Daily Market Analysis by FxGrow

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 09th March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Gold Finally Submit to strong US Dollar, Awaiting US Jobless Claims
Gold abandoned the bullish levels after a long struggle with US Dollar with efforts to withhold last two weeks' strong gains. Recent bullish waves despite strong US Dollar performance was justified to US uncertainties and political rift lead by Trump and his previous decisions. Last week, FOMC's hints about March Fed hike increased the odds up to 85%, and Trump patriotic speech, both assisted to create the current stability and things are in Accord. Add to that, US strong data through this week boosted US Dollar levels and US Index peeked to 102.24 today, highest levels since 12th Jan. As a result, Gold shed -$60.62 since last week and had to give up the title being a sacred haven metal.

XAUUSD will undergo a further test today as US released Jobless Claims but the main and vital data will be tomorrow with NFP report. Both news will either dig a deeper hole with extension to bearish momentum and failure for support levels, or the yellow metal will make a short-term-upward-correction and save some dignity.

Fundamentals:

1- US jobless claims today at 1:30 PM GMT.

2- US Non-Farm Payrolls ( NFP ) tomorrow at 1:30 PM GMT.

Technical :

Trend : Bearish

Daily Pp 1209.13

Resistance levels : R1 1215.10, R2 1227.20 , R3 1234.30

Support levels : S1 1198.60, S2 1191.07 , 1180.12

Remark : Look forward for US data today, but the main focus is on US NFP report tomorrow. Also, FOMC meeting next week where Fed rates will be released, not to be missed as it has a huge impact on all markets. Closing above R3 level is needed for trend reversal.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 10th March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

NFP Today Is Vital for FOMC's Decision Next Week
Markets are poised ahead of US Non-farm Payrolls and what might come out of it but what makes it vital today is the FOMC meeting next week and its coloration with NFP data today. A positive NFP with strong input would increase the odds of Fed March hike and a negative NFP will decrease next week hike chances. But the main question is, how far will US Fed bare strong US Index levels ?

If NFP is positive today, we expect US Index to break above 102.24 yesterday's high, with target at 103. A Fed rate hike will also peek US Index levels also above 104 level with additional bullish waves in the coming weeks as a reasonable market consequences.

If NFP is negative today, US Index will shift to bearish forces with target at 100.65 and extension of further selloffs and wash towards 99.90 level. Chances of March hike will fade gradually but markets are placing 85% odds for a hike next week and anything opposite to that might create a further congestion and US Index will suffocate at 97 level.

The main key in order to know how US Fed will play along despite NFP result today, are the levels or the range that the US Fed are seeking for US Index. Analysts from Wells Fargo, expected a gain in non-farm payroll of 210K in February, above the market consensus of 190K. Wednesday's ADP NFP scored strongly 298K which increases NFP odds today being positive.

Previous comments of FOMC's members, supported by Yellen and Trump speeches boosted US Index to enter the 100 to 102 level at which we think is the target that US Fed are looking for. A Positive NFP today will increase US Index levels and unchanged rates by FOMC will make a correction back to current US index levels which supports the odds of an unchanged Fed rates next week although the odds are 85% for an increase.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 10th March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Forex Technical Levels Ahead of NFP Data
Non-Farm Payrolls for today are talk of the markers and the possible outcome that will impact major currencies and metals. Expectations for a positive NFP are high today which will strengthen US Dollar soaring all rivals in the market.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels : R1 1.0629, R2 1.0685, R3 1.0689, R4 1.0717

Support levels : S1 1.0582 , S2 1.0551, S3 1.0522, S4 1.0491

GBP/USD

Resistance levels : R1 1.2213, R2 1.2272, R3 1.2350, R4 1.2430

Support levels : S1 1.2132, S2 1.2087, S3 1.2039, S4 1.1986

USD/JPY

Resistance levels : R1 115.62, R2 116.10, R3 116.46 , R4 116.93

Support levels : S1 114.91, S2 114.27, S3 113.83, S4 112.90

AUD/USD

Resistance levels : R1 0.7540, R2 0.7569, R3 0.7598, R4 0.7632

Support levels : S1 0.7497, S2 0.7471, S3 0.7449, S4 0.7427

USD/CAD

Resistance levels : R1 1.3521, R2 1.3561, R3 1.3615, R4 1.3663

Support levels : S1 1.3461, S2 1.3428, S3 1.3395, S4 1.3360

XAUUSD -- GOLD

Resistance levels : R1 1202.81, R2 1213.0, R3 1221.49, R4 1234.23
Support levels : S1 1195.17, S2 1185.85, S3 1176.91, S4 1165.02

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 13th March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

EUR/USD Surges on Collapsing US Dollar, Awaiting Draghi's Speech
EUR/USD inaugurated early trading sessions with an upward gap +17 pips and added +37 pips to Monday's gains with 1.0714 Feb-8-2017 fresh highs. US Index continued the bearish momentum on Monday with 101.01 low after peeking last week Thursday to 102.24. Markets didn't digest the strong NFP data on friday, scoring 235K compared to Jan 238K although forecasts were 196K. The pair failed to guard the 1.07 level, currently trading 1.0674 intraday.

Fundamentals :

1- EUR - Draghi's speech today at 1:30 PM GMT.

Technical :

Trend : Bearish Sideways

Daily Pp 1.0695

Resistance levels : R1 1.0708, R2 1.0742, R3 1.0802

Support levels : S1 1.0656, S2 1.0609, S3 1.0535

Remark : Although the pair has managed to demonstrate strong gains this morning, EUR/USD remains under pressure by strong US Index. Stalling below S1 level will increase further selloffs and wash towards S2 level. Closing above R2 level is needed for a short-term-correction and shift to bullish forces. Look forward for Draghi's speech today and what it might hold as content.


Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 14th March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Sterling Diggs lower and US Dollar Inches Higher, Eyes on BOE Rates Decision
GBP/USD has extended the bearish momentum today for the 13 consecutive session and currently digging for a deeper hole other than today's 1.2109 low. Although a clear sky is waving ahead of Sterling given a green light by UK Parliament to PM May to release article 50 not longer than 31 March, another player ( US Dollar ) continues to pressure British Pound today with a 101.52 high and US Index is currently clawing for additional gains. on the other hand, other news is that PM May will reject the Scottish First Minister Sturgeon's demand for a second referendum in the next two years. This was coming from unidentified government sources and reported by The Times.

The main Focus for GBP now is what is coming, between US Fed and BOE interest rate decisions. Forecasts are highly that US Fed are moving along with additional 0.25% hike to current 0.57%, and Bank of England to lo leave interests at current 0.25% which will boost US Dollar, leaving Sterling vulnerable for strong US Index levels and GFP/USD will suffocate with additional declines.

Fundamentals :

1- GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y tomorrow at 9:30 AM GMT.

2- GBP Unemployment Change tomorrow at 9:30 AM GMT.

3- BOE Interest Rates Decision on Thursday at 12:00 PM GMT.

4- US Fed Rate decision tomorrow at 6:00 PM GMT.

Technical:

Trend : Bearish Sideways

Resistance levels : R1 1.2198, R2 1.2287, R3 1.2355 , R4 1.2436

Support levels : S1 1.2119 , S2 1.2052, S3 1.1984, S4 1.1906

Remark : Economic Calendar is colorful this week with UK and US Data, but the main focus is on BOE & US Fed Rate decisions. Keep an eye on US Index levels as its the main player in the market. A break below S2 level will increase further selloffs and wash towards S3&S4 levels. Closing above R2 level projects additional bullish waves and spark R3 level and closing above R4, the cable will shift to bullish trend.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 15th March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

FOMC Volatility With All Possible Scenarios To Consider
Fundamentals :

Markets, traders, and analysts are anticipating FOMC Rate Decision today with high speculations for a hike, but the question is, will Yellen deliver? FOMC decision will depend on three elements. First element is Employment Rate and last NFP ( February ) result released on Friday with 239K while forecasts 196K, increases the odds for the hike. Also, U.S economy added more jobs than expected whilst the unemployment rate remains near record lows of 4.7%, below policymakers' minimum target.

The second element is inflation, with personal consumption expenditure PCE index score last January 1.9% yearly basis, and PCE excluding food and energy at 1.7%, inflation in U.S has ceiled the 2%, lowest since five years.

The third undetermined element is Consumer Price Index ( CPI ), which will be released today at 12:30 PM GMT, and most indicators and analysts support a positive outcome.

Now we have combined these three elements together, the Fed Rate is almost inevitable with high forecast at 25bps. The question that rings in head right now is, how ill the market react? How far will US Index climb ? Where will USD rival bottom ?

Let's draw the following scenarios and hopefully the image will look brighter.

Scenario one: Forecasts for the hike today is 0.25%, and markets have placed positions and traded on this fact, but does it mean the Fed increase is 25bps ? What if Yellen caught the market off guard and announced a 0.5% hike for current 0.75%? ?Markets would result with higher volatility and U.S index will ride a roller coaster with an incline destination and USD rivals for a decline one. Which means that markets are already priced in for 0.25% hike.

Scenario two: Let's go back in memory for recent market behavior and history. Previous US economic data were positive but we witnessed a negative reaction for US Index levels. Positive NFP and Unemployment Rate, yet the greenback was shortened, which indicates the markets were already priced in for positive outcome, and traders are following " buy the rumor, sell the fact" move " .

Scenario three: It is never about a yes or no for a rate hike. The most important question, or the better question to ask is how many Fed hikes is there ? U.S Feds hinted for three hikes, but will they deliver ? Now the only concern for Yellen and Co. is how to avoid the case of negative reaction for U.S Dollar with a positive decision. The answer dwells in Yellen speech or FOMC statement and how will they approach other possible hikes. US Fed promised two to three hikes in 2017, with first coming today ( March ), the next should be in summer and the last by end of 2017. If U.S Fed want to avoid recent market behavior and dodge a collapse for U.S Dollar, then eyes and ears will be centered on FOMC statement, and a hint of possible hikes with a tiny detail on when for example this summer, this will back up and support U.S Index from rolling as market will have a target to look at and market will make new bets for market anticipation.

The opposite for scenario three, including Yellen previous psychological history leaving details vague and unclear signs of additional hikes will result in collapsing U.S Dollar.

Conclusion: The rate 0.25% is already established and its beyond skepticism. It's not about the hike or not, its about how many hikes and when. Market will not focus on the decision of U.S Fed as much traders will concentrate on FOMC statement. The only solution to back up U.S Dollar is that Yellen will have to halt her ambiguous speech and FOMC must have a clear message and hints about upcoming Fed hikes.

Remark: Look forward for U.S Data today CPI and Retails sales both at 12:30 PM GMT which to be considered vital for FOMC meeting tonight at 6:00 PM GMT.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 15th March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Crude Oil Plunged Over Concerns of An Increase On U.S Shale Drilling
U.S has finally nailed the bulls eye and managed to plunge oil levels below $50 pb at 47.08 2017-fresh-lows. Today, oil prices managed to make an correction with a gain of $1.71 with 48.79 high, and currently oil is pushing for additional profits, lifted by lifted by a surprise draw-down in U.S. inventories and helped by figures from the International Energy Agency (IEA) suggesting OPEC cuts should push the crude market into deficit in time.

"For those looking for a re-balancing of the oil market the message is that they should be patient, and hold their nerve," the IEA said in its monthly report.

The IEA reported global inventories rising in January for the first time in six months despite OPEC cuts since Jan. 1, but said if OPEC stuck to limits the market should see a deficit of 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the first half of 2017.

OPEC's compliance with output cuts remained high even though the group's monthly report indicated a rise in global crude stocks and a production jump from Saudi Arabia, Goldman Sachs said on Tuesday. Goldman said in a research note that market re balancing is still progressing, and it saw demand for oil finally exceeding supply in the second quarter aided by production cuts, despite an expected rise in U.S. shale output.

However, OPEC on Tuesday reported a rise in oil inventories and raised its forecast for production in 2017 from outside the group. It said its biggest producer, Saudi Arabia, increased output in February by 263,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 10 million bpd.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is curbing its output by about 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) from Jan. 1, the first reduction in eight years. Russia and 10 other non-OPEC producers agreed to cut half as much.

OPEC said in the report oil stocks in industrialized nations rose in January to stand 278 million barrels above the five-year average, of which the surplus in crude was 209 million barrels and the rest refined products.

"Despite the supply adjustment, stocks have continued to rise, not just in the U.S., but also in Europe," OPEC said.

"Nevertheless, prices have undoubtedly been provided a floor by the production accords."

In the report, OPEC pointed to an increase in its members' compliance with the deal, according to figures from secondary sources that OPEC uses to monitor output.

Supply from the 11 OPEC members with production targets under the accord - all except Libya and Nigeria - fell to 29.681 million bpd last month, according to these figures.

That means OPEC has complied by more than 100 percent with its plan to lower output for those nations to 29.804 million bpd, according to a Reuters calculation. OPEC gave no compliance figure in the report.

But the report revised up its estimate of oil supply from producers outside OPEC this year, as higher oil prices following the supply cut help spur a revival in U.S. shale drilling. ( Reuters )

Production outside OPEC is now expected to rise by 400,000 bpd, 160,000 more than previously thought. U.S. oil output in 2017 was revised up by 100,000 bpd.

Finally with the significant down-drawn in U.S shale and forecasts for U.S inventories today is 3.3M compared with previous week 8.2M, we are looking for an ascending increase for oil price.

Remark : Look forward of U.S Curde Inventories today at 2:30 PM GMT.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 15th March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Forex Technical Levels Ahead of FOMC Meeting
Markets and analysts have placed more than 90% for a 0.25% hike in FOMC meeting which should boost U.S Dollar and soar all rivals. In all cases, whether Yellen deliver what market is anticipating or FOMC disappoints traders, expectation of a high volatility is inevitable. Below are support and resistance for Forex majors and XAUUSD.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels : R1 1.0640, R2 1.0678, R3 1.0711, R4 1.0748

Support levels : S1 1.0600 , S2 1.0566 , S3 1.0537, S4 1.500

GBP/USD

Resistance levels : R1 1.2198, R2 1.2287, R3 1.2355 , R4 1.2436

Support levels : S1 1.2119 , S2 1.2052, S3 1.1984, S4 1.1906

USD/JPY

Resistance levels : R1 115.17, R2 115.59, R3 116.04, R4 116.49

Support levels : S1 114.44, S2 113.90, S3 113.41, S4 112.84

AUD/USD

Resistance levels : R1 0.7609, R2 0.7649, R3 0.7690, R4 0.7721

Support levels : S1 0.7540, S2 0.7498, S3 0.7456, 0.7419

XAUUSD or Gold

Resistance levels : R1 1211.21 , R2 1222.69, R3 1233.67, 1244.95

Support levels : S1 1195.79 , S2 1186.12, S3 1176.85, S4 1165.57

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 16th March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

USD/JPY Remains Bullish Despite Collapsing U.S Dollar, Awaiting Kuroda's Speech
USD/JPY managed to nail -171 pips after clocking a high yesterday 114.88 despite U.S Fed hike +0.25%. Traders anticipated the Fed hike with 95% chance of happening, as a result, markets were already trading on that fact and trades were set in a position, leaving FOMC meeting meaningless as the news itself was consumed. As a result, U.S Index shed -$1.35 since yesterday with a 100.22 March-fresh-lows.

On the other hand, The Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept interest rates unchanged at current -.010% and maintained 10-year JGB yield target around 0%. BOJ also kept central bank assessment unchanged too. Now, analysts are awaiting Koruda's speech and his take on yield curve target with possible change in the coming time. A steeper yield curve helps improve banking sector profitability, however, this could lead to Yen strength and tackle the exports driven economic growth.

Fundamentals :

1- JPY Kuroda speech today tentative.

2- USD Unemployment Claims today at 12:30 PM GMT.

Technical:

Trend : Bullish Sideways

Daily Pp 113.81

Resistance levels : R1 113.72, R2 114.27, R3 115.09

Support levels : S1 113.12, S2 112.56, S3 111.90

Remark : Look forward for Kurod's Speech and U.S data today which will give new perspectives for the pair. A penetration for R1 level will set a course for erasing yesterday's losses with R3 as a target. Stalling below S2 level will spark additional bearish candles and selloffs with S2&S3 levels. Closing below S2 level is needed for trend reversal.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 16th March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Gold Rallies With Fury Ahead of U.S Employment Data
XAUAUD surged yesterday from 1197.45 low, added additional gains in today's trading sessions with 1228.76 high with expectations of further bullish attacks. Although FOMC meeting was concluded with a hike 0.25% to initial 0.75%, market reacted inversely and greenback was shortened -$1.35 given the fact that Yellen awaited announcement was already expired and consumed by the market. Today, Gold awaits U.S data with volatile economic news awaiting further movement in the market.

Fundamentals :

1- USD Unemployment Claims today at 12:30 PM GMT.

2- USD Building Permits today at 12:30 PM GMT.

3- USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index today at 12:30 PM GMT.

Technical :

Trend : Bullish Sideways

Daily Pp 1206.33

Resistance level : R1 1230.85, R2 1239.31, R3 1249.79

Support levels : S1 1217.15, S2 1206.67, S3 1196.19

Remark : Gold has shifted bullish but U.S data to be considered. Keep an eye on U.S index levels. Closing above R1 level projects further attacks towards R2&R3 with a reminder of previous rallies. Stalling below S1 level signals short term down trend correction towards S2 level and below it, gold to be considered bearish.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 16th March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Sterling Peeks on Weaker US Dollar, Eyes on Local Data
GBP/USD surged +165 pips yesterday, erasing this week losses with 1.2309 high. UK Parliament gave PM Theresa May to release article 50 for final step of EU disposal. In addition to that May rejected the Scottish First Minister Sturgeon's demand for a second referendum in the next two years. Although U.S Index is currently vulnerable with with 102.22 low today, GBP still remains under greenback mercy giving the uncertainties revolving around UK.

Markets are awaiting UK local data with Monetary Policy statement in focus giving that BOE Interest Rate Decision is already settled on forecasts 0.25%.

Fundamentals :

1- GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes today at 12:00 PM GMT.

2- GBP Monetary Policy Summary today at 12:00 PM GMT.

3- GBP BOE Interest Rate Decision today at 12:00 PM GMT.

4- USD Unemployment Rate today at 12:30 PM GMT.

Technical :

Trend : Bearish Sideways

Resistance levels : R1 1.2321, R2 1.2385, R3 1.2444

Support levels : S1 1.2248, S2 1.2190, S2 1.2122

Remark : Look forward for UK and U.S Data today. Stalling below S1 will create congestion with selloffs and wash towards S2&S3 level. Closing above R3 level is needed for the pair to shift bullish.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 20th March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

EUR/USD Prolongs Further Gains Ahead of Weidmann Speech
EUR/USD extended the bullish momentum for the fourth consecutive session and clocks 1.0765 on Monday’s trading session. Overall, the pair added +162-pips since last Wednesday as U.S Dollar dips furthermore and today U.S Index dipped to 99.81 Feb-8-fresh-lows.

Elections in Holland with PM Rutte declared winner over anti-Islam and anti-EU Wilders, boosted the EURO and kept hopes for the EU, and Netherlands is still in the EU frame. On the other hand, according to the Odoxa poll, Macron keeps the upper edge to win the French presidential election race ahead a first televised debate. (Reuters).

Macron, a former economy minister running as an independent centrist, would lead first-round voting with 26.5 percent, just ahead of far-right leader Marine Le Pen (Anti-EU) on 26 percent, before beating her 64-36 in the run-off

Overall, optimism over the EU has flourished after the Brexit harsh experience. Taking the current situation for pale greenback and political overviews in Europe, EUR/USD is heading for additional gains.

Fundamentals:

1- EUR- German Buba President Weidmann Speech today at 5:45 PM GMT.

2- USD - FOMC member Evans speech today at 5:10 PM GMT.

3- USD – President Trump speech today at 11:30 PM GMT.

Technical:

Trend: Bullish sideways

Resistance levels: R1 1.0774, R2 1.0809, R3 1.0841.

Support levels: S1 1.0740, S2 1.0705, S3 1.0637.

Remark: The market posture is bullish and signals for larger emerging upswing to reach R2. U.S Index is currently weak which gives the advantage for EUR/USD to reach for higher levels. A penetration for R1 level signals additional bullish waves towards R2&R3 levels. Stalling below S1 level holds the bullish trend temporarily. Closing below S3 level is needed for market trend reversal.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 20th March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Aussie Surges to 2017-Fresh-highs Ahead of RBA Meeting
AUD/USD is building on last week's strong gains and has surpassed it with a 2017-fresh-highs at 0.7747. The pair hawkish tone found comfort with US Dollar Index bottoming to 99.81 earlier today, lowest since 6 weeks and weaker US treasury bond yields were seen lending additional support to higher-yielding currencies - like the Aussie. As for AUD, eyes now are centered on RBA Monetary Policy Meeting and markets will be searching for clues as to a hawkish or dovish tilt from the minutes.

As for US Dollar, the greenback is on a date with FOMC member Evans, after that Trump speech with expectation of high volatility depending on the speech's content.

Fundamentals:

1- AUD- RBA Monetary Policy Meeting tomorrow 12:30 AM GMT.

2- USD - FOMC member Evans speech today at 5:10 PM GMT.

3- USD - President Trump speech today at 11:30 PM GMT.

Technical:

Daily Pp 0.7703

Resistance levels: R1 0.7748, R2 0.7787, R3 0.7816

Support levels : S1 0.7688, S2 0.7647, S3 0.7595

Remark : Currently US Index is weak which gives the advantage for the Aussie to score further gains but market should pay attention to Evans speech today, any hints about Fed hikes should boost US Dollar. Also, Trump's speech not to be missed. As for Australian Dollar, RBA meeting might project new insights for AUD depending on the hints sent. Closing above R1 suggests further attacks at R2 level. On the other hand, a penetration for S1 will increase selloffs and wash towards S2. Closing below S3 levels is a signal that the market has ended bullish waves and cable to be considered bearish with intensive declines.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 21st March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Sterling Digests Friday's highs, Eyes on Local Data
GBP/USD was on top performance since last Wednesday with +326-pips gains and 1.2435 high yesterday. The pair was jinxed by awakening U.S Dollar index, surging +$0.23 at 100.16 high weekly highs, currently 100.09 intraday with indications for additional bullish gains. GBP/USD failed to sustain the 1.24 level and plunged today to 1.2354 low.

UK Parliament gave authorization to PM May, set to release article 50 not longer by 29 March which will launch the Brexit process, starting a two-year time frame to get a smooth deal that satisfies both parts (EU&UK). Following the announcement, EU Commission chief spokesman Margaritis Schinas said at a briefing in Brussels that the EU is ready to begin talks "immediately" and that they had a comprehensive plan in place.

GBP/USD levels awaits multiple inflation figures today, including Producer Price Index, Consumer Price Index, and Retail Price Index, all of which will set the tone for GBP today and next week facing reviving USD. Just last week the BOE came out more hawkish than expected. They hinted that there is less of a barrier to rate hikes than some expect with one member voting for a hike outright. Rising inflation is a major concern of the Bank of England as they do not want to get behind the curve. If CPI ticks up over 2% in this reading it could move the pound. UK local data today will set the course for coming BOE interest rates decision and markets could start the process of pricing the market.

Fundamental:

1- GBP CPI today at 9:30 AM GMT.

2- GBP PPI today at 9:30 AM GMT.

3- GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing today at 9:30 AM GMT.

4- GBP RPI y/y today at 9:30 AM GMT.

5- GBP BOE Gov Carney Speech at 10:35 AM GMT.

Technical :

Daily Pp 1.2376

Trend : Bearish Sideways

Resistance levels : R1 1.2399, R2 1.2478, R3 1.2546.

Support levels : S1 1.2324, S2 1.2257, S3 1.2181.

Remark : UK data today not to be missed with indications for GBP/USD levels for the coming days as it will the set the course for BOE coming interest rates decision. Keep an eye on U.S Dollar Index. Closing below S1 is a reminder of last week's retracements and the pair could witness intensive declines and wash towards S2&S3 levels. On the other hand, stalling above R1 level is an indication for trend reversal with additional attacks bullish waves towards R2 level.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 21st March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Japanese Yen Sharpens Ahead of Local Data
U.S Dollar lost the tight grip and all rivals are taking advantage of pale greenback with 99.53 low today and U.S index on the path of further losses. USD/JPY currently bearish and the pair added extra consecutive bearish session to 5 initial with 112.26 low, and with current situation of US Dollar, the pair might dip lower.

BOJ board member Iwata crossed the wires last minutes, via Reuters, making a speech in parliament.

Key Headlines:

"JPY Could Weaken Vs USD Based On Interest Rate Differentials"

"Stresses Rate Differentials Are Not Only Factor In Determining FX Levels"

"Difficult to narrow output gap weak yen"

Iwata confirmed that interest rates are not the only factor for Yen bullish gains taking into consideration the collapsing U.S Dollar.

Fundamentals:

1- JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes today at 11:50 PM GMT.

2- JPY Japanese Trade Balance today at 11:50 PM GMT.

3- JPY All Industries Activity m/m tomorrow 4:30 AM GMT.

Technical:

Trend : Bearish

Resistance levels : R1 113.08, R2 113.96, R3 114.92

Support levels : S1 112.04, S2 111.45, S3 110.66

Remark : With U.S data empty pocket today and tomorrow, and taking current situation of weak US Dollar, the is set for additional losses. Keep an eye on US Index levels correlated with Yellen speech on Thursday. A penetration for R2 and closing above it is a signal for trend reversal. Be careful for setbacks on support and resistance levels as a first test.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 21st March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Oil levels Declines Over Concerns Of Bloated U.S Storage, Awaiting U.S Inventories
Fundamentals :

Oil prices dipped on Wednesday at 47.80 low as rising crude stocks in the United States underscored an ongoing global fuel supply overhang despite an OPEC-led effort to cut output. U.S. crude oil inventories surged by 4.5 million barrels in the week to March 17 to 533.6 million barrels, the American Petroleum Institute (API) said late on Tuesday.

"The American Petroleum Institutes' crude inventories stuck the knife into crude overnight, coming in at a 4.5 million barrel increase against an expected increase of 2.8 million barrels," said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at futures brokerage OANDA in Singapore.

"If the API stuck the knife in, tonight's EIA Crude Inventory figures may twist it. A blowout above the 2.1 million barrel increase expected, may well torpedo oil below the waterline," he added.

New production projects and a fresh shale boom could boost oil output by a million barrels per year and result in an oversupply in the next couple of years, according to Goldman Sachs.

OPEC's landmark decision to limit output for the first time in eight years in a bid to arrest the existing supply glut reduced price volatility and increased stability, unintentionally helping the shale producers, the bank said.

"OPEC's decision in November 2016 to cut production was rational, in our view, and fit into its role of inventory manager of last resort," Goldman said.

"However, the unintended consequence was to underwrite shale activity through a bullish credit market at a time when delayed delivery of the 2011-13 capex boom could lead to record non-OPEC production growth in 2018."

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) agreed to curb its output by about 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) from Jan. 1 this year. Russia and 10 other non-OPEC producers agreed to jointly cut by an additional 600,000 bpd.

Sources within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries have indicated that its members increasingly favor extended production cuts but want the backing of non-OPEC oil producers, such as Russia, which have yet to deliver fully on existing reductions. ( CNBC )

PEC compliance in Feb 2017 was estimated over 94% which helped oil boosters to sustain levels above $52 bp on average but the war continues between the US and OPEC counties with opposed interests.

Russia has reduced oil production through first 2017 quarter by 200000 bpd and promised to increase further reductions to 300000 bdp by end of April or May with OPEC plan being in accord. According to sources to CNBC, OPEC is on the edge of striking a powerful strike where the cartel is considering extending initial Vienna deal till end of 2017 if OPEC and Non-OPEC counties agree to further oil reduction to curb market demand, but details about quotas were not specified. Markets, although OPEC next move is currently cooked in a low steam, are looking forward for such deal in which, in case established or achieved, should energize oil bullish levels back to Feb 2017 prices.

Conclusion : Currently US has the upper with increase shale drilling and inventories storage. The rift continues and the war tone is ascending between U.S and OPEC, each trying to drive oil levels higher and lower depending on their economic interests. Keep an eye on OPEC next chess move which will set oil course for the coming weeks. Look forward for U.S crude inventories today set for a release at 2:30 PM GMT.

Technical Overview

The market currently bearish due to the above mentioned data, but OPEC keep an eye on OPEC coming moves. If OPEC managed to struck the deal with extension till end of 2017, crude levels will sustain the $50>$52 levels. In absence of news from Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, markets should expect further declines with $47<$46 as targets.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 22nd March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Kiwi Trades flat Ahead of RBNZ's Wheeler Speech
NZD/USD rallied yesterday to 0.7089 high following positive Global Diary Trade (GDT) with 1.7% compared to -6.3% on previous session. Kiwi boosters found comfort with collapsing U.S Index yesterday with 99.44 low. Today, the pair has managed to recover few pips from session low and is currently trading around 0.7032 handle. A fresh wave of global risk aversion, coupled with a modest US Dollar recovery from multi-week lows, has been key factors weighing on the major on Wednesday.

Eyes now are focused on RBNZ interest rate decision with high forecasts that rates to be left at current 1.75%. However, since rates are a done deal, the market will be looking for any hawkish signasl they can find from Gov Wheeler. This central bank is notorious for talking their currency down and Gov Wheeler may take this opportunity to drive the currency lower. However, if he sounds more upbeat or offers any hawkish hints there may be an opportunity to buy the kiwi.


Fundamentals:

1- NZD Interest Rate Decision today at 8:00 PM GMT.

2- NZD RBNZ Wheeler speech today at 8:00 PM GMT.

3- USD Unemployment Claims tomorrow at 12:30 PM GMT.

4- USD speech tomorrow at 12:45 PM GMT.

Technical:

Trend: Bearish Sideways

Resistance levels : R1 0.7072, R2 0.7129, R3 0.7132

Support levels : S1 0.7016, S2 0.6971 , S3 0.6914

Remark : Look forward for Kiwi local data today. U.S data tomorrow not to be missed especially Yellen speech which will determine U.S index levels for the coming days.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 23rd March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Gold Seeks Further Gains Over Crisp U.S Dollar, Eyes on Yellen
Gold has prolonged bullish trading session with a 1251.34 high yesterday and currently, XAUUSD is confined 47-pips range price action, slightly above 50-SMA (H1). Overall, gold added +$53.89 since March Fed hike. USD collapsed dramatically on Tuesday and extended losses yesterday at 99.32 low, digging deeper for 2017-new-lows at 99.19, which supported gold bullish momentum.

History and logic suggest that when the United States starts a monetary tightening cycle, gold will under-perform, since as a non-yielding asset it loses out to instruments that will enjoy higher yields from the rising rates.

According to the World Gold Council (WGC), China's gold demand has dropped this year, with third quarter consumer demand at 182.5 tons, down 22% from the same period in 2015, while India's 194.8 tons is 28% lower. Analysts are expecting China's and India's gold demand to remain steady in 2017.. China and India are the world's biggest gold-consuming nations.

Today, U.S economic data is heavy first with Unemployment claims which in case positive, should re-balance U.S index levels with upward correction, but the main focus is on Yellen speech and traders will try to decipher words and signals out of her speech.

Fundamentals:

1- USD unemployment rate today at 12:30 PM GMT.

2- USD Yellen speech today at 12:45 PM GMT.

Technical :

Trend : Bullish Sideways

Daily Pp 1247

Resistance levels : R1 1252.20, R2 1264.87, R3 1280.76

Support levels : S1 1242.33, S2 1230.62, S3 1218.83

Remark : Overall gold is bullish but U.S data today is vital especially Yellen speech in relation with low USD levels. Stalling above R1 level is a Déjà vu of last 2 weeks rallies with R2 level as target. Closing above R2 projects further bullish attacks at R3 level. A stall around 1251 could prompt setbacks, but trade should hold within Tuesday's range to maintain strong bull forces. Closing below S2 alerts for trend reversal and market to consider gold bearish. U.S index is the main player.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 23rd March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Wallowing U.S Index and Supper Yellen with Possible Scenarios
Since FOMC epic decision with 0.25% hike to initial 0.75%, U.S Index has collapsed dramatically. After peeking to $102.26 Feb-highs, the Index has shed -$2.94 and anchored yesterday at $99.32, closing to 2017 lowest at $99.19. Below are the factors contributing to bearish U.S Index Foreces.

1- Markers had already priced in and traded on the fact that Fed hike was inevitable. So basically, the FOMC decision had zero contribution to the market "Buy the rumor sell the fact " fitted like the last peace of puzzle and the USD decline picture was drawn.

2- Traders were awaiting further instructions by Yellen and Co. about coming Fed hikes, but details were not listed.

3- Doubts about Trump's capacity to provide the right leadership for Republican party have been creeping into the market fueled by allegations about links of his election campaign with relation to Russian contributes and recent Trump's real estate bought by Russians as Greg Gibbs, Director at Amplifying Global FX Capital pointed yesterday. Also Trump's bombastic style including wild claims about wire taps for the white house when he addressed journalists in previous appearances.

Fact : Combine these above elements, no wonder why U.S Index has tumbled and in case of further declines, it's logic.

Now after we have briefed the above, the real question is, How will Yellen play along today when she appears preceded by U.S Unemployment Claims. If Yellen came out with promises about coming hikes, markets will start pricing in and trading on her words and the whole cycle ( U.S Index ) will be repeated again as Déjà vu. Recent speeches of FOMC's members Dudley and Evans with their declrelations supports the coming scenario further more. So, Yellen will try to avoid this scenario and turn into different aspect in which she will focus on how strong the U.S economy is supported by positive unemployment data, inflation rate, recent CPI, NFP, and retails sales which should boost U.S Index to a 100.46 where trend will make a reverse and turn bullish.

Remark: Previous unemployment claims were 240K and forecasts for today are 241, narrowing down the gaps between the number, skepticism or confusion about comparison between recent, initial, and forecasts will be tight. Traders always tend to read the data in different way when recent is more than forecasts but less then previous, along with it, bearish and bullish volatility.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 24th March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

EUR/USD Guarding Tuesday's Gains Ahead of Local Data
EUR/USD inaugurated Friday's trading sessions with aggressive selling and lost -26-pips after clocking a high 1.0786. The pair peeked to 1.0819 on Monday and prolonged additional 5-pips on Tuesday over arousing political optimism driven by Netherlands recent elections and French polls claiming Macron ahead of Le Pen ( Anti EU). However, the political optimism was jinxed by stingy reviving U.S Index today with a 99.79 high today.

Yesterday, U.S unemployment claims were negative with 258K compared to 241K on previous sessions but markets were focused on Yellen speech, and as always, Yellen will always be Yellen with her vague hints. Markets were expecting a support for U.S Index justified by Yellen timing and collapsing U.S Index, but the lady didn't even comment on monetary policy. Eyes today are shifted towards Trump health care program which should boost U.S Dollar up or down, depending on the final outcome.

Today, EU economic pocket is heavy from French and Germany, services and manufacturing PMI, which will give an estimate on how the EU economy is heading and it's health.

Fundamentals :

1- EUR - French Flash Manufacturing and services PMI today at 8:00 AM GMT.

2- -EUR - German Flash Manufacturing and services PMI today at 8:30 AM GMT.

3- EUR - EU Flash Manufacturing and services PMI today at 9:00 AM GMT.

4- USD - Core Durable Goods Orders today at 12:30 PM GMT.

Technical :

Trend : Bullish Sideways

Resistance levels : R1 1.0790, R2 1.0822, R3 1.0843, R4 1.0866

Support levels : S1 1.0744, S2 1.0705, S3 1.0662, S4 1.0635

Remark :Currently the pair is still considered bullish due to weaker U.S Dollar with sideways options due to the ebb and flow between EUR and USD. The above variety of economic news will decide how cable trend will settle in the coming hours. Keep an eyes on U.S index with coloration of U.S data and Trump health care voting today.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.