rainman2 said:dazshaw,
I was rereading your post(#277) and analysis and just wanted to acknowledge what a great job of reading the intent of the market.
If I may ask, what made you pick pick the bottom levels that you did (you nailed the bottom almost to the tick)?
Also, now that were at the levels where you stopped your analysis, what in your opinion happens next?
once again "great job" and if you have anymore thoughts on 'selling to close', 'new open positions' and 'buy to close',and how you can tell the difference, I for one would be very interested to listen.
Hi Rainman, thanks for your comments.
Basically the level i picked was a lot to do with the fact that it was quite a psychological level, plus millions around the world can see it, all thinking about playing the quick bounce, hence stops at various levels around there, NOT just in 1 place. The gap down pretty much confirmed the intent at the time, but as was pointed out by Mr Marcus on another thread you have to see if the market normally makes a V and reverses straight away, if not see what the reaction is on the re-test, hence the drop below 6500 again, which this time was bought up!
As for the positions being taken, well im still doing as much research as i can. But it does help to evaluate what has and has not happened, and the following reactions, and then question them. Take a look at this link by Mr Marcus http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?t=23892&page=17&pp=10 post 169. This has some great insight into whats going on, and how to think about the actions and reactions. These posts are more important than you may think, infact they are essential!
So where now? Like I say im still "doing my time", but I do get worried when many start to talk the market up again, so a move down is a very probable outcome (sorry for pointing out the obvious, as it can only go up or down!), but in all fairness would like to see a bit more down side soon, as this will help me with my progression in terms of learning about what I am observing or not as the case may be
Regards
DS