Daily Market Analysis by FxGrow

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 26th Jan, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Gold Volatility Pledged On US Data
XAUUSD witnessed a significant volatility through the week but currently gold prices are stable at 1196.33 intraday, and it's expected to continue ahead of upcoming US data. Gold took advantage of collapsing US index first on Tuesday at 99.89, extending bearish momentum today hitting rock bottom 9-Dec-fresh-lows at 99.77. As a result, the yellow metal was on roller coaster between 1220.10 high on Tuesday, and 1191.17 low yesterday. Markets are expecting gold prices to stabilize today, but volatility will kick in ahead and after the release of major economic US data today and tomorrow, both at 1:30 PM GMT.

1- Today, US unemployment claims to be released at 1:30 PM GMT.

2- Tomorrow, The US Advance GDP release is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact. Second US Core Durable Goods. Both data at released at 1:30 PM GMT.

Trend : Bullish Sideways

Key levels to watch : Daily Pp 1198.33

Resistance levels : R1 1203.37, R2 1209.71, R3 1218.16, R4 1232.94

Support levels : S1 1194.12, S2 1186.92, S3 1179.83, S3 1170.97

Remark : Look forward for US data release today and tomorrow as they affect XAUUSD levels significantly with Advanced GDP in focus. Below S2 level the cable to be considered Bearish. Long positions above R1 level comes in favor of additional bullish waves attack towards above resistance levels. A close below S2 level will increase further selloffs and wash towards S3&S4 levels. Be careful from testing on both support and resistance levels as a setback.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 26th Jan, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Sterling Sharpens Ahead of Local GDP
GBP/USD is on the right path of recovery and Brexit experience seems to be behind back. On Tuesday, final steps were put in motion for the release of article 50 and the divorce between the UK and EU has finally come to reality without specification on which trading system UK will adapt with EU and globally. Also, soft or hard Brexit to be decided by PM May and UK parliment. As a result, the pair was bullish since Tuesday, rallying from 1.2418 low, dilating further bull waves and clocked a 15-Jan-fresh-highs today at 1.2625. The pair is to go further test as UK prelim GDP today at 9:30 AM GMT, which will either confirm further up-attacks or make a minor-down-trend-correction depending on the data.

Trend : Bullish

Key levels to watch : Daily Pp 1.2588

Resistance levels : R1 1.2674, R2 1.2741, R3 1.2801

Support levels : S1 1.2547, S2 1.2481, S3 1.2393

Remark : Look forward for UK local GDP at 9:30 AM GMT plus US data today and tomorrow both at 1:30 PM GMT with US advanced GDP in focus.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 27th Jan, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

USD/JPY Surges as USD Strengthen, US GDP in Sight
US Dollar extended the strong tone for second day facing Japanese Yen taking advantage of strong US stocks performance which lifted the blue chip (Dow) for a new historical record 20134 high. Yesterday, US index sank to 99.77 9-Dec-fresh-lows then shifted the course, clocking a at 100.71 (+ $0.94 to previous losses), currently US index trading 100.68 intraday. Comments by Japanese PM Abe earlier this morning "Can't say we've emerged from deflation just yet " supported USD/JPY bullish forces. Reuters.

Today, USD/JPY awaits two major economic events, first Core Durable Goods, Second with more focus Advanced GDP, both set for a release at 1:30 PM GMT. US dollar will either continue bullying its rivals, or give a breather depending on the data outcome.

Trend : Bullish

Key levels to watch : Daily Pp 114.14

Resistance levels : R1 115.44, R2 116.46, R3 117.60

Support levels : S1 114.37, S2 113.56, S3 112.67

Remark : look forward for US data today which will determine the cable trend for the coming days. A close below S3 is needed to the pair to shift to bearish trend. However, a penetration for R1 will enhance further attacks towards R2 level.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 03rd Feb, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Gold Surges On US Dollar Uncertainties, NFP Eyed
Gold has proven yet again to be a sacred haven and the ultimate substitute when economies seem to be unstable. Between Trump's promises of better US economy and steps of such achievement, US index is wallowing and the shiny metal is taking the advantage being on strong demand. Trump's plan includes lower taxation, lighter regulations, full employment, and faster US economy growth. But Trump's recent pronouncements, political attacks, and threatening previous achieved agreements is creating an unstable environment for US economy, and along with it, global fear of what may come. Add to that, petition singed by UK citizens unwelcoming Trump's visit added a negative weight on the US president being accepted globally. Trump may achieve his goals, but the pathway is spiky.

As a result, US index bottomed yesterday at 99.19 15-Nov-fresh-lows after a significant rally at 2017 beginning scoring 103.81 highs. Dow Jones on the other hand, rolled 356 point on Tuesday after ceiling 20138 last week due to the above mentioned fundamentals. XAUUSD was the winner during this week after a significant rally on Monday from 1188.31 low, anchored yesterday at 1225.35 with a new record for 2017.

The question that's evolving now is, how far will US index and gold respond to US economical data today being dragged behind Trump's policies ?

Trend : Bullish Sideways

Resistance levels : R1 1220, R2 1229.28, R3 1237.03, R4 1245.44

Support levels : S1 1208.61 , S2 1199.50, S3 1188.14, S4 1174.46

Remark : Gold is bullish due to weak US dollar performance and US economical instability but look forward for US data today at 1:30 PM GMT with NFP in focus as it has a great effect on US Dollar levels. A close above R2 level projects further attacks towards R3&R4 levels. A close under S2 is needed to reverse gold bullish momentum and a penetration for S2 level will increase further selloffs and wash to S3&S4 levels. Be careful from setbacks and retreats on support and resistance levels as a first test.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 06th Feb, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Australian Dollar Slips on Disappointing Local Data, Awaiting RBA Move
Aussie opened trading session with disappointing local data with retails sales -0.1% compared 0.1% on previous sessions. AUD/USD had the chance to continue withstrong tone facing collapsing US dollar, as US index sank last week to 15-Nov-2017-fresh-lows at 99.23. AUD/USD, last Thursday, clocked a high 0.7696 11-Nov-2017 fresh highs, but faded away from 0.77 handle after negative retail sales.

Eyes now are focused on RBA move, awaiting interest rates decision whether to keep it at current 1.5% or change it with a hike at less expectations. Although forecasts are to leave interest rates at current 1.5% due to strong Australian and growing economy, but the cable could witness some volatility due to the event itself. Also, the interest rate decision will be followed by RBA rate statement or speech and hints of strong economy and positive growing might add some boosters for the AUD level.

Trend : Bullish sideways

Key levels to watch : Daily Pp 0.7677

Resistance levels : R1 0.7691, R2 0.7732, R3 0.7853

Support levels : S1 0.7586, S2 0.7510, S3 0.7450

Remark : Look forward for RBA interest rate statement tomorrow scheduled at 3:30 AM GMT. AUD/USD volatility are expected shortly before the decision and especially during the RBA statement or press release as the content will have a major impact on the pair levels.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 07th Feb, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Kiwi Strengthen On Positive Inflation REPORT, RBNZ Interest Rates Eyed

NZD/USD extended the bullish momentum on Asian trading session lifted by positive inflation expectations at 1.9% compared with 1.7% on previous sessions. Kiwi found comfort last week with collapsing USD at 99.23 low and even though US index showed some minor recovery today clocking a high 100.23, NZD is ignoring USD and currently flying solo. NZD/USD awaits today GDT price index today at 1:30 PM GMT, but the main focus is shifted till tomorrow's RBNZ interest rates decision at 8 PM GMT, followed by a press conference on behalf of RBNZ at 9:00 PM GMT.

RBNZ current interest rates are 1.75% and forecasts are to leave it unchanged but due to 1.9% inflation expectations published today, the odds of a rate hike are increasing.

Trend : Bullish Sideways

Key levels to watch : Daily Pp 0.7311

Resistance Levels : R1 0.7389, R2 0.7482, R3 0.7606

Support levels : S1 0.7301, S2 0.7211, S3 0.7130

Remark : Look forward for today's GDT index which could shake the pair level but expectations of higher volatility will take place shortly before and after RBNZ interest rates decision. Also, Gov Wheeler speech on Thursday early sessions.


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Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 07th Feb, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

USD/CAD Extend Gains ahead of US and Canadian trade balance
US dollar opened trading sessions with a strong tone facing it's south Canadian neighbor and after a long period of comatose, US Dollar has finally shown sings of recovery as the index peeked to 100.69 high today, currently trading at 100.63. Last week USD/CAD bears were supported by positive Canadian GDP at 0.4% compared to -0.2% and weaker US dollar performance. USD/CAD bulls were also fueled today by slipping oil prices which added further losses for the loonie.

Eyes are shifted today on the race between two neighbors as US and Canada will release their trade balance, both at the same time 1:30 PM GMT.

Trend: Sideways

Resistance levels : R1 1.3257, R2 1.3392, R3 1.3534

Support levels : S1 1.3112, S2 1.3004, S3 1.2895

Remark : Look forward today for US and Canadian trade balance released at the same time 1:30 PM GMT in addition to Canadian unemployment rate on Friday at 1:30 PM GMT.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 08th Feb, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Oil Price Slips on Hints of Imposing Crude Imports Taxes
The war continues between the two parties, USA and OPEC. Taking into consideration USA is the largest economy in the world, with heavy dependence on Crude oil for industrial and civil sectors, it is of USA's best interest to keep lower prices.

On the other hand we have OPEC, being dependent on oil production as the main source for economy with recent efforts to curb oil production and additional glut in the market with hopes of higher traded oil levels.

OPEC recent meeting in Vienna was fruitful and resulted in an epic so long waited deal to cut 1.8M bpd. Compliance so far was estimated at 85% and 100% is expected to kick by beginning of June 2017 which lifted oil levels from $36 at 2016 opening, extended additional gains at Jan 2017, peeking above $55 and a steady increase was expected through 2017 especially beginning of June.

Yesterday, oil prices took a dip and extended bearish momentum resulted in -3.77% loss (-$2.1) on expectations that Mr. Trump is due to impose a controversial import tax for crude oil products. Now the WTI/Brent trade is back in fashion on expectations that the spread will again become highly changeable due to the possibility that under President Donald Trump the United States will slap an effective 20 percent tax on imports, including oil according to Reuters. Analysts mentioned that such move would almost certainly break World Trade Organization rules.

Uncertainty over Trump's tax policy poses issues for the oil industry itself. Analysts at Goldman Sachs - one of the most active banks in physical commodity trading quoted ""We recommend shifting hedges to Brent as the basis risk is smaller than the policy risks ... In turn, consumers and refiners should consider hedging through WTI instead of Brent until the policy uncertainty is lifted," the bank said.

Also added, "Should the (tax) be implemented, we recommend that US producers aggressively take advantage of the 25-percent relative appreciation of WTI prices."

Analysts assigned only a 20 percent probability to the tax being implemented and 24 reports on futures prices implied only a 9 percent chance. Also, expectations of a surge in outright WTI prices would be short lived, as the oil price rallies would increase additional efforts for US producers to increase their output. With the chance that OPEC members would resume production, chances of oil surplus in 2018 is now into consideration.

A senior executive at a major trading house added that shale producers have been conspicuous by their absence from the hedging market in the past few weeks, precisely because of their reservations over the border tax. "Basically shale firms don't know what to do. You would look stupid if you hedge and the WTI price rally afterwards," he said.

In Conclusion, Trump is controversial and recent speeches and announcements have proven so. Add to that, low expectations of imposing tax law on crude oil imports with possibility of creating a problem for World Trade Organization rules, Trump's plan falls into narrow skepticism. OPEC deal has more solid grounds and it's already being implemented with positive outcomes. Hence, OPEC plan or deal has a heavier impact on the market and expectations of crude oil levels to reverse to bullish momentum are more likely but look forward for Trump's unpredictable moves.

Remark : Look forward for US crude oil inventories today scheduled today at 3:30 PM GMT which will shake oil levels on technical levels .


Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 08th Feb, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

EUR/USD Plunges On Recovering US Dollar


EUR/USD extended bearish move for the third consecutive day opposed by replenishing US dollar. The pair rolled shed 146 pips since Monday's highs 1.0790 till today's lows 1.0644, currently trading at 1.0647 and it's expected to depress further more as US index peeked today at 100.62. Trump, during a press conference, made a severe attack on the EURO accusing Germany of currency manipulation which created a negative bubble on ECB policy but Draghi responded back with annulment on Monday.

US index surprise recovery was boosted today and yesterday through coordination by Fed members Harker, Evans, and Williams saying that March Fed rate hike is back on the table after giving it 10% odds of occurring. They also added that additional two hikes after march are at higher chances.

Trend : Bearish

Key levels to watch : Daily Pp 1.0695

Resistance levels : R1 1.0716, R2 1.0792, R3 1.0859

Support levels : S1 1.0627, S2 1.0569, S3 1.0522

Remark : Look forward for tomorrow's US Unemployment Claims scheduled at 1:30. Closing under yesterday's lows will send a negative wave for EUR/USD levels with additional selloffs and wash towards S2 level. Closing above R2 is needed to reverse bearish momentum.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 09th Feb, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Japanese Yen Dilates Tight Grip on US Dollar
USD/JPY extended bearish momentum since 3rd Jan 2017 supported by recent positive Japanese data and US dollar uncertainty. Japan Inaugurated early trading session with strong positive machinery orders at 6.7% compared to -5.1% on previous session indicating that manufactures will increase activity significantly. Recent bullish Yen was supported by collapsing USD as the index plunged to 99.19, lowest since 2017.

US benchmark 10-year treasury yield sank at 2.367% low this weak, not buying Fed members Harker, Evans, and Williams hints of the possibility of March Fed rate hike. Meanwhile, the Japanese 10-year government bond yield remained flat lined around 0.10% and efforts by BOJ to buy unlimited 5 year and 10 year bonds on Friday with hopes to withhold the increase on longer yields was deserted. Mr. Nakaso, Deputy of BOJ's, crossed wires via Reuters earlier commented on the price outlook and long-term interest rate target being far long to achieve price goal.

Key headlines:" What's most important is to persistently pursue powerful monetary easing "

"Some in markets argue BOJ might mull raising long-term rate target, but momentum toward hitting price goal not yet sufficient"

"Risks to economic, price outlook remain skewed to downside"

"Global rise in stocks, long-term rates reflects improvements in economic fundamentals, not just hopes for trump's policies"

"Rises in Japan exports, output gaining momentum, broadening to various sectors"

Eyes today are focused on US unemployment rates scheduled at 1:30 PM GMT and tomorrow's epic summit between Trump and PM Abe and subjects for discussion will be trades, currencies, security, macro-economy and China's current trade status is highly rated to be on the greasy menu.

Conclusion: Currently Japanese Yen has the upper hand supported by recent strong data and it's considered a scared haven substitute proved by yesterday's negative local data and USD/JPY remained stable; the pair even showed bearish candle charts. Add to that Trump and US Fed currently not in accord due to different perspectives and agendas.

Trend: Bearish Sideways

Key levels to watch : Daily Pp 112.03

Resistance levels : R1 112.56, R2 113.41, R3 114.18

Support levels : S1 111.60, S2 110.71, S3 109.79

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 09th Feb, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Gold Instills High Levels Ahead of US Data
XAUUSD stands immune facing recovering US dollar during this week trading sessions. Current status of USA, Trump's unpredictable announcements, and recent immigration bans forbidding named nations to enter US borders, which was opposed by Fed courts, has created an unstable environment and dragged US dollar behind Trump. US index, since Trump took the rein, is on a chaotic ride between 98.69 low, up to 103.81 high, landed on 99.13 during this week. As a result, Gold took advantage being a safer substitute and considered a sacred haven when uncertainty is created. As a result, gold peeked to 1244.76 yesterday and it's expected to continue so under current circumstances.

Trend : Bullish Sideways

Key levels to watch : Daily Pp 1237.50

Resistance levels : R1 1245.86, R2 1256.58, R3 1265.15

Support levels : S1 1230.13, S2 1218.70, S3 1206.55

Remark : The market remains bullish. Closing above R1 will fuel further attacks towards R2&R3 levels. A penetration for S2 will send a negative wave with selloffs and wash towards S3 level. Look forward for Us unemployment claims today at 1:30 PM GMT.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 10th Feb, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

GBP/USD Levels Awaits UK Local Data

Mr. Carney crossed wires on Thursday, via Reuters, suggested that BOG should adopt the "spirit of the millennial" and embrace varied approaches to problem-solving. PM May on the other hand, won approval from parliament's lower chamber on Wednesday to trigger Britain's exit from the European Union, defeating attempts by pro-EU lawmakers to attach extra conditions to her plan to start divorce talks by March 31. The second topic that UK is facing right now is Scottish the referendum for an independence from UK which could create a constitutional crisis just as PM May seeks to negotiate the terms of the Brexit divorce with the EU's 27 other members.

Trend : Bearish Sideways

Key levels to watch : Daily Pp 1.2523

Resistance levels : R1 1.2546, R2 1.2604, R3 1.2660

Support levels : S1 1.2442, S2 1.2374, S2 1.2285

Remark : Look forward for UK manufacturing production today at 9:30 PM GMT, which will either extend the bearish trend or make a reverse depending on the data outcome. Also, USD should be taken into consideration giving that the index has recovered yesterday.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 10th Feb, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Forex Weekly Highlights for the week, 10th Feb 2017
1- Crude oil levels dropped to the lowest during February 51.21 but managed to sustain 53 handle again.

2- Gold is bearish for the second day for the first time during February.

3- Dow Jones futures made a new record today at 20243.

4- USA president Trump and PM Japan meeting today, Friday 10th Feb, will have a major affect on markets.

5- Reserve bank of Australia RBA kept interest rates at current 1.5%.

6- Reserve Bank of New Zeland RBNZ interest rates didn't change the 1.75%.

7- Chinese Trade Balance surged 80B to previous 275B.

8- US index peeked to the highest levels during February at 100.86 and managed to reclaim the 100 level.

9- USD/JPY is bullish for the first time during February.

10- Stocks in the US traded higher than before.

11- PM May was given the authority to release article 50 for Brexit by end of march.

12- Trump and US Fed policies are on different terms.

13- US jobless claims dropped to near 43-year low.

14- European stocks are the cheapest they've been in 40 years.

15- U.S. President Donald Trump changed tack and agreed to honor the "one China" policy during a phone call with China's leader Xi Jinping. Reuters

16- OPEC is showing a rare degree of discipline in sticking to its promise to slash oil production. CNN

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 14th Feb, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

EUR/USD Revives Ahead of Local Data
EUR/USD slipped slightly below the 1.06 threshold yesterday and today, for the first time in 3 weeks pressured by strong US dollar performance. Dow Jones, S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russel 2000 were on top performance yesterday, all pushed higher yesterday and along with it US Index scoring a 101.11 Feb-fresh-highs. EUR index was on opposite attitude, hitting 86.42 three weeks low, pulling EUR/USD behind as the pair bottomed at 1.0591 Feb-fresh-lows. Currently the cable is trading 1.0619, slightly above its Daily Pp 1.0615.

Trend : Bearish Sideways

Key levels to watch : Daily Pp 1.0615

Resistance levels : R1 1.0650, R2 1.0706, R3 1.0750, R4 1.0795

Support levels : S1 1.0578, S2 1.0523, S3 1.0475, S4 1.0420

Remark : Last week and yesterday's slip triggers further negative attitude at the pair and a warning for secondary selloffs. Stalling below 1.0600 level will send a negative shock wave which could result in further selloffs and wash towards S2&S3 levels. On the other hand, closing above R1 will fuel further attacks towards R2 level at which the cable will shift to bullish momentum. Look forward for US data today and tomorrow at 1:30 PM and Yellen speech today as it's the main key player (Fundamentals) in the market.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 14th Feb, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

GBP/USD Confirms Bearish Momentum, US Data in Focus

GBP/USD slipped the 1.2500 threshold moments ago dragged by negative UK data, not meeting expectations. Consumer Price Index CPI scored 1.8% with forecasts at 1.9%. The pair made a test at first support 1.2479 with failure, clocked a low 1.2479, supported by strong US dollar performance as the US index maintained strong levels at 100.86 intraday. The cable is set to go further test today as US released Producer Price Index at 1:30 PM GMT, shortly followed by a speech by head of US Fed at 3:00 PM GMT.

Trend : Bearish Sideways

Key levels to watch : Daily Pp 1.2512

Resistance levels : R1 1.2547, R2 1.2594, R3 1.2648

Support levels : S1 1.2479, S2 1.2426, S3 1.2376

Remark : The market remains bearish due to current strong US Dollar, but look forward for US data and Yellen Speech today as they have a huge impact on US index levels.


Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 15th Feb, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Crude Oil Slips Slightly Over OPEC Compliance Doubts
1- Crude Oil Fundamentals:

Oil prices made a minor downward correction yesterday, and continued today, after concerns aroused that OPEC cartels wont be able to sustain the high compliance on the long run so far with output cuts aimed at reining in a global fuel supply overhang. OPEC and other producers, including Russia have agreed to trim output production by almost 1.8 million bpd during the first half of 2017.

BMI Research group mentioned that OPEC with its intent production cut, was down by 1.08M bpd based on calculation at 92.8%. But it warned that a much lower compliance rate of just 40 percent by Iraq, OPEC's second biggest producer, "could prove problematic to group cohesion" as other members of the producer club will have to go beyond their targets in order to meet the overall target of 1.2 million bpd in the first half of 2017. (Reuters).

On the other hand, US with constant efforts to meet OPEC end means and recompense market shortage of possible demand, has increased drilling and oil production surged 6.5% since mid-2016 at 8.98M dpd.

Conclusion: The ebb and flow continues between OPEC and USA with opposed interest on oil price levels. OPEC has managed to increase crude oil prices since end of 2016 and beginning 2017 at $55.22 high, on average 33 days at $52.57. The US efforts has only managed to curb oil price not to exceed $58-$62 as OPEC's target and analysts forecasts. Add to that, recent industrial global growth in the US, and China leaves one but only wonder how will the US play along with OPEC and the growing or increasing market demand for oil.

Remark : Look forward for US crude oil inventories today at 3:30 PM GMT as they tend to have a huge impact on oil technical levels.
2- Technical levels:

Trend: Bullish Sideways

Daily Pp : 53.22

Resistance levels : R1 53.21, R2 53.62 , R3 54.17

Support levels : S1 52.70, S2 52.21, S3 51.76

Remark : Look forward for US crude inventories today at 3:30 PM GMT. A penetration for R1 level will fuel further bullish waves towards R2 and stalling above it will confirm R3 level with success. On the other hand closing above S2 level is needed to shift trend and market will turn bearish.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 15th Feb, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Gold Earns Further Immunity Ahead of US Data
Gold has successfully sustained the 1220 threshold yesterday after positive US Producer Price Index release. The yellow metal dipped to 1221.95 low, then managed to peek again to 1231.11, currently XAUUSD trading 1226 intraday. Although US stocks are on top performance and Dow Jones pushed for a higher record today at 20550, lifting US Index today at 101.48 two-weeks-fresh-highs, gold is maintaining high levels due to US political uncertainties. Gold immunity will be subject for second test today as US releases Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retails sales, both at 1:30 GMT. In addition to US data today, Mrs. Yellen will appear again at 3:00 PM GMT with possible repetition of yesterday's scenario about US Fed rate hikes.

Trend : Bullish Sideways

Key levels to watch : Daily Pp 1226.50

Resistance levels : R1 1230.80, R2 1240.53, R3 1249.52, R4 1259.63

Support levels : S1 1221.81, S2 1212.08, S3 1202.72, S4 1193.36

Remark : Look forward for US data today in addition to Yellen speech as they decide USD levels. A setback from R1 is an indication for additional rallies and a penetration for R1 level will fuel further demand for gold and closing above R2 levels is an alarm for R3&R4 to get ready. On the other hand, closing under S1 level will increase further selloffs and wash towards S2 then S3 level at which the metal will turn bearish.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 16th Feb, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

USD/JPY Loses Bullish Traction Ahead of further US Data
USD/JPY rallied 109 pips yesterday and clocked a high 114.95 after strong US Data released positive CPI 0.6% and Retail Sales 0.4% pushing US index at 101.75 high. The pair failed to withhold strong gains, and dipped to 113.76 low today after US index collapsed to 100.84. BOJ's Kuroda crossed wires today warning that low interest rates may sow seeds of new financial crises. He also mentioned that many central banks like BOJ, US Fed, and ECB, have adopted unconventional monetary easing steps since the global financial crisis in 2008 Facing low inflation and tepid economic growth. Currently the Pair is trading at 113.90 intraday.

USD/JPY and US index levels awaits today US economic data today with main focus on Unemployment Claims and Building Permits for US Dollars. All data are scheduled for a release at 1:30 PM GMT.

Trend : Bullish Sideways

Key levels to watch : Daily Pp 114.32

Resistance levels : R1 114.38, R2 114.86, R3 115.60, R4 116.15

Support levels : S1 113.72, S2 113.30, S3 112.51, S4 111.94

Remark : Look forward for US Data today with expectations for higher volatility shortly before and after data release. Closing below S2 levels is an indication for a reverse trend to bearish momentum. Stalling above R1 level will spark further attacks at R3 level.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 16th Feb, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Australian Dollar touches new year highs after strong local data, US Data Eyed

AUD/USD extended bullish momentum on Asian trading sessions taking advantage of two elements. First by positive Australian unemployment rate at 5.7%, second by collapsing US dollar as US index plunged today at 100.72 low. The pair clocked 2017-fresh-highs at 0.7731, tripped shortly with 0.7692 low and currently fighting to reclaim the 0.7700 level as the cable is trading at 0.7698 intraday. Markets are anticipating US data today with Unemployment rate and Building Permits in focus, both scheduled at 1:30 PM GMT.

Trend : Bullish Sideways

Key levels to watch : Daily Pp 0.7687

Resistance levels : R1 0.7725 , R2 0.7773, R3 0.7850

Support levels : S1 0.7680, S2 0.7608, S3 0.7526

Remark : look forward for US data release today which will bring high volatility in the market. Closing above R1 will fuel fresh buying and further attacks to R2 & R3 level. Stalling below S1 is an alarm for further selloffs and wash towards S2, then S3. Below S3 level is an indication that the pair has ended the jet ride and the momentum has turned bearish.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 17th Feb, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Sterling Builds Expectation on Local Retail Sales
GBP/USD surges for the second consecutive trading session fueled by dipping US dollar as US Index drops to 100.40 today. As a result, the pair rallied yesterday from 1.2453, and clocked a high today at 1.2511, currently the pair is trading 1.2502, struggling to withhold the 1.2500 level.

Fundamentals : GBP awaits today local Retail Sales at 9:30 AM GMT which will either arm Sterling facing recent recovering US Dollar, or shorten GBP/USD depending on the result.

Technicals : Key levels to watch : Daily Pp 1.2489

Resistance levels : R1 1.2520, R2 1.2557, R3 1.2597

Support levels : S1 1.2482, S2 1.2483, S3 1.2405

Remark : The cable trend remains uptrend due to weaker US Dollar. The main gear for GBP/USD today is UK Retail Sales at 9:30 AM GMT. A break above R1 will spark additional attacks towards R2 level. Closing below S1 will increase further selloffs and wash towards S2 at which trend will shift bearish, then S3. Be careful from setbacks as the price tend to make a test on S and R levels.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.