Daily Market Updates & Trading Signals By Option Banque

[Option_Banque]

Investment Cutbacks Threaten Future Supply – Oil Traders Buying Call Options

Investment Cutbacks Threaten Future Supply – Oil Traders Buying Call Options

U.S light, sweet crude trimmed earlier losses on Tuesday, powered by warnings from OPEC’s new Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo that sharp cutbacks in investment by oil firms may pose a threat to global supply in the future.

The head of the OPEC oil cartel stated that after slashing investment by 26 percent last year, petroleum firms may cut investment by another 22 percent this year. Talking about the informal meeting next week, between OPEC and non-OPEC nations to discuss efforts to reach an output freeze, Barkindo said that Iran had committed to participate in efforts to stabilize the oil market and prop up prices.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option from 43.70 to 43.90 valid until 20:00 GMT September 20, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily Report on September 21, 2016 by Option Banque

Crude Prices Rally As Inventories Fall – All Eyes On FOMC

Oil prices extended gains on Wednesday, supported by a draw-down in U.S. crude inventories and firm import data from Japan. The American Petroleum Institute data on Tuesday reported that U.S oil stocks decreased by 7.5 million barrels last week to 507.2 million barrels, registering the third weekly draw-down in inventories.

Adding to the bullish sentiment in the crude oil market, the Ministry of Finance (MOF) on Wednesday reported that Japan’s crude oil imports rose 0.5% in August from the same month a year earlier. On average, the world's fourth-biggest crude oil buyer imported 3.38 million barrels per day last month.

In the same report, the MOF stated that Japan's exports fell 9.6 percent from a year earlier to 5.316 trillion yen, due to a strengthening Japanese Yen and weak overseas demand. Japanese exports have been sluggish for 11 consecutive months, while imports also declined 17.3% from a year before to 5.335 trillion yen.

In the U.S, new home construction fell by 5.8% in August to a 1.14 million annualized rate, as a plunge in the South, the biggest region for building, outweighed gains in the rest of the country. The report from the Commerce Department on Tuesday also indicated that building permits dropped 0.4% to a 1.14 million annualized rate. Both readings fell short of expectations.

The New Zealand dollar retreated overnight, after Fonterra Co-operative Group, the world's biggest dairy exporter, announced that the Fonterra's GDT Price Index climbed 1.7 percent in the auction held on Tuesday. The average international selling prices for milk rose to $2,975 per ton while volumes dropped 4.6% from the first auction this month to 35,086 tons.



Technicals

GBPUSD



Fig: GBPUSD H4 Technical Chart

The British Pound has been falling steeply over the last week or so, paring most of its gains in the period from mid-August to early September. The pair has broken through the ascending channel and the trendline support connecting the notable highs registered between late July and August. Lower lows created recently on the price chart, alongside with lower lows that have been formed on the indicator chart, indicate overwhelming bearish force in the market. The price action has broken through both the MA's from above and both MA's are now placed above the price action creating further pressure on prices.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 1.29450 to 1.29000 valid until 20:00 GMT September 21, 2016



USDCAD



Fig: USDCAD H4 Technical Chart

USDCAD is moving along the 20-period MA. The pair has not been able to decisively breach this zone of support and has had to reverse higher every time it tends to make a crossover through the MA from above. Bulls have kept the market in the bullish territory for quite a long time and the market is forecast to extend the rally as no fundamental factor will show up until the U.S session. The RSI is placed near the neutral threshold and therefore the market is expected to persist along the current path.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 1.32000 to 1.32400 valid until 20:00 GMT September 21, 2016



GBPCHF



Fig: GBPCHF H4 Technical Chart

GBPCHF has been suffering some selling pressure recently after the pair started retreating from the two-month high at 1.31192 created on September 6. The pair is struggling around the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.27024 and is under downward pressure from the two MAs placed above the price action. The market seems to be in a period of consolidation with indicators providing little clarity in terms of decisive direction. GBPCHF is expected to make a break through the 61.8% level to the downside, after completing the consolidation as up-moves are struggling to register any significant levels.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 1.27020 to 1.26250 valid until 20:00 GMT September 21, 2016



WTI



Fig: WTI H4 Technical Chart

U.S crude price has breached the resistance at 44.50 but the up-moves are threatened by the two resistance lines connecting recent highs of significance between the August/September period. The market is in a bullish formation for the first time since last Tuesday, after the price action crossed over both the MA's from below and the RSI providing a confirmation as well. Fundamental data and short-covering are on course to push the commodity towards the 23.6% retracement level at 45.56.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 45.00 to 45.56 valid until 20:00 GMT September 21, 2016



COTTON



Fig: Cotton H4 Technical Chart

Cotton has been on a steady rise but currently witnessed some corrective moves after reaching over one-week highs at 70.75 at the market open today. The commodity not only created a gap up in the early Asian session but also covered the gap and is pointing downwards to the 38.2% retracement level at 70.00. As technical indicators are suggesting further advances, the 38.2% level is forecast to be a firm support that will force cotton prices to reverse higher.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 70.00 to 71.50 valid until 20:00 GMT September 21, 2016



Dow Jones



Fig: Dow Jones H4 Technical Chart

Dow Jones’ trading range has been shrinking since last Monday and the price action is now in a triangle of congestion. The index has continuously created big gaps on the market open recently, indicating an unstable sentiment among investors. The RSI and Stochastic are nowhere near providing any decisive indications of the state of the market. A breakout can be expected through either side with equal probability as the collapse in daily volatility is bound to be followed by a major move in either direction as the triangle resolves itself.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 18250.00 to 18355.00 valid until 20:00 GMT September 21, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

USDJPY Market Outlook by Option Banque

USDJPY Range Bound After BOJ – Will There Be A Fed-Inspired Breakout?
The Japanese Yen regained ground in the early European session after having promptly plunged following the outcome of the Bank of Japan’s two-day meeting on Wednesday. The BOJ left its interest rate unchanged but shifted the focus from monetary policy towards “yield curve control”, thereby committing to reaching the elusive inflation target of 2% as soon as possible.
At the policy review, the Japanese central bank refrained from pushing its benchmark rate further into negative territory, maintaining the rate it applies to the excess reserves held by financial institutions at the central bank. The BOJ stated that it would abandon its base money target and control bond yields across different maturities instead. Under this program, the bank will buy long-term government bonds to keep 10-year bond yields at current levels of around zero percent.

The target for the average maturity of its government bond holdings will be replaced by new tools including buying Japanese government bonds with yields designated by the BOJ and fixed-rate funds-supplying operations for a period of up to 10 years. Meanwhile, the target for expanding the monetary base through asset purchases containing JGBs, corporate paper and corporate bonds was maintained.

Additionally, the Bank will purchase exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Japanese real estate investment trusts (J-REITs) at an annual pace of about 6 trillion yen and about 90 billion yen, respectively.

Under the new framework called “Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE) with Yield Curve Control”, the BOJ pledged to “continue expanding the monetary base until the year-on-year rate of increase in the observed CPI (all items less fresh food) exceeds the price stability target of 2 percent and stays above the target in a stable manner.”

According to market sources, the new framework is supposed to be more effective than the old one, and that will enhance the sustainability of the monetary policy as well as encourage the financial sector including banks and insurance companies.

Markets vacillated slightly after the decision by the Bank of Japan as the real force that will define market direction is yet to be unleashed. The FOMC meeting that concludes later today will be the big force that is expected to move the markets significantly. The markets are estimating near zero chance for a rate hike today. However, the possibility of an interest rate increase by the end of this year is still under consideration.

Intense scrutiny will be placed on the Fed forecasts for economic growth, unemployment, inflation and the expected path of interest rates in the future. Also closely scrutinized shall be the comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen in the press conference, that comes the heels of the rate announcement.

Fig: USDJPY H4 Technical chart

The Japanese Yen has generally been on a rise against the U.S dollar. For the last two weeks, the pair has been trading in a range from 101.200 to 102.740 amidst the cautiousness of investors. The sharp and volatile moves during the Asian session was the greatest amount of volatility seen since September 06. However, despite all the volatility the market failed to register a breakout through the recent range on either side. The Yen is paring all of its earlier losses currently and USDJPY is nearing a test of the 101.200 level. However, the support is expected to hold and USDJPY is expected to rebound from the support at 101.200

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call option from 101.200 to 102.000 valid until 19:00 GMT September 21,

 

[Option_Banque]

Oil Trade Idea by Option Banque

Oil Spikes On Falling Inventories – Cautiousness Caps Gains

Oil prices rose nearly 2 percent on Wednesday following an unexpected drop in weekly crude stockpiles data reported by the U.S. government. The Report by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed domestic crude inventories fell by 6.2 million barrels for a third week in a row last week.

However, some investors expressed concerns over the data from the EIA. The EIA data also reported that U.S. crude imports rose last week by 77,000 barrels per day, while refinery runs fell by 143,000 barrels per day. This indicates a buildup in crude oil stocks as refineries lag behind in processing the crude oil imported.

As a U.S dollar-dominated commodity, crude resumed its nervous moves after a spike to a one week high ahead of the FOMC decision due later.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option from 46.74 to 47.00 valid until 20:00 GMT September 21, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily Report on September 22, 2016 by Option Banque

Asian stocks extended their rally on Thursday for a sixth consecutive trading session, supported by accommodative monetary policies in the U.S., Europe and Asia. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was up 1.3 percent, taking its cue from the rally on Wall Street overnight after the U.S Federal Reserve echoed the stance adopted by other central banks in maintaining accommodative monetary policy.

The Fed held its target rate for overnight lending between banks in a range of 0.25 percent to 0.50 percent after its two-day meeting that ended on Wednesday. The central bank still indicated a rate hike by the end of this year, but its projection for the number of rate increases next year was trimmed to two from three. While the Nasdaq closed at record highs, all 11 major sectors making up the S&P500 index finished in the green with the best performance coming from the energy sector.

Crude oil gained following an unexpected drop in the weekly crude oil inventory data reported by the U.S. government. The Report by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday reported that domestic crude inventories fell by 6.2 million barrels last week - for the third week in a row. The commodity continued to rally on Thursday, boosted by the decline in the dollar. Other industrial metals such as copper, aluminum and zinc also climbed.

The New Zealand Dollar weakened after its central bank stated that further policy easing is expected. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held the official cash rate unchanged at 2 percent on Thursday, but reiterated that “Further policy easing will be required to ensure that future inflation settles near the middle of the target range.”



Technicals

USDCHF


Fig: USDCHF H4 Technical Chart

USDCHF fell through the price range between the resistance at 0.98170 and the support at 0.97803, which marks the 38.2% retracement level. The US Dollar plunged sharply under the influence of aggressively bearish forces, which can be seen in the long bodies of the down candles. The MA20 has penetrated the long term MA50 from above, in addition to the price action crossing through both the MA's from above. Currently both MA's are placed above the price action and the RSI index is beginning to head lower, suggesting that USDCHF may fall deeper towards the 23.6% retracement level.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 0.97000 to 0.96512 valid until 20:00 GMT September 22, 2016



NZDUSD



Fig: NZDUSD H4 Technical Chart

NZDUSD is trading in an ascending channel running parallel to the previous upward trading range. In fact, the lower boundary of earlier last range has turned into the resistance for the current channel. While the RSI indicates that buyers are overshadowing sellers, the stochastic chart is indicating a possible pullback, with the %K line crossing over the %D line from north to south. The RSI index is in neutral territory currently. Trade against the generally upward direction prevailing currently, need to wait for more signals, at least till the RSI surpasses the 50-line.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 0.73230 to 0.72900 valid until 20:00 GMT September 22, 2016



EURCAD



Fig: EURCAD H4 Technical Chart

EURCAD appears to be in the final stages of a head and shoulders pattern. The pair is heading downwards to the support at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.45631 after pulling back from over five-month highs at 1.48700 – that was reached mid-September. The slide has sent the pair trading below the two moving averages. The MA20 has converged with the MA50 from above, suggesting further declines. The price action has also broken below both the MA's from above, indicating a bearish setup.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 1.46300 to 1.45631 valid until 20:00 GMT September 22, 2016



SILVER



Fig: SILVER H4 Technical Chart

Silver is experiencing some corrective moves after breaking out of the recent consolidation period and breaching the 23.6% retracement at 19.367. The sharp rally quickly exhausted bulls and has pushed the market in an overblown/overbought state. Silver has retreated from the highest level since September 08 at 19.859. With upward support from the two MAs below, the grey metal is expected to reverse and re-attempt the high at 20.100

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 19.850 to 20.100 valid until 20:00 GMT September 22, 2016



WTI



Fig: WTI H4 Technical Chart

WTI crude has moved past the 23.6% level at 45.56 after vigorously soaring from the lows at 43.00. The market state reversed from near oversold to almost overbought. The commodity consequently had to retreat to gather itself and regain some bullish momentum. Further advances have been confirmed by the 20-period moving average that has converged with the MA50 from below, with both MA's firmly underpinning the current up-move.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 45.80 to 46.50 valid until 20:00 GMT September 22, 2016



FTSE



Fig: FTSE H4 Technical Chart

The FTSE100 is currently moving sideways, but in general, the index has been ticking upwards to retest the resistance at 6880.00. Coupled with the RSI index that is hovering in bullish territory, the %K line has reversed and penetrated the %D line from below, indicating that buyers are dominating the market. The two MAs placed below the price action are forecast to consolidate the uptrend.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 6880.00 to 6955.00 valid until 20:00 GMT September 22, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

EURNZD Trading Signal On September 22, 2016 by Option Banque

Buy Digital Call Option from 1.53000 to 1.53400 valid until 21:00 GMT September 22, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

SP500 Market Outlook by Option Banque

Excitement Builds As SP500 Near All Time Highs – How To Profit From It?

U.S stocks took off on Thursday, with the Nasdaq setting a new record, while other benchmarks including the S&P500 are also likely to reach all-time highs. Global equity markets continued to be fueled by the Fed’s decision to defer an interest rate hike at the current meeting.

With the September meeting over and done with, focus will shift to the November and December meetings. Markets assume that the U.S will not make a move until the end of the year, as the next meeting is due just days before the presidential election and it does not include a press conference. The prospects of an interest rate increase are quite uncertain considering comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen and the division between Fed officials in maintaining accommodative policy, has caused a weakening of the dollar subsequent to the press conference by the Fed chair .

Thanks to a softer greenback, combined with a surprise drop in U.S. crude inventories, oil surged on Thursday, joining the post-Fed “celebration” with other industrial commodities. Adding to the upward momentum in the crude price were positive comments from OPEC governor Falah Alamri and rumors that Iran and Saudi Arabia were meeting this week to discuss the output freeze deal. Rising oil prices helped boost the energy sector by 0.48% so far on the day.

The technology index contributed to the benchmark S&P 500 index’s gains with shares of Amazon.com touching a record after its price target was raised to $900. Apple’s share price target also received an upgrade, rising 0.9 percent to $114.59.

However, it was the Real Estate sector that dominated the benchmark. Being the youngest member making up the index of 500 of the biggest companies listed on the US markets, the sector is benefitting from a low interest rate environment that has encouraged both investors and people looking for personal homes to borrow and invest into the housing market.

Fig: SP500 D1 technical Chart

The SP500 has been on a surge that may take the index to the record high at 2192.67. The short-term DMA20 refused to cross over the DMA50 which continues to be placed above the DMA20, suggesting a strong bullish force in the market. The ADX index is witnessing a wide gap between the +DI and –DI line, while the ADX line has rallied to a level of 28.63. The Stochastic index is also helping consolidate the uptrend with no signs of any pullback signaled yet.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option from 2178.00 to 2190.00 valid until 20:00 GMT September 23, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

DAX30 Trade Idea by Option Banque

Cheered By Fed’s Posture, DAX 30 Roaring Ahead– Index Call Options Looking Positive

Following a surge in Asian stock markets, European shares rallied on Thursday amidst indications of a continuation of accommodative monetary policies by central banks around the world. The U.S Federal Reserve continued to maintain a pause in its path towards monetary policy normalization. The central bank at did not make any changes to its benchmark rate at the September meeting.

Risk appetite was boosted in the early hours of the European session, with all major bourses trading higher. Germany’s DAX 30 was at the top of the pile, up nearly 2% on the day so far. All 30 index constituents are in positive territory.

Manufacturing companies, especially car producers topped the market today. Shares of BMW and Daimler AG are standing out so far, rising more than 3% each.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option from 10650.00 to 10700.00 valid until 20:00 GMT September 22, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

CADJPY Trading Signal On September 23, 2016 by Option Banque

CADJPY Trading Signal On September 23, 2016

Buy Digital Put Option from 77.150 to 76.975 valid until 21:00 GMT September 23, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily Report on September 23, 2016 by Option Banque


Daily Report on September 23, 2016



Asian shares eased and European shares opened lower on Friday as the U.S dollar rebounded and oil prices cooled down following two sessions of strong rises. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index pared some of the gains from its biggest weekly rally in two months, to trade 0.3% lower, while Japan's Nikkei225 dipped 0.1%. The U.S dollar index, which tracks the strength of the greenback versus a basket of major currencies ticked up 0.14% to 95.50.

Crude prices retreated from two-week highs in early Asian trade, dragged down by a technical sell-off and by cautious sentiment ahead of a gathering of OPEC ministers next Monday in Algeria. On the sidelines of the International Energy Forum, OPEC and non-OPEC members will attend an informal meeting to discuss possible cooperative actions to stabilize the oversupply situation in the oil market.

Data from research group Markit on Friday reported that Japanese manufacturing activity in September expanded for the first time in the last seven months. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the country’s flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to 50.3 in the current month from a final reading of 49.5 in August.

In the U.S, jobless claims dropped to their lowest level since July 2015, Department of Labor said on Thursday. The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week slid to 252,000. The number of weekly jobless claims have remained below the 300,000 level, which is associated with a firming labor market, for an 81st consecutive week,



Technicals

GBPUSD



Fig: GBPUSD H4 Technical Chart

GBPUSD retreated after the price action hit the downward sloping trendline connecting higher highs since June 29. At the same time, the prices fell back below both the long-term and short-term MA's, indicating that the up moves recorded earlier in the week were a result of profit taking by shorts. GBPUSD is expected to extend the slide as the RSI index has dipped below the 50 line, suggesting a comeback by bears.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 1.30200 to 1.29500 valid until 20:00 GMT September 23, 2016



USDJPY



Fig: USDJPY H4 Technical Chart

USDJPY pulled back from the resistance at 101.200 following a period of correction. Bears have jumped in at the right time and restrained the RSI index from breaking above the dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. The price action remains under downward pressure from two MAs placed above the price action. The pair is forecast to re-attempt the support at 100.000.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 100.600 to 100.000 valid until 20:00 GMT September 23, 2016



EURCHF



Fig: EURCHF H4 Technical Chart

The Euro has reversed higher versus the CHF, after a sharp decline that sent the pair back below the 50.0% Fibonacci level. The stochastic and RSI charts are both indicating that the pair has pulled back from the oversold zone. However, lower lows simultaneously created in the price action and the indicators still suggest a strong bear that is likely to push the pair towards the 38.2% retracement level.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 1.08860 to 1.08411 valid until 20:00 GMT September 23, 2016



Natural gas



Fig: Natural Gas H4 Technical Chart

Natural gas is moving sideways to ascending pattern, while holding above the support at 2.975, after falling from record highs around 3.090. Long bodies of the bearish candles show the cautious sentiment among investors as the market seems to quieten as it nears the recent highs. We have received a “bounceback” signal from the stochastic chart, which indicates a possible rise in the price. Natural gas may soar back above the short-term MA20, after a brief ongoing test of this level.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 3.010 to 3.030 valid until 20:00 GMT September 23, 2016



BRENT



Fig: BRENT H4 Technical Chart

Brent crude is coming off the highs following the strongest rally in the last two weeks. Although the MA20 has penetrated the MA50 from below, the upside in crude prices today seems limited, as buyers who have fueled the surge may attempt to take profits off the table and close out longs ahead of the weekend and the meeting between oil producing nations, right at the start of the next week.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 47.20 to 46.75 valid until 20:00 GMT September 23, 2016





EURO50



Fig: EURO 50 H4 Technical Chart

As can be seen from the chart, the lower boundary of the upward slopping trading range which had acted as a support for the Euro Stoxx 50 index, is now playing the role of a resistance from which the market reversed lower. The Stochastics are indicating that this is a correction as the market has entered the overbought zone. With the support from the two MAs placed below the price action, the index is expected to bounce back from the support at 3016.50.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 3016.50 to 3062.00 valid until 20:00 GMT September 23, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

USDCAD Market Outlook by Option Banque

Stalling Inflation Overshadows Bullish Bias From Rising Crude Prices – Call Options Suggested On USDCAD

USDCAD rallied on Friday, heading for the first trading session closing higher since the start of this week. The pair eased weekly losses, as a string of unsatisfying economic data outweighed a rise in oil prices.

Crude prices rose again after dropping in the Asian session. The fact that Saudi Arabia and Iran could not reach an agreement after two-day meeting in Vienna disappointed markets in early trading hours. The outcome of the meeting in Doha earlier this year when Saudi Arabia called off the deal at the last minute, insisting on the participation of Iran, came back to haunt investor memory.

Iran had refused to join the deal at the time, as it saw no reason for a producer, who had just come back from sanctions imposed by the West, to implement any output cut to solve an issue caused by its fellow producer nations/rivals in the OPEC. This time, Iran has almost fulfilled its wish to keep production at pre-sanction levels of 4 million barrels per day.

In a meeting at the headquarters of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in Vienna, Saudi Arabia has made a huge concession, despite no deal being reached. According to market sources, the OPEC’s largest oil exporting nation has offered an output reduction if rival Iran agrees to cap its own output this year, which is currently at 3.6 million barrels per day.

Although the offer’s details over how much output Riyadh is ready to trim remained unknown, and the offer itself has not been accepted by Tehran, the news has shown the willingness of participants in achieving an agreement that would help reduce or freeze supply and in turn prop up prices.

As a commodity currency, the Canadian dollar received much support following the news. However, data from the country’s internal economy quickly turned the situation upside down. Canada’s core inflation rate in August grew at the slowest pace in two years. Consumer prices excluding volatile items such as food and energy, slowed to 1.8 percent from July’s 2.1 percent on a yearly basis, Statistics Canada said. Compared to the same period last year, the overall inflation rate decelerated to 1.1 percent, from 1.3 percent one month earlier. On a month-on-month basis, both economic indicators made no progress.
Not only did inflation readings lag behind forecasts, Canada’s retail sales were reported to fall 0.1 percent in July, versus an estimate calling for a 0.1 percent increase

Deepening the gloomy economic outlook, Statistics Canada also reported retail sales fell 0.1 percent in July, versus a forecast for a 0.1 percent increase. Core retail sales which strip out automobiles dropped 0.1% in the same period as well.

Fig: USDCAD H4 Technical Chart

USDCAD reversed higher on Friday, moving past both the short-term and long-term moving averages. The pair is facing a tough resistance at 1.31400 which has forced the pair to change direction in previous cycles. The RSI index has just entered the bullish zone. To confirm a solid uptrend, we may need to wait for the pair to escape the uncertain territory around the 1.31400 level.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option from 1.31500 to 1.31700 valid until 20:00 GMT September 23, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Oil Trade Idea by Option Banque

Oil prices collapsed after news from market sources said that Saudi Arabia does not consider the meeting between OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers in Algiers next week to be an appropriate time to take a decision on output levels.

Brent crude plunged more than 3% to $46.10 per barrel while U.S benchmark crude WTI dropped over 3.5% to trade at $44.63 per barrel.
Adding to the downward pressure in the crude market, the Federal Reserve has drafted a proposal on Friday to make it more difficult for banks to be involved in dealing in various physical commodity markets such as oil, natural gas, power generation and other non financial activities.

Banks and financial companies that plan to to continue being involved in the said commodities would have to hold up to $4bn in extra capital based on current activity levels of some of the biggest such players like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.

The rule has been proposed to lessen the legal, financial and reputational risks faced by financial institutions dealing in non-core markets such as physical commodity markets. It also comes against the background of years of growing criticism over banks and financial institutions entering and possibly manipulating commodity markets such as power generation or oil refining.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Put Option from 46.00 to 45.00 valid until 20:00 GMT September 23, 2016

 

[CSFX.Support]

Technical Analysis 26th September by Option Banque

Daily Report on September 26, 2016



Crude prices nudged up on Monday ahead of the informal meeting between OPEC members led by Saudi Arabia and non-OPEC producers such as Russia on the sidelines of the International Energy Forum in Algeria from Sept. 26-28. Algeria's energy minister Noureddine Bouterfa said on Sunday that all options were possible for an oil output cut or freeze, and “"We will not come out of the meeting empty-handed."

The dollar extended losses against the yen and euro in early Asian trading hours on Monday, as the impending first debate between U.S. presidential candidates is due later today. The market keenly awaits the first of three face-to-face contests between Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump, which could determine the currency's near-term direction.

New Zealand’s Statistics Bureau reported Monday that the national trade balance widened to a deficit of NZ$1.3 billion on a yearly basis in August, compared to a NZ$730 million shortfall expected. Particularly, exports fell by $323 million to $3.4 billion in August, with dairy and meat products leading the downfall. Meanwhile, goods imports fell $148 billion to $4.7 billion, with capital goods declining $195 million.

In the UK, the latest survey of 115 financial services firms by business lobby CBI and consultancy PwC found that optimism over the outlook for Britain's financial services sector is at its lowest point since the financial crisis. Optimism fell during the three months to September, the third quarter in a row that it has dropped, marking the longest decline since the financial crisis in 2009.



Technicals

GBPUSD



Fig: GBPUSD H4 technical Chart

GBPUSD is once again heading for the support level at 1.29500 which has been holding the currency pair from breaking lower for almost one and a half month. The two MAs placed above the price action are setting a bearish tone for GBP/USD and indicating a possible break through the 1.29500 level. In the event of a continuation lower, the first notable level of support is seen at 1.29000.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 1.29500 to 1.29000 valid until 20:00 GMT September 26, 2016



USDJPY



Fig: USDJPY H4 technical Chart

USDJPY is swinging back and forth within the range between 101.200 and 100.600. The convergence of the ADX line with +DI and –DI lines indicates that no clear impending trend is being formed in the market. With the RSI staying below the average level, sellers are outweighing buyers a little, but the current level of force may not be enough for a breakout of the support at 100.600.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 100.600 to 101.000 valid until 20:00 GMT September 26, 2016



AUDUSD



Fig: AUDUSD H4 technical Chart

AUDUSD has been wobbling around the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 0.76147 since last Friday but is expected to pull back from this level as prices seem to be up against solid support which is the short-term MA20. Although the RSI is heading downwards, the index has not fallen below 50, suggesting a strong bull that is still reigning in the market.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 0.76250 to 0.76730 valid until 20:00 GMT September 26, 2016



SILVER



Fig: SILVER H4 technical Chart

Silver is marching towards the 23.6% retracement level. The market is expected to break below this level easily, considering the last four breakouts. A reversal into a downtrend has been confirmed after the price action crossed over the 20-period MA near 19.623 from above. Furthermore, the RSI index which has inched below 50 has also confirmed further declines.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 19.500 to 19.265 valid until 20:00 GMT September 26, 2016



WTI



Fig: WTI H4 technical Chart

WTI crude prices have resumed the downtrend after a period of corrective buying. WTI fell nearly 5% in the last session from two-week highs around 46.50 to as low as 44.20, and broke below both MA20 and MA50, consolidating the downward momentum. Sellers are anticipated to send the market lower. As can be seen from the RSI chart, the index remains under the 50 level

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 44.50 to 43.85 valid until 20:00 GMT September 26, 2016



FTSE



Fig: FTSE H4 technical Chart

FTSE has been on a decline from over one-month highs at 6937.90. Even though the two moving averages are placed below the price action, the index is likely to keep falling as downward pressure is being exerted from parabolic sar band placed above the price action. The %K line is taking the lead ahead of the %D line in the race towards the oversold zone.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 6880.00 to 6815.00 valid until 20:00 GMT September 26, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

A Week Of Little Economic Data Ahead – Focus Shifts To U.S Presidential Debate, Algie

A Week Of Little Economic Data Ahead – Focus Shifts To U.S Presidential Debate, Algiers Meeting Between Oil Producers

Global stocks trimmed weekly gains on Friday, weighed by lower oil prices and the bounce back in the U.S dollar. The Dow Jones ended down 0.71 percent, at 18,261.45, the S&P 500 lost 0.57 percent, to 2,164.69 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.63 percent, to 5,305.75. Still, major indexes posted gains for the week, with the S&P 500 recording its best weekly performance in more than two months.

Stocks took off on Wednesday after the U.S. Federal Reserve decided to leave the low-interest-rate environment intact by keeping rates unchanged, which helped fuel the bull market. The U.S dollar that typically moves in an opposite direction with equity markets, lost ground against most of its peers, as investors forecast that the Fed would not increase its Fed funds rate until December.
Fed Chair Janet Yellen will testify before the House Financial Services Committee on regulation and supervision on Wednesday, and is due to speak via video conference at the Minority Bankers Forum in Kansas City on Thursday. Her comments will be watched closely for any new hints on policy, following repeated speeches saying that the case for a rate hike has strengthened given a steady labor market.

The euro finished the week higher but the pair has been confined between a 1.1120 to 1.13500 range since mid-August. While manufacturing activity in Germany and the Eurozone as a whole accelerated, the service sector stagnated, thus depressing the composite index lower. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is due to testify before the European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs in Brussels on Monday, and is scheduled to speak about current developments in the euro area at the German Bundestag, in Berlin on Wednesday.

There were no major U.K. economic reports released in the past week, but the British Pound was still among a handful of currencies that traded lower against the greenback. The answer to the question of whether the U.K government will trigger Article 50 and start a period of negotiations with the EU regarding Britain leaving the EU, still lingers in the minds of investors. Last Friday, U.K foreign secretary Boris Johnson said that his government should act as soon as possible and the deal should be sealed before a new round of elections to the European Parliament in May 2019. The calendar remains light next week for the GBP with only revised second quarter GDP numbers due on Friday.

The best performing commodity currency last week was the Australian Dollar. The Aussie was given a boost from the RBA minutes which said that the central bank did not see any serious need to ease in the near future. The Reserve Bank of Australia noted that it sees current monetary policy as being accommodative enough to meet its inflation goals. In the coming week, no major Australian economic data will be reported.

On the other hand, the New Zealand dollar was hit hard by the RBNZ’s dovish monetary bias. The RBNZ made it very clear that “further policy easing will be required” to ensure inflation moves towards the target because the local currency is still too strong. Similar to the AUD, there are no important data releases for the NZD barring trade numbers scheduled for release at the beginning of the coming week.

The Canadian dollar traded strongly for most of last week, largely thanks to the sell-off in the U.S. dollar and a rise in oil prices. However, the Loonie collapsed on Friday, halting a four-day rally, following a slate of unsatisfying economic data.
Canada’s core inflation rate in August grew at the slowest pace in two years. Consumer prices excluding volatile items such as food and energy, slowed to 1.8 percent from July’s 2.1 percent on a yearly basis, Statistics Canada said.
Compared to the same period last year, the overall inflation rate decelerated to 1.1 percent, from 1.3 percent one month earlier. On a month-on-month basis, both economic indicators made no progress.

Not only did inflation readings lag behind forecasts, Canada’s retail sales were reported to fall 0.1 percent in July, versus an estimate calling for a 0.1 percent increase. Core retail sales which strip out automobiles dropped 0.1% in the same period as well.

Continuing the light week ahead, no data for the CAD will be published until Friday, when Canadian GDP numbers are scheduled for release.

Despite an unexpected drop in the weekly crude oil inventory data reported by the U.S. government, crude oil remained vulnerable to any headlines related to the informal talks between major producers next week in Algeria from Monday through Wednesday. The Report by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday reported that domestic crude inventories fell by 6.2 million barrels last week, for the third week in a row.

Chances of an output freeze deal being reached appeared minimal after Saudi Arabia and its rival Iran failed to reach any consensus after a two-day meeting last week. Furthermore, according market sources, OPEC’s biggest oil producer did not see September as the right time for any significant move. Instead, the freeze talks could be postponed to the official OPEC meeting in Vienna on November 30.

Late on Monday night(early Tuesday in Asia), the markets will turn their attention to the first televised U.S. presidential debate between Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump. Recent polls have shown a tightening race, with Election Day is only six weeks away.

 

[Option_Banque]

Euro Stoxx 50 Trading Signal On September 26, 2016

Buy Digital Put Option from 2990.00 to 2975.00 valid until 21:00 GMT September 26, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Ghost Of “Deutsche Bank” Haunts German Markets – Time To Buy Put Options

Ghost Of “Deutsche Bank” Haunts German Markets – Time To Buy Put Options

European stocks declined on Monday as investors were cautious ahead of a couple of political and economic events with the potential to shake up the currently quiet markets.

The first presidential debate in the U.S and the meeting between both members in and outside of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries are two key events that are being watched with great interest, with the potential to generate far reaching effects. Further, the plunge in Deutsche Bank shares contributed towards worsening the sell-off, pushing benchmark indexes towards the worst performance in the last three months.

The DAX 30 lost more than 1.5%, led by shares of Deutsche Bank. Germany’s biggest lender plunged 6.1% to an all-time low at €10.63. That sell-off was prompted after Germany’s Focus Magazine reported over the weekend that German Chancellor Angela Merkel had ruled out any state assistance for the bank next year.

Merkel also declined to help Deutsche Bank in its legal battle with the U.S Department of Justice. The DOJ previously demanded that the Frankfurt-based lender pay $14 billion to settle a probe tied to its sale of residential mortgage-backed securities in the run-up to the sub-prime financial crisis in 2008. The bank said that it was not willing to pay the claim and is seeking a reduced penalty to a more reasonable settlement amount of between $2 billion and $3 billion.

The Deutsche Bank sell-off also affected other banks on Monday morning. Shares of Commerzbank held the second position in the list of today’s worst performers, down more than 3% to as low as €6.02.

Other market movers included German mass media company ProSiebenSat1 Media which slid 2.93%, and Munich-based financial services provider Allianz whose shares declined by 2.67%. At the time of writing, not one company among the DAX’s 30 constituents was trading higher.

Fig: DAX 30 D1 technical chart

The DAX30 index created a gap down at the market open today, paring last week’s gains and heading for the 23.6% retracement support level at 10303.96. The price action is struggling near the short-term DMA 20 at 10421.43 and the market is expected to breach below this support, as the RSI index has just confirmed the downtrend by ticking below the 50 threshold. On the stochastic chart, the –DI has converged with the +DI line, consolidating the downside.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Put Option from 10443.00 to 10367.00 valid until 20:00 GMT September 26, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Government Bonds Take Off Ahead Of The Clinton-Trump Debate

Government Bonds Take Off Ahead Of The Clinton-Trump Debate

Global stocks slumped on Monday as investors anxiously awaited the U.S. presidential debate between Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton and her Republican rival Donald Trump later on Monday. Traders reduced their exposure to stocks, also due to the risk averse sentiment triggered by the troubles being faced by Deutsche Bank’ vis-a-vis the US Department Of Justice.

As a result, capital flooded safe-haven assets including U.S government-bonds. U.S 10-year note prices gained, pushing the yield below 1.6% for the first time in nearly two weeks. Bond yields move inversely to prices.

As the perceptions of a Fed rate hike and the number of rate hikes in the near future get diluted, prices of US government debt may see further appreciation.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option from 131.30 to 131.80 valid until 20:00 GMT September 26, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

GBPUSD Trading Signal On September 27, 2016 by Option Banque

GBPUSD Trading Signal On September 27, 2016

Buy Digital Call Option from 1.30000 to 1.30400 valid until 21:00 GMT September 27, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily Report on September 27, 2016 by Option Banque

Daily Report on September 27, 2016

Asian markets bounced back from early losses as financial markets unanimously agreed that Hillary Clinton had won the first of the three presidential debates. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.5 percent, having recovered from a loss of as much as 0.9 percent. Japan's Nikkei 225 also swung 0.3 percent higher, having been down 1.5 percent.

Data from Chinese National Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday showed that profits of China’s industrial corporations surged the most in the last three years. Industrial profits jumped by 19.5 percent in August from a year earlier to 534.8 billion yuan ($80.2 billion), which added to evidence of continued stabilization in manufacturing.

Speaking in parliament earlier today, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe stated that the Bank of Japan's new policy framework was intended to strengthen monetary policy and to achieve its 2 percent inflation target at the earliest possible time. Abe expressed his trust in BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and said specific policy steps should be left up to the BOJ.

Yesterday, the U.S Commerce Department reported that purchases of new U.S. homes dropped in August after surging a month earlier to the fastest pace since 2007. Home sales fell 7.6 percent to 609,000 on an annualized basis last month, from a revised annualized reading of 659,000 in July.



Technicals

USDCHF



Fig: USDCHF H4 Technical Chart

USDCHF retreated from the major resistance at 0.97000, where the pair also hit the short-term MA20. Last Friday, the U.S dollar made a breakout from this level and reached another resistance at 0.97400. But as can be seen from the price action, a strong bearish influence has been reigning in the market and has wiped out the bullish sentiment. The pair fell back below the 0.97000 handle and is expected to retest the 23.6% retracement level.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 0.96800 to 0.96514 valid until 20:00 GMT September 27, 2016



NZDUSD



Fig: NZDUSD H4 Technical Chart

NZDUSD has surged dramatically about 100 pips from the lows at around 0.72200 and is attempting to get back into the ascending trading channel which had contained the price range in the mid-late September period. Although the RSI has surpassed the 50 line, we can see that the market has entered the overbought zone. It seems challenging for the pair to go far from the current level. Therefore, a decline is expected.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 0.73200 to 0.72900 valid until 20:00 GMT September 27, 2016



USDJPY



Fig: USDJPY H4 Technical Chart

USDJPY remained in bearish territory as the pair failed to cross over the 20-period moving average. Long upper shadows of the last two candles indicate an overwhelming bear that has been creating lower highs on the price chart. The next support to be tested is at 100.000.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 100.500 to 100.000 valid until 20:00 GMT September 27, 2016



GOLD



Fig: GOLD H4 Technical Chart

Gold has been stuck between the support at 1333.60 and the resistance at 1342.00 since last Thursday. The ADX index has hit the lows at around 23.66. Nonetheless, the relative strength index is pointing upwards and continues to stay above 50, suggesting a market in favor of the bulls.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 1337.50 to 1342.00 valid until 20:00 GMT September 27, 2016



BRENT



Fig: BRENT H4 Technical Chart

Brent crude declined towards the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 46.74 after vacillating strongly yesterday. Aggressive market volatility prompted the commodity to break through this handle easily but the same is not expected to repeat today. A bullish market is anticipated to support the price to advance further after testing the 23.6% level.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 46.74 to 47.60 valid until 20:00 GMT September 27, 2016



Dow Jones



Fig: DOW JONES H4 Technical Chart

The Dow opened the market with a gap up on Tuesday but is heading downwards to cover the gap. The index is still below the upward sloping trendline connecting higher lows since September 12, after having broken below this support yesterday, sending the market into an oversold state. The market may re-attempt yesterday’s low at 18086.60 but is not likely to fall further beyond this level.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 18086.60 to 18330.00 valid until 20:00 GMT September 27, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Sugar Trade Idea by Option Banque

Drought Coming After El Nino Drives Sugar Higher – Call Options In Demand As Harvest Hampered

Sugar rallied on Tuesday, heading towards a re-attempt of the four-year highs around 23.45 cents per pound. Investors are betting on the commodity as the El Nino phenomenon has been hurting crops in major sugar producing countries such as Brazil, India and Thailand, by stripping them of much-needed rains.

In the week ended September 20, the net-long position in sugar climbed by 6.4 percent to 284,448 futures and options contracts, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed. That was the biggest gain in six weeks. Raw-sugar futures prices have jumped by nearly 50% this year and climbed continuously over the past three weeks, the longest streak of gains since June.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Options from 23.00 to 23.45 valid until 20:00 September 28, 2016