Daily Analysis By FXGlory

[FXGlory]

USD/JPY Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 04.07.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


B]Fundamental Analysis:[/B]
The USD-JPY currency pair is impacted today by critical economic releases from both the United States and Japan. From the U.S. side, the upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler titled "Inflation Dynamics and the Phillips Curve" could trigger volatility, particularly if her comments imply future monetary policy tightening. Additionally, U.S. consumer credit data will provide insights into consumer confidence and financial stability, influencing the strength of the USD. On the Japanese front, the release of Labor Cash Earnings and the Cabinet Office’s composite index will offer clarity on Japan’s economic health, potentially influencing the JPY through market expectations of consumer spending and overall economic conditions.





Price Action:
The USDJPY H4 timeframe has clearly broken the previous key support level, initiating a significant bearish trend. Price action has twice pulled back to retest the broken support line, confirming its role as a new resistance before continuing sharply downward. Despite recent bullish candles, the market gap at the opening signals a strong selling pressure and continued bearish sentiment. If bearish momentum persists, traders should look to Fibonacci extension levels, notably the 161.8% extension, as potential targets for the ongoing downtrend.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: The last two dots appear below the current price, indicating a potential short-term bullish correction after the strong bearish momentum. Traders should monitor closely for a reversal of the indicator dots back above the price as confirmation of renewed selling pressure.
Bollinger Bands: Price recently pierced the lower Bollinger Band, indicating oversold conditions, followed by a corrective bounce back towards the midline. However, the overall widening of the band suggests ongoing volatility and potential continuation of the bearish trend once price approaches resistance areas.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram shows diminishing bearish momentum, signaling a potential short-term bullish correction. Nevertheless, the MACD line remains deeply below the zero line, indicating a prevailing bearish trend. Traders should remain alert to renewed bearish momentum.]RSI (Relative Strength Index):[/B] RSI currently stands at 36.27, recovering slightly from oversold territory. While indicating potential for further upside correction, RSI still emphasizes a prevailing bearish trend, cautioning traders to remain vigilant for resumed downward movement.
%R (Williams Percent Range): The %R indicator currently at -82.11 shows the market is still near oversold levels despite the recent minor upward correction. This highlights the possibility of limited upward corrections before a renewed downward push.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: Immediate significant support is at the recent low around 144.930. Breaking below this could lead to testing the Fibonacci 161.8% extension.
Resistance: Strong resistance is at the previous support-turned-resistance line at approximately 146.290, aligned with recent price action highs and Fibonacci retracement levels.


Conclusion and Consideration:
USD vs. JPY analysis on the H4 chart indicates robust bearish momentum supported by technical indicators despite short-term bullish corrections. Upcoming economic events for both currencies could introduce substantial volatility, affecting the pair’s direction significantly. Traders should be cautious of short-term bullish retracements and closely monitor resistance and support levels for potential breakout opportunities.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/JPY is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDJPY. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
04.07.2025

 

[FXGlory]

NZD/USD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 04.08.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The NZD/USD currency pair is influenced today by two critical economic indicators. From New Zealand, the NZIER Survey of Business Opinion, a leading quarterly indicator of economic sentiment, will offer insights into the nation's business health and could strongly impact the NZD if the data significantly diverges from expectations. For the USD, traders will closely monitor the NFIB Small Business Index and comments by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly regarding future monetary policy signals. Additionally, the weekly American Petroleum Institute (API) inventory report may indirectly affect USD sentiment via shifts in energy prices.


Price Action:
The NZD-USD H4 chart demonstrates a distinct bearish trend, as the pair recently experienced a strong downward movement followed by a mild correction upwards. The price is currently retesting a significant confluence zone, aligning precisely at the 100% Fibonacci retracement level and a horizontal support line, creating a stronger support region. If the correction concludes, price action indicates a potential continuation of the bearish momentum, targeting initially the Fibonacci level at 161.8%.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR points remain positioned above the current candlesticks, clearly confirming ongoing bearish sentiment. This indicator will remain bearish as long as price continues trading below the SAR dots.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Currently at 35.20, the RSI indicator for NZDUSD H4 remains below the neutral 50 mark, indicating bearish momentum and room for further downside before reaching oversold conditions, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram indicates bearish momentum, although bars are beginning to shorten slightly, suggesting reduced bearish pressure in the short term. Traders should monitor for a potential bullish crossover, signaling an upcoming shift in momentum.
Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic currently stands at 33.28, maintaining a bearish crossover, thus supporting ongoing bearish momentum. This indicator suggests that the pair may still have further downward movement potential before reaching oversold levels.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate, strong support at 0.5535-0.5570 region (confluence of 100% Fibonacci level and horizontal support). Further downside target support at Fibonacci 161.8%, around 0.5420.
Resistance: Immediate resistance is located at the 0.5630 level (61.8% Fibonacci retracement), with higher resistance at the 50% Fibonacci level near 0.5680.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The NZD USD H4 technical analysis indicates continued bearish potential following completion of the recent correction. The robust confluence at the current support zone (100% Fibonacci and horizontal support) serves as a critical pivot; a decisive break downward could lead the price to further bearish targets at Fibonacci 161.8%. Fundamental events today will notably influence volatility and direction, particularly the NZIER Survey and US economic data releases. Traders should prepare for volatility spikes and closely observe indicator signals for momentum shifts.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for NZD/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on NZDUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
04.08.2025

 

[FXGlory]

GBP/USD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 04.09.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today’s GBPUSD H4 forecast is influenced by a series of high-impact economic events for both the British Pound and the US Dollar. For the GBP, traders are awaiting the FPC Meeting Minutes and the FPC Statement, which could shed light on the UK’s financial stability outlook and potential policy adjustments by the Bank of England. Any signs of concern or hawkish sentiment could drive significant movement in GBPUSD. On the USD side, a packed economic calendar includes the Final Wholesale Inventories m/m, Crude Oil Inventories, and multiple FOMC-related events, most notably the FOMC Meeting Minutes later today. These will provide key insights into future interest rate trajectories and the Fed’s inflation outlook. The mixed expectations for inventory data and bond auction results may stir volatility, setting the stage for potential breakout movements in GBPUSD.


Price Action:
The GBPUSD pair on the H4 timeframe is currently trading within a well-defined descending channel, but the recent candlesticks show early signs of a bullish reversal. After testing the lower boundary of the channel, price action has started to form higher lows, indicating an attempt by buyers to regain control. A break above the upper boundary of this descending channel would confirm a bullish breakout, potentially opening the path toward the next key resistance levels. Today’s price action shows growing bullish momentum as price begins to lift away from the recent lows.


Key Technical Indicators:
RSI (14): Currently at 43.78, the RSI is climbing upward from oversold territory and signaling early bullish momentum. This suggests increasing buyer interest without entering overbought levels, supporting a potential continuation of the upward move.
MACD (12,26,9): The MACD histogram is contracting, and the MACD line is on the verge of crossing above the signal line, indicating a potential bullish crossover. This momentum shift suggests that the bears may be losing control, and a price increase may be imminent.
Stochastic Oscillator (5,3,3): The Stochastic has already turned bullish and currently shows values around 75.08 and 69.87, confirming a strong bullish bias. However, it is approaching overbought levels, so a short-term pullback could occur before a potential breakout.
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots have shifted below the price line, which is a classic bullish indicator. This reinforces the current upward move and signals the end of the recent bearish wave.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Support levels for GBPUSD on the H4 chart are seen at 1.2675, aligning with the recent swing low and the lower boundary of the descending channel, and at 1.2570, a key psychological level and former demand zone offering additional downside protection.
Resistance: Resistance levels for GBPUSD on the H4 chart are located at 1.2865, marking the upper boundary of the descending channel where a breakout could signal strong bullish continuation, and at 1.3000, a key psychological level and previous high.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The GBP USD H4 technical analysis indicates continued bearish potential following completion of the recent correction. The robust confluence at the current support zone (100% Fibonacci and horizontal support) serves as a critical pivot; a decisive break downward could lead the price to further bearish targets at Fibonacci 161.8%. Fundamental events today will notably influence volatility and direction, particularly the NZIER Survey and US economic data releases. Traders should prepare for volatility spikes and closely observe indicator signals for momentum shifts.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for GBP/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on GBPUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
04.09.2025

 

[FXGlory]

GOLD (XAU/USD) H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 04.10.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Gold prices are heavily influenced by economic data releases and central bank speeches, especially from the US. Today, traders are closely monitoring critical data from the US, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) excluding food and energy, CPI overall, initial jobless claims, and several Federal Reserve members' speeches. A higher-than-expected CPI reading or hawkish comments from Fed officials could strengthen the USD and exert downward pressure on Gold, whereas weaker economic data and dovish comments might boost Gold as a safe-haven asset.


Price Action:
Currently, GOLD H4 analysis shows price breaking the previous support trend line, indicating a bearish shift. The recent bullish movement has retraced to the upper band of the Bollinger Bands, coinciding with the critical 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. A red bearish pin bar confirms selling pressure, suggesting a potential move downward toward the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and possibly lower.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: Gold price touched the upper band and is now showing signs of retracement. The narrowing of bands indicates decreasing volatility, suggesting an upcoming significant price move, likely bearish in the short term.
Parabolic SAR: The dots are currently beneath the price candles, indicating recent bullish momentum. However, the proximity of price action suggests a possible imminent reversal to a bearish stance.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is at 57.21, above the neutral midpoint but not yet at overbought levels, suggesting that there is still room for upward movement, but caution is warranted as momentum may weaken.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD remains below the zero line with decreasing bearish histograms. This indicates diminishing bearish momentum and hints at a potential short-term consolidation or reversal.
%R (Williams Percent Range): Currently at -16.78, signaling that price is near overbought territory and may soon correct downward, aligning with bearish expectations.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: Immediate support at 3052.06 (38.2% Fibonacci), with deeper support seen at 3004.98 (50% Fibonacci).
Resistance: Key resistance at 3095.14 (23.6% Fibonacci), and further strong resistance at the psychological 3122.68 level.


Conclusion and Consideration:
Technical indicators and recent price action analysis on GOLD H4 indicate a bearish pullback scenario in the short term. With price reacting strongly to the Fibonacci and Bollinger Band resistance, the possibility of further downside remains significant. Traders should remain vigilant for today's US economic data and Federal Reserve speakers, as these events could significantly influence volatility and the directional bias of Gold.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for XAU /USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on XAUUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
04.10.2025

 

[FXGlory]

EURUSD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 04.11.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
EUR/USD is expected to experience increased volatility today, influenced by significant economic events. Key speeches from Federal Reserve members, including New York Fed President John Williams and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, could indicate future monetary policy stances, directly impacting the USD. Furthermore, market participants will closely watch the University of Michigan's inflation expectations, consumer sentiment reports, and the US Producer Price Index (PPI). Meanwhile, Eurozone traders will evaluate Germany’s CPI data and anticipate updates from the Eurogroup meetings. These factors will likely play significant roles in shaping EUR/USD price movements today.


Price Action:
The EUR USD H4 price action clearly indicates a bullish breakout. The pair recently broke through the critical daily resistance line and retested it, confirming it as new support. Subsequently, EUR-USD breached the next resistance zone with three solid bullish candles, now serving as immediate support. However, the emergence of a doji and subsequent red candle suggests potential short-term bearish corrections, with the primary target likely the recently established support zone around 1.1110.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: EUR/USD is trading above the upper Bollinger Band, signifying overextension and potential correction or consolidation in the near term. Traders should remain cautious about possible reversals or sideways movement.
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots remain below the current price, indicating ongoing bullish momentum in the EURUSD pair. However, traders should watch for potential reversal signs if SAR dots shift above the price.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): RSI currently stands at 66.98, approaching the overbought level (70). While this supports bullish momentum, the nearing overbought conditions suggest potential for a corrective move soon.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD demonstrates increasing bullish momentum, with the histogram bars expanding above the zero line. This indicates strong buyer presence, yet traders must remain cautious for any bearish divergence forming.
Awesome Oscillator: The Awesome Oscillator indicates bullish strength, as evidenced by growing green bars above the zero line. This supports the bullish scenario but, like other indicators, advises caution for any impending correction.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is located at the recently broken resistance turned support zone around 1.1110, followed by the significant daily level at 1.1094.
Resistance: Current resistance stands at recent highs near 1.1200, with the psychological level of 1.1250 as the next major barrier.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EURUSD pair remains bullish on the H4 chart, supported by multiple technical indicators including Bollinger Bands, MACD, RSI, Parabolic SAR, and the Awesome Oscillator. However, given the current overextended conditions and fundamental factors, traders should prepare for potential corrections toward the immediate support zone at 1.1110. Significant economic announcements and Fed member speeches scheduled for today could lead to heightened volatility, thereby warranting careful risk management.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
04.11.2025