Dax

[firewalker99]

One of the best qualities of a trader is to closely follow the market... some would say...
Let's the market talk to you!

One should be able to change his strategy on a flip of a dime!!!
The sideways move was broken down finally... The question is how big will be the drop today?
MD

Yes, you must be able to change your strat on a flip of a dime!
As it happens I have a good example of that today:

I went long initially, got stopped out and reversed my position into a short which paid off nicely

 

[firewalker99]

....just curious fw...what was your primary reason for goin long ....was it finding support at 700?

mark j

6700 was good for support yesterday, and from the open we also went straight above that today...
so basically yes...

do you think the diminishing volume after my long entry was a signal it was going to break? or do you see other warning signals?

PS: I wasn't aware you are following dax..

 

[firewalker99]

...it was never goin to reverse at this point....at best a quick scalp bounce.....it was always just covering at high liquidity....and weak hands goin long at a psychology level.....and yes there was a warning signal before the break ....its there on your chart......cheers mark j

ps.....i trade roughly 70 different markets daily.....dax is top of the list....the most ordered market out there indeedy

Well as you mention it I went long for a quick scalp then closed it out and re-entered long. So basically it was a free trade and if I got stopped out I was always planning to reverse... As always, I'm open to suggestions to improve my win%!

I stick to 5 different markets, my screen's not big enough for 70 lol

 

[firewalker99]

...pps.....post a a chart of the last 3 days say...60 min.....and also....and also finer detail around the support....and ill point some stuff out....off this week with bronchitis...hence i be here....choose a good week yeah

Here you go... I've attached several charts on several different timeframes, zooming in and out... you can comment on whichever you want... (or all of them

 

[rols]

......ok the charts posted show very clearer where the markets next port of call was....before i explain i would like you to have a go at analysis with just the price action...the volume isnt needed....tell me about the players....etc.....just take the first chart youve posted....its all thats needed....do your best.....then ill post. mark j


ps....please also post a close up of the todays bounce at support 700 where you went long on the time frame of your first post.ill show you the exit and reverse point.

Good to see you posting again.

Your contribution to the Wot Happened Next thread was as impressive as it was educational.

I totally agree that almost all we need to know is waving the flag at us in the price action. On the subject of pin bars they are only of value IMO when viewed in the above context. Just as one swallow doesn't make a summer, one pin bar doesn't make a reversal.

 

[firewalker99]

.
ps....please also post a close up of the todays bounce at support 700 where you went long on the time frame of your first post.ill show you the exit and reverse point.

I'm not sure I thought I already posted a close-up... that was a 5-min chart... do you want to have something smaller? I attached it again, my entry long was 6699, my stop&reverse 10 points lower... I exited at 6637, yes too early... but anyway still good for 50 points...

Edit: added 5-min and 2-min close-up

 

[firewalker99]

......ok the charts posted show very clearer where the markets next port of call was....before i explain i would like you to have a go at analysis with just the price action...the volume isnt needed....tell me about the players....etc.....just take the first chart youve posted....its all thats needed....do your best.....then ill post. mark j

I'm not sure what exactly it is you are expecting me to say, so here goes:

First we have the uptrend in place that continues further until the trendline (not visible on this chart) is broken. Around 6950 there was support from earlier on, but buyers could only hold price around that level temporarily. So after the floor came off that level, stops were triggered from those who went long and the market kept plunging further down, almost without hesitation (on this 30-min chart).

The downmove is getting faster and sharper along the way, resulting in an almost vertical move down until all the weak hands have sold and the smart money starts to buy (or if you would like to call it something else that's fine by me). Around 6650 we close the day with a little sign of hope as the last bar closes in the middle. The next day we open higher as all those who were shorts are most likely taking their profits making price go up little.

We stay in the 6700-6775 trading range for the remainder of the day, before attempting to get higher the next day (today). The attempt failed (you can see on this time frame that price bars are becoming smaller and smaller as we reach 6775), which is where I took a short incidently (should have held on much longer!).

What happens next is the second wave of selling comes in, but it comes to end quickly as a lot of buying is exercised around the 6575 level. On a smaller time frame you can see a W-bottom forming.

 

[firewalker99]

......j

you asked me if I was going to have a go at explaining why 6700 didn't reverse...
your text just vanished as I clicked reply though :|

Anyway... I can't tell you why it did or did not reverse, because I don't know.
Although that's not correct 100%: it broke because selling pressure was higher than buying pressure.

I can only tell you how I acted on it. But looking back (hindsight) does tell me it was a low probability trade as we already tested the range yesterday. We went to 6700 several times and also up to 6775 multiple times. This time we moved only as high as 6762... that was already the 4th attempt to go higher... When we finally came back to 6700 yes I expected a bounce and preferably something more than it did, but I never said I expected it to change direction completely and fly right up. I had a target of 6720 in mind, before getting out. But as it came down a short on the break of support was equally rewarding...

I'm not sure how much "explaining why" you want me to do... I believe I'm already putting a lot of time and effort in posting charts with trades with exact entry+exit. So far I haven't really seen much others doing the same... This isn't directed towards you in particular, but it's aan observation nevertheless.

 

[firewalker99]

its good to see someone at least attempting.ok heres the gig,when you are talking about buying and selling its very vague isn't it?do we mean buying to close shorts with profit,do we mean buying to close shorts under duress(dumping)....are we open new longs?.....and are these positions ....instigated by swing traders,intraday swingers,scalpers etc?.....then what is the intent of the professionals at each point.....do they need supply or demand to complete this cycle of trading?......and what is the nature of the current move...is it purely fake...is it a shake....or are the weak hands and pros in sync.....just of course the pros already have what the weak hands are gonna need and want........

you see ......yes...although of course its good to keep things simple when you first start learning.....but it'll take you so far....you then need to start pushing the boundaries goin deeper and becoming more probing with your insights.in short getting inside the minds of weak and strong hands alike and seeing how the flow is being used to satisfy the thirst of the strong.

cheers mark j

I can understand that once you become aware of the flow of money, you gain a better understanding of WHY the market moves the way it does. Like I said in the previous post, at the first low we had a potential selling climax, which is where I think some are buying agressively and those who were shorts close their shorts later on, because price is moving up again. This in turn creates the "bounce" which is usually short-lived. Price is trying to find an equilibrium the next day by ranging in between two boundaries. They professionals need people to buy, so they sell into the weak hands and are holding the shorts when the second plunge begins.

I'm not sure I completely understand your question
"and what is the nature of the current move...is it purely fake...is it a shake...?"
This all depends on the time frame, what is "the current move", the plunge from 7050? the move today? On a bigger time scale, this looks like a much needed correction, which I said would happen a month ago (there you have my predicting skills lol).

 

[firewalker99]

if it was possible to get people to focus on one thing for any length of time i would put more into it and hang around.but seems nigh impossible to develop one question at a time.a key component of success is perseverance and patience.

cheers mark j

Ok, than let me start with one simple question about Russell 2000.
Why did the first support break and the second hold? (attached 1 hour chart)

Incidentally I bought 775 today and exited 787 (attached 5-min chart)...although we went up to 797... any comment or insight on why I should have held on longer is appreciated... but as this the DAX thread consider it an interludium.

 

[rainman2]

I can understand that once you become aware of the flow of money, you gain a better understanding of WHY the market moves the way it does. Like I said in the previous post, at the first low we had a potential selling climax, which is where I think some are buying agressively and those who were shorts close their shorts later on, because price is moving up again. This in turn creates the "bounce" which is usually short-lived. Price is trying to find an equilibrium the next day by ranging in between two boundaries. They professionals need people to buy, so they sell into the weak hands and are holding the shorts when the second plunge begins.

I'm not sure I completely understand your question
"and what is the nature of the current move...is it purely fake...is it a shake...?"
This all depends on the time frame, what is "the current move", the plunge from 7050? the move today? On a bigger time scale, this looks like a much needed correction, which I said would happen a month ago (there you have my predicting skills lol).

hi fw,

what exactly does "potential selling climax mean"? is it pros covering, is it weak hands selling, is it pros covering and also buying? just because price rises does that mean the pros are making that rise happen or are they letting that rise happen to fake weak hands into buying? who's in control on that price rise (scalpers or swingers)?

potential selling/buying climax, unusual volume, good volume, higher highs, lower lows all sound and look good in hindsight but how does it help you understand and anticipate future price action.

thanks mr. marcus and keep forcing us to think. every question you ask makes me look at charts differently... not very often correctly mind you but differently

 

[dazshaw]

deleted

 

[firewalker99]

hi fw,

what exactly does "potential selling climax mean"? is it pros covering, is it weak hands selling, is it pros covering and also buying? just because price rises does that mean the pros are making that rise happen or are they letting that rise happen to fake weak hands into buying? who's in control on that price rise (scalpers or swingers)?

potential selling/buying climax, unusual volume, good volume, higher highs, lower lows all sound and look good in hindsight but how does it help you understand and anticipate future price action.

Hi rainman2, good to see you again!

Have to disagree though with what you're saying. A "potential selling climax" has nothing to do with hindsight . I've posted an example of a trade where I combined tape reading, price action and volume to identify a selling climax in real time which I bought. If I wasn't anticipating a price rise at that time I would not have bought. Obviously you can't call it a true selling climax until later on (that's why I said potential), but it has next to nothing to do with hindsight analysis:

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?p=314838#post314838

 

[dazshaw]

deleted

 

[logit]

Whether Marcus wants to take this further is up to him, as time is something that im sure he has little of, but i am genuinely amazed that there is no more interest in this thread other than a few posts. But as he said it has come to be expected

All the best

DS

I'm following it with interest, but to be honest as i'm just starting out, i don't think i'll have anything of use to contribute All I can say is, from a learning perspective it is extremely useful to read people's thoughts on what's going on, and having mr. marcus make us all think that bit deeper, really does increase ones understanding. I hope with a bit more time/learning i'll be able to usefully contribute as well.

 

[logit]

Come on everyone, why can't we all just get along? Honestly, i've never been on a forum before where there's as much bickering and over reaction as there's on T2W. Mr.Marcus, I know I definitely could learn something from you and I'm sure FW can as well, but I don't know what you want from us? I think what FW said was fair, though he may have come across a bit too strong I take it you won't be offering your insights on this thread, which at the end of the day, will be our loss. If you do decide to give your input, rest assured there are people here who are ready to listen and learn.

 

[texral]

Come on everyone, why can't we all just get along? Honestly, i've never been on a forum before where there's as much bickering and over reaction as there's on T2W. Mr.Marcus, I know I definitely could learn something from you and I'm sure FW can as well, but I don't know what you want from us? I think what FW said was fair, though he may have come across a bit too strong I take it you won't be offering your insights on this thread, which at the end of the day, will be our loss. If you do decide to give your input, rest assured there are people here who are ready to listen and learn.

You are very correct Logit.. there has been way too much bickering on these threads lately. But lets have a reality check here...Mr. Marcus has been incredibly generous with his time and has already shared a huge amount of information...I'm suprised but very thankful that so much of it has been made public. It certainly is not his job to spoon feed us the information as some on here expect. As to your question - I doubt he wants much from us at all, other than to think for ourselves. We should take what he has already given us and try to build on that... and show our gratitude if he decides to contribute in the future.

regards

 

[barjon]

I have deleted all the recent posts of a bickering nature in an attempt to bring this useful thread back to its topic. I have left the posts of logit and texral above since they help remind us that we should be trying to get along with each other and learn.

Please, please keep it constructive and free of personal rudeness. Thank you.

good trading

jon

 

[firewalker99]

I have deleted all the recent posts of a bickering nature in an attempt to bring this useful thread back to its topic. I have left the posts of logit and texral above since they help remind us that we should be trying to get along with each other and learn.

Please, please keep it constructive and free of personal rudeness. Thank you.

good trading

jon

Thank you.

 

[sandpiper]

I have deleted all the recent posts of a bickering nature in an attempt to bring this useful thread back to its topic. I have left the posts of logit and texral above since they help remind us that we should be trying to get along with each other and learn.

Please, please keep it constructive and free of personal rudeness. Thank you.

good trading

jon

Jon,

Thankyou

As I've said before, I appreciate the difficulty of the job at hand and I'm tempted to let sleeping dogs lie, but enough is enough. People described as having ADD simply because they ask others to think for themselves. Members advocating crucification of other members and being unchallenged. Bickering is not the term I would use to describe this or the (what I would consider) suitably measured response(s). At risk of deletion, I will repeat, because I must, that I find this behaviour odious. What astounds me is that many other members dont feel the same way.

I know it isn't my thread and there may be better locations to make the point (apologies to the thread originator for that) but I'm just tired of mediocrity and the way it is encouraged and nurtured in society at large and here on the board. I find it deeply saddening that members are increasingly recognised for their ability to argue the same point over and over and over again, or their seemingly endless supply of one-liners. At the same time other members whose contributions reflect a lifetime of experience, often learnt at great cost, are either shunned or worse, lost in subsequent pages of one liners and smilies, each one of which strikes a stake into the heart of free thinking, respectful, responsible conduct.

I suppose to a certain extent that we all end up with the board we collectively desire, but I just find the proposition that this current state is a true reflection of that desire too sad to contemplate. Is this really the best we can do? Seriously?

In closing I would suggest that sweet candy floss discussions aren't necessarily the answer to this boards woes. Sometimes people just need to get angry, to mobilise, to say enough really is enough. There is of course an alternative viewpoint, i.e. that this board, it's content, it's community, it's potential, really mean absolutely nothing at all. Maybe the board is after all just a portal, an advertising gateway, a billboard.