Dax

rainman2 said:
dazshaw,

I was rereading your post(#277) and analysis and just wanted to acknowledge what a great job of reading the intent of the market.
If I may ask, what made you pick pick the bottom levels that you did (you nailed the bottom almost to the tick)?
Also, now that were at the levels where you stopped your analysis, what in your opinion happens next?

once again "great job" and if you have anymore thoughts on 'selling to close', 'new open positions' and 'buy to close',and how you can tell the difference, I for one would be very interested to listen.

Hi Rainman, thanks for your comments.

Basically the level i picked was a lot to do with the fact that it was quite a psychological level, plus millions around the world can see it, all thinking about playing the quick bounce, hence stops at various levels around there, NOT just in 1 place. The gap down pretty much confirmed the intent at the time, but as was pointed out by Mr Marcus on another thread you have to see if the market normally makes a V and reverses straight away, if not see what the reaction is on the re-test, hence the drop below 6500 again, which this time was bought up!

As for the positions being taken, well im still doing as much research as i can. But it does help to evaluate what has and has not happened, and the following reactions, and then question them. Take a look at this link by Mr Marcus http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?t=23892&page=17&pp=10 post 169. This has some great insight into whats going on, and how to think about the actions and reactions. These posts are more important than you may think, infact they are essential!

So where now? Like I say im still "doing my time", but I do get worried when many start to talk the market up again, so a move down is a very probable outcome (sorry for pointing out the obvious, as it can only go up or down!), but in all fairness would like to see a bit more down side soon, as this will help me with my progression in terms of learning about what I am observing or not as the case may be :(

Regards

DS
 
mr.marcus said:
.....good call mate....both sides almost to the tick....largely unrecognised of course....but take that as encouragement .....see the red circle.....think about your prediction there....dont just accept you were wrong....your circle prediction didnt logically flow to the rest of the structure.....think about it and drop me a mail.......cheers mark j



Thanks, will do Mark, will be on Sat as I have to go down stairs for the evening. BTW I Like your homepage, very soothing :cool:

Darren
 
DAX, FTSE futures volume data

Hi
Could anyone give me some advice on volume data for DAX and FTSE. I use SB atm and dont have any charting software apart form the SB platform and charts. I need a reasonably priced reliable solution with real time datafeed and software. I mostly scalp and day trade but rarely hold overnight.
I would be gratefull for any advice on that matter?
thanx
maciek
 
Maciek,

I use VisualChart for real-time Eurex futures and options. Includes international cash indices, forex, time and sales, DOM (level 1, level 2 an extra £5-£10 per month), charting and news. Cost around £50 per month. Excluding Reuters and Bloomberg, for the small investor this is the best - and I've tried them all.
It's only weakness is its news service.

http://www.visualchart.com/enxx/products/institutional/institutional.asp?seleccion=5

Grant.
 
grantx said:
Maciek,

I use VisualChart for real-time Eurex futures and options. Includes international cash indices, forex, time and sales, DOM (level 1, level 2 an extra £5-£10 per month), charting and news. Cost around £50 per month. Excluding Reuters and Bloomberg, for the small investor this is the best - and I've tried them all.
It's only weakness is its news service.

http://www.visualchart.com/enxx/products/institutional/institutional.asp?seleccion=5

Grant.

Hi grant

Thank you very much I will check it out
 
mickandpete said:
Grant
The US Government,in fact the whole nation consider all foreigners to be working against their interests.
Here again the worm appears to have turned.I read recently that a line has been crossed and foreigners now earn more from their US assets than the US does from its foreign holdings. (Correction or positive data welcome )
As for the idea that everything in the US garden is rosy,the ripples from the Sub Prime mortgage market are deepening.
Those ripples are now a lot deeper
Not quite time for full storm warning
WATCH OVER THE POND VERY CAREFULLY HOWEVER
 
mickandpete said:
Those ripples are now a lot deeper
Not quite time for full storm warning
WATCH OVER THE POND VERY CAREFULLY HOWEVER


Man, it's been a good day...I kicked the Dax's sorry little kraut ass all day long (I'm talking massive run up kicks, & wearing steel toe cappers) & then later in the day after my work was done, I moved on to kick some Yankee butt instead.

It was my best trading day in a long while (I'm talking about 500 points collected here there & everywhere)

I'll be staying up late tonight to watch the far east...mainly cos I'm still majorly short dow (I had been expecting some tankage after the bell, which disappointingly didn't happen)...if they wobble I reckon it'll be Dow sub 12k tomorrow.
 
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hobby said:
Man, it's been a good day...I kicked the Dax's sorry little kraut ass all day long (I'm talking massive run up kick wearing steel toe cappers) & then later in the day after my work was done, I moved on to kick some Yankee butt instead.

my best trading day in a long while (I'm talking about 500 points collected here there & everywhere)

I'll be staying up late tonight to watch the far east...mainly cos I'm still majorly short dow (I had been expecting some tankage after the bell, which disappointingly didn't happen)...if they wobble I reckon it'll be Dow sub 12k tomorrow.

Magic absolutely brilliant post... Love the spirit
Well Done :D
 
Hook Shot said:
Magic absolutely brilliant post... Love the spirit
Well Done :D

HookShot, how are you doing? long time no hear...
DAX has brought us back at this year's highs... I was wondering... any thoughts? What next?

I'm wary of this "fake" strength in the market, it might last for a bit longer, but while DAX is rolling ahead, DOW seems to be lagging pace :|
 
Man, that DAX is one evil mutha to short. It regroups & comes right back at you more times than that Terminator II bad guy!

Astonishing bounceback from the lows of a couple of weeks ago....ASTONISHING!

I took a monster amount out of it on the way down, but just about given it all back on the way up! (isn't it amazing just how quickly all the 'feelbad' topics get brushed away under the carpet and people carry on as before?).

It spanked my little trading ass yesterday AND today (but in a chinese water torture sort of way),...I guess I have the President of Iran to thank for my losses yesterday (sawn off litte tw@t that he is), but today (anyone want to take the blame - it can't be me!)

The Dax is a thing of beauty when you catch it right (to the downside), but those days are few & far between, Anyone recognise this trend of late....

Dax goes up in the morning.
US opens, US indices go down a little - Dax holds
US indices turn posititive DAX goes up by a larger ratio.
If US indices yield a bit, then DAX yield less!

or how about...

Dax goes up in the morning
figs released stateside worse than the consenscus @1.30pm - Dax gives up 50% of it's gain for a few minutes & then recovers!
US opens...Dax goes up more.

....wtf is gonna take this indice's legs out now?!!! (I see nothing on the short term horizon!) - there's not even the slightest hint of weakness or fear showing at any stage, during any trading session over the past two weeks!
 
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Working like a Swiss Clock

I am always amazed by the Dax precision, regarding the time-of-the-day!

Its LEGENDARY reaction to US News, especially seen at 14:30 CET on 5-min charts, is an excellent trading edge, if coupled with the CBS Market watch Releases, ONLY seconds after the fact!
One thing though.. The News reaction will only slightly influence the dominant trend, highly visible on 60-min chart. The market will keep trending in the initial direction....

Hope this helps,
MD-doc
 

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FWIW Cash Dax 7200 is 20x360 degrees - multiples of circles are sometimes important.
7200 is also 5000 pts above the bearmarket lows in March 03.....

Potentially of interest ......lets see.....

April 08 is 45d since Spx top at 1462ish.
April 13 (FRI) and 14 look interesting as 30d and 1m since the spx bottomed. I think others have mentioned 14th April so I have some company...

That's enough drivel for now.......
 
Hook Shot said:
FWIW Cash Dax 7200 is 20x360 degrees - multiples of circles are sometimes important.
7200 is also 5000 pts above the bearmarket lows in March 03.....

Potentially of interest ......lets see.....

April 08 is 45d since Spx top at 1462ish.
April 13 (FRI) and 14 look interesting as 30d and 1m since the spx bottomed. I think others have mentioned 14th April so I have some company...

That's enough drivel for now.......
I was vaguely thinking that DAX 7250 would be a good place to short. I haven't calculated exactly, but very roughly since the lows it's been UP, correct, UP so I guess that's A-B-C or something in Elliott terminology and 7250 would be about the point where the length of wave C equalled that of wave A. But it could just as well be 7200 instead... I guess this is something to look for by the close on Tuesday.
 
Chocolate - 7200 caught my eye for reasons stated but it seems a doddle this week - so 7250 just as good as any since dow still strong at the mo..
 
not an expert on elliott wave..but putting into practice my limited knowledge..7250 looks good!! (for a short) charts attached...move up from June 06 looks like a 5 wave move and we are in the 5th wave up (of a 5th wave)...

Dow and FTSE and CAC still need to make new highs..so BIG question is will they (follow DAX) or is it a warning signal that this last rally is losing steam !! Oh for a crystal ball !! :idea:
 

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A lot has been mentioned about this Friday 13th I was looking for a pullback before higher highs but I do not think it will be massive we may see 6900 cash.

I had pencilled in the 16th as a low but these turns could also be a high, but seeing 13-16 as important

The dax has hardly had more than a 30point pullback in a few weeks it seems. Big divergence with US esp. Dow. A week or so agao the dow dropped over 100 piounts & Dax about 10. Looking for the bottom we are up around 700 points way more than Dow.
 
rustic1 said:
The dax has hardly had more than a 30point pullback in a few weeks it seems. Big divergence with US esp. Dow. A week or so agao the dow dropped over 100 piounts & Dax about 10. Looking for the bottom we are up around 700 points way more than Dow.

Agreed....for now, the DAX is the hardest Indice of 'em all (it could walk to the North Pole with its sleeves rolled up). But should the US indices falter...man, it's a long way down from here.
 
Hobby

do you have any down tagets>

I am thinking of either 6900 or 6700 would be better.

The thing with the Dax is once is drops watch out as it will be sharp & short i think

I am short
 
rustic1 said:
Hobby

do you have any down tagets>

I am thinking of either 6900 or 6700 would be better.

The thing with the Dax is once is drops watch out as it will be sharp & short i think

I am short

I think it's too early to short yet... but I've got my hand on the trigger.
 
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