Desperately seeking a good DAILY Trading System

[swissforex]

Never got whipsawed, to get whipsawed out on a daily TF is some serious whipsaw action going on considering that when one order is triggered the other get cancelled. I think the reason I stopped was because at the time I was very new to trading and it didn't offer me the chance to trade every 10 minutes and blow my account quicker 😉

it seems to simple to be true

on AUDUSD -simply avoiding days after Doji-NEWS filter seems useless

We have to make serious backtesting:smart:

 

[Sang Froid]

it seems to simple to be true

on AUDUSD -simply avoiding days after Doji-NEWS filter seems useless

We have to make serious backtesting:smart:

To backtest, first an ea needs to be written, I'm not keen on eas to be honest. The way I trade this strategy is to look at 6 pairs, which ones are trending on a daily TF and which ones are ranging, which ones are near major S/R lines? If they're trending then I'll apply the strat if I feel they are ranging I'll leave them. For obvious reasons (market times) I've noticed that the AUD and JPY are having some good success rates recently. The thing is that if a pair is currently ranging it doesn't mean to say it wont still break by 30 pips the next day do so I'll also look at the economic calendar to see which currencies have major news releases that could move that pair the most to take out either my buy or sell stop and then the T/P with it in one fell swoop?

No ea could do this as eas are mechanical, therefore backtesting will have to be done manually.... rather you than me, I'll continue to demo this for another week then stick it on a live account again at 50p per pip, if it makes money in 6 months I'll let you know 😆


*******I've just read this back and it all seems very vague, I'll make a new post in the morning with some pretty charts and drawings on and stuff to convey what I mean, right now I'm at work so need to 'look busy'.

 

[SvenFoster]

it seems to simple to be true

on AUDUSD -simply avoiding days after Doji-NEWS filter seems useless

We have to make serious backtesting:smart:

I think the best systems are "simple entries" however thats usually where it stops being simple 😉

The magic usually comes from the trader deciding when and if they should apply that entry and if the trades occur at a sociable time trying to decide if to hang on to it and let it run.


So,
Trading in the direction of a new daily high is as good as any other reason, the hard part is *not* doing it or not closing it...thats where the money is made and that turns a profitable system into a excellent system.

JMHO

 

[Sang Froid]

I think the best systems are "simple entries" however thats usually where it stops being simple 😉

The magic usually comes from the trader deciding when and if they should apply that entry and if the trades occur at a sociable time trying to decide if to hang on to it and let it run.


So,
Trading in the direction of a new daily high is as good as any other reason, the hard part is *not* doing it or not closing it...thats where the money is made and that turns a profitable system into a excellent system.

JMHO

I concur. I like the mechanical nature of this system. In the past my trading has suffered as a result of my interference. I would revenge trade, I would enter positions based on whims and then not let profits run and let losses hit my S/L.

With this system the only interference I have is which pairs to apply the strat to in the first place, everything else is then left to the markets. With good MM I should make money in the long term.

I agree with what you say, entry positions are such a small part of trading, throw enough indicators on a chart and eventually price will 'appear' to react to one of those lines, the hard part in trading is discipline. This mechanical nature of trading suits me and that is half the battle, finding a trading style to suit your personality.

 

[Sang Froid]

The good the bad the ugly

Ok so, how do I use this system as a discretionary/mechanical system, I'll show you now the good the bad and the ugly of my trades from last night.

THE GOOD:

This was a trade that netted me the full 25 pips profit last night which equated to a tidy sum of £121.00. Looking at the economic calendar before hand I noticed that there were no major releases due out on the GBP and nothing on the USD until midday, this meant that this pair was likely to be a pure tech trade. It looked as though it was going to breakout of yesterdays bar range for sure.

as you can see on the final chart, the price spikes up to exactly where my T/P was, hit the resistance and made me some nice moolah 😉

 

[Sang Froid]

The good the bad the ugly

THE BAD

Next is a chart that I decided not to enter a trade on because I thought it would be a bad idea as it has the potential to be quite a choppy day. It's the AusUsd and looking at the first chart it looks as though this pair is ranging, up one day, down the next, had the potential to not make a new high or low which is bad for this system. As you can see would have triggered my sell stop then turned and hit my S/L.

 

[Sang Froid]

The good the bad the ugly

THE UGLY

Lastly from my trading last night comes the ugly. With every system and strategy out there you have to accept losses. With trading comes losses and it's how you handle these. So far with this I've had 7 winners and 3 losses, good to see how this goes.

Good MM has also enabled to have 1 win and 1 loss last night, yet still turn a nice little profit, that's Risk Reward ratios for you 😉

You can see on this chart that the previous day's candle was a bit of a Doji, not a full Doji but knowing the UsdJpy it normally has nice big moves that easily take out both T/Ps either side of my buy or sell stops so thought this could be a perfect setup.

On the first chart you can see that my sell stop had been triggered so my buy stop had been cancelled. My 25 pip T/P rests nicely on a support level and the JPY has a nice tendency to move at night, all looks good huh?

The second chart shows that while being in profit to the tune of half my T/P the price then reveresed and took out my S/L. Maybe I should have moved my S/L up to break even but that is all by the by now, lets see what tonight brings hey!!

I hope this gives an insight into how this works a bit better, how this is a mechanical system yet still retains some elements of discretionary trading. It suits me as a set and forget method yet still gives me the ability to choose my fate by deciding which pairs of a night to apply this to. As a side note I also put the system on the EurUsd last and cancelled both orders at 10am this morning as neither had been triggerd. Had I left it... would have made another nice 25+ pip profit today, but again this is hindsight :smart:

I've also posted my results thus far for 2 weeks of trading.

 

[lbranjord]

Re: The good the bad the ugly

THE UGLY

Lastly from my trading last night comes the ugly. With every system and strategy out there you have to accept losses. With trading comes losses and it's how you handle these. So far with this I've had 7 winners and 3 losses, good to see how this goes.

Good MM has also enabled to have 1 win and 1 loss last night, yet still turn a nice little profit, that's Risk Reward ratios for you 😉

On the first chart you can see that my sell stop had been triggered so my buy stop had been cancelled. My 25 pip T/P rests nicely on a support level and the JPY has a nice tendency to move at night, all looks good huh?

The second chart shows that while being in profit to the tune of half my T/P the price then reveresed and took out my S/L. Maybe I should have moved my S/L up to break even but that is all by the by now, lets see what tonight brings hey!!

I hope this gives an insight into how this works a bit better, how this is a mechanical system yet still retains some elements of discretionary trading. It suits me as a set and forget method yet still gives me the ability to choose my fate by deciding which pairs of a night to apply this to. As a side note I also put the system on the EurUsd last and cancelled both orders at 10am this morning as neither had been triggerd. Had I left it... would have made another nice 25+ pip profit today, but again this is hindsight :smart:

I've also posted my results thus far for 2 weeks of trading.

Dangit, I threw this on demo and got wiplashed into a double loss lol. I wasn't paying attention though. I'm going to demo it more seriously tonight, I wish Oanda had OCO orders, would be perfect. Anyway, I think this is a fun system and on demo if I can get it working like you do, I'll use it 🙂

 

[Sang Froid]

Yeah OCO orders are the way forwards, shame IG who my live account is with don't offer OCO. I work nights in a hotel though so I am up late which suits me down to the ground for this system, easy on a demo but just means I now have to keep my eyes open and not fall asleep in the bar when i'm live 😆

Tonight I've gone for: UsdJpy, GbpUsd, and AudJpy

Hoping with all the news releases tomorrow on the Gbp should get some nice big movement early on. I've avoided the Eur as it's so low on the daily at the minute, not been down that low for nearly a year so don't wanna get whipsawed out, thrown a couple Jpy pairs in for good measure 😀 Lets see what happens and go with the ride, up, down who gives a f**k just hope it moves bigger than a..... really big thing.

 

[Sang Froid]

Tonight I've gone for: UsdJpy, GbpUsd, and AudJpy

Good days trading again :smart:

 

[swissforex]

A nice simple daily system that I used when I first started was:

at the close of every daily candle place a buy stop at +5 pips the high and a sell stop -5 pips the low. Place S/L at 20 pips and T/P at 25 pips for both.

You're not trying to predict whether the trend is up or down, in fact you couldn't care less if it's a bull or a bear or any other creature for that matter just whether you're gonna get a big movement the next day. My broker uses 00.00gmt for a daily candle and I used to capture 25 pips quite often at around 04.00gmt and one pair, more pairs the better.

Like I say, look for volatility, which pair do you think will move the most the next day. I never placed a trade after a Doji, maybe this was superstition but just seemed the next day was a bit choppy.

Like I say it's quite simple and easy to set up, I should start doing this again.... can't remember why I fell out of love with it now 😕

in the last mont seems good

please check it out

 

[Sang Froid]

in the last mont seems good

please check it out

The only problem with this kind of backtesting is that it's hard to determine what the price actually 'did'. For instance yes it appears that there have been many more winners, however in some of those winners the price may have triggered a buy or sell order, then hit a stop loss before turning and hitting a take profit line. It wont appear like that on a daily chart, it just shows winners and losers. I'm still forward testing, this is my last week now on a demo and still all looks good, I'm wondering if this can be limited to say just two pairs, everynight regardless, just set and forget, maybe Gbp/Usd and maybe Eur/Jpy to avoid buying one currency twice as it were, what do you think?

 

[forexkunta]

Swissforex,
Here are the screenshots I was was talking about.
Kent

 

[rathcoole_exile]

A nice simple daily system that I used when I first started was:

at the close of every daily candle place a buy stop at +5 pips the high and a sell stop -5 pips the low. Place S/L at 20 pips and T/P at 25 pips for both.

You're not trying to predict whether the trend is up or down, in fact you couldn't care less if it's a bull or a bear or any other creature for that matter just whether you're gonna get a big movement the next day. My broker uses 00.00gmt for a daily candle and I used to capture 25 pips quite often at around 04.00gmt and one pair, more pairs the better.

Like I say, look for volatility, which pair do you think will move the most the next day. I never placed a trade after a Doji, maybe this was superstition but just seemed the next day was a bit choppy.

Like I say it's quite simple and easy to set up, I should start doing this again.... can't remember why I fell out of love with it now 😕

swissforex, pay heed to this gentleman !

another option for you, given your limited availability to the markets would be to use Weekly Pivots as Triggers in a similar way as described by sangfroid
I currently trade with Weekly Pivots on 8 pairs/commodities/indexes that I don't daytrade. You need to be patient, but can be very rewarding.

 

[JahDave]

I only have one thing to say about a simple trading system.......It works very well when the market is trending.........When the market hits a large correction, or a trend reversal then it doesn't work anymore.......

 

[rathcoole_exile]

I disagree

Using the example described above about breaking from above PDH or from below PDL, even in a sideways market, unless price is going to shrink into ever-decreasing Inside bars, price will always exceed either (or both) PDH or PDL

Maybe by not much, but ......

Nobody ever knows when a market will suddenly take off again (look at yesterday's S&P collapse), so if a trader is patient and keeps taking these breakout opportunities (using the same method for sake of argument) for a few bob here and there, then one day he will be in at the start of a major payday move

so by sticking with a KISS system, he will earn his bread and butter, and be ready for the jam when it comes ........

 

[swissforex]

swissforex, pay heed to this gentleman !

another option for you, given your limited availability to the markets would be to use Weekly Pivots as Triggers in a similar way as described by sangfroid
I currently trade with Weekly Pivots on 8 pairs/commodities/indexes that I don't daytrade. You need to be patient, but can be very rewarding.

Good.

Interesting point of view.👍

And what about MoneyManagement, average Stop Loss and last 3 months results?

thanx

 

[Sang Froid]

I disagree

Using the example described above about breaking from above PDH or from below PDL, even in a sideways market, unless price is going to shrink into ever-decreasing Inside bars, price will always exceed either (or both) PDH or PDL

Maybe by not much, but ......

Nobody ever knows when a market will suddenly take off again (look at yesterday's S&P collapse), so if a trader is patient and keeps taking these breakout opportunities (using the same method for sake of argument) for a few bob here and there, then one day he will be in at the start of a major payday move

so by sticking with a KISS system, he will earn his bread and butter, and be ready for the jam when it comes ........

Nicely said 👍

 

[Sang Froid]

use Weekly Pivots as Triggers in a similar way as described by sangfroid
I currently trade with Weekly Pivots on 8 pairs/commodities/indexes that I don't daytrade. You need to be patient, but can be very rewarding.

I've given this a bit of thought, and had a very very quick backtest using a similar system but using daily TF. Here's how it goes:

At the end of every daily candle work out the pivot point, if the new daily bar opens above the PP place a sell stop 5 pips below PP, if new daily bar opens below PP place buy stop 5 pips above PP.

This is a very quick strategy that I've not worked out any detail for nor have I backtested yet properly. Hence no T/P or S/L yet.

 

[fayalac]

Lots of goood tips arround, maybe i have nothing else to say, but in my own experince, as many mates have told or suggested, the shorter the TF of the charts or indicators the higher the probability to get fast losses, you must be patient, use TF from 1 hr ahead or smaller TF´s but adjust the sensitivity of the indicators attached, i guess these is a good tip.