Daily Market Analysis by FxGrow

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FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 05th Jan, 2017
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

Oil Plunges Over Doubts of OPEC Allocated Quotas Commitment, Awaiting US Inventories

Crude oil started 2017 with a significant rally reaching 56.22 March-2015-fresh-highs following 2016 finale as OPEC reaches final decision regarding allocating shared quotas by OPEC and NON-OPEC cartel producers. Oil prices bulls were under one condition, monitoring production shares as decided without cheating, although doubts were aroused on how far the members will stick to the so anticipated OPEC-deal taking previous history of non compliance. The first domino stone that fell was the Kurds after comments by Iraqi oil minister Haider Al-Abadi delivering on late-Tuesday, citing that the Kurdish region was exporting more than its allocated share of oil as the country seeks to abide by OPEC output cut deal that kicked-in on Jan 1.

Iraqi PM noted, “The region is exporting more than its share, more than the 17 percent stated in the budget.”

Under the terms of the 2017 budget, which passed despite a boycott from a key Kurdish party, the autonomous region is allocated 250,000 bpd exports from oilfields under its control.

Other Rumors on CNBC livesquawk Russia will not start oil cuts until they see proven actions by OPEC.
Yesterday, The American Petroleum Institute (API) has reported a sizable draw on U.S. crude oil inventories, down 7.4 million barrels over the previous week—a much larger draw that expected, and the fifth draw in seven weeks.


Analysts expected a draw of around 1.7-2.2 million barrels for the week, and right ahead of the API data dump, oil prices responded upwards nearly 2 percent, in anticipation of a draw on a smaller scale.

Crude oil prices has entered a vague tunnel with too many factors affecting oil levels.

1- OPEC and Non-OPEC cut production.

2- OPEC and Non-OPEC commitment and compliance to allocated oil production Quotas.

3- US crude inventories that will be published today at 4:00 PM GMT will either support oil bulls or add further losses to price levels.

If OPEC and Non-OPEC cartels combined their efforts respecting cut production with further monitoring, then we will witness new high levels at 2017.

Trend: Sideways

Resistance level : R1 53.84, R2 55.20, R3 56.81

Support levels : S1 52.41, S2 51.74, S3 50.92

Remark : look forward for US crude inventories today scheduled for a release at 4:00 PM GMT.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 06th Jan, 2017
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

USD/CAD Dips on Weaker US Dollar, Awaiting NFP
The loonie extended hawkish tone against its south greenback neighbor. USD/CAD dilated the bearish momentum further more, dropping yesterday from 1.3456 high, and landed today on 1.3254 low, currently trading 1.3292 intraday. Canadian dollar took advantage first on weaker US index performance after strong tone by the US fed on Trump's fiscal policy boost, warning that it might poses inflation risk. As a result, the US index sank today to 101.73 15-Dec-fresh-lows, currently trading 102.26. Second, crude oil prices sustaining 53 levels which boosted the loonie further more.

Trend: Bearish Sideways

Key levels to watch : Weekly Pp 1.3477

Resistance levels : R1 1.3318, R2 1.3360, R3 1.3400, R4 1.3441

Support levels : S1 1.3277, S2 1.3244, S3 1.3202, S4 1.3171

Remark : USD/CAD is highly volatile today due first to US index levels, second crude oil inventories today that will settle oil levels which will impact Canadian economy, third US NFP report tomorrow, finally Canadian local data represented by the trade balance and employment rate. These are the main fundamentals that will effect USD/CAD cable. Price levels above R2 will shift the pair to bullish trend and will spark further bulls towards R3 level. On the other hand, long positions below S1 will favors additional wash towards S2 and S3 levels.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 06th Jan, 2017
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

Trade on US NFP news today, Technical Levels to Watch
NFP is released by Bureau of Labor Statistics. It measures change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. This is vital economic data released shortly after the month ends. The combination of importance and earliness makes for hefty market impacts. When NFP is released, the market is highly volatile shortly before and after the release. NFP will be released today, Fri 6th Jan, at 1:30 PM GMT.

Don't miss the NFP announcement. All upcoming economic events are Automatically updated when new data is released.

EUR/USD technical levels to watch:

Resistance levels : R1 1.0626, R2 1.0679, R3 1.0732, R4 1.800

Support levels : S1 1.0547, S2 1.0478. S3 1.0420, S4 1.0354

Remark : R2 and S2 levels are the psychological levels where they both will support bulls and bears attacks.

GBP/USD technical levels to watch :

Resistance levels : R1 116.23, R2 117.43, R3 118.37

Support levels : S1 114.84, S2 114.15, S3 112.83

Remark : long positions above R1 will boost further rallies to previous high levels (R2&R3). S1 is a hard level, any penetration will prevail further dips towards S2&S3 levels.

USD/CHF technical levels to watch:

Resistance levels : R1 1.0146, R2 1.0212, R3 1.0291

Support levels : S1 1.0081, S2 1.0006, S3 0.9934

USD/CAD technical levels to watch :

Resistance levels : R1 1.3277, R2 1.3396, R3 1.3400, R4 1.3455

Support levels : S1 1.3235, S2 1.3202, S3 1.3157, S4 1.3080

Remark: The cable is highly volatile due to crude oil levels + US NFP today + Canadian local data

AUD/USD technical levels to watch :

Resistance levels : R1 0.7369 , R2 0.7439, R3 0.7496, R4 0.7564

Support levels : S1 0.7259, S2 0.7198, S3 0.7135, S4 0.7064

Remark : long positions under S1 will increase further selloffs and wash towards lower supporr levels. On the other hand stalling above R1 will trigger further confidence for Aussie and bullish attack towards R2 & R3.

NZD/USD technical levels to watch :

Resistance levels : R1 0.7072 , R2 0.7153, R3 0.7223

Support levels : S1 0.6967 , S2 0.6885, S3 0.6808

Gold Technical levels to watch :

Resistance levels : R1 1181.25, R2 1193.14, R3 1202.70, R4 1214.07

Support levels : S1 1170.26, S2 1160.79, S3 1149.92, S4 1136.94

Remark : Gold or XAUUSD is highly volatile against US dollar. Long positions above R1 will favor more bullish trend towards R2 level which is articular and above it with targets towards R3, but be careful for a set back from R2 level on the first test. Below S2 level, gold will turn bearish and more wash towards S3&S4.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 09th Jan, 2017
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

EUR/USD Twitches on Confusing US Dollar, Awaiting Local Data

EUR/USD is confusing the market and traders are finding hard time to predict the cable trend. On Friday, USD awaited major news and NFP was the main focus but what was unexpected is the mix data between negative NFP scoring 156K compared to 204K previously, and positive unemployment rate at 4.7%. But lets re-visit what happened shortly before Friday's US news, the FOMC minute meeting on Wednesday raising doubts that Trump fiscal might poses inflation risk. As a result, the US index dropped heavily from 103.42 high, hitting 101.30 13-Dec-fresh-low. Currently, US index is showing signs of recovery, trading 102.39. EUR/USD is currently trading 1.0520 after peeking to 1.0622 on Friday.

Trend : Bearish Sideways

Key levels to watch : Weekly Pp 1.0499

Resistance levels : R1 1.0545, R2 1.0572 , R3 1.0622

Support levels : S1 1.0514, S2 1.0481, S3 1.0426

Remark : keep an eye on US index which has turned strong again awaiting further economic data. Closing above R1 will spark further attacks above R2&R3 levels. On the other hand, stalling near S2 level will depress EUR/USD level and wash towards S3 level.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 09th Jan, 2017
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

Australian Dollar Poised ahead of Local Data

The Aussie strengthened on Friday after a remarkable surge on local trade balance release scoring 1.24B compared with -1.12B on previous session which energized AUD/USD clocking a high 0.7354. The pair couldn't foothold the 0.73 level as US index reclaimed the reins peeking to 102.30 high right before it dropped to 101.30 13-Jan-fresh-lows on Thursday after FOMC late meeting with comments that Trump's policy withholds the possibility of inflation risk being bullish at highly pace. AUD/USD opened with a strong tone with positive building approvals giving the Aussie additional boost as the pair peeked to 0.7327 ignoring US index which is trading 102.41 intraday. Australian dollar awaits local retail sales tomorrow early morning, 12:30 AM GMT, shortly followed by Chinese CPI which could give further charge for the Aussie facing strong US dollar.

Trend : Bullish Sideways

Resistance levels : R1 0.7342 , R2 0.7385, R3 0.7425, R4 0.7464

Support levels : S1 0.7299, S2 0.7261, S3 0.7213 S4, 0.7180

Remark : Keep an eye on Australian retail sales followed by Chinese CPI. R1 is 200 SMA, touching and stalling above it will fuel further rally bulls towards R2&R3 levels. Below S2 level rekindles bear trend forces & the cable will shift to bearish momentum.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 10th Jan, 2017
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

Gold Bulls Supported By Weaker USD and Disappointing Asian Data
Gold rallies is the talk of the market since Monday's early trading sessions. The yellow shiny metal is on best performance compared to all rivals and has proven once more being a safe haven when traders are disappointed with currencies performance. On Monday, US dollar was on weakest performance after peeking on 2017 to 103.81, the US index dropped yesterday to 101.84, then extended bearish momentum further more to 101.48, closing to 2017 lows 101.30. The collapsing USD was first boosted by comments late Wednesday FOMC's short meeting hinting that Trump's fiscal policy poses inflation risk, second by Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren calling for the U.S. central bank to step up its pace of interest rate increases from the once-a-year pattern, adding warns of inflation risks if it does not. As a result gold surged from 1171.99 low and peeked to 1186.22 high.

In early trading sessions, Asian markets data was disappointing first by Australian retail sales at 0.2% compared with 0.5% on previous sessions, second Chinese CPI scoring a shortage by 0.3% on 0.5% last session. This gave additional charge for gold to dilate bullish trend, clocking a high today 1187.69.

Trend : Bullish Sideways

Key levels to watch : Daily Pp 1180.33

Resistance levels : R1 1188.58, R2 1198.02, R3 1207.15

Support levels : S1 1180.14, S2 1170.02, S3 1159.71

Remark : Keep an eye on US index. Stalling above R1 will fuel further attacks towards R2&R3 levels and increase strong buying but be careful from false alarms and setbacks above 1188 as a first test. Closing below S2 level is needed to shift into bearish trend with additional selloffs towards S3 level.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 11th Jan, 2017
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

The curse of Brexit adds negative weight on UK pound further more as GBP/USD plunges yesterday 1.2107 Nov-2016-fresh-lows. British Pound took a short breath-break yesterday as the pair rallied to 1.2189 high, taking advantage of minor tripping US index sank to 101.84 low. US index recovered again in today in opening sessions causing further depression for the cable. GBP/USD made a first test on R1 1.2197, currently trading 1.2160, slightly above its daily Pp 1.2157

GBP awaits local data today with manufacturing production in spot light, scheduled at 9:30 AM GMT. Later today, governor Carney will make a speech on behalf of BOE discussing monetary policy.

Trend : Bearish

Key levels to watch : Daily Pp 1.2157

Resistance levels : R1 1.2197, R2 1.2264, R3 1.2363

Support levels : S1 1.2145, S2 1.2070 , S3 1.2018

Remark : Look forward for British local today today, later on Carney speech which can might give a positive injection for the pair depending on the outcomes. also Trump's speech today at 4:00 PM GMT which will impact US index levels.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 12th Jan, 2017
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

Japanese Yen Sharpened on Collapsing US Dollars
USD/JPY was on a roller coaster yesterday before and after Trump's speech bringing back memories of US election but the scenario was less severe. On Wednesday, the pair rallied to 116.86 high as analysis expected USD will strengthen on Trump's speech but the president, instead of giving the supposed speech, he made an attack on local US companies causing a major loss of their stock value which shortened US dollar as the Index tumbled from 102.96 and anchored at 101.16 today. Yen received additional charge with positive local data first with bank lending added +0.2% to initial 2.4%, second the Japanese current account 180T while forecasts were 148T. As a result USD/JPY extended bearish momentum hitting 114.35 Dec-12-fresh-lows. The pair is currently trading 114.32, below daily Pp 115.50.

Trend: Bullish Sideways

Key levels to watch : Daily Pp 115.50

Resistance levels : R1 115.05, R2 115.89, R3 116.94, R4 117.94

Support levels : S1 113.90, S2 113.30, S3 112.70, S4 112.10

Remark: Keep an eye on heavy US data today and tomorrow both at 1:30 PM GMT. Also, Yellen's speech today at midnight on behalf of US FED. Price range between S1 and R1 but expect more volatility on economic data release. Long positions below S1 level, the cable will shift to bearish but be careful of false alarms as first test. A penetration for R2 level will rapid bull attacks forces towards R3&R4 levels.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 12th Jan, 2017
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

Gold Spikes Ahead of US Data
Gold extended bullish momentum this week taking advantage of weaker US dollar performance. Yesterday, Trump made an attack on local US companies which caused the US index to dilate bear forces, dropping to 100.70 9-Dec-fresh-lows. XAUUSD awaits major US news today and tomorrow both at 1:30 PM GMT and today at midnight, Yellen on behalf of US Fed will make a speech. Traders are awaiting these news to see how US dollar will perform facing strong gold performance.

Trend : Bullish Sideways

Resistance levels : R1 1213.94, R2 1222.89, R3 1232.48, R4 1142.08

Support levels : S1 1199.23, S2 1185.81, S3 1175.58, S4 1160.23

Remark : Keep an eye on US index as it's a strength measure facing gold. Also US data today will determine how gold will perform today and tomorrow.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 16th Jan, 2017
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

Sterling Banished on May's Weekend Hints, Awaiting Carney's Speech
GBP/USD gaped -175 pips between closing on Friday 1.2191 and Monday's opening 1.2016 on reports that PM May will emphasize the hard Brexit further more tomorrow on her speech in the after noon. May is expected to emphasis on curbing free movement of people by regaining control over Britain's borders and immigration laws. Doing so, the UK will lose access to the European Union's single market and resurfaced uncertainty over economic implication of the historic move.

Today, Gov. Carney on behalf of BOE will make an appearance at 6:30 PM GMT, Due to deliver a speech titled "Policy Issues Affecting the Bank of England" at the London School of Economics.

Trend : Bearish sideways

Key levels to watch: Daily Pp. 1.2028

Resistance levels : R1 1.2115, R2 1.2192 , R3 1.2277

Support levels : S1 1.1985, S2 1.1921, S3 1.1844

Remark : Keep an eye on Carney's speech today and PM May tomorrow. A negative content from May on "Hard Brexit" and restrictions between UK and ECB markets will increase further attacks towards support levels of GBP/USD.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 17th Jan, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Australian Dollar Sharpens as US dollar Shortens

The Aussie opened with a strong tone taking advantage first of weaker US dollar performance, second supported by positive local data on local home loans with 0.9% compared with -0.6% previous sessions. US index is vulnerable since yesterday with absence of US economic data to lean on. US index extended bearish momentum as it broke the 101 level today at 100.98, closing to Thursday's lows 100.70. As a result, AUD/USD rallied this morning from 0.7464 low, clocked a 0.7535 17-Nov-fresh-highs, currently the pair is trading 0.7515 intraday.

Trend : Bullish sideways

Key levels to watch : Daily Pp. 0.7479

Resistance levels : R1 0.7557, R2 0.7622, R3 0.7706

Support levels : S1 0.7478, S2 0.7402, S3 0.7312

Remark : keep an eye on US index which is still considered to be strong. long positions above Daily Pp will boost AUD/USD further more. A penetration for R1 level and stalling above it will rapid further bull wave towards R2&R3. Failing to withhold 0.75 level will result in a price range between R1 and S1 levels. A close below S3 level is needed to the cable to shift into bearish mood.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 17th Jan, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

EURO Levels Awaits ECB Interest Rates Decisions
Once again, the European Central Banks (ECB) will have the upper hand as they will decide on either to leave rates at current 0.0% or follow the path of US Fed recent 0.25% hike. The meeting is scheduled 8 times per year and this Thursday, 19 Jan, at 12:45 PM GMT. Last meeting was held on 8th of Dec 2016 and ECB decided to leave rates at 0.00%. Shortly by, Mr. Draghi held a press conference where he added that ECB will make a reduction of 20B Eur from original 80B Eur bond purchasing and market didn't digest Draghi's decision which resulted in collapsing EUR/USD levels, adding more weight on the Euro zone after going through hard Brexit.

Forecasts are to leave interest rates at current 0.00% but the devil lies in the details as Draghi will once again head a press conference shortly after ECB interest decision at 1:30 PM GMT. Draghi will have three choices.

1- Add additional cuts on 20B Euro from original 80B Eur which could depress the EURO further more.

2- Leave bond purchasing at current 60B Eur as markets are anticipating.

3- Increase the 60B Eur bond purchasing and this could restore confidence and boost EURO value.

On 19th Jan 2017, markets are expected to be highly volatile before and after the ECB min bid rate. On 8th of Dec 2016, EUR/USD levels peeked to 1.0873 high, then collapsed to 1.0597 low. Then extended bearish momentum the next day further more as the pair plunged to 1.0530. Traders can benefit from this unique event as market will be highly volatile.

Resistance levels : R1 1.0673, R2 1.0765, R3 1.0852, R4 1.0943

Support levels : S1 1.0541, S2 1.0468, S3 1.0358, S4 1.0258

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 18th Jan, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Sterling: Hopes Hanging on Today's Local Data
GBP/USD rallied yesterday taking advantage of weak US dollar performance despite May's speech withholding uncertainties on UK's future economy plan. US index plunged yesterday $1.38, bottomed at 100.23 9-Dec-2016 fresh lows. Even though PM May held a press conference where she discussed hard Brexit further more and tails added up with following headlines.

1- UK is leaving European Union not half in or half out, but not leaving Europe

2- UK is seeking new and equal partnership between independent self governing global Britain and friends and allies in EU.

3- May is not seeking to adopt a model already enjoyed by other countries.

4- May will make sure to put the final vote in parliament by releasing Article 50.

5- UK will adapt a new transition phase but details were not mentioned.

GBP/USD bulls yesterday were also supported by positive local CPI at 1.6% compared with 1.2% on previous sessions. Sterling also awaits today local data at 9:30 AM GMT, first Average Earning Index, second Claimant count change which will either extend the bullish momentum or the pair will drop to recent level depending on the outcome.

Remark : Keep an eye on various economic data today. A positive UK data today will initiate further bullish wave towards 1.24 & 1.25 levels for GBP/USD. On the other hand, a disappointing outcome will wash the cable towards 1.23 & 1.22 levels.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 18th Jan, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Canadian Dollar Poised Ahead of BOC Interest Rate Decision
USD/CAD sank yesterday to 1.3018 20th-Oct-fresh lows following the path of retreating US dollar at 100.23 low. Today, markets are awaiting BOC interest rate decision followed by a press conference for Mr. Poloz, head of BOC. Canadian economy is on top performance recently and was considered one of top performing economies during 2016 and Inaugurated 2017 with a positive trade balance 0.5B compared to -1.0B on previous sessions in addition to positive unemployment claims.

last schedule for BOC interest rate decision was on 7th-Dec-2016, and Polo announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent. Forecasts for today are to leave interest rates at current 0.5% with modification on monetary policy.

Trend : Bearish Sideways

Key levels to watch:

Resistance levels : R1 1.3148, R2 1.3277, R3 1.3390

Support levels : S1 1.3009, S2 1.2910, S3 1.2822

Remark : Since market forecasts are in accord with previous interest rate results, USD/CAD will depend mostly on technical levels.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 19th Jan, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Gold Makes Minor Downtrend Correction, Eyes On Trump's Speech
As expected, Yellen was at the right time, right place to lift collapsing US dollar this week. On Tuesday, US index bottomed at 100.23 after significant bullish opening on 2017 resulted in 103.81 peek. Yesterday, XAUUSD clocked a high 1217.71 after PM May's final determination for a divorce from EU, but Gold couldn't withhold high levels, at 7 PM GMT, an hour before Yellen's appearance, gold levels started shaking downward, and Yellen contributed further more through her speech where she laid out that US economy is positively stable it's up to Fed's objectives. As a result the sacred yellow metal extended bear forces and sank to 1197.65 low. Gold levels still have two articular stations where final price destination will be determined. First, US data today scheduled at 1:30 PM GMT. Second tomorrow's global anticipated Trump speech and analysts are in confusion whether Trump will make an attack on US local sector as he did previously with pharmaceutical companies causing USD to collapse, or he will address US citizens with patriotic speech that could result in energizing USD.

Trend : Bullish Sideways

Key levels to watch : Daily Pp 1209.70

Resistance levels : R1 1208.34, R2 1220.20, R3 1231.45, R4 1242.99

Support levels : S1 1197.29, S2 1184.37, R3 1176.87, R4 1165.21

Remark : The fundamentals for Gold levels are tied with today's US data at 1:30 PM but the main focus is on Trump's speech tomorrow. As for technical levels, a penetration for R2 strong level will fuel further bullish waves towards R3 & R4. Closing below S1 will favor selloffs and wash towards S3 level.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 19th Jan, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Crude Oil Levels Between OPEC-Compliance and US Inventories Today
Oil prices are ebb and flow between OPEC-compliance efforts to curb market surplus and US consecutive additional drilling to glut the market.

For the first time in 15 years, beginning of Jan, OPEC and several producers settled last year to cut supply which boosted oil levels to spike at 55.22 from a 27$ a year ago. The key here was how far will this agreement last and the commitment of respecting agreed share-quotas. On 2017, hints were sent that some countries are not respecting the settlement signs of cheating were fed to markets which caused oil bulls to take a breath, and slow the hike pace. In Nov-2017, OPEC made the final touches on the plan to cut its output around 1.20 MB per day to 32.50M. Russia, combined with other non-members pledged curbs around 560,000 bpd in Dec.

The biggest reduction came from Saudi Arabia, which told OPEC it cut output to 10.47 million bpd. Losses in Nigeria, which is exempt from cutting output because its production has been curbed by conflict, provided the second largest reduction.

The OPEC figures published on Wednesday showed the group pumped 33.085 million bpd last month, according to figures OPEC collects from secondary sources, down 221,000 bpd from November. According to Reuters. In short words, OPEC deal is falling into puzzles but perhaps on slow pace but the target will be achieved supported by analysts due to a significant increase in energy sectors specially china.

Oil levels are heading to $60 by mid 2017 according to Tarek Fadlallah, Nomura Middle East chief executive officer, as he discusses the outlook for the U.S. dollar and oil prices with Bloomberg's Shery Ahn and Yousef Gamal El-Din on "Bloomberg Markets: Middle East." (Source: Bloomberg).

In conclusion, oil prices declined as US decided to increase its stockpiles although some OPEC countries reduces production. OPEC and US are on opposite target terms since OPEC has the benefit of higher oil prices considering it's their main source of economy wealth and US is the largest energy consumer sector. Therefore a global supply glut remains a big concern awaiting further deals from OPEC members.

Markets are always on a weekly report with US crude inventories, today at 4 PM GMT, with further efforts to affect oil levels. On the other hand, China also plays a big role on oil demand knowing that it is the second largest consumer thus slower demand might be a result of weaker economy.

Remark : Look forward for US inventories today, a positive data will help oil prices to collapse to S1 51.13, S2 50.48, S3 49.82. The other scenario, in case of negative inventories not meeting forecasts, markets to expect bullish wave powered by disappointment and OPEC efforts towards R1 52.06, R2 52.94, R3 53.94.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 20th Jan, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Market Volatility Pledged on Trump's Speech

Talk of the week, Trump's receiving the US presidential ribbon and how the market will react on his speech. But before that, let's go back in time and put puzzle pieces to one place to draw a clearer picture.

1- First on 3rd of Dec, US index rallied significantly ceiling 103.81 2003-fresh-highs, showing how strong USD is but the pace is critical. The next day, Wednesday the 4th, US index was on a date with FOMC meeting which resulted with briefing that US index is relatively high. Also, it could lead to inflation which is a nightmare for central banks. As a result, US index took a dip to 101.30.

2- This week, market awaited 2 speeches for Mrs. Yellen, head of US FED. First meeting was on Wednesday where Yellen boosted collapsing US index by positive speech, lifted US index to 101.33 high and the daily pivot was 100.88. The second speech was today early morning which didn't introduce new perspective for USD, and US index clocked a low 100.83. US index has a strong support level at 100.80. Now if we compare the three numbers, we can conclude that at these levels, the US Fed is satisfied and it's meeting their objectives.

Now comes today's long waited event, Trump's speech. There are three scenarios that can cross minds.

1- Trump, as his previous behavior, will make an attack on US local sectors resulting in US stocks collapse as well for US index.

2- Trump will make a speech matching the prestige of US presidency. A patriotic speech where he'll address US citizens with promise of good and strong economy that will result in energizing USD levels.

3- The event itself, a new president taking the lead despite the content of the speech will also send an optimistic wave through the US market that will boost USD.

In conclusion, whether Trump and Yellen are on the same page or not. Collapsing or bullish US index, the FOMC or Yellen will always try to make keep US index in the above mentioned levels where its meeting their inflation target.

Remark : This is a theory based on fundamental and technical analysis.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 23rd Jan, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

EUR/USD Surges Ahead of Draghi's Speech
After ECB unchanged rate decision at 0.00% followed by a press conference by Mr. Draghi with a positive tone on EU, EUR/USD rallied to 1.0676 high. The pair extended bullish momentum after Trump's protectionist speech on Friday and clocked 1.0754 today followed by collapsing US index that bottomed today at 100.17 2017-fresh lows. Today, 11:30 PM GMT, Draghi will make a reappearance with a press conference to discuss EU zone further more. Also, tomorrow at 9:30 AM GMT, the final decision on EU court ruling and the release of article 50 will have an impact on EUR/USD levels.

Trend : bullish Sideways

Key levels to watch : Daily Pp 1.0708

Resistance levels : R1 1.0768, R2 1.0815, R3 1.0862, R4 1.0929

Support levels : S1 1.0691, S2 1.0627, S3 1.0570, S4 1.0486

Remark : Look forward for Draghi's speech today and the release of article 50 tomorrow which will impact EUR/USD levels.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 24th Jan, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Sterling Depresses Ahead of Article 50 Release
GBP/USD levels are awaiting the final decision for UK's court ruling for the release of article 50 with final stages for eternal break from the EU. But the question is, will UK take soft or hard Brexit road ? A hard Brexit arrangement would likely see the UK give up full access to the single market and full access of the customs union along with the EU. On the other hand, soft Brexit means UK would no longer be a member of the EU and would not have a seat on the European Council. It would lose its MEPs and its European Commissioner. But, it would keep unfettered access to the European single market.

Trend : Bullish Sideways

Resistance levels : R1 1.2580, R2 1.2627, R3 1.2660

Support levels : S1 1.2430, S2 1.2384, S3 1.2315

Remark : Although signs are in favor for UK's final break from EU, but there are no clear signs on the method or which model they will adapt.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

[FxGrow Support]

FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 25th Jan, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Crude Oil Rallies Over Hints of Major Participation on Cut Reductions
OPEC efforts to curb oil gluts has been fruitful as Iraq's oil minister Al-Luaibi assured on Monday that most oil majors working on its territory were participating in oil output reductions agreed as part of the deal between OPEC and non-OPEC producers to help to balance the market.

Iraqi oil minister Jabar al-Luaibi said pledged to deliver Iraq's quota of agreed oil reduction, the country had cut output from its "national fields" and those of international oil companies (IOCs) working in Iraq were also participating.

Al-Luaibi quoted "We are in collaboration with IOCs to cut from their part," he told Reuters on the sidelines of a conference. "We are in agreement with most IOCs, not all of them, that they will be in line with us. This is going well."

He also added " "It is heading toward $60 now. We hope it will get to the level of $60 and $60-$65 will be reachable." Reuters.

According to Bloomberg, OPEC are doing pretty well although it's not 100% yet, but by end of Feb, 100% compliance will be achieved. right now, OPEC managed to cut 1.5M bpd and the target is to reach 1.8M bpd. Saudi Arabia are pumping less than 10M bpd. Russia will also decrease up to 300,000 bpd by end of April or May.

Also, OPEC is to set a committee which will monitor exports, secondary sources, count tankers, talk to sources, and develop their own mechanism to look into estimates on how countries are producing and make sure they are all in accord.

On the other hand, US will publish today Crude Oil Inventories at 3:30 PM GMT, with efforts to slow bullish oil pace. USA are on opposite end means with OPEC, with consecutive additional drilling and forecasts are at 1.5M barrel compared to 2.3M in previous sessions.

Resistance levels : R1 53.33, R2 54.19, R3 55.28

Support levels : S1 52.52, S2 51.71, S3 50.92

Remark : Look forward for US inventories today at 3:30 PM GMT, also keep posted on OPEC's news and meeting, these are the two main fundamentals for crude oil levels for the coming days. As for technical, long positions below S1 will increase additional selloffs and wash towards S2&S3 levels. On the other hand a close above R1 level indicates that oil trend has shifted bullish and stalling above R2 will fuel bullish waves towards R3.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.