Daily Market Analysis by FxGrow

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 11th April, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

EUR/USD Remains Under Pressure by Stronger U.S Dollar

EUR/USD extended the bearish trend for the 12th consecutive session and has been confined with 37-pips price action since yesterday. The pair clocked a 1.0620 high today and remains under pressure by recovering US Dollar as the Index peeked to 101.24 high yesterday. Today U.S Index retreated to 100.73 low, showing signs of weakness following Yellen speech yesterday as the market still not digesting the outcome. Yellen and Co. abandoned the support for U.S Dollar, and left the Index to trade based on U.S upcoming economic events, stressing that U.S economy is doing well overall.

Technical :

Trend : Bearish Sideways

Resistance levels: R1 1.0622, R2 1.0653, R3 1.0705

Support levels: S1 1.0570, S2 1.0537, S3 1.0486

Remark : The market is bearish and Friday's drop out from sideways congestion around 1.07+/- alerts for fro another aggressive selling wave to reach S2. Any corrective congestion trapped within the lower half of Friday's range will stay aligned for selloffs. A close above R3 level is needed to spark bullish forces and trend reversal.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 12th April, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Crude Oil Rallies Over Geopolitical Tension, Awaiting U.S Inventories

Fundamentals:

Crude oil prices added +1.28 profit bp this week +2.44% with 53.58 April-2017-fresh-highs. On March 2017, oil prices fell to the lowest at 47.07 over concerns of market glut driven by intensive U.S shale drilling and overloaded storage. Last week, U.S attack on Al-Shaayrat airfield sparked fears in market with possible consequences that yet might come in coming days and this week, tension aroused further more as U.S battleships approaches North Korean offshore, and the Koreans responded with a sharper ascending tone, threatening to use Nuclear muscle power, in case they are provoked.

On the other hand, Saudi Arabia told OPEC cartel that they have the good intention of extending OPEC-deal that was constructed in Vienna, late 2016. Add to that, troubles with Libyan oil filed still continues. Last week, there were also concerns about a supply outage at a field in the United Kingdom's North Sea that feeds into an international benchmark price.

According to OPEC's sources quoted by Reuters, OPEC's 11 states with oil output targets comply 104% with curbs in March. Also, OPEC oil output data from secondary sources may be revised before publication on Wednesday. On Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute said U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 1.3 million barrels last week, following a 1.8 million drop seen in the previous report. The weekly inventory report from the Energy Information Administration due to be released today during the NA session now has the potential to record a drop as well.

Summary: Given the geopolitical tension in the middle eat and the ugly flirting between U.S and North Korea, crude levels has the potential to break higher. Add to that, Saudi Arabia message of six months extension desire which is a clear message for April 22th 2017 OPEC next-meeting, will support oil bullish forces more. We look forward for U.S Crude Inventories today at 2:30 PM GMT.

Technical Overview:

Trend: Bullish/sideways

Resistance levels: R1 54.11, R2 54.79, R3 55.63

Support levels: S1 52.52, S2 51.67, R3 50.71

Remark: The market has turned short term bullish. A close over 53.65 is needed to continue pressing advances. Be guard for a back off from 53.65 into a short term swing high. Corrections should fight to hold along 51.00. A close Below S3 level is an indication for shifting course trend to bearish.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 12th April, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

USD/CAD Extends Losses Ahead of BOC's Rate Decision

USD/CAD extended the bearish momentum for the 5th consecutive session with a 1.3306 low today and stingy -33-pips price action. Loonie sharp tone was supported by collapsing U.S Dollar as the Index clocked 100.50 low today and crude oil bullish levels with 53.74 high today, considering Canada is a major oil producer. Canadian Dollar awaits today BOC interest rate decision and forecasts are highly bet to leave it at current 0.5% which could create a pessimistic wave for the Loonie, but the pair could receive a lift by Gov. Poloz depending on the speech tone.

Fundamentals:

1- CAD - BOC Interest Rate Decision today at 2:00 PM GMT.

2- CAD - BOC's Gov. Poloz Speech at 3:15 PM GMT.

Technical overview:

Trend : Bullish Sideways

Resistance levels: R1 1.3376, R2 1.3432, R3 1.3515

Support levels : S1 1.3294, S2 1.3231, S3 1.3166

Remark : Market to consider the pair bullish despite weekly losses due to strong relatively strong USD. A break below S1 will increase selloffs and wash towards S2 level. Dips should fight S1 level. Closing under S2 level is a signal for trend reversal and market to consider the pair bearish. On the other hand, closing above R1 level will spark bullish forces towards R2 level. Expect high volatility with sideways destination shortly after BOC rate decision. Crude levels are vital for the Loonie.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 13th April, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Gold Tweets Higher Over Collapsing U.S Dollar, Eyes on U.S Data

For the second week, Trump interfered, forbidding gold bullish forces to shift course and shoot lower. Last week, an attack on Syria with Tomahawk missiles, creating uncertainty and political tension in the middle eat. But Trump didn't stop at this level, he amplified the compass and headed east towards North Korea, increasing further tension, and along with it, gold was the ultimate choice as sacred haven for market with 1279.96 high.

Yesterday, Trump broke his fasting silence with a hint that U.S Dollar is too strong causing U.S Index to shed $0.5 within 15 minutes, and today, U.S Index anchored at 99.91 low after clocking 101.24 on Monday. As a result, gold added $17 additional profits this week with a 1288.03 high, with expectation of bullish dilatation as tails yet to follow Trump's tweets. April is the lucky month for the yellow metal with $49 profits and +34.8% gains. XAUUSD can officially consider Trump as a strong ally and can count on Trump when desperate measures fail.

Today, U.S Data has two major news with high impact, Producer Price Index PPI and Unemployment Rate, both scheduled for a release at 12:30 PM GMT, and market is anticipating the result and how Trump will tank U.S Dollar again.

Technical Overview:

Trend: Bullish

Resistance levels: R1 1290.55, R2 1302.05, R3 1312.05

Resistance levels: S1 1271.55, S2 1262.70, S3 1253.03

Comment: Market to consider gold bullish due to the above fundamentals, but U.S data today could tackle rising cable or contribute to gold's bullish forces further. The pattern hints for a larger upswing if we see trade accelerate over 1285+, aiming at R2&R3 as a target. Any corrective dips should fight to hold over previous congestion at S1 level to keep strong bull forces. A penetration for S2 level in an alert for trend reversal, but only a close below 1249 is a 100% confirmation for bearish momentum.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 13th April, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Japanese Yen Surges Over Tanked U.S Dollar, U.S Data Eyed

USD/JPY extended the bearish momentum with 108.76 18-Dec-2016-fresh-lows supported by crisp U.S Dollar performance and upbeat Chinese Trade Balance. Overall, political tension starting with attacks on Syria and U.S battleship approaching North Korean offshore added political and economical uncertainties, hence Japanese Yen is a sacred refuge. Add to that, Trump comment yesterday that U.S Dollar is relatively too strong, tackled the Index to 99.91 low today with expectations that negative tails will follow such surprising deceleration. Trump also mentioned that question marks are placed next to Yellen as nomination for next U.S Fed presidency. Along came with it. Chinese trade balance early this morning scored $23.93B surplus versus +$10B expectations, adding more weight to Asian currencies.

U.S Data today will give a better clue on how the pair will trade for the coming hours.

Fundamentals:

1 -USD - Producer Price Index today at 12:30 PM GMT.

2- USD - Unemployment Rate today at 12:30 PM GMT.

Technical overview:

Trend: Bearish Sideways

Resistance levels: R1 110.10, R2 111.04, R3 111.93

Support levels: S1 108.59, S2 107.75, S3 106.95

Comment: The market has turned bearish at the moment but keep an eyes on U.S Index levels. Trades below R1 will sustain bearish forces. A penetration for S1 level will increase selloffs and wash towards S2&S3 levels. On the other hand, a break above R1 level signs for larger bull waves R2 level at which, the pair will shift to bullish.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 14th April, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

EUR/USD Hovers With Tight Range, Eyes On U.S Data
EUR/USD traded flat with stingy 22-pips price action and clocked a high 1.0627, still below 50-SMA (D1) at 1.0663, with a cautious tone persisting across the financial markets against the back drop of the geopolitical tensions surrounding North Korea and today's U.S Mother of all Bombs release on Afghanistan for the first time.

On other hand, French elections knocking on doors with the first round on April 23 2017 and bets are placed by markets between Macron and Le Pen (Anti EU), expectations of high volatility before and after results. Will the EU witness another departure after Brexit and now Frexit?

The pair awaits U.S Data today with Consumer Price Index and Retail Sales in focus. Forecasts for CPI is booked at 0% compared to 0.1% previously, whilst Retail sales scored 0.1% earlier and predictions are left untouched as previously. CPI and Retail sales will impact U.S Index highly, but these two data are vital for inflation and U.S Fed will be watching closely results which will either set the hawkish to dovish tone for next FOMC meeting.

Fundamentals:

1- USD - CPI and Retails sales today both scheduled at 12:30 PM GMT.

Technical overview:

Trend : Bearish

Resistance levels: R1 1.0648 R2 1.0699, R3 1.0723

Support levels : S1 1.0589, S2 1.0550, S3 1.0518

Comment: The market is still in bear trend and the back off on Thursday cautions for pressured action early this week to test last week's basing levels at 1.0637. A close under 1.0637 indicates a further selloff towards S1 level. Trade may creep back higher, but a push over 1.0709 is needed to foster rallies to challenge 1.0738 for a short term bottoming upturn. U.S Data today will draw a better picture on how the cable shall perform.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 19th April, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Sterling Hikes Over Optimism Driven By Snap Early Elections, Awaiting Parliament Approval

UK PM Theresa May stole the thunder yesterday despite current political tension hovering over the globe first by a sudden scheduling for media press, second by surprising call for UK's early elections by 8th of June, although the lady had previously disapproved such move. As a result, Sterling was on a chaotic ride with an incline destination, surging +390-pips as daily market action and GBP/USD clocked 1.2905 4th-Oct-2017 fresh highs with a reminder of Brexit's volatility before and after the referendum. U.S Dollar yesterday soared and has seen pale as the U.S Index plunged -$0.94 with April-fresh-lows at 99.34 facing sharp British Pound. Currently the pair trades 1.2826 intraday and has over passed 200 SMA at 1.2623.

PM May's move called for UK citizens for once and all, open a new page, let the people decide, and put Brexit behind. The house of Commons will vote today for May's proposal with signs of approval which should boost GBP/USD higher. On the other hand, any rejection could result of a collapsing Sterling and digesting yesterday's gains.

Fundamentals:

1- GBP - UK House of Commons decision on PM May early election today.

2- USD - Unemployment Claims tomorrow at 12:30 PM GMT.

3- GBP - BOE's Gov. Carney speech tomorrow at 3:30 PM and 4:30 PM GMT.

Technical Overview:

Trend: Bullish

Resistance levels: R1 1.2938, R2 1.3022, R3 1.3154

Support levels: S1 1.2767, S2 1.2683, S3 1.2595

Summary: The explosive rally signals a significant upside breakout from a coiling congestion pattern on a weekly chart, creating a target at R3. The strong close yesterday alerts for a dilation for bullish forces. Be careful from resistance at R2 +/-. Any congestion over 1.2721 will likely develop a bull flag or staging level for rallies. A close below S3 is needed for trend reversal. Be aware of setbacks as a test on S&R level due to high volatility for the cable. PM early election proposal is the main gear for GBP/USD movement.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 19th April, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Crude oil Slips Over API Report, U.S Inventories in Focus

Crude Oil levels dipped -$0.76 yesterday with a 52.09 low, a minor downward correction after API report showed that U.S. crude stockpiles fell less than expected in the latest week while gasoline stockpiles grew unseasonably, but markets remained bloated. On Wednesday, oil showed stability with 52.61 high after OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo mentioned that all oil producers taking part in a supply-cut treaty are committed to deliver global inventories down to the industry's five year average and restoring stability to the market.

OPEC and non-OPEC producers agreed in December to cut supplies for six months, helping lift oil prices to about $55 a barrel after a two-year slump. OPEC will review policy for the second half of this year at a May 25 meeting.

Barkindo, crossed wires in the United Arab Emirates, saying that compliance data in March is showing better conformity by the oil producers with the agreement than in February.

OPEC with other producers like Russia, has agreed to curb output by almost 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) during the first half of the year. Saudi crude exports dropped to 6.96M bpd during February, from 7.7 million bpd in January, according to (Jodi). Its production, however, rose to 10 million bpd in February, up from 9.75 million bpd in January, as domestic refiners processed more oil. (Reuters).

Trump recently waived that Iran's nuclear treaty will be revised, but ever since sanctions were lifted against Tehran, crude oil exports has doubled and more which kept market oil supplies overloaded and contributed to oil bearish levels, at that, Trump has the time to consider any move towards Iran, since it's of U.S interest to maintain lower oil levels.

Look forward for U.S Inventories today which will impact crude levels for the next coming days.

Technical overview:

Trend: Bullish sideways

Resistance levels: R1 52.67, R2 53.22, R3 54.05

Support levels : S1 52.08 , S2 51.48, S3 50.78

Comment: The market remains short term bullish with choppy trading. Closing above R1 will sustain bullish forces and projects for a larger hike towards R2&R3. A close below S1 alerts for futher selloffs with congestion and wash towards S2&S3. Below S3, market will shift bearish.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 20th April, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Gold Retreats As Political Tension Fades Away, Eyes on U.S Data

Gold shed -$16.79 yesterday with a 1273.81 weekly fresh lows due to aggressive selling and abandoning buying positions, still above 200 D1 SMA at 1255. Last week and Monday's rallies supported by geopolitical tension, lifted gold to 1295.27 2017-highs. Although political and economical uncertainties has temporary lulled, the coming days will witness arousing events. first from the French elections round this Sunday, to PM May's call for early British elections which was approved yesterday and on May the 2nd, the Parliament will be dissolved. Add to that, Trump's and his unpredictable tweets and propaganda media announcements are always on Stand-buy position, could provoke gold yet again as traders leans to the yellow metal as a sacred haven substitute.

Fundamentals:

1- USD - Unemployment Claims today at 12:30 PM GMT.

2- French Elections This Sunday.

Technical Overview:

Trend: Bullish Sideways

Resistance levels: R1 1284.02, R2 1295.80, R3 1310.81

Support levels : S1 1271.15, S2 1264.28, S3 1256.64

Comment: Gold remains bullish despite yesterday's minor down correction. Staying above S1 sustains bullish forces and calls for additional rallies and a penetration for R2 level will dilate further gains towards R3. The other scenario, longing below S1 level will increase selloffs with congestion and wash towards S2&S3. A close below S3 calls for trend reversal and market to consider gold bearish. Keep an eye on U.S Index levels and French elections this Sunday with end results will have an impact on Gold.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 21st April, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

All You Need to Know About French Elections And Its Impact on EUR/USD Levels

French elections are knocking on doors and bets are already placed by markets on every candidate and their agendas. Now, whoever qualifies for the second round, will have a huge impact on market despite the outcome. the race is tight, and on Sunday, 23rd of April, French citizens will elect two candidates out of four who shall be eligible for the next round on May the 7th. Although this may seem irrelevant, but market should pay attention that UK parliament will be dissolved on May the 2nd, and if both dates ( May 2nd & May 7th), combined together, market will be chaotic taking into consideration UK and France, two nations representing top ten markets contributing to global economy.

This election comes within a year of the unexpected Brexit vote in the UK and the election of populist Donald Trump as president of the United States last November.

In France, the possibilities are no less dramatic with the steady advance of the far-right National Front's Marine Le Pen taking advantage of recent threats and terror attacks on Europe.

Note: There are eleven French candidates running on April 23rd, but according to polls, it's more likely that the four candidates; Le Pen, Macron, Mélenchon, and Fillon being triumphed or qualifying for second round on May 7th 2017. In case one of the four nominees managed to secure more than 50% of French voters, then the second round on May 7th will be discarded and a winner will be announced

First, let's identify the four French candidates and their agenda, after that, the picture will purify and how the market will head especially for the EURO coming future.

1- What does Le Pen want:

• Negotiation with Brussels on a new EU, followed by a referendum.
• "Automatic" expulsion of illegal immigrants and legal immigration cut to 10,000 per year following an immediate total moratorium.
• "Extremist" mosques closed and priority to French nationals in social housing.
• Retirement age fixed at 60 and 35-hour week assured.

2- What does Macron want:

• €50bn (£43bn; $53bn) public investment plan to cover job-training, exit from coal and shift to renewable energy, infrastructure and modernisation.
• Reimbursement of full cost of glasses, dentures and hearing aids.
• Big cut in corporation tax and more leeway for companies to renegotiate 35-hour week.
• Cut in jobless rate to 7% (now 9.7%).
• Ban on mobile phone use in schools for under-15s and a €500 culture pass for 18 year olds.

3- What does Mélenchon want:

• Voting from age of 16 and a "Sixth Republic" to replace the existing presidential system.
• Constituent assembly to acquire greater powers, voted in by proportional representation.
• Zero homelessness and full reimbursement for prescribed health care.
• Recognize burn-out as an occupational disease.
• Sharp-tongued Mélenchon galvanizes left.
• Abandon nuclear power
• Renegotiate the terms of France’s EU membership

4- What does Fillon want:

• To scrap half a million public sector jobs and the 35-hour work week
• Removing the wealth tax (ISF)
• To strip jihadists returning from the wars in Iraq or Syria of French nationality
• Requiring parents in receipt of social allowances to agree to a "parental responsibility contract", to tackle children's absenteeism or behaviour "disrespectful of the values of the [French] republic"
• Lifting EU sanctions on Russia and helping Syrian President Bashar al-Assad defeat so-called Islamic State (IS).

Who will win?

According to pollsters, 48-year-old Le Pen, an anti-EU candidate, is expected to qualify for the second round but ultimately lose to Emmanuel Macron, 39. A Le Pen victory would send shock waves every bit as seismic as events in the UK and US, likely spelling the end of the European Union in its current form. Her victory would also domestically test the country's already strained relations with its sizable Muslim community.

What will happen to EURO?

Now we have established the above candidates and their agendas, the main concern for traders and EURO future levels are whether France will stay in EU or depart. Le Pen and Macron are more likely to qualify for the second round, but that's not the problem. Le Pen ( Anti EU ) and Macron ( Pro EU ) will still commit to EURO bear and bull forces.

Scenario 1:

If Macron was on top and Le Pen second, optimism will arouse as France will still be part of EU cartel despite Le Pen qualifying for second round taking into consideration that Macron scored more votes which should boost and energize EURO facing U.S Dollar rival.

Scenario 2:

On the other hand, if Le Pen came first and Macron second, this indicates that Le Pen odds of heading the final round will more likely increase and the doubt about Frexit will start creeping into minds, which will result in EURO collapsing.

Scenario 3:

A qualification for Mélenchon will still support French EU membership although Mélenchon calls for a reformation between France and EU treaties, but has never called for a break from EU union.

Scenario 4:

Fillon (Pro EU) supports France being part of the EU and calls lifting sanctions on Russia which should ease the tension between Europe and Russian, and this could result in an economic growth for both countries as they both benefit and EURO could boost up on positive expectations.

Technical overview:

Market will witness high volatility for EUR/USD levels especially on Monday opening trading sessions due to the French election end results. EUR/USD bullish forces could hike towards 1.100 resistance level as optimism arouses given that France will stay in the EU. On the other hand, in case EUR/USD collapses, expectations of bearish trend could bottom at 1.0450 support level. Resistance and support levels could take time to be reached depending on the consequences of the election.


Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision

 

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 24th April, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

EUR/USD Gaps Upward Over French Election Pollsters, Eyes on Local Data
EUR/USD inaugurated early trading sessions with a +190-pips upward gap, then added +2-pips and clocked 5 months a half high at 1.0918 driven by optimism aroused by yesterday's French Election first round outcome given that Macron (Pro EU) headed first with 23.7% of French voters, Le Pen (Anti EU) second 21.7%. But what really boosted EUR/USD is that Fillon (Pro EU) came third with 19.9% and has requested his supporters to add their votes to Macron, hence an EU dissociation now falls into a thin scenario but still, a second round will be conducted on May the 7th where Macron and Le Pen face each others neck to neck, and Frexit will a greasy item on the menu which will create a high volatility of the pair trading coming days, depending on how French Polls play ahead.


The pair failed to guard the 1.09 level, retreated to 1.0820 low as minor down-trend correction, currently trading 1.0864 intraday. U.S Index also gaped -$0.78 with a 98.83, adding -$2.41 losses to April the 10th 101.24 high. Although EUR/USD currently bullish, market should expect a choppy bullish and bearish sideways trade for the pair in the coming hours. Trade could be poised with shy price action in the coming 2 hours ahead of German Ifo and Buba reports, but volatility should re-kick after the release.

Fundamentals:

1- EUR -German Ifo Business Climate today at 8:00 AM GMT.

2- EUR - German Buba Monthly Report today at 10:00 AM GMT.

Technical Overview:

Trend: Bullish Sideways

Resistance levels: R1 1.0924, R2 1.0962, R3 1.1005

Support levels : S1 1.0818, S2 1.0755, S3 1.0681

Comment: The market is bullish with expectations of intensive choppy sideways trade due to the above fundamentals. Dips should fight S1. Closing above 1.08 is positive. A penetration for R1 level projects additional hikes towards R2 level. A penetration for S1 level will increase selloffs and wash towards S2 level at which below, the cable will turn bearish. Keep an eye on U.S index levels.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision

 

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 24th April, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Copper Slips Over Industrial Demand Decline

Copper extended the bearish momentum for the third consecutive weak and suffered losses amid a broad decline for industrial metals on Friday as worries over political instability and global demand prompted investors to cut bets on higher prices. Currently, copper is trading 255.65 intraday.

Investors have overestimated global growth and the impact of supply disruptions at major copper mines, said Norbert Rucker, head of commodity research at Julius Baer. Copper could slip to $5,200 a tonne in the next three months, he said.

* COPPER SUPPLY: The global refined copper market had a 51,000 tonne surplus in January, up from a 44,000 tonne surplus in January last year, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said. But the strike at the Escondida mine in February-March meant "next month's report should reflect a tighter market", analysts at ING said.

* FREEPORT EXPORTS: Freeport McMoran Inc's Indonesia unit has been granted a permit to export 1.11 million wet metric tonnes of copper concentrate until February of next year, a trade ministry official said. (Reuters).

* FREEPORT STRIKE: Freeport also warned that it would punish workers for absenteeism at its Indonesian operation, a day after one of its main unions announced plans for a one-month strike over employment conditions. (Reuters).
Technical Overview:

Trend: Bearish

Resistance levels: R1 257.01, R2 259.36, R3 261.69

Support levels : S1 254.04, S2 249.35, S3 246.10

Comment: The market is triggering a downturn from congestion and targets a stretch down under 249.00. A close below 249.00 is bearish. Any correction should stay contained under 260.00 and use congestion to bear flag. A close above R3 level is needed for trend reversal and shift to higher prices.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision

 

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 25th April, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Aussie Declines Despite Weaker U.S Dollar, Eyes On Local CPI
8 AM GMT, Australian dollar is showing weakness with 0.7530 weekly low with -41-pips price action, slightly (3-pips) below 200 SMA D1. Although U.S Dollar plunged today to 98.85 low, the Aussie failed to take advantage of current pale U.S Index. AUD/USD levels awaits local CPI tomorrow and on previous session, Australian CPI booked 0.5% and forecasts are expected to be 0.6%. U.S Consumer Confidence today also could add more pressure on the Aussie as U.S Dollar reacts on the outcome.

Latest inflation report released by Reserve Bank of Australia RBA indicates an inflation of 1.5% on Dec 2017. RBA Gov. Lowe will cross wires on Asian session this Thursday, and taking into consideration that CPI is highly positive as forecasts, and inflation less than 2%, expectations of a hawkish tone by Lowe is high where the Gov. could extend previous press conferences laying out a strong Australian economy which should re-boost the Aussie.

Fundamentals:

1- USD - Consumer Confidence today at 2:00 PM GMT.

2- AUD - Consumer Price Index tomorrow at 1:30 AM GMT.

3- AUD - RBA Gov. Lowe speech opening session on Thursday.

4- USD - Core Durable Goods Order and Unemployment Claims both at 12:30 PM GMT on Thursday.

Technical Overview:

Trend : Sideways

Resistance levels : R1 0.7605, R2 0.7672, R3 0.7745

Support levels : S1 0.7505, S2 0.7439 , S3 0.7355

Comment: Expectation of high volatility for AUD/USD due to the colorful economic events. Gov. Lowe speech will set the tone the Aussie, as for U.S Dollar, the U.S Data will determine how U.S Index will perform the next hours.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 03rd May, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Crude oil Slips Over Signs of Increasing U.S Oil Inventories And Weaker OPEC Compliance

Crude Oil prices plunged to $47.47 low on Tuesday, adding additional losses for this week with -$1.80, almost 3%, and on Wednesday, crude scored $47,80 low, currently trading 48.18 intraday. Crude bearish forces were the result of two factors.

1- U.S. production increased by more than 450,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the past five months ending in Feb, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Total U.S. crude production has increased from a recent low of 8.567M bpd in Sep to 9.031M bpd in February (“Petroleum Supply Monthly”, EIA, April 28). Production continued rising in March and Apr, and now stands at over 9.2M bpd, according to weekly estimates published by the agency (“Weekly Petroleum Status Report”, EIA, April 26).

The rapid recovery in U.S. output is one of the factors making market re-balancing slower than OPEC anticipated. Most of the increase so far has come from non-shale producers in the Gulf of Mexico and Alaska. But the massive increase in the number of rigs drilling onshore should ensure shale output rises substantially in the remainder of 2017. Gulf of Mexico output rose by 228,000 bpd in the five months to February, while onshore production from the lower 48 states increased by 175,000 bpd and Alaska’s output rose 61,000 bpd. (Reuters).

2- OPEC oil output fell for a fourth straight month in April, a Reuters survey found on Tuesday, as top exporter Saudi Arabia kept production below its target while maintenance and unrest cut production in exempt nations Nigeria and Libya. But more oil from Angola and higher UAE output than originally thought helped OPEC compliance with its production-cutting deal slip to 90 percent from a revised 92 percent in March, according to Reuters surveys.

Eyes are focused now on May 25th where OPEC will meet again in Vienna where they will decide on extension for end of 2017. OPEC had already met on the end of 2016 where they agreed to cut oil production till June 2017 with efforts to curb global oil supply, which resulted in in highest levels for crude oil at $55.22 bp on Jan 2017.

There seems to a be a general consensus to do so, Khalid Al-Falih, the Saudi minister of energy and industry and the de-facto OPEC leader, said last week. The United Arab Emirates insisted Tuesday that all participants -- which include some non-OPEC nations such as Russia -- need to commit to the effort. If OPEC meeting on 25th May was successful, market should expect a new crude record for 2016 aimed at $60 bp.

Today U.S Inventories will be published at 2:30 PM GMT which should bring new perspectives for crude levels.

Technical Overview:

Trend: Down / Sideways

Resistance levels: R1 49.22, R2 50.17, R3 51.15

Support levels: S1 47.51, S2 46.94, S3 46.17

Comment: The market remains bearish but U.S crude inventories today should bring new perspectives for oil levels. A penetration for R1 level projects further bullish hikes with targets R2&R3 level. Closing below S1 will increase further selloffs and wash towards S2 level. A close above R2 level alerts for trend reversal and only closing above R3 confirms that market has shifted upward and crude to be considered bullish.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 03rd May, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Heads Up For FOMC Meeting Tonight
Market is poised with confusion about FOMC meeting tonight and possible outcomes. It is largely expected more than 90%, that US Fed are to leave current Interest Rates at current 1.00% without any changes which should send a short-term negative reaction, awaiting FOMC statement.

Now we have established the fact the U.S Central Banks will not touch the rates tonight, the statement and the following press conference will take center stage and as policymakers seem to shirt the path of monetary and fiscal from rates to the balance sheet. Yellen and Co. will cautiously choose their words with efforts to withhold U.S Dollar from further declines.

Last March during FOMC meeting, Yellen mentioned that changes on the balance sheet will depend on economic conditions, and latest data including weak GDP last week and poor macroeconomic readings have lead markets to doubt that the central bank will raise rates two more times this year, with three "live" meetings ahead that could offer such outcome: June, September and December.

If the FOMC meeting hinted that market should not expect a hike during June, markets will assume that chances for additional rate increase this year will be left at one taking into consideration that the U.S Fed will unlikely to raise rates on two consecutive sessions. This would result in a negative impact for U.S Dollar. But in case June is left on the rate menu with high odds, a chances for two hikes including this June and end of Year 2017, this should handle boosting the U.S Dollar for the short-run.

A hawkish scenario is unlikely, and unless the Fed clearly indicates that two rate hikes are still on the table, dollar gains are likely to be short-term and limited, not enough to revert the sour tone that surrounds current pale U.S Dollar. Last U.S Fed hike that resulted in 0.25%, it was seen that U.S Dollar dipping instead of surging. This was justified that March hike was largely expected and market traded on " Buy the rumor, sell the fact".

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 04th May, 2017
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

Sterling Retreats as U.S Dollar Strengthen, Eyes on Local PMI
Yesterday, market was cheerful and satisfied with FOMC statement despite the fact that U.S Interest Rates were left unchanged at current 1.00 as market were already expecting it. June odds were increased up to 75%, as a result, GBP/USD had to submit to bullish U.S Dollar with -82-pips price action and 1.2864 low.

Today, GBP/USD clocked 1.2850 May-fresh-lows as U.S Index still under the positive shock with 99.32 high. Currently the pair is trading 1.2857 intraday with expectations of additional declines, but the pair should withhold the bullish trend unless GBP/USD breaks the 1.27 handle.

On the other hand, PM May has launched an extraordinary attack on Brussels, accusing European Union politicians and officials of seeking to disrupt the general election and willing Brexit to fail in a combative address delivered from Downing Street.

Speaking after returning from Buckingham Palace to inform the Queen that parliament had been dissolved for the 8 June poll, May delivered an unexpectedly antagonistic speech, urging voters to “give me your backing to fight for Britain”.

UK is set to release local Services PMI today along with U.S Unemployment claims which will give a better outlook on how the pair will perform the coming hours.

Fundamentals:

1- GBP - Services PMI today at 8:30 AM GMT.

2- USD - Unemployment Claims today at 12:30 PM GMT.

3- USD - NFP - Non-Farm Payrolls tomorrow at 12:30 PM GMT.

Technical overview:

Trend: Bullish Sideways

Resistance levels: R1 1.2966, R2 1.3071, R3 1.3176

Support levels: S1 1.2774, S2 1.2678, S3 1.2578

Comment: The pair remains bullish with choppy sideways trading taking into consideration current strong U.S Dollar status. Dips should fight S1 level. Closing above 1.2760 is positive. A penetration for S1 level will increase selloffs and wash towards S2 level. Closing above R1 level projects further bullish waves towards R2 level. The pair to be considered bearish if market closed below S2 level.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 04th May, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

How Will The French Presidential Election Affect Forex Market?

Time is ticking, French Presidential Election is knocking on doors and this Sunday, French citizens will have the upper hand as they will decide the EU coming future. For once and for all, Frexit will either re-surface or lay to rest depending on the final outcome this Sunday, May 7th 2017. Bare in mind, whoever wins, there will be consequences on the financial market in general, but EURO will take center stage.

Two candidates ( Macron and Le Pen ) has qualified for the final round, and latest polls indicates that Macron is ahead by 60% and Le Pen is behind by 40% taking into consideration that Fillon who came third in the first round has requested his supporters to add their voices to Macron, and Melenchon as left-wing voters are committed to prevent Le Pen from claiming the rein. But that's election, and nothing is guaranteed, and if we go back a bit in history to U.S elections, polls gave Clinton the priority, and market saw Trump triumph as shocking. So below, we will place the possible scenario and the outcomes despite what polls are signaling and indicating although their is one major difference, the gap poll between Macron and Le Pen is way wider than the gap poll that was between Clinton and Trump.

Scenario one ( Macron Winning the French Election):

Market is already priced in on the fact Macron is winning, and during the first round, as Macron was heading the polls, EURO gaped upward, hitting five months highs, and if Macron is officially declared a president, optimism will increase further more pushing EURO to higher levels with 1.10 or 1.11 as target. Macron calls for a sharper Pro-EU tone and sees EU as a whole nation, which should push EU stocks and CAC40 even higher. On the other hand, Gold gapped downward and later on fell by $30 as political tension seemed to fade away.

Scenario two ( Le Pen winning the French Election ):

Before we discuss what will happen to the market, first lets briefly state what Le Pen stands for. Le Pen represent the total opposite of Macron and sees France as an independent nation, calling for a referendum by French citizens to vote for a departure from European Cartel following the path of UK voting for Brexit. We all remember what happened on Brexit and how the EURO and British Pound was on a roller coaster. If Le Pen was declared winner, then fear will creep into minds and gossips about Frexit will be on the French menu. Take at that, EURO will start the process of depreciating gradually with 1.600 and 1.500 as target as early signs. The more Frexit approaches and becomes a reality, markets could witness even lower levels than 1.500. European stocks will plunge as well CAC40, and the biggest winner will be gold as geopolitics play its role in pushing the yellow metal into higher levels for 2017, being a sacred haven substitute.

French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen crossed the wires last minutes today, via Reuters, noting that Italy would welcome her efforts to renegotiate the Euro, in case she wins the election.

The below fourth and fifth scenarios are less likely to happen, but part of analysis, it's our duty to include all possible outcomes.

Scenario Three: It's never about who wins:

It's never about who wins despite the fact Le Pen or Macron being victorious. The fact the France has a new president will push EURO higher. During U.S elections, market and analysts were divided with different opinions on how will the market perform and will happen to U.S Dollar taking into consideration what Clinton and Trump, each of them stand for. The fact there was a president in the oval office boosted U.S Dollar and American Stocks rallied, add to that, Dow Jones hit news records. Taking at this, we could see a possible scenario on the short run, but as time narrows down with each president agendas (long run), we will see how EURO and EU Stocks will perform depending on impact level of each president agenda.

Scenario Four: Market is already Priced in that Macron is a Winner:

This is the least possible scenario. Market has placed its bets that Macron is a winner, and has traded on this fact. The optimism is expired, EURO and EU Stocks has already peeked as if France is staying in the EU, so it will bring nothing new to traders mind. EUR and EU Stocks will stay put and even make a minor correction upward or downward. Later economic data will shape up the Forex market including EURO, EU Stcoks, and CAC40, depending on the outcome (Economic Data) as part of ebb and flow between currencies.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 05th May, 2017
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

EUR/USD Inclines As U.S Dollar Declines, Eyes on U.S Data

EUR/USD extended the bullish momentum for the eleven consecutive sessions and prolonged the intensity tone facing crisp U.S Dollar. Yesterday the pair rallied +113-pips with 1.0987 high and added 3-pips to clock 1.0990 2017-fresh-highs, surpassing 5-EMA (D1) at 1.0941. U.S Data yesterday was positive which gave a lift to U.S Index up to 99.33 high, but the Index was tackled by Republicans as they voted a green light on Trump's health-care-bill which was opposed by Democrats, leaving the market divided. As a result, U.S index re-collapsed at 98.54 low, and EUR Index was seen out performing with a 2017 new record 89.07.

The pair is still energized by coming French Presidential Elections this Sunday, May 7th, and as polls supports Macron (Pro EU) 60%, and Le Pen (Anti EU) 40%, which should boost the pair further during the coming hours.

Today, U.S Data is loaded, but the main focus will be on NFP, Non-Farm Payrolls, followed by Yellen speech at night. Yesterday positive data, added to today's coming data will set the tone for Mrs. Yellen with expectations of a hawkish tone taking into consideration how U.S data performed yesterday and will today, with efforts to boost U.S Index levels higher. Market has seen Trump favoring a lower U.S Dollar, and the fact that Trump and U.S Feds are not in accord grows clearer as events occurs.

Fundamentals:

1- USD - Average Hourly Earnings m/m + Non-Farm Payrolls + Unemployment Rates today at 12:30 PM GMT.

2- USD - Yellen (Head of U.S Fed) speech today at 5:30 PM GMT.

Technical Overview:

Trend: Bullish Sideways

Resistance Levels: R1 1.1002, R2 1.1068, R3 1.1143, R4 1.1205

Support levels: S1 1.0933, S2 1.0859, S3 1.0818, S4 1.0738

Comment: The pair remains bullish with sideways trading. U.S Data today will make a minor correction either positive or negative depending on the outcome. The market pattern gives bull signals for the start of a larger advance. Current congestion over the previous Monday's gap reinforces the upturn and provides a staging level to launch fresh rallies. A breakout over congestion targets a drive to 1.1068 as well as potentially higher. A close under 1.0818 is needed to reject the upturn.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 05th May, 2017
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

Gold Recovers Temporary Ahead of U.S Data Release

Gold showed weak recovery symptoms in today trading sessions with a 1235 high, after plunging to 1225.74 low yesterday, but still remains bearish. Yesterday, U.S economic data was positive which added more weight to gold's bearish forces, but the decline journey was postponed as U.S Republicans voted a yay on Trump's health-care-bill, replacing Obamacare, and Democrats were repelled by such move. As a result, U.S Dollar shed $0.79 and U.S Index plunged to 98.54 low, giving XAUSUD a chance to take a breath. Gold currently trading 1233 intraday, slightly below 200 EMA (D1) at 1237 which to be considered a critical level.


U.S Economic Data today will have a major contribution to gold levels, with NFP in focus, and Yellen (Head Of U.S Fed) will cross wire afterwards and the most preferable scenario is that FOMC members along with Yellen will guard U.S Dollar from further declines supported by yesterday's positive data, along with the outcomes of NFP, Average Hourly Earnings m/m, and Unemployment Rate. On the other hand, French Elections this Sunday and tails of uncertainties could provoke gold to peek higher as market sees the precious metal as a sacred haven substitute.

As for physical demand of gold, global gold demand in Q1 2017 was 1,034.5t. The 18% year-on-year decline suffers from the comparison with Q1 2016, which was the strongest ever first quarter. Inflows into ETFs of 109.1t, although solid, were nonetheless a fraction of last year’s near-record inflows. Slower central bank demand also contributed to the weakness. Bar and coin investment, however, was healthy at 289.8t (+9% y-o-y), while demand firmed slightly in both the jewelry and technology sectors. (WGC).

Fundamentals:

1- USD - Average Hourly Earnings m/m + Non-Farm Payrolls + Unemployment Rates today at 12:30 PM GMT.

2- USD - Yellen (Head of U.S Fed) speech today at 5:30 PM GMT.

3- French Presidential Elections this Sunday all day long.

Technical Overview:

Trend: Bearish Sideways

Resistance levels: R1 1237.41, R2 1248.10, R3 1260.22, R4 1278

Support levels : S1 1225.80, S2 1218.23, S3 1208.93, S4 1194.76

Comment: Currently Gold to be considered bearish, but due to U.S Data today and French Elections approaching, we could see high volatility for XAUUSD with choppy sideways destination. A penetration for R1 level projects further bullish waves with R2 level target. Closing above R3 level will shift gold to bullish momentum. The other scenario, in case gold break below S1 level, intensive selloffs with congestion seeing S2&S3 as target.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 08th May, 2017
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

EUR/USD Gaps Upward For the Second Time As Macron Heads French Elections

EUR/USD gaps upward for second time as French Presidential Elections end with Macron's declared winner, beating Le Pen also for the second as the two candidates fold the final round yesterday. Macron collected almost 65% of French voters, and the candidate with his Pro EU sharp tone, eased worries of EU neighbor nations, and Frexit shall never be spoken off, and FRANCE Shall stay in Euro-zone. As a result the pair gapped +23-pips with 6 months french-highs at 1.1021, with a reminder of hold old levels before Brexit took place.

Although expectations that EUR/USD should have surged higher giving the above fundamentals, the fact that markets saw Macron's triumph as an inevitable taking into consideration the huge gap between him and Le Pen's polls, which have slowed the intensive bullish attack towards higher levels, and when traders receive news as forecasts, usually markets act less severe to the released news. The pair failed to withhold the 1.10 level, currently trading 1.0970 intraday, but sustaining the 1.09 level should keep bulls waves on stand by motion. EURO Index almost touched the 98 level but failed with 3-pips behind at 98.97 high for today. On the other hand, U.S Dollar remains weak as the Index plunged to 98.54 low this morning.

As for economic data that should influence EUR/USD, the pair awaits low impact news with German Factory Orders m/m and Sentix report today, but giving the circumstances, a positive data today will be like pouring gas on fire as the pair just need a slight push for additional rallies. Tomorrow will be more action with German Industrial Production m/m and German Trade balance, followed by French Gov Budget Balance, and On Wednesday, Mr. Draghi, head of ECB will cross wires and it's been clear in recent appearances how Draghi Favors lower EUR/USD, so the speech will be highly anticipated with the possible content.

Fundamentals :

1 - EUR - German Factory Orders m/m today at 6:00 AM GMT.

2- EUR - Sentix Investor Confidence today at 8:30 AM GMT.

3- EUR - German Industrial Production and Trade Balance tomorrow at 6:00 AM GMT.

4- EUR- French Gov. Budget Balance tomorrow 6:45 AM GMT.

5 EUR - ECB President Draghi Speech on Wednesday at 12:00 PM GMT.

Technical Overview :

Trend: Bullish Sideways

Resistance levels: R1 1.1027, R2 1.1068, R3 1.1125

Support levels: S1 1.0936, S2 1.0860, S3 1.0778

Comment: The market reminds bullish despite the pair minor retracement. A minor downward correction is expected but staying above S1 level calls for additional rallies. Closing above S2 still remain positive. Dips should fight S1 level, but in case of penetration, S2 will be next destination. Closing below S3 is needed for trend reversal. The other scenario, in case EUR/USD breaks above R1 level, market should expect intensive attacks towards R2, then R3 level.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.