Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

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Retracements and Reversals: How Can You Distinguish Between Them?

In trading, distinguishing between retracements and reversals is crucial for risk management and overall trading effectiveness. This article explores these two key concepts, providing traders with insights on how to identify and respond to these different market movements. Let's delve into the intricacies of retracements and reversals and the difference between the two.

Understanding Trends

Let us remind you that market trends refer to the general direction in which the price of an asset is moving. Traders classify these trends as upward (bullish), downward (bearish), or sideways (range-bound).

Upward trends are characterised by higher highs and higher lows, indicating growing market confidence. Downward trends display lower highs and lower lows, signalling declining market sentiment. Sideways trends show horizontal movement, reflecting uncertainty or consolidation in the market. The trend concept is important, as it’s critical in establishing whether a move is a retracement or reversal.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors.

 

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EUR/USD Falls After US Labour Market Data

On Friday, key employment data from the US was released, which proved somewhat mixed.

On the one hand, the increase in jobs fell short of expectations. According to ForexFactory, the Non-Farm Employment Change figures were:
→ actual = 142K;
→ expected = 164K;
→ previous month = 89K.

On the other hand, the unemployment rate dropped from 4.3% to 4.2%.

Thus, the economic data showed that the US labour market is slowing down, but not at a rate that would raise significant concerns about US economic growth prospects (as it did after last month's reports).

Friday’s release of US labour market news sparked volatility, and its impact is likely to be felt today, including on the EUR/USD rate.

On 29 August, we wrote that:
→ a bearish head and shoulders (H&S) pattern had formed on the chart;
→ the price broke through the rising trendline (shown in yellow);
→ the target for the decline could be the 1.10415 level.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Occidental Petroleum (OXY) Shares Drop to 2.5-Year Low

Shares of Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY), the sixth-largest holding in Warren Buffett’s portfolio, have fallen to their lowest level since April 2022. According to Yahoo Finance, Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway increased its stake in Occidental Petroleum to nearly 30% this summer.

But could Buffett be wrong this time? As the chart shows, OXY shares have reached a 2.5-year low.

Meanwhile, analysts are lowering their price targets for OXY shares:
→ Citigroup cut its target from $65 to $62;
→ Wolfe Research reduced its target from $83 to $82;
→ Susquehanna lowered its target from $81 to $78.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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AUDUSD Technical Analysis – 09th SEP, 2024
AUDUSD – Price is back under the Pivot Point

AUDUSD was unable to sustain its bullish momentum and after touching a high of 0.6766 the prices started to decline against the United States Dollar on Friday and today in the European Trading session.
We can see Price is back under the Pivot Point in the 2-hourly timeframe.
We can see Bearish trend reversal: adaptative moving average 20 in the daily timeframe.
We have also detected Bearish trend reversal: adaptative moving average 100 in the weekly timeframe.

The prices of AUDUSD are ranging Near resistance of channel in the monthly timeframe.
We see that the AUDUSD is ranging Near resistance of channel in the weekly timeframe.
The price of Aussie is Near a new LOW record (1st January) in the weekly timeframe.

AUDUSD is now trading below its 100-hour SMA and its 200-hour SMA simple moving averages.
• Aussie Bearish reversal seen below the 0.6766 mark.
• Short-term range appears to be Strong Bearish.
• AUDUSD continues to remain above the 0.6650 levels.
• Average true range ATR is indicating Less market volatility.

The next support is located at 0.6653 at which the Price Crosses 40 Day Moving Average.
AUDUSD is now trading near to its Pivot levels of 0.6659 and is moving into a Strong Bearish channel.
The price of AUDUSD remains above its Classic support levels of 0.6645 and is moving towards its next target of 0.6641 which is a 61.8% Retracement from the 52 Week Low.

Disclaimer: This analysis represents my own opinion only. It is not to be construed as an opinion, offer, solicitation, recommendation, or financial advice of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand.

For in-depth analysis, please check FXOpen Blog

 

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EURUSD Technical Analysis – 09th SEP, 2024
EURUSD – Horizontal Support is Broken

EURUSD was unable to continue its bullish momentum and after touching a high of 1.1146 the prices started to decline against the United States Dollar on Friday and today in the European Trading session.
We can see that the Horizontal support is broken in the 1-hourly timeframe.
We have seen Bearish trend reversal: adaptative moving average 100 in the 4-hourly timeframe.
The MACD indicator is back under zero in the 4-hourly timeframe.

We have also detected Bearish price crossover with Moving Average 20 in the daily timeframe.
The Aroon indicator bearish trend is visible in the daily timeframe.
The price of EURUSD is ranging Near resistance of channel in the weekly timeframe.
We have also detected the formation of Bearish Harami pattern in the weekly timeframe.

EURUSD is now trading below its 100-hour SMA and its 200-hour SMA simple moving averages.
• Euro Bearish reversal seen below the 1.1146 mark.
• Short-term range appears to be Strong Bearish.
• EURUSD continues to remain above the 1.1040 levels.
• Average true range ATR is indicating Less market volatility.

The next support is located at 1.1037 which is a Price 3 Standard Deviations Support.
EURUSD is now trading below its Pivot levels of 1.1052 and is moving into a Strong Bearish channel.
The price of EURUSD remains above its Classic support levels of 1.1023 and is moving towards its next target of 1.1021 which is a 38.2% Retracement From 4 Week Low.

Disclaimer: This analysis represents my own opinion only. It is not to be construed as an opinion, offer, solicitation, recommendation, or financial advice of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand.

For in-depth analysis, please check FXOpen Blog

 

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GBPUSD Technical Analysis – 09th SEP, 2024
GBPUSD – Support of Channel is Broken

GBPUSD was unable to continue its bullish momentum and after touching a high of 1.3233 the prices started to decline sharply against the United States Dollar on Friday and today in the European Trading session.
We can see that the Support of channel is broken in the 1-hourly timeframe.
We can also see Bearish trend reversal: Moving Average 20 in the 4-hourly timeframe.
The Momentum indicator is back under zero in the daily timeframe.

We can also see the Bearish price crossover with Moving Average 20 in the daily timeframe.
The prices of GBPUSD are ranging Near horizontal resistance in the weekly timeframe.
We have also seen Bearish opening of the markets this week.
The prices of GBPUSD are ranging Near a new LOW record (1 month) in the weekly timeframe.

GBPUSD is now trading below its 100-hour SMA and its 200-hour SMA simple moving average.
• Pound Bearish reversal seen below the 1.3233 mark.
• Short-term range appears to be Strong Bearish.
• GBPUSD continues to remain above the 1.3070 levels.
• Average true range ATR is indicating Less market volatility.

GBPUSD is now trading below its Pivot levels of 1.3092 and is moving into a Strong Bearish channel.
The price of GBPUSD is above its Classic support levels of 1.3068 and is now moving towards its next target of 1.3062 which is a 14-3 Day Raw Stochastic at 30%.
We are also looking for the breach of the levels of 1.3038 which is a 14 Day RSI at 50%.

Disclaimer: This analysis represents my own opinion only. It is not to be construed as an opinion, offer, solicitation, recommendation, or financial advice of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand.

For in-depth analysis, please check FXOpen Blog

 

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NZDUSD Technical Analysis – 09th SEP, 2024
NZDUSD – Support of Channel is Broken

NZDUSD was unable to continue its bullish momentum and after touching a high of 0.6253 the prices started to decline sharply against the United States Dollar on Friday and today in the European Trading session.
We can see that the Support of channel is broken in the daily timeframe.
We have seen Bearish price crossover with Moving Average 20 in the daily timeframe.
We have also detected Bearish price crossover with adaptative moving average 20 in the daily timeframe.
The RSI indicator is back under 50 in the daily timeframe.

The Momentum indicator is back under zero in the daily timeframe.
The prices of NZDUSD are ranging Near resistance of channel in the weekly timeframe.
We have also detected Bearish price crossover with adaptative moving average 50 in the weekly timeframe.
NZDUSD is now trading below its 100-hour SMA and its 200-hour SMA simple moving averages.
• Kiwi Bearish reversal seen below the 0.6253 mark.
• Short-term range appears to be Strong Bearish.
• NZDUSD continues to remain above the 0.6120 levels.
• Average true range ATR is indicating Less market volatility.

The next support is located at 0.6112 which is a Price 3 Standard Deviations Support.
NZDUSD is now trading below its Pivot levels of 0.6138 and is moving into a Strong Bearish channel.
The price of NZDUSD remains below its Classic support levels of 0.6132 and is now moving towards its next target of 0.6098 which is a 38.2% Retracement From 4 Week Low.

Disclaimer: This analysis represents my own opinion only. It is not to be construed as an opinion, offer, solicitation, recommendation, or financial advice of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand.

For in-depth analysis, please check FXOpen Blog

 

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Shooting Star Pattern: Meaning and Trading Rules

In the fast-paced world of trading, recognising key chart patterns is crucial for informed decision-making. One pattern that traders often look for is the shooting star trading pattern. This article will delve into what a shooting star pattern is, how to spot it on a chart, its associated trading strategies, and its distinctions from similar patterns.

What Is a Shooting Star?

A shooting star in trading is a bearish candlestick pattern that can signify a potential reversal of an uptrend. It consists of a single candlestick with the following characteristics:

• A small body that is located at the lower end of the candlestick.
• A long upper shadow that is at least twice the length of the candle's body.
• A short or nonexistent lower shadow.

TO VIEW THE FULL ARTICLE, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors.

 

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Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) Shares Drop to Almost Six-Month Low

Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) shares closed below $150 yesterday, a level last seen in late March this year.

According to Barron’s, the stock is under pressure due to ongoing litigation with the US Department of Justice (DOJ), which:

→ claims Google holds a monopoly over software used for buying and selling digital ads, alleging the company uses its size to stifle competition.

→ argues that Google employed unlawful methods to block rival ad technologies, forcing advertisers and publishers to use its systems.

The DOJ suggests that Google should divest a product called Ad Manager.

Google, however, maintains that the digital advertising market is more competitive than ever, and the government's arguments don’t reflect the current state of affairs. The company asserts that its case involves website ads, while most of the advertising industry has shifted to apps, social media, and Smart TVs.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Analysis of GBP/USD Today: Bulls Face Challenges

UK labour market data was released today.

According to Dow Jones Newswires:

→ Employment growth exceeded expectations, and unemployment benefit claims came in lower than forecast. ING analysts believe this supports the view that the Bank of England will cut interest rates more cautiously compared to the Federal Reserve.

→ Capital Economics analysts also suggest that the Bank of England is unlikely to lower rates for a second consecutive month at next week’s policy meeting.

The initial reaction to the positive UK labour market news was a bullish impulse for the pound, with GBP/USD rising from around 1.3080 to break above 1.3100 shortly after the release.

However, the pair then retraced towards its “initial levels,” indicating that bulls are struggling to capitalise on the strong data. This could also signal the dominance of bears.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Pound and Euro Decline Ahead of Key Macroeconomic Data

The US labour market data released on Friday caused sharp fluctuations in major currency pairs. Following the release of average wage and employment data from the US:

• EUR/USD rose to 1.1140 before sharply dropping to 1.1070.
• GBP/USD buyers attempted to push the price to 1.3240, but by market close, they had lost some of their gains.
• EUR/JPY tested support at 158.00 but failed to hold below that level.

The market’s reaction to the mixed labour report led to investors shifting out of riskier assets and into “safe-haven” currencies, with the US dollar being one of them.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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What Is Spot Trading? How It Works, Unique Features, and Comparison

Spot trading is a fundamental method of buying and selling financial instruments for immediate delivery at the current market price. This article delves into the key aspects of spot trading, comparing it to other trading methods and explaining its significance for traders.

Spot Trading: An Overview

So, what is spot trading? Spot trading refers to the buying and selling of financial instruments like currencies, commodities, stocks, cryptocurrencies* or other assets for immediate delivery. This means that buyers receive physical securities for cash. In practice, these assets are delivered within two business days, known as T+2 settlement (as of May 2024, many US assets are now settled within one business day).

Unlike futures or options, where contracts settle at a future date, spot trading is based on the current market price, known as the spot price. This real-time transaction process is why it's often called "on-the-spot" trading.

TO VIEW THE FULL ARTICLE, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors.

 

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Oracle Shares (ORCL) Surge Over 11% to Record High

As the chart shows, Oracle Corp. (ORCL) closed yesterday’s trading session above $155, and during the session, the stock even climbed above $160, marking an all-time high.

The bullish sentiment is driven by a strong quarterly earnings report:

→ Earnings per share were $1.39, surpassing the $1.33 expected by FactSet analysts.
→ Revenue rose to $13.31 billion from $12.45 billion, beating the forecast of $13.23 billion.

"With cloud services becoming Oracle’s largest business, the growth in our operating profit and earnings per share has accelerated," said CEO Safra Catz in a press release.

Investors reacted positively to news of Oracle’s partnership with Amazon Web Services and projections of accelerated growth in the company’s order backlog.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Market Analysis: AUD/USD and NZD/USD Trim Gains, Are Bears Back?

AUD/USD declined below the 0.6720 and 0.6700 support levels. NZD/USD is also moving lower and might struggle to recover above 0.6200.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today

• The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline from well above the 0.6700 level against the US Dollar.
• There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.6660 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
• NZD/USD declined steadily from the 0.6255 resistance zone.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.6155 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair struggled to clear the 0.6765 zone. The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline below the 0.6720 support against the US Dollar.

The pair even settled below 0.6700 and the 50-hour simple moving average. There was a clear move below 0.6670. A low was formed at 0.6640 and the pair is now consolidating losses. On the upside, an immediate resistance is near the 0.6660 level.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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USD/JPY Analysis: Rate Drops to New Yearly Low

The USD/JPY chart shows the rate has fallen below its 5 August low.

This decline was influenced by comments from Bank of Japan representative Junko Nakagawa, who stated that the bank would continue raising interest rates if inflation keeps decreasing.

“Given that real interest rates are currently very low, we will adjust the level of monetary support to ensure the sustainable and stable achievement of our 2% inflation target,” she said.

Technical analysis of the USD/JPY chart shows:

→ Since early August, the price movement has fit within a descending channel (shown in red). → The price has fallen to the median of this channel, which continues to show signs of support (indicated by arrows).

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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S&P 500 Rises Following Inflation Data Release

Historically, September has been the worst month for the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), and the start of the month reflected this trend, with the index dropping around 4.5% from 1 to 6 September, indicating bearish sentiment.

However, yesterday's event — the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) — may have marked a turning point.

According to Reuters, US inflation data showed that the core CPI rose by 0.28% in August, slightly above the forecast of 0.2%. This led market participants to believe that the Federal Reserve might agree to a 25-basis point rate cut next Wednesday.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT THE FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Analytical Gold Price Forecasts for 2024 and the Next 6 Years


Over the past century, gold has consistently shown as both a beacon of potential stability and a mirror reflecting global economic fluctuations. This FXOpen article delves into the historical trends and future projections of gold prices, offering insights into its expected movements between 2024 and 2030.

Gold Price History

The journey of gold's value over time is marked by significant fluctuations influenced by economic policies, global crises, and shifts in demand. Traders can observe how these various factors influenced the spot gold price (XAUUSD) on FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform.

Post Bretton Woods and 1970s Inflation

The collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971 initiated a free float of currency values against gold, leading to a decade of volatility. The 1970s experienced a dramatic increase in the price of gold, fueled by inflation, geopolitical tensions, and energy crises, peaking at around $843 in 1980.

TO VIEW THE FULL ARTICLE, VISIT THE FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the FXOpen INT company only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the the FXOpen INT, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors.

 

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Nvidia (NVDA) Shares Surge Over 8%

According to the Nvidia (NVDA) stock chart, yesterday’s closing price was just below $117, compared to just over $108 the day before. The positive momentum was largely driven by the stock market’s reaction to inflation news, as mentioned earlier.

For Nvidia investors, this is a clear sign that the stock is regaining its leadership position, a success attributed to CEO Jensen Huang.

As Barron’s reports, at the Goldman Sachs conference in San Francisco, Huang discussed the launch of the new Blackwell chip and the return on investment for Nvidia’s clients. He mentioned that demand is so high that some companies Nvidia works with have become "emotional."

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Market Analysis: Gold Price Rallies To New ATH, Crude Oil Price Recovers

Gold price started a fresh surge above $2,550. Crude oil is recovering and might rise toward the $70.25 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today

• Gold price started a strong increase from the $2,500 zone against the US Dollar.
• A major bullish trend line is forming with support at $2,528 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
• Crude oil is recovering losses and trading above the $67.00 support.
• There was a break above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance near $67.00 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price formed support near the $2,500 zone. The price remained in a bullish zone and started a fresh increase above $2,520.

The bulls even pushed the price above the $2,550 level and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, it traded to a new all-time high at $2,570. The price is now consolidating gains near the $2,570 zone and the RSI is above 75.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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DAX 40 Reacts Positively to ECB's Rate Cut Decision

Yesterday, the European Central Bank’s Governing Council cut the refinancing rate, as expected, from 4.25% to 3.65%.

The ECB also stated that monetary policy would remain sufficiently restrictive "for as long as necessary" to ensure inflation returns to its medium-term target of 2%.

Financial markets responded with:
→ A strengthening of the euro. EUR/USD rose by more than 0.5% after the rate cut announcement.
→ A rise in European stock market indices.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.