Daily Global Analysis By zForex

[Z Forex]

Daily Analysis by zForex Research Team - 12.23.2024​

Markets Navigate Policy Shifts, Soft Economic Data, and Rising Tensions​

The euro dipped to its lowest level in nearly a year amid political challenges in major Eurozone economies and softer data, even as the ECB signaled cautious policy.
The yen fell on wavering expectations for a BOJ rate hike, while gold stabilized after a modest U.S. inflation print tempered the dollar’s rally. The British pound traded narrowly on lingering dovish BoE signals, and silver hit three-month lows, pressured by a hawkish Fed outlook and weaker Chinese demand. Investors now watch key data and central bank policy moves to gauge market direction.

 

[Z Forex]

Gold Analysis by zForex Research Team - 12.23.2024​

Gold Holds as Weak Dollar Offsets India’s Declining Demand​

Gold held around $2,620 per ounce on Monday, supported by a weaker US dollar after modest PCE inflation data renewed expectations for Fed easing next year. Earlier, the Fed’s cautious rate cut signals briefly pushed gold to a one-month low. Short-term pressures remain from declining physical demand in India, where officials forecast a significant drop in December imports. Despite challenges, gold is up over 27% this year, its best annual performance since 2010, driven by US policy easing, safe-haven demand, and central bank purchases.

Technically, the first resistance level will be 2635 level. In case of this level’s breach, next levels to watch would be 2670and 2710 consequently. On the downside 2605 will be the first support level. 2575 and 2545 are next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.

 

[Z Forex]

GBP/USD Analysis by zForex Research Team - 12.23.2024​

GBP/USD Trades Narrowly as BoE Dovishness and Fed Policy Weigh​

The GBP/USD pair traded within a narrow range above the mid-1.2500s during the Asian session, showing little momentum after Friday's rebound from a 1.2475 low, the weakest since May. The Fed's 25bps rate cut last week, paired with signals of slower rate cuts in 2025, kept US Treasury yields high and supported USD dip-buying, limiting GBP/USD gains. Geopolitical risks and the Bank of England’s dovish stance, including rate hold decisions and a downgraded Q4 economic outlook, added further pressure on the British Pound. Traders await the BoE's Quarterly Bulletin and US Consumer Confidence Index for further direction.

The first resistance level for the pair will be 1.2600. In case of this level's breach, the next levels to watch would be 1.2680 and 1.2750. On the downside 1.2475 will be the first support level. 1.2400 and 1.2350 are the next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.

 

[Z Forex]

Daily Analysis by zForex Research Team - 12.24.2024​

Divergent CB Paths, Euro Near Two-Year Low, and Precious Metals in Focus​

The euro fell below $1.04, nearing a two-year low, as diverging central bank policies weighed on the currency. The ECB’s cautious stance contrasts with the Fed’s limited rate cut projections, strengthening the dollar.

Gold climbed to $2,610 per ounce, marking a 27% annual gain driven by central bank buying, geopolitical risks, and easing monetary policies. The British pound weakened to $1.256, pressured by a dovish BoE and weak UK economic data. Meanwhile, silver rebounded to $29.5, supported by lower bond yields but lagging behind gold due to industrial demand uncertainty and China’s overcapacity in solar production.

 

[Z Forex]

GBP/USD Analysis by zForex Research Team - 12.24.2024​

British Pound Dips Amid BoE Rate Policy and Economic Struggles​

The GBP/USD pair is trading within a range just below the mid-1.2500s during Tuesday's Asian session, staying close to its lowest level since May, which was reached last week. Both the fundamental factors and technical indicators suggest that the path of least resistance for the pair is likely to be downward. The US Dollar (USD) remains strong near a two-year high, bolstered by the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish signal to slow the pace of interest rate cuts in 2025. In contrast, the British Pound (GBP) is pressured by the Bank of England's (BoE) decision to keep interest rates unchanged, accompanied by a dovish outlook. This reinforces the bearish near-term view for the GBP/USD pair.

The first resistance level for the pair will be 1.2600. In case of this level's breach, the next levels to watch would be 1.2680 and 1.2750. On the downside 1.2475 will be the first support level. 1.2400 and 1.2350 are the next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.

 

[Z Forex]

Silver Analysis by zForex Research Team - 12.24.2024​

Silver Rebounds Amid Fed Policy Adjustments and Industrial Concerns​

Silver rose above $29.5 per ounce, recovering from the three-month low of $29 on December 19th, as markets reassessed the Fed's hawkishness for next year. Softer November core PCE prices eased fears of overly restrictive rates, lowering bond yields and boosting precious metals. However, silver continued to underperform gold due to its uncertain outlook on industrial demand. Overcapacity in China’s solar panel sector led to a government-led supply regulation program, dimming silver demand. Additional pressure came from the risk of a yuan devaluation tied to China’s loose monetary policies, reducing export prices from the world’s largest silver exporter.

Technically, the first resistance level will be 29.85 level. In case of this level’s breach, the next levels to watch would be 30.20 and 30.70 consequently. On the downside 28.75 will be the first support level. 28.00 and 27.00 are the next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.

 

[Z Forex]

Daily Analysis by zForex Research Team - 12.26.2024​

Diverging Policies Shape Markets: Precious Metals Shine, Euro Falters ​

Diverging central bank policies defined market movements in 2024, with the euro nearing a two-year low below $1.04, pressured by the ECB’s cautious stance and the dollar’s strength.

Gold surged to $2,610 per ounce, recording a 27% annual gain fueled by central bank purchases, geopolitical tensions, and easing monetary policies. The British pound weakened to $1.256 amid dovish BoE signals and stagnant UK economic growth. At the same time, silver recovered to $29.5, supported by lower bond yields but weighed down by weak industrial demand and China’s solar sector overcapacity.

 

[Z Forex]

EUR/USD Analysis by zForex Research Team - 12.26.2024​

Euro Consolidates as Lagarde Warns of Persistent Inflation Risks​

EUR/USD remained range-bound during Tuesday's North American session, tracking the US Dollar (USD). The US Dollar Index (DXY) fluctuated narrowly above 108.00 amid low trading volume ahead of the holidays, with Forex markets closed for Christmas and Boxing Day on Wednesday and Thursday.

EUR/USD consolidated near 1.0400 on Thursday, maintaining a bearish outlook. The Euro (EUR) dipped slightly after ECB President Christine Lagarde told the Financial Times that inflation is "very close" to the 2% medium-term target but warned about persistent service sector inflation at 3.9%, despite overall Eurozone inflation easing to 2.2%

Lagarde also expressed concerns over potential trade tensions under US President-elect Donald Trump, cautioning against retaliatory tariffs, which she said harm the global economy.

Market expectations remain dovish for ECB policy in 2025, with traders anticipating four consecutive 25 basis point cuts to the Deposit Facility rate as inflation is expected to align with the ECB’s 2% target.

From a technical perspective, the first resistance level is at 1.0465, with further resistance levels at 1.0515 and 1.0575 if the price breaks above. On the downside, the initial support is at 1.0330, followed by additional support levels at 1.0300 and 1.0230.

 

[Z Forex]

Gold Analysis by zForex Research Team - 12.26.2024​

Gold Surges 27% in 2024, Its Best Performance Since 2010​

Gold traded above $2,620 per ounce on Thursday, with thin trading due to the holidays. Investors focused on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook and expected tariff policies under the incoming Trump administration, which may influence gold’s direction next year. While the Fed signaled fewer rate cuts for 2025, softer PCE inflation data raised hopes for more easing, increasing gold's appeal. Geopolitically, Hamas and Israel blamed each other on Wednesday for failing to secure a ceasefire, despite recent progress. Gold is set to end the year up 27%, its best performance since 2010, driven by central bank purchases, geopolitical tensions, and monetary easing.

Technically, the first resistance level will be 2635 level. In case of this level’s breach, next levels to watch would be 2670and 2710 consequently. On the downside 2605 will be the first support level. 2575 and 2545 are next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.

 

[Z Forex]

Daily Analysis by zForex Research Team - 12.27.2024​

Global Markets Weigh Euro Weakness, Yen Outlook, and Fed’s 2025 Plans ​

Global markets saw the euro slip toward a two-year low as the ECB signaled further easing.
The yen attempted to regain ground amid speculation of a delayed BoJ rate hike, while gold found support above $2,600 per ounce on safe-haven demand. Silver extended gains but faced headwinds from a stronger dollar. Investors now look to upcoming economic data and central bank signals to clarify future policy directions and market trends.

 

[Z Forex]

EUR/USD Analysis by zForex Research Team - 12.27.2024​

Euro Pressured as ECB Signals More Rate Cuts in 2025​

The EUR/USD pair slipped to 1.0415 during Friday's Asian session amid subdued holiday trading. Later, November's US Goods Trade Balance data is expected.

Initial Jobless Claims fell to 219,000, the lowest in a month, beating expectations of 224,000. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) rose slightly to 108.10, staying below its two-year high as the Fed signaled a slower pace of rate cuts for 2025.

In the Eurozone, ECB Governing Council member Boris Vujcic suggested further rate cuts are likely if data aligns with projections. The ECB has cut rates four times this year to 3.0%, with analysts expecting reductions to 2.0% by June, which could pressure the Euro.

From a technical perspective, the first resistance level is at 1.0465, with further resistance levels at 1.0515 and 1.0575 if the price breaks above. On the downside, the initial support is at 1.0330, followed by additional support levels at 1.0300 and 1.0230.

 

[Z Forex]

Gold Analysis by zForex Research Team - 12.27.2024​

Gold on Track for Best Year Since 2010 Despite Recent Dip​

Gold slipped below $2,630 per ounce on Friday, easing from the prior session's gains in light holiday trading.

Investors awaited clarity on US economic policies under the incoming Trump administration while assessing the Federal Reserve's monetary outlook. Softer US PCE inflation data increased the likelihood of more Fed rate cuts next year, which could strengthen non-yielding gold.

Gold's safe-haven appeal remained strong, supported by geopolitical risks from the Russia-Ukraine war and Middle East tensions. The metal was on track for a 27% annual gain, its best performance since 2010, driven by central bank buying, geopolitical uncertainty, and global monetary easing.

Technically, the first resistance level will be 2635 level. In case of this level’s breach, next levels to watch would be 2670and 2710 consequently. On the downside 2605 will be the first support level. 2575 and 2545 are next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.

 

[Z Forex]

Daily Analysis by zForex Research Team - 12.30.2024​

Dollar Holds Gains into Year-End with Euro Being Near Lows and Metals Steady​

Global markets opened the week with the euro hovering near two-year lows as diverging central bank policies and soft Eurozone data pressured the currency.

The yen, weakened by uncertain BOJ rate plans, is on watch for possible intervention. Meanwhile, the dollar remains firm on rising U.S. yields and expectations around President-elect Trump’s policies. Gold hovers above $2,600 on ongoing geopolitical worries and a softer U.S. dollar, while silver stays flat as traders monitor upcoming economic reports from China and the U.S. The British pound is steady around 1.2580, facing external pressure from the stronger dollar and subdued UK growth projections.

 

[Z Forex]

EUR/USD Analysis by zForex Research Team - 12.30.2024​

Dollar Steady on Rising Yields and Trump Policy Expectations​

The EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.0425, while the U.S. dollar index held steady near the 108 mark on Monday, supported by rising U.S. yields in light of thin year-end trading. Earlier this month, the dollar reached its highest level in over two years after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates but indicated a slower pace of monetary easing in the year ahead. The dollar’s strength comes from expectations around President-elect Donald Trump’s policies. These include deregulation, tax cuts, higher tariffs, and stricter immigration. Together, they are expected to increase growth and inflation, and keep Treasury yields high.

From a technical perspective, the first resistance level is at 1.0465, with further resistance levels at 1.0515 and 1.0575 if the price breaks above. On the downside, the initial support is at 1.0330, followed by additional support levels at 1.0300 and 1.0230.

 

[Z Forex]

Yen Analysis by zForex Research Team - 12.30.2024​

Finance Minister Signals Intervention as Yen Faces External Pressures​

The Japanese yen held steady around 157.8 per dollar on Monday, near a five-month low, as investors assessed the Bank of Japan's rate policy. Minutes from the BOJ’s December meeting suggested discussions of a potential rate hike, though rates remained at 0.25%. Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized the need for more data on wage growth and clarity on U.S. economic policies. Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato expressed concerns about the weakening yen, signaling readiness for intervention against sharp currency fluctuations. Rising U.S. Treasury yields added external pressure, despite the Federal Reserve's recent rate cuts.

The key resistance level appears to be 158.30, with a break above it potentially targeting 160.00 and 161.00. On the downside, 153.90 is the first major support, followed by 152.70 and 151.00 if the price moves lower.

 

[Z Forex]

Daily Analysis by zForex Research Team - 12.31.2024​

Dollar Holds Steady as Fed Rate Outlook Guides Year-End Trading​

Global markets wrap up the year with the euro near $1.04 and the yen showing slight gains, as the Federal Reserve’s 2025 outlook limits rate cut expectations.
Gold remains stable above $2,600 despite subdued holiday trading and a cautious Fed stance, while silver dips below $29 amid weaker industrial demand and central bank hawkishness. Investors look to upcoming U.S. data releases for clues on future policy and market direction.

 

[Z Forex]

EUR/USD Analysis by zForex Research Team - 12.31.2024​

EUR/USD Steady as Strong Dollar Dominates Year-End Trading​

The EUR/USD trades near 1.0410, while the dollar index holds steady at 107.9 on Tuesday, close to two-year highs as the year ends. The US dollar is set to gain over 6% annually, driven by the Fed's hawkish stance and reduced expectations for 2025 rate cuts, now forecasted at 50 basis points. Support also comes from expectations that President-elect Donald Trump's pro-growth policies, including tax cuts, tariffs, and deregulation, will fuel inflation and sustain high US yields.

From a technical perspective, the first resistance level is at 1.0465, with further resistance levels at 1.0515 and 1.0575 if the price breaks above. On the downside, the initial support is at 1.0330, followed by additional support levels at 1.0300 and 1.0230.

 

[Z Forex]

Gold Analysis by zForex Research Team - 12.31.2024​

Gold Holds Firm Despite Fed Outlook and Q4 Pressures​

Gold held above $2,600 per ounce on Tuesday after two days of declines, with minimal movement as investors awaited market drivers. Traders focused on the US economy, Trump’s tariff policies, and the Fed’s monetary stance, which could influence gold’s direction. Persistent inflation and strong labor data led the Fed to project fewer rate cuts, weighing on gold in Q4. Still, gold is set for a 27% annual gain, its best since 2010, driven by safe-haven demand amid global conflicts and significant central bank purchases, including from the PBoC, which helped push prices to a record $2,790 in September.

Technically, the first resistance level will be 2635 level. In case of this level’s breach, next levels to watch would be 2655 and 2670 consequently. On the downside 2600 will be the first support level. 2575 and 2545 are next levels to monitor if first support level is breached.

 

[Z Forex]

Daily Analysis by zForex Research Team - 01.02.2025​

Dollar Starts 2025 Softer Amid Stable Yen and Gold Extending Gains​

The euro trades near $1.0370 as the dollar index eases from last year's strength, supported by rising U.S. yields and anticipated pro-growth Trump policies.
The yen holds at 157 amid potential BOJ rate changes and intervention risks, while gold climbs above $2,630 on continued safe-haven appeal. The pound hovers around 1.2535, awaiting U.S. data for further cues, and silver gains despite subdued China PMI figures, with investors looking to upcoming U.S. reports for market direction.

 

[Z Forex]

Gold Analysis by zForex Research Team - 01.02.2025​

Gold Rises Above $2,630, Extending Best Rally Since 2010​

Gold rose above $2,630 per ounce on Thursday, extending last year’s 27% rally, its best since 2010, driven by US monetary easing, geopolitical risks, and record central bank purchases. Investors focus on Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s cautious stance on rate cuts amid rising inflation, which has slightly reduced gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset. Meanwhile, attention turns to potential challenges under the Trump administration and China’s economic revitalization efforts. A World Gold Council survey suggests continued central bank gold buying, supporting demand.

Technically, the first resistance level will be 2640 level. In case of this level’s breach, next levels to watch would be 2655 and 2670 consequently. On the downside 2600 will be the first support level. 2575 and 2545 are next levels to monitor if first support level is breached.