David Knight
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David Knight -Journal
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David Knight
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David Knight
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Closed 76 @80 + 4
running +64
Still hold 83
Will add lwr if it looks like its in that predicted range.
running +64
Still hold 83
Will add lwr if it looks like its in that predicted range.
David Knight
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Whenever I get a fairly quick profit it tends to favour being generally right in the overall plan/visualization of how it could play out, the path.
But the funny thing about the market is that while it's surprisingly predictable a lot of the time and very repetitive, you can't trust the damn thing one little bit....
(which is one reason why I banked some money and reduced exposure- the other being the fact that it will be easier to buy the bottom of the range knowing I've already banked some)
--- OTOH, almost everything is like that, from your car/computor to your ex wife
(not mine btw). So you'd think we'd be better prepared for trading wouldn't you?
EDIT
Will add lwr if it looks like its in that predicted range.
Forgot the chart showing that range
But the funny thing about the market is that while it's surprisingly predictable a lot of the time and very repetitive, you can't trust the damn thing one little bit....
(which is one reason why I banked some money and reduced exposure- the other being the fact that it will be easier to buy the bottom of the range knowing I've already banked some)
--- OTOH, almost everything is like that, from your car/computor to your ex wife
(not mine btw). So you'd think we'd be better prepared for trading wouldn't you? EDIT
Will add lwr if it looks like its in that predicted range.
Forgot the chart showing that range
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David Knight
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I'm getting out of 2583 @ 76 -7
Running +57
Will Buy lwr
There maybe more to come in this retracement. Overnight session range is 79-66
I'd prefer to buy 66 and be able to add from there, rather than having 83 possibly trapped and getting a lot worse. Can easily make back the 7 pts.( I made 4 pts yesterday to offset this loss.)
Follow what the market indicates.Trade, be happy, stress will kill you.
Running +57
Will Buy lwr
There maybe more to come in this retracement. Overnight session range is 79-66
I'd prefer to buy 66 and be able to add from there, rather than having 83 possibly trapped and getting a lot worse. Can easily make back the 7 pts.( I made 4 pts yesterday to offset this loss.)
Follow what the market indicates.Trade, be happy, stress will kill you.
David Knight
Established member
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David Knight
Established member
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- 946
- Likes
- 213
David Knight
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- 946
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David Knight
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Well, this repeating pattern we've been watching could actually be playing out again. It could be that the sideways part is happening today because the preceding abc is now larger
This would fit with the fact that adv/decl was 1-2 but it is moving towards the bulls. That again, reiterates that it's less likely a heavy selling day.
That would mean the bulls could sctually prevent the market closing that gap today (2560.4) which would frustrate a lot of traders - both shorts aiming for the gap and buyers waiting down there.. Anything that screws both sides is always on the table.
Will add chart showing pattern.
BTW- Why did my target change as advised? Simple- momentum
Remember you cannot rely on this sort of stuff (patterns).It's incredibly hard to build a trading style with this imo (For some it wouldn't be impossible though)
This would fit with the fact that adv/decl was 1-2 but it is moving towards the bulls. That again, reiterates that it's less likely a heavy selling day.
That would mean the bulls could sctually prevent the market closing that gap today (2560.4) which would frustrate a lot of traders - both shorts aiming for the gap and buyers waiting down there.. Anything that screws both sides is always on the table.
Will add chart showing pattern.
BTW- Why did my target change as advised? Simple- momentum
Remember you cannot rely on this sort of stuff (patterns).It's incredibly hard to build a trading style with this imo (For some it wouldn't be impossible though)
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David Knight
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David Knight
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David Knight
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There is only approx a 30% chance that Friday will close in the red. And all closes in the red on a Friday this year have been only 3-4 points down.
So, I'm looking to BUY one more dip today and hold until Friday morning at least.
Failing that I will BUY as close to the closing price today as possible if we close down.
I just think those gaps will remain unfilled until next week.
EDIT
Looking to buy 75
So, I'm looking to BUY one more dip today and hold until Friday morning at least.
Failing that I will BUY as close to the closing price today as possible if we close down.
I just think those gaps will remain unfilled until next week.
EDIT
Looking to buy 75
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David Knight
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David Knight
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I planned for 75 .Didn't look like it was getting there. Just wanted to buy under weds close (79.3) and hope fri close is above todays close (79.8) or at least get some points early fri if the market gaps up again.
If fri closes only 3-4 points down as the stats suggest (see post #192) then 76 long is ok
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David Knight
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There was a chance to exit near the overnight high 2584 Market has opened 2 pts short of that and is heading down.
Should I have taken profits before the open?
Because the overnight low did not even drop below the close yesterday and 66 was the low, I figured we would match or exceed the overnight high FIRST.
(we may still be looking at a high first that didn't get to 84)
If overnight futures are higher it suggests an up day.
But all that matters (since everything is a balance of probabilities) is what is the safest plan for me bearing in mind that I'm holding 76 from yesterday?
1-Hold.
2-Rotate, ie say buy 70 and get out of 76 at B/E
3-Hold both 70 and 76
What's the take away point here?
The market dictates what action is appropriate. And that action is based on whether you are currently in a long/short/flat position.
You can further reduce the above paragraph to one word:
Opportunity.
Should I have taken profits before the open?
Because the overnight low did not even drop below the close yesterday and 66 was the low, I figured we would match or exceed the overnight high FIRST.
(we may still be looking at a high first that didn't get to 84)
If overnight futures are higher it suggests an up day.
But all that matters (since everything is a balance of probabilities) is what is the safest plan for me bearing in mind that I'm holding 76 from yesterday?
1-Hold.
2-Rotate, ie say buy 70 and get out of 76 at B/E
3-Hold both 70 and 76
What's the take away point here?
The market dictates what action is appropriate. And that action is based on whether you are currently in a long/short/flat position.
You can further reduce the above paragraph to one word:
Opportunity.
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David Knight
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David Knight
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I've been pm'd a question re the charts on page 22 post #172. (questions are welcome in this journal or pm if you prefer to be anon)
Can you just clarify on Post 172 when you substitute the h/l for horizontal lines the following =
1) why have you ignored the first 6 days and concentrated on the last 4 I can see that the high/high and low/low were within that period
The charts here answer (hopefully) that question.
I'll just just say that trading (for me) is not an auto pilot business. In the same way that a Formula One driver wouldn't be interested in a self driving car even if it guaranteed him the championship.
If that statement makes absolutely no sense to you then bear in mind what I wrote in post # 1
So, in other words, I'm in the trading as being part science part art camp
Because everybody knows (?), if you want to out perform you have to question everything, Break rules .Be comfortable with it. Same as we have to be comfortable with risk.
So when it comes to charts everybody gets to see lots of them and frankly, we all know, that most people's charts suck.
Comon, lets call a duck a duck they suck real bad. For whatever reason.
Right now, somebody is looking at my charts thinking OMG this guy hasn't got a clue. Where the fck are all the squiggly lines ffs? Has he never even heard of an indicator?
Must be a complete beginner. Obviously doesn't know things look much nicer in lime green and purple with 50,000 lines plastered everywhere.
So the bottom line is I like my charts and mostly hate everybody else's. It was a real nightmare when I was a beginner. But then it always is, one way or another.
Can a really good trader trade without a chart?
Can a really good pilot fly the plane if the autopilot fails?
So the short answer to the question is;
If I haven't drawn a line it's because there is no need to, there is no advantage in it. It would just be clutter..
"Perfection is achieved, not when there is nothing more to add, but when there is nothing left to take away." - Antoine de Saint-Exupery
Has a nicer ring to it than Keep it simple stupid..
“Nothing in this world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not; the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent. The slogan Press On! has solved and always will solve the problems of the human race."
Calvin Coolidge
Wrong
Overnight range is roughly same as friday cash session= no new information
Can you just clarify on Post 172 when you substitute the h/l for horizontal lines the following =
1) why have you ignored the first 6 days and concentrated on the last 4 I can see that the high/high and low/low were within that period
The charts here answer (hopefully) that question.
I'll just just say that trading (for me) is not an auto pilot business. In the same way that a Formula One driver wouldn't be interested in a self driving car even if it guaranteed him the championship.
If that statement makes absolutely no sense to you then bear in mind what I wrote in post # 1
So, in other words, I'm in the trading as being part science part art camp
Because everybody knows (?), if you want to out perform you have to question everything, Break rules .Be comfortable with it. Same as we have to be comfortable with risk.
So when it comes to charts everybody gets to see lots of them and frankly, we all know, that most people's charts suck.
Comon, lets call a duck a duck they suck real bad. For whatever reason.
Right now, somebody is looking at my charts thinking OMG this guy hasn't got a clue. Where the fck are all the squiggly lines ffs? Has he never even heard of an indicator?
Must be a complete beginner. Obviously doesn't know things look much nicer in lime green and purple with 50,000 lines plastered everywhere.
So the bottom line is I like my charts and mostly hate everybody else's. It was a real nightmare when I was a beginner. But then it always is, one way or another.
Can a really good trader trade without a chart?
Can a really good pilot fly the plane if the autopilot fails?
So the short answer to the question is;
If I haven't drawn a line it's because there is no need to, there is no advantage in it. It would just be clutter..
"Perfection is achieved, not when there is nothing more to add, but when there is nothing left to take away." - Antoine de Saint-Exupery
Has a nicer ring to it than Keep it simple stupid..
“Nothing in this world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not; the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent. The slogan Press On! has solved and always will solve the problems of the human race."
Calvin Coolidge
Wrong
Overnight range is roughly same as friday cash session= no new information
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David Knight
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David Knight
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I'm buying 88 because
1- it's a hard trade to make (less crowded?)
2- adv decl favours bulls ( will post chart in a minute)
3- If we close up from fri close 87.8 i'm all good
4- happy to add lower
5- Don't want to chase a possible gap and go day or wait until it pulls back to my current entry price
6-Can only be problem if 88 is a top and there is a hard drop- is it likely?
7-Lots of possible support levels below, rather than clean air..
Overall, makes sense.
1- it's a hard trade to make (less crowded?)
2- adv decl favours bulls ( will post chart in a minute)
3- If we close up from fri close 87.8 i'm all good
4- happy to add lower
5- Don't want to chase a possible gap and go day or wait until it pulls back to my current entry price
6-Can only be problem if 88 is a top and there is a hard drop- is it likely?
7-Lots of possible support levels below, rather than clean air..
Overall, makes sense.
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