm definately up for going through the session together, another set of eyes always helps. I've been reading through some of the Chartman threads again today and picking up some more tips.

This correction is certainly substantial. I'm going to be looking at the longer term charts tomorrow as I don't intend to be trading. I've been using SierraChart for the first time today so still getting to grips with it. Still a bit gutted to have missed that move down.

Cheers
 
hungvir said:
Hi Slaps,

About 100 points in two hours is quite a bit :) I am not sure if 10700 will hold any more. There'll surely be a bounce or two along the way but it looks like this correction will be here for a while. May be it will go back up because I said this :)

I hope one day we can make this thread our trading room. May be we shall make an appointment to trade the DOW together once in a while. I know we should all be independent traders but discussion does help too.

Thanks again for your post yesterday. It made an interesting reading.

Cheers,

Hung
Click to expand...

I moved NG's stop up a bit but am still in the trade. If I had been home at the market close I would have closed the trade but, as it is, expect to get stopped out on this morning's open.
 
NG. I lost 4.5 points on the trade. I know that there are disatisfied clients on other threads but, with the spread included, I cannot complain about that. They stopped me at 587 and the selling price hasn't been above that this morning.

I suppose the complainers are trading other instruments which I do not know about.

Split
 
Slaps - I note you wait for a 20 point break of the 100 EMA in whichever direction rather than trade on the pullback to the 100EMA, as Chartman's article suggests. Do you find this to be protective to you and that you trade less and profit more by waiting for that confirmation? When I looked at your charts posted on Sunday, I couldn't help noticing that entry 1, for me, would have been on the pullback rather than the 20 point break to the downside. However, I do appreciate that this could result in overtrading when taking each pullback to the EMA following the break and could therefore increase the losses, but of course, stops would potentially be ten or so points closer.

FYI - I followed the threads religously when they were first posted, they were crucial in me getting to grips with the behaviour of the Dow. I have not followed the system so religiously for the past 12 months, so you're help would be appreciated in terms of entry signals.

For the peoples looking at the longer timeframes, a couple of crucial reports out this week. Producer Prices Index today and Consumer Prices Index tomorrow, both 8:30 am ET. These reports will take on more weight given the recent scale back on the equities markets, not just in the US, but also the global exchanges of recent weeks. It would seem that the scale back in markets outside of the US has accelerated ahead of the US, particular in the emerging Asian and South American markets, as one would probably expect. I would expect both these reports to fudge the figures once again and show no inflation, which may add more weight to a pullback on the indices.

Here's a link to the bloomberg economic calendar, for those interested.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html

Will be especially useful to position traders who work the US equities, as there is also a link to the company announcements calendar via the stocks section.

Could be a choppy couple of days, don't get burnt.

Chris
 
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Splitlink said:
NG. I lost 4.5 points on the trade. I know that there are disatisfied clients on other threads but, with the spread included, I cannot complain about that. They stopped me at 587 and the selling price hasn't been above that this morning.

I suppose the complainers are trading other instruments which I do not know about.

Split
Click to expand...

Hi Split,

Given that the FTSE is down 100 points this morning, you should be contented with getting out before it was too late.

And with regards to Fins, I haven't had any problem with them except for I can't use them at work which may be a good thing after all :)

Good trading,

Hung
 
chindl said:
Slaps - I note you wait for a 20 point break of the 100 EMA in whichever direction rather than trade on the pullback to the 100EMA, as Chartman's article suggests. Do you find this to be protective to you and that you trade less and profit more by waiting for that confirmation? When I looked at your charts posted on Sunday, I couldn't help noticing that entry 1, for me, would have been on the pullback rather than the 20 point break to the downside. However, I do appreciate that this could result in overtrading when taking each pullback to the EMA following the break and could therefore increase the losses, but of course, stops would potentially be ten or so points closer.

FYI - I followed the threads religously when they were first posted, they were crucial in me getting to grips with the behaviour of the Dow. I have not followed the system so religiously for the past 12 months, so you're help would be appreciated in terms of entry signals.

For the peoples looking at the longer timeframes, a couple of crucial reports out this week. Producer Prices Index today and Consumer Prices Index tomorrow, both 8:30 am ET. These reports will take on more weight given the recent scale back on the equities markets, not just in the US, but also the global exchanges of recent weeks. It would seem that the scale back in markets outside of the US has accelerated ahead of the US, particular in the emerging Asian and South American markets, as one would probably expect. I would expect both these reports to fudge the figures once again and show no inflation, which may add more weight to a pullback on the indices.

Here's a link to the bloomberg economic calendar, for those interested.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html

Will be especially useful to position traders who work the US equities, as there is also a link to the company announcements calendar via the stocks section.

Could be a choppy couple of days, don't get burnt.

Chris
Click to expand...

Thanks, Chris! There's another even calendar here as well - http://investing.reuters.co.uk/investing/EventCalendar.aspx?ctype=date&filter=2006-05-15&country=UK.

Later,

Hung
 
Interesting! It all depends on what you put in the 'inflation basket', doesn't it.

Good trading

Hung
 
hungvir said:
Hi Split,

Given that the FTSE is down 100 points this morning, you should be contented with getting out before it was too late.

And with regards to Fins, I haven't had any problem with them except for I can't use them at work which may be a good thing after all :)

Good trading,

Hung
Click to expand...

:) Try them on long wave.

Split
 
chindl said:
Slaps - I note you wait for a 20 point break of the 100 EMA in whichever direction rather than trade on the pullback to the 100EMA, as Chartman's article suggests. Do you find this to be protective to you and that you trade less and profit more by waiting for that confirmation? When I looked at your charts posted on Sunday, I couldn't help noticing that entry 1, for me, would have been on the pullback rather than the 20 point break to the downside. However, I do appreciate that this could result in overtrading when taking each pullback to the EMA following the break and could therefore increase the losses, but of course, stops would potentially be ten or so points closer.

FYI - I followed the threads religously when they were first posted, they were crucial in me getting to grips with the behaviour of the Dow. I have not followed the system so religiously for the past 12 months, so you're help would be appreciated in terms of entry signals.

For the peoples looking at the longer timeframes, a couple of crucial reports out this week. Producer Prices Index today and Consumer Prices Index tomorrow, both 8:30 am ET. These reports will take on more weight given the recent scale back on the equities markets, not just in the US, but also the global exchanges of recent weeks. It would seem that the scale back in markets outside of the US has accelerated ahead of the US, particular in the emerging Asian and South American markets, as one would probably expect. I would expect both these reports to fudge the figures once again and show no inflation, which may add more weight to a pullback on the indices.

Here's a link to the bloomberg economic calendar, for those interested.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html

Will be especially useful to position traders who work the US equities, as there is also a link to the company announcements calendar via the stocks section.

Could be a choppy couple of days, don't get burnt.

Chris
Click to expand...



Hi Chris,

I'll have to get back to you on this later as I'm buried at work at the mo :(

Laters
 
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