Daily Market Updates & Trading Signals By Option Banque

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FTSE Market Outlook by Option Banque

British Shares Slide As Oil And Banks Decline – Put Options The Strong Favourite

U.K. stocks turned lower in the afternoon session on Tuesday. After opening 0.6% higher following the positive sentiment resulting from the Clinton victory over rival Donald Trump in the first presidential debate, the FTSE 100 index reversed lower under the pressure of a decline in bank shares and falling oil prices.

Crude oil prices continued to plunge after OPEC’s major members Iran and Saudi Arabia said that the meeting between OPEC members and other heavyweight producers such as Russia in Algiers this week is only “consultative”. Both countries played down expectations for an output freeze deal at the closely watched informal meeting on Wednesday, shifting expectations towards the formal OPEC meeting scheduled for November.

The index is on track for a third straight session of declines. Shares of oil majors BP PLC were down 0.65% and Royal Dutch Shell PLC RDS “A” and RDS “B” slid 1.88% and 1.90%, respectively.

Meanwhile, bank shares declined in sympathy with a drop in Deutsche Bank and other financial companies over in the European markets. Shares of Royal Bank of Scotland PLC plummeted 3.04%, with investors fearing that it may also face a penalty of as much as £9 billion ahead of settlement talks over issues similar to those involving Deutsche.

Like other major British lenders, RBS has faced lower revenue from lending after the Bank of England slashed interest rates in August in the wake of Britain’s vote to leave the EU on June 23. The bank said last month it would probably take longer than expected to reach the profitability targets set previously.

Other banking stocks experienced a similar rout. Shares of Barclays PLC were off 2.05%, and Lloyds Banking Group PLC shed 0.3%. Meanwhile, HSBC Holdings Plc rebounded 1.4 percent, registering its first advance in the last four trading days.

Wolseley PLC shares topped the list of losers today, falling nearly 4.0% after the company reported full-year profits that slightly missed expectations. The plumbing products and building materials distributor also stated that it expects to close about 80 branches. Up to 800 jobs will be lost as part of the restructuring.

The best performer on FTSE 100 index is Carnival Corp. The cruise-line operator reported the strongest quarterly earnings in its history on Monday and also raised its earnings per share projection for the fiscal year ending in November to a range between $3.33 to $3.37, compared with its previous forecast of $3.25 to $3.35.

Fig: FTSE H4 Technical Chart

FTSE has collapsed since last Friday, but the index has been vacillating strongly instead of nose-diving. However, the ADX index has slumped to below 20 – the level that confirms a trend being formed. The downside pressure seems strong as the price action has penetrated the two moving averages from above, and is currently placed below both the MA’s. The RSI index has slid to 39.33, which adds further weight to the weakness in prices and the possibility of further declines.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Put Option from 6765.00 to 4740.00 valid until 20:00 GMT September 27,

 

[Option_Banque]

EURCAD Trading Signal On September 28, 2016 by Option Banque

EURCAD Trading Signal On September 28, 2016

Buy Digital Call Option from 1.48180 to 1.48700 valid until 21:00 GMT September 28, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily Report on September 28, 2016 by Option Banque


Daily Report on September 28, 2016



Crude prices slumped on Wednesday as investor worries were reignited over no agreement being reached regarding an output cap or a new output ceiling between oil producers at the informal meeting between major producers in Algiers, that ends later today. News that Iran rejected an offer from Saudi Arabia to limit its oil output in exchange for Riyadh cutting supply outweighed data from API which showed a surprise draw-down in U.S. crude stocks.

The American Petroleum Institute reported that crude oil stocks dropped by 752,000 barrels in the week ended Sept. 23rd, to 506.4 million barrels, compared to analyst estimates for a 2.8 million-barrel build.

In an interview at his bank's headquarters on Tuesday, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams stated that the Fed can raise interest rates without restraining the U.S. economic recovery, and that the central bank risks causing more harm by keeping rates too low for too long. "There are risks to pushing things too far”, he said.

In its monthly report on Tuesday, market research group the Conference Board indicated that U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly jumped in September to a more than nine-year high. The gauge of consumer confidence surprisingly increased to 104.1 this month from a reading of 101.8 in August. This month’s reading was its highest level since August 2007.

Meanwhile, China's economy is expected to grow at an annual pace of 6.6 percent in the fourth quarter this year, the China Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) said. CASS also forecast an overall growth of 6.7 percent for the full year, which was in line with the government's own full-year forecasts of 6.5-7 percent growth.



Technicals

EURUSD



Fig: EURUSD H4 Technical Chart

EURUSD fell off from over one-week highs at 1.12785 and is sliding back towards the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.11891. As can be seen from the price chart, the price has broken out of the recently formed ascending trading range and at the same time moved past the MA50. The support at the 23.6% level is within sight but is much likely to be broken through, especially with a market that has already entered the bearish territory.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 1.11890 to 1.11500 valid until 20:00 GMT September 28, 2016



USDCAD



Fig: USDCAD H4 Technical Chart

USDCAD has been swinging between gains and losses around the major level 1.32000 since the start of this week. In general, the USDCAD market remains in a bullish setup with the RSI currently above the 50 line while the two moving averages are placed below the price action and supporting the up moves.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 1.32200 to 1.32800 valid until 20:00 GMT September 28, 2016



GBPAUD



Fig: GBPAUD H4 Technical Chart

The British Pound is steadily losing ground again the Australian dollar but the pace of declines is becoming slower. However, sellers are expected to continue to overwhelm the market as the stochastic chart has not shown any sign of a pullback yet. Both MA's are placed above the price action which is creating further overhead pressure for the market. In the event of a continual downfall, the support at 1.68700 is within the sight and likely to be tested.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 1.69300 to 1.68700 valid until 20:00 GMT September 28, 2016



WTI



Fig: WTI H4 Technical Chart

U.S light, sweet crude has been swinging back and forth between the support at 44.50 and the resistance created by the trendline connecting higher highs since August 19. The price bounced back again after hitting the support line but is heading downwards back to this handle and is expected to make a breakout as the two MAs have converged above the price action. The Relative Strength Index which is below 50 also confirmed a bearish tone in the market.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 44.50 to 43.85 valid until 20:00 GMT September 28, 2016



SILVER



Fig: SILVER H4 Technical Chart

Silver seems to be completing the double top pattern after reversing lower from the two-week high at 20.046. The price is around the neck level and may fall deeper as the short-term MA20 has penetrated the long-term MA50 from above. Additionally, ADX has soared higher to a level of 39.22, suggesting further declines.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 19.960 to 18.765 valid until 20:00 GMT September 28, 2016



NASDAQ



Fig: NASDAQ H4 Technical Chart

In general, the Nasdaq 100 index has been in an uptrend. The price has never fallen below the short-term MA20 or the long-term MA50 since mid-September, and is heading for the record high at 4894.81 created last Thursday. The index is anticipated to retest this level but it still seems uncertain whether the price can set a new record as the market has remained close to or within the overbought territory. A pullback may be expected.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 4875.00 to 4894.81 valid until 20:00 GMT September 28, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

SP500 Trade Idea by Option Banque

SP500 Down Before Yellen Testimony And Cluster Of Fed Speakers – Traders Can Buy Put Options

U.S. stocks drifted lower after early gains on Wednesday as investors were cautiously watching Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s testimony before the House Financial Services Committee and waiting for the six other Fed speakers that are scheduled to speak later today.

Adding to the downside pressure present in the markets at the moment, oil fell for a second trading day as traders expect to see the three-day meeting in Algeria ending with no deal being reached to freeze/control global crude oil output

At the time of writing, all 11 sectors making up the S&P 500 index ticked lower, led by telecoms and utilities. These two sectors posted the biggest losses amongst all sectors and lost more than 1% each. Energy shares were tracking oil prices lower, giving up earlier gains and trading in negative territory.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Put Options from 2150.00 to 2145.00 valid until 20:00 GMT September 28, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Gold Market Outlook by Option Banque

Gold Beleaguered By Rising Dollar And Stocks – Put Options Look Promising

Gold fluctuated in a thin range in European afternoon trading hours on Wednesday. The metal was held around one-week lows as the dollar firmed up and stocks jumped in the wake of a pickup in shares of Germany’s largest lender Deutsche Bank AG and rising crude prices.

Gold lost some of its safe-haven appeal as European equities advanced for the first time in four days, after Deutsche Bank agreed to sell its Abbey Life insurance business to Phoenix Group for €1.09bn. The deal may give a small boost to the bank’s fortunes, coming at a time when the U.S Department of Justice has demanded $14 billion from Deutsche to settle an investigation into its selling of mortgage-backed securities prior to the sub-prime crisis, and the suspected role of these dealings in triggering the financial crisis in 2008.

The German bank’s shares were further supported by statements from its Chief Executive Officer John Cryan who had ruled out a capital increase on Tuesday amidst concerns that the bank may be forced to raise capital to meet mounting legal costs. Raising more capital would dilute the holdings of existing shareholders and drive down prices.

Crude oil prices also ascended in the European session despite an assumption that no deal or agreement on capping output can be reached in the informal meeting between OPEC and non-OPEC producers which is scheduled to begin at 14:00 GMT today. Hopes have shifted to the official OPEC meeting in November, given Iran’s refusal of Saudi Arabia’s offer and the desire of Libya and Nigeria to ramp up their output after political turmoil.

Gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation which can be ignited by rising energy prices that can have a spillover effect within the overall economic system. To assess the crude supply situation further, traders are awaiting the official weekly U.S. inventory data due to be released later on Wednesday by the Energy Information Administration. Analysts expect the report to show a rise in domestic crude stockpiles last week, while the API reported a 752,000-barrel drop in crude supplies for the week ended Sept. 23.
The U.S dollar index was up nearly 0.1 percent against a basket of six major currencies, making gold more expensive for buyers holding other currencies. Fed Chair Janet Yellen will give her semi-annual testimony before a Congressional committee at 15:00 GMT today. Other Fed officials such as Cleveland Fed President Mester and Kansas City Fed President George will be speaking on the economy and monetary policy at separate events later in the day today.

Holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, dropped by 0.22 percent to 949.14 tons on Tuesday.

Fig: GOLD H4 Technical Chart

Gold is swinging around the support at 1325.00 after breaking through the trading range from 1333.60 to 1342.00. The precious metal is up against a strong zone of support, which is the long-term MA50 following a breakout below the short-term MA20 yesterday. The downside is getting stronger with a wide gap between the –DI and +DI lines, which has spurred a rise in the ADX index. Gold may decline further to test the 23.6% retracement level at 1319.36.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Put Option from 1325.00 to 1320.00 valid until 20:00 GMT September 28, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

NZDUSD Signal by Option Banque

NZDUSD Trading Signal On September 29, 2016

Buy Digital Call Option from 0.73000 to 0.73300 valid until 21:00 GMT September 29, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily Report on September 29, 2016 by Option Banque


Daily Report on September 29, 2016



Asian shares rallied on Thursday, taking their cue from the Wall Street overnight that finished higher after OPEC members reached an agreement on a production-limiting deal. The Dow Jones rose 0.61 percent, to 18,339.24, the S&P 500 gained 0.53 percent, to 2,171.37 and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.24 percent, to 5,318.55.

Stocks were boosted by surging oil prices following an unexpectedly decision by major oil producers to cut crude production for the first time since 2008. Crude production will possibly be curbed by about 750,000 barrels per day. The details over country-by-country production is to be decided at the next formal OPEC meeting in November.

The news came after the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration’s data showed that U.S. crude stocks lost 1.9 million barrels to 502.7 million barrels in the week to Sept. 23. Inventories had been expected to rebound after the big drop in previous weeks. However, the EIA continued to surprise the market by reporting unexpected supply declines for four weeks in a row.

Elsewhere, data from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry on Thursday indicated that Japan's retail sales fell more than expected in August. Japanese retail sales retreated by 2.1 percent in August from a year earlier, due to a stronger Yen and slow wage growth that discouraged spending on clothes and home appliances. The figures have shown worse results than forecast for the sixth straight month, casting pressure on policymakers to find ways of beefing up household spending.



Technicals

USDCAD



Fig: USDCAD H4 Technical Chart

Having falling more than 220 pips from the peak in the last six months, USDCAD bounced back as bear has exhausted after sending market into oversold state. Since the start of September, the pair had been in an uptrend, forming higher highs and higher lows, combined with turning the resistance at 1.31400 into a firm support. USD, however, fell back under this level yesterday and is expected to extend the downfall to the 23.6% retracement at 1.29857.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 1.30500 to 1.30000 valid 20:00 GMT September 29, 2016



USDJPY



Fig: USDJPY H4 Technical Chart

USD has breached the near-term resistance at 101.200 versus the JPY. The pair also moved past the 50-period moving average at 101.050, confirming the uptrend after it broke above the MA20. However, the upside seems limited as the downtrend line that has connected lower highs is within the sight.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 101.950 to 101.200 valid until 20:00 GMT September 29, 2016



USDNOK



Fig: USDNOK H4 Technical Chart

The Norwegian Krone has escaped from the range between 8.09000 and 8.15000, and hit nearly five-month highs at around 8.01771. However, the pair is being held around this level as it has fallen into another consolidation period. As can be seen from the RSI indicator chart, USDNOK is trading in the oversold territory. That helps explain current corrective moves. The pair is expected to extend the slide then.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 8.01770 to 7.96900 valid until 20:00 GMT September 29, 2016



BRENT



Fig: BRENT H4 Technical Chart

Brent has been retreating from the highest level in three weeks at 49.07. The price reversed lower as a result of profit-taking after the market had been overblown and entered the overbought zone. Furthermore, the downward trendline connecting lower lows since August 19 also acted as a firm resistance. Nonetheless, this handle is much likely to be broken through as MAs and parabolic sar band placed below the action are supporting upbeat moves.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 48.20 to 49.35 valid until 20:00 GMT September 29, 2016



WHEAT



Fig: WHEAT H4 Technical Chart

Wheat futures contract resumed the rally today, following a retreat on Wednesday. The price action has been twisted with the moving averages, showing a period of sideways generally. As the short-term MA has converged with the long-term MA, and the RSI index is pointing upwards from 50 threshold, the commodity may re-attempt one week high at 410.10.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 407.00 to 410.00 valid until 20:00 GMT September 29, 2016



DAX



Fig: DAX H4 Technical Chart

German’ DAX 30 index has been paring all of its losses in the last one week and heading upwards to two-week highs around 10700.00 recorded last Thursday. From near oversold zone, the DAX market has entered bullish territory with RSI surpassing the 50 line. Besides, ADX index that has soared to 26.36, coupled with the wide gap between the +DI and –DI lines, consolidated prolonged rally.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 10600.00 to 10700.00 valid until 20:00 GMT September 29, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

PepsiCo Market Outlook by Option Banque

PepsiCo Reports Strong Results, Upgrades Outlook – Call Options Attractive

Shares of PepsiCo Inc. jumped more than 3.0% in premarket trade on Thursday. Despite sliding revenue, the New York-based company reported much-better-than-anticipated results and raised its earnings forecast for the full year before the market open.

The beverage and snack giant’s fiscal third-quarter net earnings rose to $1.99 billion, or $1.37 a share, from $533 million, or 36 cents a share, in the same period a year ago. Results in the same quarter last year were dented by a $1.36 billion impairment charge related to its Venezuelan de-consolidation. The markets had expected earnings of $1.32 a share.

PepsiCo reported that revenue declined to $16.03 billion from $16.33 billion, which still beat the $15.83 billion revenue target projected by analysts. A strong dollar continued to weigh on results abroad, leading to declining sales in its Quaker Foods unit in North America, Latin America, Asia, Middle East and North Africa. Excluding the effects of weakening foreign currencies, the company’s revenue grew at a pace of 4.2% last quarter, with sales reaching $16 billion, topping the estimates calling for $15.8 billion.

It were PepsiCo’s North American beverage and Frito-Lay divisions that boosted the company’s results in the quarter, coupled with cost-cutting measures that have sustained profitability.

Looking ahead, the world’s largest snack and beverage maker raised its earnings forecast, expecting full-year core earnings per share of $4.78, compared with a previous forecast for $4.71.

Fig: PepsiCo D1 Technical Chart

PepsiCo shares have been stuck between the resistance at 107.80 and the support at 106.74 (which is also the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level) since last Thursday. Basically, investors buying into the company’s stocks still outweigh the sellers as the market still remains in the overbought zone. While the RSI is currently above 50, DMA20 and DMA50 are currently placed below the price action, suggesting further up-moves.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Options from 107.80 to 110.50 valid until 20:00 GMT September 29. 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Natural Gas Trade Idea By Option Banque

Natural Gas Falls Despite Supportive Inventory Data – Buying Put Options A Good Strategy

Natural gas prices extended losses on Thursday, even after the weekly report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed supplies in storage in the U.S. rose less than expected last week.

The EIA said stockpiles rose by 49 billion cubic feet last week, to 3.6 trillion cubic feet, up 90 billion cubic feet from a year ago and 220 billion cubic feet above the five-year average. Analysts had expected that stockpiles would grow by 57 billion cubic feet.

Still, prices ticked down amid expectations that cooler weather in the coming weeks will result in more tepid demand for electricity for air conditioning, while winter demand for heating may not kick in right away.

Trade suggestion
Buy Put Option from to valid until 20:00 GMT September 29, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily Report on September 30, 2016 by Option Banque

Daily Report on September 30, 2016

Global stocks tumbled on the last trading day of September, denting quarterly gains as bank stocks led losses on worries over Germany's largest lender Deutsche Bank. Most Asian indexes receded while European benchmarks opened lower on Friday.

Deutsche Bank shares hit a new record low, shedding nearly 7% following news that about 10 hedge funds doing business with Deutsche Bank have moved part of their listed derivatives holdings to other firms this week. Those are among the biggest clients of the bank, including Izzy Englander’s $34 billion Millennium Partners, and the $14 billion Capula Investment Management.

According to data released by the Federal Statistical Office Destatis, on Friday, German retail sales, adjusted for inflation and seasonal swings, slipped by 0.4% in August from the previous month. However, sales volume adjusted for inflation were still sharply higher than in August 2015 thanks to an extra day of sale.

The U.S. economy expanded at a 1.4 percent annualized rate in the second quarter, compared with a prior estimate of 1.1 percent, Commerce Department figures showed on Thursday. The U.S gross domestic product rose by more than the 1.1% growth rate expected. GDP growth was helped by household consumption which made up for tepid business investment and lackluster demand from overseas. Consumer spending is expected to continue to drive growth in the third quarter, considering recently robust hiring and nascent wage gains.



Technicals

AUDUSD



Fig: AUDUSD H4 Technical Chart

AUDUSD has fallen out of the support at 0.76140 which coincides with the 23.6% retracement level. The pair has broken below the long-term MA50, which suggests further down moves after the short-term MA20 had been crossed over. Long lower shadows in the current and recent candles show that buyers are buying dips, but this bullish force is anticipated to weaken once the pair hits the 23.6% level again.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 0.76140 to 0.75650 valid until 20:00 GMT September 30, 2016



EURUSD



Fig: EURUSD H4 Technical Chart

Euro fell to a one-week trough against the USD. The pair lost more than 50 pips from the resistance at 1.12200, after a period of time swinging back and forth around this level. The steep decline brought the currency pair below the 38.2% retracement level at 1.11891. The break lower continues to keep the market in bearish territory, as the price action has broken below both the MA's which are now placed above the price action.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 1.11750 to 1.11500 valid until 20:00 GMT September 30, 2016



EURCAD



Fig: EURCAD H4 Technical Chart

EURCAD resumed its downtrend after failing at the resistance zone marked by the two moving averages near the 1.47500 level. Long upper shadows of the recent candles indicate a strong bearish force that has restrained the pair from surging higher. Since RSI is below 50, sellers are foreseen to continue to drive the market lower. The near-term target is at the 23.6% support at 1.46334.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 1.47050 to 1.46334 valid until 20:00 GMT September 30, 2016



SILVER



Fig: SILVER H4 Technical Chart

Silver bounced back from the support at 18.960 again. After having moved past the 20-period MA, the metal is up against the next level of resistance that is the 50-period moving average at 19.265, which may be a tough zone to break through. As can be seen from the stochastics, both %K line and %D line have surpassed the average level and are heading upwards. A breakout beyond the 23.6% level is expected.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 19.370 to 19.630 valid until 20:00 GMT September 30, 2016



Natural gas



Fig: Natural gas H4 Technical Chart

Natural gas bounced back from the major support level at 2.935 after dropping more than 7% from the highest at 3.163 since mid-May, 2015. The steady downtrend has sent the market into the oversold zone which has led to some corrective moves. With the MA20 penetrating the MA50 from above, the commodity is expected to resume its slide and break below the current support zone.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 2.930 to 2.875 valid until 20:00 GMT September 30, 2016



FTSE



Fig: FTSE H4 Technical Chart

U.K’s FTSE 100 index created a small gap down on the open today and slid to as low as 6810.00 before rebounding to cover the gap. In spite of recent up-moves, the stochastic index keeps receding coupled with a large distance between the %K line and the %D line. Adding to the signals indicating further downside, the parabolic sar band has just changed its direction and has crossed above the price action.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 6880.00 to 6810.00 valid until 20:00 GMT September 30, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

GBPJPY Trading Signal On September 30, 2016 by Option Banque

GBPJPY Trading Signal On September 30, 2016

Buy Digital Put Option from 130.650 to 130.300 valid until 21:00 GMT September 29, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

USDCAD Market Outlook by Option Banque

CAD Ticks Up, Tracking Rising Oil Prices And Upbeat Economic Data

Canadian Dollar looked set to finish the week higher against the greenback as oil pared early losses and GDP data released by Statistics Canada beat estimates.

With no data coming out until Friday, the Loonie has taken its cue from oil prices for most of this week. In general, the pair USDCAD has been in a bearish mood after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries reached a preliminary accord to reduce production on Wednesday, not to mention prolonged decline in U.S crude inventories.

Although the deal will not be finalized until the formal meeting of OPEC members on November 30th, oil is trading around three-week highs amid prospects that OPEC would re-establish an output ceiling in the range of 32.5-33.0 million bpd. This was the first time that the cartel reached an output freeze agreement since 2008.

Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said on Friday that Russia will find mechanisms and instruments needed to freeze oil production should the country reach an agreement with the OPEC on limiting output.
Speaking on the sidelines of a business forum in the Black Sea resort of Sochi, Minister Novak also stated that a delegation from Iran’s energy ministry will visit Russia in October-November to present potential oil deals to Russian companies.

Adding to the support for the Canadian dollar, Statistics Canada from Ottawa announced that the country’s gross domestic product expanded by 0.5% in July from the prior month. The pace of growth was faster than expected, led by a 5% increase in the energy industry.

However, the economy is still facing challenges on its way to recovery after the slump in commodity prices, retail sales, the slowdown in manufacturing sales and an increasing unemployment rate. Today’s report marks the first time that Canada’s GDP has grown for two consecutive months since the start of this year. Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz said on Monday that it would take three to five years for the economy to entirely recover.

In the U.S, consumer spending was little changed in August, data from the Commerce Department showed on Friday. Household purchases stood still for the first time since January, following a run of strong gains in previous months, as income grew at the slowest pace since February.

The Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation gauge picked up in August. The measure of inflation based on personal consumption expenditure rose 0.1% from the previous month, which was in line with expectations. On a yearly basis, the PCE index was up 1 percent. The core prices measure, which strips out food and fuel, increased 0.2% compared to July and inched up by1.7 percent compared to August 2015, but still remaining under the Fed’s 2 percent goal since 2012.

Investors are eyeing additional economic reports due later in the day including Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations for September by University of Michigan.

The U.S dollar retreated a little after surging earlier on Friday as investors flocked into safe-haven assets to hedge against risks caused by the Deutsche Bank case. However, global markets seem to have stabilized after the U.S session has gotten underway. The German bank’s U.S.-listed shares were up nearly 5% in pre-market trading, after collapsing on Thursday, helping ease the panic driven sentiment in the market.

Fig: USDCAD H4 Technical Chart

USDCAD bounced back from the support formed by connecting high lows since September 07. However, the downtrend is expected to resume soon as sellers are overshadowing the market, which has been visible in the long upper shadows of recent candles. A breakout is much likely to show up today as the two MAs are placed above the price action, combined with the stochastic lines that are heading downwards.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Put Option from 1.30850 to 1.30300 valid until 20:00 GMT September 30, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Copper Trade Idea by Option Banque

Copper Boosted By Rising Demand, Posing Biggest One-Month Rise

Copper rose to the highest since August 02, heading for the biggest monthly gains in 18 months as skepticism about an oversupply market has abated on rising demand for the red commodity.

Copper pared early losses to climb to as high as $2.2180/lb after research firm IHS Markit Ltd. said Friday that China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI surged to 50.1 in September from 50.0 in the prior month. The gauge of Chinese factory activity has remained above 50 for the third straight month, indicating that manufacturing sector continued to improve.

On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, total positions, mostly closed by shorts, reduced 13,198 to 125,000 ahead of China’s National Day Holiday which is also called “Golden Week” next week.

Copper inventories tracked by the London Metal Exchange dropped by 6,950 tons on Thursday, the biggest daily drop since late July.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option from 2.2110 to 2.2180 valid until 20:00 GMT October 3, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily Report on October 03, 2016

Daily Report on October 03, 2016



Asian stocks climbed on Monday as risk sentiment was boosted by easing of concerns about Deutsche Bank AG’s finances after the lender had been reported to negotiate a much lower settlement with the U.S Department of Justice than the initial claim. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan inched 0.8% percent higher following its best quarterly performance since early 2012.

Brexit angst continued to weigh on the British Pound. The Sterling created a wide gap down on the opening after British Prime Minister Theresa May said on Sunday that she would trigger the process of negotiating the UK's exit from the EU by the end of March. The pair GBPUSD hit the lowest since August 16 at $1.29162 in early Asian trading in thin liquidity.

The Bank of Japan released its tankan survey of business sentiment, early on Monday. The survey indicated that large Japanese manufacturer sentiment remained flat in the past three months while non-manufacturing business sentiment slipped to its lowest in nearly two years. The gauge for confidence among big manufacturers stood at plus 6 in September, unchanged from three months ago. The index missed a median market forecast of plus 7.

Sentiment among large companies in the service sector hit the lowest level since December 2014 at plus 18, falling for three straight quarters as a result of typhoons and a slowdown in spending by foreign tourists stemming from a strong yen.

However, Japanese firms' appetite for capital spending remained resilient. Big firms plan to raise capital spending by 6.3 percent for this fiscal year, from year-before levels, basing their business plans on the assumption that the dollar would average 107.92 yen for the fiscal year through March 2017, down from 111.41 yen forecast three months ago.

Markets in China, Australia, Germany, Malaysia and South Korea are shut due to local holidays on Monday.



Technicals

USDJPY



Fig: USDJPY H4 Technical Chart

USDJPY has been moving in a thin range since it breached the resistance at 101.200 as the pair is facing strong resistance from the descending trendline connecting lower highs since the start of September. The long upper shadow of recent candles indicates attempts by buyers to push the price higher but sellers have jumped in every time and snapped any rally. With the %K line having crossed over the %D line from above, the pair may fall back below the 101.200 level.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 101.150 to 100.850 valid until 20:00 GMT October 03, 2016



NZDUSD



Fig: NZDUSD H4 Technical Chart

NZDUSD has been moving sideways to lower since a steep slide on September 22. The pair is moving in the range between the support at 0.72200 and the resistance at 0.72900. As can be seen on the chart, lower lows and lower highs are being formed, indicating strengthening bears. Stochastic lines pointing down are consolidating the downtrend. The price action has broken below both the MA's which are now placed above the price action and adding further downside momentum.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 0.72500 to 0.72200 valid until 20:00 GMT October 03, 2016



CADJPY



Fig: CADJPY H4 Technical Chart

CADJPY has been on a rise since it rebounded from over four-year lows at 75.384. The two moving averages which acted as resistance through most of September have turned into dynamic supports that supported prices to reverse higher last Friday. The short-term MA20 has converged with the long-term MA50 from below, suggesting further up moves.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 77.350 to 77.825 valid until 20:00 GMT October 03, 2016



GOLD



Fig: GOLD H4 Technical Chart

Gold has been trading sideways under the 23.6% retracement level at 1319.40 since it broke below this level on Friday. The yellow metal failed to surge above this handle in early Asian trading hours and had to retreat and head down towards the multi-month lows at 1302.00 recorded at the start of September. With the two MAs placed above the price action and RSI remaining below 50, Gold is expected to fall deeper.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 1314.00 to 1308.90 valid until 20:00 GMT October 03, 2016



WTI



Fig: WTI H4 Technical Chart

U.S crude prices seemed to resume the uptrend after a brief correction from one-month highs at 48.30. The wide gap between the short-term and long-term moving averages is widening, suggesting a strong uptrend, which has pushed the market to near the overbought zone. In the event of a continual up-move, the commodity is expected to pull back after hitting the resistance at 48.30.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 48.30 to 47.75 valid until 20:00 GMT October 03, 2016



EURO50



Fig: EURO 50 H4 Technical Chart

Euro Stoxx 50 index opened the session with a small gap down after a strong rally on Friday. Since early September, lower lows have been created, suggesting a weakening of the bulls in the market. While the stochastic chart has neared the overbought zone, the RSI is still lingering around average level. The 38.2% level is within sights but this is not a firm support level considering recent price cycles. Traders may need to wait for more signals to enter a trade.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 3016.50 to 3050.00 valid until 20:00 GMT October 03, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

AUD/NZD signal by Option Banque

From 1.05230
Till 1.05000

Option Digital
Direction Put
Valid Until GMT 21:00 03/10/2016

 

[Option_Banque]

FTSE Market Outlook by Option Banque

Can FTSE 100 Breach Milestone 7000.00? Call Option Buyers Think So

U.K shares gained the most among western-European benchmarks on Monday. While a drop in the British Pound helped export company shares rise, rising oil prices supported energy producers.

The FTSE 100 index hit 16-month highs at 6995.05 and is heading for a major milestone at 7000.00, after Prime Minister Theresa May on Sunday said that she would trigger Article 50 of the EU’s Lisbon Treaty as soon as the end of March. This will be the starting point for two years of negotiations between the U.K and the European Union regarding the exit of the UK from the 28-nation bloc.

The British Pound fell to as low as 1.28446 against the dollar – the lowest since July 06th and is expected to plunge deeper to hit a new three-decade low at 1.27940 as investors have been increasing positions against the currency. According to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, short positions on the Sterling outnumbered long positions by 87,714 contracts last week.

A weak pound fueled shares of international companies who generate a large part of their revenue and profit from overseas. Among the best performers in the 100 constituents making up the index, shares of Hikma Pharmaceuticals PLC added 2.2%, while consumer goods company Unilever PLC gained 1.4% and alcoholic beverages company Diageo rose 1.7%.

Banking giant HSBC Holdings plc, with its interests overseas overwhelming its interests in the domestic banking sector, also jumped as much as 1.54%. Lower rates in the U.K are making it harder for the bank to sustain profitability. However, most of HSBC’s business is outside the U.K and includes its U.S operations – a market where interest rates are likely to rise soon.

Soaring oil prices boosted energy companies. Royal Dutch Shell topped gainers today. Shell’s A shares were up 2.90% to 1963.5p while its B shares inched 2.91% higher. Shares of BP climbed 1.98%.

At the bottom of the performers list, BT Group plc lost 1.38% after the Financial Times reported that negotiations between BT Group and Ofcom have broken down. The two companies have been negotiating a deal to transform Ofcom’s network division Openreach. If a deal cannot be struck with BT then it will be forced to restructure its company according to European regulators.

Fig: FTSE 100 H4 technical chart

The FTSE has been in a strong rally from as low as 6645.00. The index broke August’s high at 6956.21 to set a new record high for this year. As can be seen from the stochastic chart, the market has entered the overbought zone. Hence, a consolidation is expected before the index can surge higher.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option from 6985.00 to 7000.00 valid until 20:00 October 10, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

USDCAD trade idea by Option Banque

Expanding Manufacturing Sector Boosts USDCAD – Call Options Seem Attractive

USDCAD rose on Monday in the face of fluctuating oil prices and a strengthening U.S dollar following U.S manufacturing data. The Canadian dollar received support from the crude price in early trading but tumbled later as oil pulled back. U.S light, sweet crude WTI fell to as low as $47.87 per barrel after surging as high as $48.85 per barrel.

On the contrary, the greenback gained on the back of a better-than-expected manufacturing report. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Monday that its index of national factory activity swung back to expansion territory after surprisingly falling below 50 in August. The index rose to 51.5 in September from 49.4 the prior month, beating analyst expectations of a reading of 50.4.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Options from 1.31400 to 1.31600 valid until 21:00 GMT October 03, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

GBP/NZD signal by Option Banque

GBP/NZD signal by Option Banque

From1.76000
Till1.75600

Option Digital
Direction Put
Valid Until GMT 21:00 04/10/2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily Report on October 04, 2016 by Option Banque

Daily Report on October 04, 2016



The U.S dollar continued to strengthen against most of its peers, extending gains after the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Monday that the purchasing managers index for the manufacturing sector rose to 51.5 in September from 49.4 the prior month. The gauge assesses confidence among mangers regarding manufacturing sector activity. The reading pointed to an expansion last month after shrinking in August.

In an interview on Bloomberg Television on Monday, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester stated that the case for a rate hike this year remained compelling and she expected that the target range for the benchmark federal funds rate would be raised as soon as November. Markets are not pricing too much of a change next month as the meeting is too close to the U.S. presidential elections.

Besides Fed Cleveland President Mester, New York Fed President William Dudley also spoke on Monday. Speaking at a private conference at the New York Fed, President Dudley expressed fears that the Fed would not have as much policy room as it did during the period of financial crisis to support the economy if the U.S fell into recession in the next few years. Hence, the central bank should be cautious about raising interest rates.

Australia’s central bank, led by new Governor Philip Lowe, kept the benchmark rate unchanged at a record-low of 1.5 percent at its monetary policy meeting earlier today. The bank cited an unexpected rebound in commodity prices as a boost to the economy, helping it to grow at an above-average pace. Additionally, the housing boom in Australia is an area of rising concern and the real estate sector is in a situation that may not be suitable for further cuts, especially when the unemployment rate is falling and international trading conditions are favourable for Australia.



Technicals

USDCHF



Fig: USDCHF H4 Technical Chart

USDCHF has been stuck in a range between the support at 0.96511 (which is also the 23.6% retracement level) and the resistance at 0.97400 since September 22nd. The pair rose above the two moving averages on Friday and the MA's have now become dynamic supports for the market. The price action is likely to make a breakout through the current range. As can be seen in the ADX chart, the ADX index has surged above 20, confirming a new uptrend after a period of moving sideways.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 0.97500 to 0.97800 valid until 20:00 GMT October 04, 2016



AUDUSD



Fig: AUDUSD H4 Technical Chart

AUDUSD is struggling around the 0.76730 level but is generally receiving support from the short-term MA20. The Aussie is expected to soar higher as the relative strength index continues to stay above the 50-line which separates the bullish territory from the bearish territory. Both MA's are currently placed below the price action and underpinning the market currently. The pair may test the high from Thursday at 0.77095.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 0.76800 to 0.77095 valid until 20:00 GMT October 04, 2016



EURCAD



Fig: EURCAD H4 Technical Chart

EURCAD has been moving sideways to lower since the start of the new month. The pair is currently under downward pressure from the two MAs which are placed above the price action and the downward sloping trendline that connects lower highs since September 27th. Both the MA's are currently placed above the price action.With the RSI indicating bearish sentiment, the pair is anticipated to fall further to the 23.6% level.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 1.46900 to 1.46350 valid until 20:00 GMT October 04, 2016



SILVER



Fig: SILVER H4 Technical Chart

Silver was moving sideways under the long-term MA50 in the first half of yesterday’s trading day and eventually failed to breach this resistance. Furthermore, silver fell out of the recent range between 19.265 and 18.960 to hit major support at 18.765. This is a major support zone that had contained the prices in mid-September. As the market has entered the oversold zone, buyers stepped in and pushed the price back up, which can be seen in long lower shadow in recent candles. Silver may have found a bottom and is likely to pull back.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 18.960 to 19.265 valid until 20:00 GMT October 04, 2016



COPPER



Fig: COPPER H4 Technical Chart

Copper has broken below the two MA's which have now turned into new points of resistance after the price action crossed over from above yesterday. A sharp decline on Monday sent the market into the bearish zone, trimming the rally that reigned in the second half of September. The commodity may fall deeper with the support at 2.1640 within sight. A weak reading on the RSI is confirming the downward momentum.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 2.1850 to 2.1640 valid until 20:00 GMT October 04, 2016



Dow Jones



Fig: Dow Jones H4 Technical Chart

The Dow has been trading in a shrinking range for a month now, which has caused the RSI index to swing back and forth around the average line. The pair failed at the upper boundary of the recent range yesterday and fell back. The market may attempt a test of the lower boundary today, in case the retreat from yesterday continues. The %K line and %D line are heading downwards, suggesting a continuation of the downtrend.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 18.220 to 18.100 valid until 20:00 GMT October 04, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

DAX30 Market Outlook by Option Banque

DAX Soars On Post Holiday Debut – Call Options Suggested – 10,600.00 Under Test

German shares rose on Tuesday after the holiday on Monday. Upbeat sentiment powered European stocks higher as concerns related to Deutsche Bank AG easing off. The gains in the Deutsche shares boosted Germany’s DAX 30 index by as much as 0.7% to 10,599.00 in the morning session.

Deutsche Bank has been on the course of recovery since Friday, after J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. estimated the settlement between the German lender and the U.S Department of Justice will be about $5.4 billion, which is much lower than the initial $14-billion claim made by the US DOJ. Shares of Deutsche Bank gained 1.3% in early Frankfurt trade.
On the contrary, rival Commerzbank AG lost 0.7% after the second biggest bank in Germany confirmed forecasts that have predicting disappointing financial results from the bank in its third quarter. In its Capital Markets Day presentation on Tuesday, Commerzbank AG said that third-quarter operating profit is expected to be lower than the two previous quarters, while revenues are anticipated to be flat compared to the preceding quarter.

In general, advancing issues outnumbered declining ones by a 2:1 ratio. On the top of list of gainers was car maker BMW AG. Shares of the BMW group were upgraded to outperform by Exane BNP Paribas after ongoing sales success across all premium brands. BMW delivered a total of 165,431 vehicles in August, posting an increase of 5.7% over the same month last year.

In the first eight months of this year, total sales registered at 1,508,659 – up 5.5% compared with the same period last year. This is the first time ever that the group sold over 1.5 million vehicles during the first eight months of the year. European-listed BMW shares have jumped 2.65% so far.

Other auto makers namely Volkswagen and Daimler also rallied on Tuesday, surging more than 1.2% each.

Airline Deutsche Lufthansa led losers, dropping over 2% after a chain of rating agencies including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley downgraded the shares of Germany’s largest airline to “sell” last week.

Fig: DAX H4 Technical Chart

The DAX 30 edged higher on Tuesday but has not yet breached the resistance at 10600.00. The index crossed above the two moving averages from below on Friday, signalling a reverse into an uptrend. The RSI has remained above 50, indicating that buyers are outnumbering sellers. Further up moves are expected as the ADX has soared above 20, confirming the uptrend.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option from 10600.00 to 10650.00 valid until 20:00 GMT October 04, 2016