Yen Analysis by zForex Research Team - 12.03.2024
BOJ Governor Signals Potential Rate Hikes as Data Aligns
The Japanese yen edged toward 150 per dollar on Tuesday, weighed down by overall dollar strength, but remained close to its highest levels in seven weeks amid expectations that the Bank of Japan could soon raise interest rates again. Over the weekend, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated that further rate hikes are "nearing" as economic data is aligning with expectations. He also highlighted the significance of momentum from fiscal 2025 wage negotiations. Markets are now pricing in a roughly 60% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in Japan this month, up from around 50% recently. Meanwhile, investors remain cautious about the dollar's strength, which has been bolstered by expectations of US economic outperformance and Trump’s tariff threats against other major economies.
Technically, the 151.00 level will serve as the initial resistance, with 152.00 and 153.00 as the next levels to watch in case of a breakout. On the downside, 149.40 will be the first support, followed by 148.70 and 148.20 as additional key levels.
Daily Analysis by zForex Research Team - 12.04.2024
Political Uncertainty and Central Bank Actions Shape Market Moves
Global markets grapple with heightened political and economic risks, as the euro struggles with Eurozone instability.
The yen anticipates a possible BOJ rate hike, and gold and silver maintain momentum amid safe-haven demand. Central bank policies and upcoming data, including the Fed's Beige Book and non-farm payrolls, remain pivotal.
Gold Analysis by zForex Research Team - 12.04.2024
Investors Eye Fed Policy and Jobs Data as Gold Maintains Momentum
Gold held above $2,640 per ounce on Wednesday as markets assessed the political and monetary outlook while awaiting key economic data. Strong US job openings highlighted labor market resilience, with attention now shifting to Friday's non-farm payrolls and upcoming Fed speeches for policy clues. Odds of a 25bps Fed rate cut stand at 73%, boosting gold by lowering the opportunity cost of holding it. The metal also found support from its safe-haven appeal amid political instability in South Korea and France, as well as ongoing Middle East and Russo-Ukrainian tensions.
Technically, the 2660 level will serve as the initial resistance, with 2680 and 2710 as the next levels to watch in case of a breakout. On the downside, 2600 will be the first support, followed by 2575 and 2545 as additional key levels.
EUR/USD Analysis by zForex Research Team - 12.04.2024
Euro Struggles Amid Political and Economic Turmoil
The euro edged up to $1.0510 amid political uncertainty in France, where Prime Minister Michel Barnier faces a no-confidence vote over a contentious budget proposal with tax hikes and spending cuts. Volatility hit its highest level since March 2023, driven by concerns over weak economic data, political unrest in the Eurozone, and a strong U.S. dollar. Markets expect a 25 basis point rate cut in December, though a 50 basis point reduction is gaining traction.
Technically, the first resistance level is seen at 1.0570. Above this, 1.0600 and 1.0660 could be the next key levels to watch. On the downside, the initial support is at 1.0450, with a break below this level potentially leading to further support at 1.0400 and 1.0330.
Daily Analysis by zForex Research Team - 12.05.2024
Euro Holds at 1.0525 as Yen Strengthens
Euro volatility surged with French political uncertainty, with EUR/USD holding near 1.0525, supported by PMI data despite dollar strength.
The Japanese Yen edged closer to 150 per dollar as expectations for a December rate hike grew, while dovish BoJ remarks tempered gains. Gold steadied above $2,640, benefiting from geopolitical tensions and a slowdown in the US services sector, increasing the likelihood of a Fed rate cut. Meanwhile, GBP/USD hovered above 1.2700 ahead of key data releases, and silver held at $31.30, with traders eyeing US Initial Jobless Claims for further direction.
EUR/USD Analysis by zForex Research Team - 12.05.2024
Euro Volatility Rises on French Uncertainty
The EUR/USD exchange rate started the day trading around 1.0525. Despite the dollar strengthening throughout the week and the pair showing a negative trend, it managed to close the last two days in positive territory and remains in the green at the time of writing. After the French government’s collapse yesterday, the EUR/USD pair did not experience the expected weakness, indicating that the political event had already been priced in.
The PMI data released yesterday, which exceeded expectations, appears to have contributed to the pair’s relatively strong performance. Today, the U.S. unemployment data set to be released will be critical in determining the pair's direction.
From a technical perspective, 1.0570 is the key initial resistance level, with a break above it potentially targeting 1.0600 and 1.0660. On the downside, 1.0450 is the first major support, followed by 1.0400 and 1.0330 if the price moves lower.
Yen Analysis by zForex Research Team - 12.05.2024
Yen Strengthens with Rate Hike Promises
The Japanese yen edged closer to 150 per dollar, recovering some of the losses from the previous session, despite dovish remarks from Bank of Japan board member Toyoaki Nakamura. Nakamura voiced concerns over the sustainability of wage growth and noted signs of economic weakness, hinting that he may oppose a rate hike in December. In contrast, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled over the weekend that further rate hikes are "nearing," with economic data continuing to meet expectations. He also highlighted the importance of momentum in the upcoming fiscal 2025 wage negotiations. Currently, markets are pricing in a 60% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike in Japan this month, up from about 50% in recent weeks.
From a technical perspective, 151.00 appears to be the key initial resistance level, with a break above it potentially targeting 152.00 and 153.00. On the downside, 149.40 is the first major support, followed by 148.70 and 148.20 if the price moves lower.
Daily Analysis by zForex Research Team - 12.06.2024
Precious Metals Steady as Markets Brace for US Labor Data
Gold rose to $2,640, recovering from recent losses, as markets awaited US labor data for Fed policy signals. Weekly jobless claims increased, hinting at a cooling labor market ahead of the nonfarm payrolls report.
A 25bps rate cut in December is seen as 70% likely, supporting gold by lowering its holding cost. Meanwhile, China’s gold demand weakened for jewelry but remained strong for investment, though both may stabilize in 2024. Silver held above $31, buoyed by similar Fed rate cut bets and safe-haven demand due to global political turmoil. The euro and pound remain under pressure amid economic and political challenges.
Gold Analysis by zForex Research Team - 12.06.2024
Gold Climbs as Markets Eye US Labor Data and Fed Policy
Gold rose to around $2,640 on Friday, recovering some losses as markets awaited key U.S. economic data to assess Fed policy direction. Initial jobless claims increased last week, signaling a gradual labor market slowdown, ahead of the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report due later Friday. Markets currently see a 70% chance of a 25bps Fed rate cut in December, which supports gold by reducing the cost of holding non-yielding assets. Meanwhile, the World Gold Council reported weaker physical gold demand in China but strong investment demand in 2024, with stabilization expected in 2025.
From a technical perspective, 2660 appears to be the key initial resistance level, with a break above it potentially targeting 2690 and 2710. On the downside, 2600 is the first major support, followed by 2575 and 2545 if the price moves lower.
GBP/USD Analysis by zForex Research Team - 12.06.2024
UK Inflation Trends and Economic Weakness Shape BoE Policy Outlook
The GBP/USD pair traded near the mid-1.2700s during Friday’s Asian session, consolidating gains after reaching a three-week high. Traders are cautious ahead of the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, expected to guide the Federal Reserve’s December rate decision and influence the U.S. Dollar (USD). While lower U.S. Treasury yields have limited USD recovery, expectations of cautious Fed rate cuts and inflationary policies under President-elect Trump offer some dollar support. Weaker risk sentiment and geopolitical tensions also benefit the USD. Meanwhile, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey’s comments on potential 2025 rate cuts are tempering bullish sentiment for the British Pound (GBP).
From a technical perspective, 1.2760 appears to be the key initial resistance level, with a break above it potentially targeting 1.2830 and 1.2900. On the downside, 1.2610 is the first major support, followed by 1.2540 and 1.2470 if the price moves lower.
Daily Analysis by zForex Research Team - 12.09.2024
Euro Steadies as Political Calm and CB Outlook Shape Market Sentiment
The euro remained steady near $1.06 following renewed confidence in French political stability and clearer indications of policy easing from the European Central Bank. President Macron’s initiative to appoint a new prime minister and secure the 2025 budget calmed investor nerves, while markets anticipate a 25 bps ECB rate cut next week, bringing the total expected easing through mid-2025 to 125 bps. Meanwhile, strong US jobs data increased bets on a December Fed cut, underscoring resilient economic conditions and global monetary policy shifts that keep the currency markets on edge.
EUR/USD Analysis by zForex Research Team - 12.09.2024
Euro Steady Near $1.06 Amid France's Political Stabilization and ECB Outlook
The euro hovered near $1.0530, ending the week flat amid France's political turmoil and upcoming ECB decisions. President Macron’s plan to appoint a new prime minister to secure the 2025 budget calmed market fears, sparking a brief rally on Thursday. The ECB is set to cut rates by 25 basis points next week, its fourth reduction this year, aiming for a neutral policy rate near 2%. President Lagarde emphasized a cautious approach to support recovery while addressing risks. Markets anticipate 125 basis points of ECB easing through mid-2025, contrasting with the Fed’s expected smaller cuts. In the US, bets on a December Fed cut rose as strong jobs data highlighted economic resilience.
Technically, the firs resistance level will be 1.0600 level. In case of this level’s breach, next levels to watch would be 1.0660 and 1.0720 consequently. On the downside 1.0525 will be the first support level. 1.0500 and 1.0450 are next levels to monitor if first support level is breached.
Gold Analysis by zForex Research Team - 12.09.2024
Gold Surges Above $2,640 Amid Geopolitical Unrest and Renewed Demand
Gold climbed above $2,640 per ounce on Monday, bolstered by safe-haven demand amid Middle East tensions and China's resumed gold purchases. Syrian rebel forces ousted President Assad on Sunday, ending his 50-year rule and raising concerns about regional instability. China's central bank added gold to its reserves in November after a six-month pause, further supporting prices. Meanwhile, the U.S. jobs report showed a gradual labor market slowdown, increasing the likelihood of a Fed rate cut. Markets now see an 83% chance of a 25bps cut at the Fed's December meeting, enhancing gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset.
Technically, the firs resistance level will be 2660 level. In case of this level’s breach, next levels to watch would be 2690 and 2710 consequently. On the downside 2600 will be the first support level. 2575 and 2545 are next levels to monitor if first support level is breached.
Daily Analysis by zForex Research Team - 12.10.2024
Central Banks and Geopolitical Strains Steer Market Sentiment
The euro hovered near $1.05 as traders braced for another ECB rate cut and grappled with Eurozone uncertainties, including political unrest and subdued economic indicators. Meanwhile, the yen remained steady as the BOJ weighed possible interest rate hikes, and gold gained ground amid Chinese policy shifts and tensions in the Middle East.
The pound inched higher, anticipating steady BoE policy and upcoming UK data, while silver approached a one-month high, bolstered by expectations of a Fed rate cut and potential Chinese stimulus measures. Investors now turn their attention to this week’s inflation figures and central bank updates for clearer market direction.
EUR/USD Analysis by zForex Research Team - 12.10.2024
ECB Expected to Cut Rates Again Amid Eurozone Uncertainty
The euro hovered near $1.05, slightly above two-year lows, as traders awaited the ECB’s policy decision. The ECB is expected to cut the deposit rate by 25 bps to 3% on Thursday, marking its fourth consecutive cut. Markets project further quarter-point cuts at each meeting through June, potentially lowering the rate to 2%. Weak Eurozone data, political instability in France and Germany, and geopolitical tensions add to the cautious sentiment. ECB President Lagarde warned of potential growth slowdowns and highlighted medium-term downside risks.
Technically, the firs resistance level will be 1.0600 level. In case of this level’s breach, next levels to watch would be 1.0660 and 1.0720 consequently. On the downside 1.0525 will be the first support level. 1.0500 and 1.0450 are next levels to monitor if first support level is breached.
Gold Analysis by zForex Research Team - 12.10.2024
Gold Gains Amid China Policy Shifts and Geopolitical Instability
Gold climbed above $2,660 per ounce on Tuesday, marking its second consecutive session of gains, supported by China’s policy shifts and Middle East tensions. China's Politburo pledged its first monetary policy easing in 14 years to spur growth, lifting commodity markets. Additionally, China's central bank increased gold reserves for the first time in seven months, increasing demand. Geopolitical instability in the Middle East, particularly the collapse of the Syrian government, further supported gold as investors turned to safe-haven assets. Attention now shifts to upcoming U.S. inflation data later this week, which could impact the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance
Technically, the firs resistance level will be 2675 level. In case of this level’s breach, next levels to watch would be 2690 and 2710 consequently. On the downside 2630 will be the first support level. 2600 and 2575 are next levels to monitor if first support level is breached.
Daily Analysis by zForex Research Team - 12.11.2024
Precious Metals Rise on Fed and China Bets
The US dollar maintained its strength as investors awaited the US inflation report that could influence Federal Reserve policy.
The euro rose slightly, but concerns about the Eurozone economy and geopolitical tensions persisted. The Japanese yen edged up but remained near a two-week low. Gold prices surged on expectations of loose monetary policies and safe-haven demand. Silver prices climbed on Chinese stimulus hopes and potential Fed rate cuts. The British pound strengthened before key economic data and central bank meetings.
