Daily Global Analysis By zForex

[Z Forex]

EUR/USD Analysis by zForex Research Team - 12.12.2024​

Dollar Maintains Strength with Inflation Report​

The EUR/USD pair started Thursday with an increase and reached the 1.05 level again. The dollar index remained around 106.5 on Thursday after rising for four consecutive days, despite the latest US consumer inflation data strengthening expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next week.

The CPI report revealed that the headline and core inflation rates in November met forecasts, clearing the path for the Fed to continue with rate cuts. Markets are now pricing in nearly a 100% chance that the Fed will implement another 25 basis point reduction next week. Producer inflation data is also going to be revealed on Thursday for additional insight. Meanwhile, the dollar gained support from recent weakness in the euro and yuan, driven by a dovish monetary policy outlook in the Eurozone.

For the pair, the first resistance level will be 1.0600. In the case of a breach, the next levels to watch would be 1.0660 and 1.0720. On the downside, 1.0500 will be the first support level. 1.0450 and 1.0400 are the next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.

 

[Z Forex]

Gold Analysis by zForex Research Team - 12.12.2024​

Gold Pulls Back After Three-Day Rally​

Gold dipped to $2,700 per ounce, pausing after a three-day rally as investors continued to analyze the latest US inflation data. The November report showed that headline inflation rose as expected, while core inflation remained steady. This led traders to increase their expectations for another Federal Reserve interest rate cut next week, with Fed funds futures suggesting a 98% probability of a 25 basis point reduction. Such a move typically supports gold by lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. However, concerns about ongoing inflation in the coming year persisted as other key inflation indicators remained high.

Major central banks also supported gold, including the Bank of Canada, with expectations that the European Central Bank and Swiss National Bank will continue their easing policies. Additionally, the People's Bank of China resumed gold purchases after a six-month hiatus and committed to a more accommodative monetary policy next year.

Technically, the first resistance level will be 2725, followed by 2750 and 2790. On the downside, 2700 will be the first support level. 2660 and 2630 are the next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.

 

[Z Forex]

Daily Analysis by zForex Research Team - 12.13.2024​

Global Markets Adjust to Fresh CB Cuts Among Geopolitical Risks ​

Markets navigated a challenging environment as the euro slipped near a two-year low following another ECB rate cut and hints of further easing.

The yen weakened amid delayed BOJ hikes, while gold remained steady ahead of a possible Fed rate cut next week. The pound fluctuated under a strong dollar and uncertain economic prospects, and silver lost ground amid concerns about Chinese demand and global tariff tensions. Investors now await key economic data and central bank guidance to clarify the path ahead.

 

[Z Forex]

GBP/USD Analysis by zForex Research Team - 12.13.2024​

Pound Increases Before December Cuts​

The GBP/USD dropped to 1.2660 on Friday morning, while the dollar index rose above 107, putting it on track for a 1% weekly gain, its best performance in a month. This rise follows markets factoring in a 25-basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, although the outlook for 2025 remains uncertain. Data released Thursday showed the headline producer price index increased more than expectations, while the core index grew at the anticipated rate. Additionally, initial jobless claims unexpectedly surged to a nearly two-month high of 242K, significantly exceeding the expected 220K. Markets are currently pricing in a 96% probability of a quarter-point rate cut by the Fed at next week's meeting.

The first resistance level for the pair will be 1.2720. In case of this level's breach, the next levels to watch would be 1.2770 and 1.2810. On the downside 1.2610 will be the first support level. 1.2550 and 1.2500 are the next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.

 

[Z Forex]

Gold Analysis by zForex Research Team - 12.13.2024​

Gold Prices Stabilize as Markets Eye Fed’s Next Move​

Gold climbed above $2,680 on Friday, rebounding from a 1% drop in the previous session, as investors analyzed recent economic data. US factory gate prices rose surprisingly in November, raising concerns about persistently high inflation, while initial jobless claims surged to a nearly two-month high, pointing to a softening labor market. Markets largely expect a 25bps Fed rate hike next week, with projections for cuts next year, though uncertainty lingers about their extent. Meanwhile, dovish moves by other central banks, including rate cuts from the SNB (50bps), ECB (25bps), and BoC (50bps), alongside the BoJ's pause on hikes, had minimal impact on gold. The metal is on track for its first weekly gain in three.

Technically, the first resistance level will be 2700 level. In case of this level’s breach, next levels to watch would be 2725 and 2750 consequently. On the downside 2660 will be the first support level. 2630 and 2600 are next levels to monitor if first support level is breached.

 

[Z Forex]

Daily Analysis by zForex Research Team - 12.16.2024​

Gold Appeal Rises, Growth May Slow in 2025 ​

The Federal Reserve is expected to implement another 25bps rate cut at its final meeting of the year.

This would increase gold's attractiveness by lowering the cost of holding assets that do not yield interest. In addition, the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, especially Israel's recent air and ground strikes in Gaza, have strengthened gold's value. The World Gold Council has forecasted slower growth for gold in the coming year, pointing to factors such as central bank policies, geopolitical pressures, and economic conditions in major markets like the U.S., China, and India.

 

[Z Forex]

EUR/USD Analysis by zForex Research Team - 12.16.2024​

Euro Steadies Before Fed Decision​

The euro held steady at 1.05 as the week began. The dollar index fell to around 106.8 but stayed near its highest level in three weeks as investors looked ahead to the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decision. The central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, but market attention will be focused on the updated policy statement and forward guidance from Fed Chair Powell.

Speculation is rising that the Fed may signal a more gradual approach to easing in 2025. At present, traders see a 93% chance of a quarter-point rate cut this week, though they now expect the Fed to refrain from reducing rates in January. Meanwhile, worries about potential inflationary pressures under the incoming Trump administration have kept market sentiment tense.

Technically, the first resistance level will be 1.0540. In case of this level’s breach, the next levels to watch would be 1.0600 and 1.0660. On the downside 1.0450 will be the first support level. 1.0400 and 1.0330 are the next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.

 

[Z Forex]

Gold Analysis by zForex Research Team - 12.16.2024​

Gold Moves Up, Focus Shifts to Fed Meeting​

Gold traded above $2,650 per ounce on Monday as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision later this week, particularly its outlook on monetary policy for 2025. The Fed is widely anticipated to implement another 25bps rate cut in its final meeting of the year, which could boost gold’s attractiveness by lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

Ongoing geopolitical instability in the Middle East, especially following Israel’s air and ground attacks in Gaza, has further supported gold’s reliability. At the same time, the World Gold Council has forecasted slower growth for gold next year, citing factors such as central bank actions, geopolitical tensions, and economic conditions in major markets like the U.S., China, and India.

The first resistance level will be 2665. In case of this level’s breach, the next levels to watch would be 2700 and 2725. On the downside, 2630 will be the first support level, with 2600 and 2565 being the next levels to observe if the first support level is breached.

 

[Z Forex]

Daily Analysis by zForex Research Team - 12.17.2024​

Markets Grapple with Central Bank Policy, Geopolitical Risks, and Mixed Data​

Global markets faced a complex blend of central bank signals, political uncertainties, and mixed economic indicators on Tuesday.
The euro steadied near $1.05 amid weaker data, ECB rate cut expectations, and ongoing political instability in core Eurozone economies. The yen hovered near recent lows as the BOJ’s timeline for rate hikes remained unclear. Gold found support from geopolitical tensions and China’s policy shifts, while the pound edged up ahead of UK economic releases. Meanwhile, silver struggled under cautious sentiment tied to Fed policy and China’s slowdown. Investors now await key U.S. inflation data, upcoming central bank decisions, and potential policy shifts to gauge the next market moves.

 

[Z Forex]

Yen Analysis by zForex Research Team - 12.17.2024​

Japanese Yen Reaches Lowest Point in Three Weeks​

The Japanese yen hovered around 154 per dollar on Tuesday, near a three-week low, as markets awaited the US Federal Reserve's policy meeting. The Fed is expected to cut rates by 25bps on Wednesday but may signal fewer cuts for 2025. Domestically, Japan’s economy minister reaffirmed cooperation between the government and the BOJ on monetary policy. Speculation suggests the BOJ may delay a rate hike on Thursday, citing little cost in waiting for clearer signs of wage growth before tightening further.

The key resistance level appears to be 154.20, with a break above it potentially targeting 154.80 and 155.40. On the downside, 152.70 is the first major support, followed by 151.70 and 150.90 if the price moves lower.

 

[Z Forex]

Gold Analysis by zForex Research Team - 12.17.2024​

Safe-Haven Demand Drives Gold to Record Annual Gains​

Gold stabilized around $2,650 per ounce on Tuesday as investors awaited the Federal Reserve's meeting and its 2025 outlook. The Fed is expected to cut rates by 25bps, but uncertainty lingers over future easing, especially amid potential inflation risks under the incoming Trump administration

US data showed stronger private sector growth in December, raising concerns the Fed may limit rate cuts next year, which could weigh on gold. Still, bullion is up 29% this year, its best annual performance since 2010, driven by policy easing, safe-haven demand, and continued central bank purchases.

Technically, the first resistance level will be 2665 level. In case of this level’s breach, the next levels to watch would be 2700 and 2725 consequently. On the downside 2630 will be the first support level. 2600 and 2565 are the next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.

 

[Z Forex]

Daily Analysis by zForex Research Team - 12.18.2024​

Gold Trades Around $2,650 Before Fed Cut ​

Markets remained cautious as the Fed prepared for a widely expected 25bps rate cut.

EUR/USD steadied near 1.05, while the yen weakened to 153.7 on speculation of limited policy changes by the Bank of Japan. Gold held at $2,650, eyeing a 28% annual gain, and silver traded below $30.5 due to weak Chinese demand. The British pound rose above $1.27 following strong wage growth, while US retail sales outperformed, adding to speculation about the Fed’s future policy path.

 

[Z Forex]

EUR/USD Analysis by zForex Research Team - 12.18.2024​

Eurozone Reveals Mixed PMI Data​

The EUR/USD pair is holding steady near 1.05 while the dollar index remained unchanged at about 106.9 on Wednesday as caution prevailed ahead of the Federal Reserve’s expected interest rate cut later in the day. Markets are pricing in a 97% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction, with traders focusing on the updated economic projections and Fed Chair Powell’s remarks after the meeting.

Speculation is growing that the Fed may signal fewer rate cuts for 2025 than previously anticipated, with some expecting a pause as early as January. On the economic front, US retail sales surpassed expectations in November, bolstered by strong consumer spending, while industrial production unexpectedly declined for the third straight month. Meanwhile, investors are also preparing for upcoming monetary policy decisions from the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan this week.

The first resistance level will be 1.0540 level. In case of this level’s breach, the next levels to watch would be 1.0600 and 1.0660. On the downside 1.0450 will be the first support level. 1.0400 and 1.0330 are the next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.

 

[Z Forex]

Gold Analysis by zForex Research Team - 12.18.2024​

Gold Steadies Near $2,650 Ahead of Fed Decision​

Gold held near $2,650 per ounce, staying within a tight trading range ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement later today. While the Fed is widely expected to deliver a 25bps rate cut, traders are focused on clues for next year’s interest rate outlook, amid uncertainty over how the incoming Trump administration’s policies might influence the rate trajectory.

US retail sales exceeded expectations with a 0.7% increase in November, fueling speculation that the Fed might slow down its policy easing. Still, the precious metal has climbed over 28% this year, positioning it for its largest annual gain since 2010, driven by US monetary easing, safe-haven demand, and sustained central bank purchases. Elsewhere, Indian gold imports surged to a record in November following a customs levy cut, with full-year demand from the key consumer expected to rise 7% in 2024, the second-highest since 2015.

The initial resistance is set at the 2665 level. If this level is surpassed, the subsequent levels to observe are 2700 and 2725, respectively. On the downside, the primary support level is 2630. Should this level be broken, the next support levels to keep an eye on are 2600 and 2565.

 

[Z Forex]

Daily Analysis by zForex Research Team - 12.19.2024​

Monetary Policy Divergence Fuels Market Volatility ​

Recently, divergences in monetary policies among major central banks and economic uncertainties have caused volatility in financial markets. The Fed's signal of limited rate cuts strengthened the dollar, putting pressure on other G10 currencies and commodities.

Currencies like the euro, yen, and pound weakened, while gold rose on a technical rebound despite earlier losses. Silver continued its downward trend due to weaker industrial demand, exacerbated by China's overcapacity and monetary easing policies. In Europe and the UK, high inflation and slowing growth challenge central banks, while strong US growth and safe-haven demand strengthen gold.

 

[Z Forex]

Yen Analysis by zForex Research Team - 12.19.2024​

Yen Hits One-Month Low as BOJ Holds Rates Steady​

The Japanese yen fell past 155 per dollar on Thursday, reaching a one-month low after the Bank of Japan left its policy rate unchanged at 0.25%, as widely expected. Now the focus is on BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s post-meeting press conference for insights into the timing of future rate hikes. Prior to the decision, speculation had been growing that the BOJ might hold off on tightening its policy, with policymakers opting to take more time to assess the economic data. Additionally, the yen faced pressure from a strengthening US dollar, after the US Federal Reserve delivered a widely anticipated 25 basis point rate cut on Wednesday but signaled fewer rate reductions in 2025. The Fed now projects only two rate cuts next year, down from the four reductions forecast in September.

The key resistance level appears to be 156.75, with a break above it potentially targeting 158.30 and 160.00. On the downside, 153.90 is the first major support, followed by 152.70 and 151.00 if the price moves lower.

 

[Z Forex]

Pound Analysis by zForex Research Team - 12.19.2024​

Pound Hits One-Month Low Amid Fed’s Hawkish Signals​

The British pound fell to $1.26, testing its lowest in nearly one month and tracking the pressure in other G10 currencies as hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve triggered a sharp rise for the US dollar. The Fed lowered its funds rate by 25bps, as expected, but projected only two rate cuts next year to underscore growing inflation concerns by FOMC members. In turn, the Bank of England is expected to hold its Bank Rate unchanged and continue heeding elevated inflation domestically. The annual inflation rate in the UK rose for a second month to 2.6% in November as expected. The services inflation steadied at 5%, below forecasts of 5.1% but above the BoE's estimate of 4.9%. Early in the week, UK wage growth surpassed expectations.

The first resistance level for the pair will be 1.2600. In case of this level's breach, the next levels to watch would be 1.2645 and 1.2700. On the downside 1.2550 will be the first support level. 1.2500 and 1.2460 are the next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.

 

[Z Forex]

Daily Analysis by zForex Research Team - 12.20.2024​

Gold Struggles with Hawkish Fed and Weak Indian Demand​

The dollar index steadied around 108.4 on Friday, its highest since November 2022, as investors awaited the PCE price index.

Fed Chair Powell noted inflation likely remains above the 2% target following the Fed's 25 basis point rate cut, with fewer cuts expected in 2025. Japan's inflation rose to 2.9% in November, its highest since October 2023, while China's central bank held key lending rates steady for the second month, with the one-year LPR at 3.1%.

 

[Z Forex]

EUR/USD Analysis by zForex Research Team - 12.20.2024​

EUR/USD Edges Lower to 1.0360​

The EUR/USD pair shows a slight downward trend around 1.0360 during the early Asian trading hours on Friday. The pair continues to face pressure as the US Federal Reserve took a less dovish approach, even after reducing interest rates by 25 basis points at its December meeting on Wednesday. Attention will now turn to the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data, set to be released later on Friday.

Technically, the first resistance level will be 1.0400 level. In case of this level’s breach, the next levels to watch would be 1.0460 and 1.0520. On the downside, 1.0335 will be the first support level. 1.0230 and 1.0200 are the next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.

 

[Z Forex]

Gold Analysis by zForex Research Team - 12.20.2024​

Gold's Rally Pauses as Fed Signals Slower Easing​

Gold hovered around $2,600 per ounce on Friday, poised for a weekly decline as a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve weighed on prices. On Wednesday, the Fed indicated a more cautious approach to monetary easing, with its dot plot suggesting only two rate cuts in the coming year. Strong US GDP figures with an upward revision in consumer spending, further reinforced the case for slower easing. This outlook has dampened demand for gold, as limited monetary easing reduces the appeal of non-yielding assets like bullion.

Gold's short-term prospects face headwinds from weakening physical demand in India, where officials expect a substantial drop in gold imports for December. Despite these pressures, gold has gained approximately 25% this year, supported by US monetary easing and robust central bank purchases.

Technically, the first resistance level will be 2625. In case of this level’s breach, the next levels to watch would be 2635 and 2660. On the downside, 2575 will be the first support level. 2530 and 2500 are the next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.